A nested multivariate copula approach to hydrometeorological simulations of spring floods: the case of the Richelieu River (Québec,Canada) record flood

Floods have potentially devastating consequences on populations, industries and environmental systems. They often result from a combination of effects from meteorological, physiographic and anthropogenic natures. The analysis of flood hazards under a multivariate perspective is primordial to evaluate several of the combined factors. This study analyzes spring flood-causing mechanisms in terms of the occurrence, frequency, duration and intensity of precipitation as well as temperature events and their combinations previous to and during floods using frequency analysis as well as a proposed multivariate copula approach along with hydrometeorological indices. This research was initiated over the Richelieu River watershed (Quebec, Canada), with a particular emphasis on the 2011 spring flood, constituting one of the most damaging events over the last century for this region. Although some work has already been conducted to determine certain causes of this record flood, the use of multivariate statistical analysis of hydrologic and meteorological events has not yet been explored. This study proposes a multivariate flood risk model based on fully nested Archimedean Frank and Clayton copulas in a hydrometeorological context. Several combinations of the 2011 Richelieu River flood-causing meteorological factors are determined by estimating joint and conditional return periods with the application of the proposed model in a trivariate case. The effects of the frequency of daily frost/thaw episodes in winter, the cumulative total precipitation fallen between the months of November and March and the 90th percentile of rainfall in spring on peak flow and flood duration are quantified, as these combined factors represent relevant drivers of this 2011 Richelieu River record flood. Multiple plausible and physically founded flood-causing scenarios are also analyzed to quantify various risks of inundation.     

Signature of the 27-day variation in hemispheric sunspot activity and asymmetry during 2010-2015

In the present work,we study the time evolution,significance of the N-S asymmetry excesses presented as a function of the solar cycle and prominent rotational p...     

Population statistics study of radio and gamma-ray pulsars in the Galactic plane

We present results of our pulsar population synthesis of normal and millisecond pulsars in the Galactic plane. Over the past several years, a program has been developed to simulate pulsar birth, evolution and emission using Monte Carlo techniques. We have added to the program the capability to simulate millisecond pulsars, which are old, recycled pulsars with extremely short periods. We model the spatial distribution of the simulated pulsars by assuming that they start with a random kick velocity and then evolve through the Galactic potential. We use a polar cap/slot gap model for γ-ray emission from both millisecond and normal pulsars. From our studies of radio pulsars that have clearly identifiable core and cone components, in which we fit the polarization sweep as well as the pulse profiles in order to constrain the viewing geometry, we develop a model describing the ratio of radio core-to-cone peak fluxes. In this model, short period pulsars are more cone-dominated than in our previous studies. We present the preliminary results of our recent study and the implications for observing these pulsars with GLAST and AGILE.      

Planetary embryos and planetesimals residing in thin debris discs

We consider constraints on the planetesimal population residing in the discs of AU Microscopii (AU Mic), β Pictoris (β Pic) and Fomalhaut taking into account their observed thicknesses and normal disc opacities. We estimate that bodies of radius 5, 180 and 70 km are responsible for initiating the collisional cascade accounting for the dust production for AU Mic, β Pic and Fomalhaut's discs, respectively, at break radii from the star where their surface brightness profiles change slope. Larger bodies, of radius 1000 km and with surface density of the order of 0.01 g cm⁻², are required to explain the thickness of these discs assuming that they are heated by gravitational stirring. A comparison between the densities of the two sizes suggests the size distribution in the largest bodies is flatter than that observed in the Kuiper belt. AU Mic's disc requires the shallowest size distribution for bodies with radius greater than 10 km suggesting that the disc contains planetary embryos experiencing a stage of runaway growth.     

A catalogue of spectral classification and photometric data of B-type stars

The present work represents a catalogue of spectral classification and photometric data of 2047 B type stars using the Q method.     

Spectral reclassification of some Be stars using ΔQ method

The present work shows how the new defined value Q can play a role in spectral reclassification of Be stars.     

Active and break phases of the South American summer monsoon: MJO influence and subseasonal prediction

The role of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) in producing active and break periods of the South American (SA) monsoon and the performance of the ECMWF and NCEP models in predicting these periods at multiweek lead times are assessed. Two monsoon indices, based on precipitation and wind, are proposed to characterize these periods. The models represent well the observed association of active and break monsoon days with large scale convection and circulation anomalies. Although reproducing approximately the distribution of active and break days proportions in each phase of the MJO cycle, models produce a phase shift between observed and simulated distributions because they establish the teleconnection between Central Pacific and South America, as well as its impacts, sooner than in observations. The predictive skill of both rainfall and wind anomalies is limited to about 2 weeks, with the monsoon wind index displaying higher correlation score till week 3. The forecast performance is apparently not affected by initialization on active or break monsoon days. However, it is higher for prediction of lower precipitation in break days than heavier rainfall in active days. Wind is much better predicted than rainfall for active days, which could be used for extreme rainfall events forecast. Although relatively small at shorter lead times, the MJO contribution is the major source of rainfall predictability after week 3. To improve the multiweek prediction of SA monsoon, models need not only to predict correctly the MJO phase, but also to reproduce in the right phase the MJO-related SA rainfall anomalies.

     

On the control of subantarctic stratification by the ocean circulation

Climate Dynamics - A shallow mixed layer depth bias in Austral winter in the Subantarctic Zone is a common feature of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models, including the Community...