Data-Driven Predictive Modeling of Mineral Prospectivity Using Random Forests: A Case Study in Catanduanes Island (Philippines)

The Random Forests (RF) algorithm is a machine learning method that has recently been demonstrated as a viable technique for data-driven predictive modeling of mineral prospectivity, and thus, it is instructive to further examine its usefulness in this particular field. A case study was carried out using data from Catanduanes Island (Philippines) to investigate further (a) if RF modeling can be used for data-driven modeling of mineral prospectivity in areas with few (i.e., <20) mineral occurrences and (b) if RF modeling can handle predictor variables with missing values. We found that RF modeling outperforms evidential belief (EB) modeling of prospectivity for hydrothermal Au–Cu deposits in Catanduanes Island, where 17 hydrothermal Au–Cu prospects are known to exist. Moreover, just like EB modeling, RF modeling allows analysis of the spatial relationships between known prospects and individual layers of predictor data. Furthermore, RF modeling can handle missing values in predictor data through an RF-based imputation technique whereas in EB modeling, missing values are simply represented by maximum uncertainty. Therefore, the RF algorithm is a potentially useful method for data-driven predictive modeling of mineral prospectivity in regions with few (i.e., <20) occurrences of mineral deposits of the type sought. However, further testing of the method in other regions with few mineral occurrences is warranted to fully determine its usefulness in data-driven predictive modeling of mineral prospectivity.     

Do Macroalgal Mats Impact Microphytobenthos on Mudflats? Evidence from a Meta-Analysis,Comparative Survey,and Large-Scale Manipulation

Eutrophication and species introductions have resulted in increased macroalgal biomass in coastal ecosystems around the globe. Macroalgal mats may compete with microphytobenthos (MPB) for light and nutrients and, due to their position in the canopy, have a negative impact on MPB biomass. We tested this effect by conducting a meta-analysis of prior experiments, as well as a comparative survey, and a macroalgal-removal manipulation in the coastal lagoons of the Virginia Coastal Reserve (VCR) on the eastern shore of Virginia (USA). In all cases, MPB biomass was estimated using benthic chlorophyll as a proxy. While prior individual studies documented impacts of macroalgae, when effect sizes were averaged across studies, there was no consistent effect of macroalgal biomass on MPB biomass. In the VCR, a non-native red macroalga, Gracilaria vermiculophylla, dominates intertidal mats and attains high biomasses at some sites. Nevertheless, MPB biomass was unrelated to macroalgal mass based on a survey of mudflats. Further, when macroalgae were experimentally manipulated on a mudflat using a before and after impact design, there was no change in MPB. Based on the meta-analysis, survey, and manipulation we conducted, macroalgal mats do not have a generalizable effect on MPB, interactions seem context-dependent, and in the VCR, the effects on MPB appear neutral. This finding is important given the significance of MPB in supporting food webs and other estuarine ecosystem functions, as well as the increasing frequency and intensity of macroalgal blooms.     

Evidence for centennial-scale Lateglacial and early Holocene climatic complexity from Quoyloo Meadow,Orkney, Scotland

The influence of the North Atlantic on the margins of Europe means the region is particularly sensitive to changes in the ocean–atmospheric system. During the Last Glacial–Interglacial Transition (16–8 cal ka bp ) this system was repeatedly disrupted, leading to a series of abrupt and short-lived shifts in climate. Despite much research, the number and magnitude of these ‘centennial-scale’ events is not well understood. To address this, we expand upon investigations at Quoyloo Meadow, Orkney, Scotland, one of the best chronologically constrained palaeoclimate records in northern Britain. By coupling stable isotope and chironomid fossil analyses with existing data, this study identifies multiple phases of centennial-scale disturbance at: c. 14.0, 11.1, 10.8, 10.5, 10.45 and 10.3 cal ka bp , with the events at 14.0 and 10.3 exhibiting a particularly pronounced cold-climate signature. During the Holocene, the strongest response to climate forcing was at c. 10.3–10.0 cal ka bp , expressed as a two-stage drop in mean July temperatures, a shift in pollen spectra indicative of ‘less-stable’ climatic regimes, and a depletion in δ¹⁸O values. We interpret this as the first reliably dated incidence of the ‘10.3-ka event’ in the British Isles and consider the wider impact of this climatic reversal in other Holocene records.     

Tilting Styx and Nix but not Uranus with a Spin-Precession-Mean-motion resonance

A Hamiltonian model is constructed for the spin axis of a planet perturbed by a nearby planet with both planets in orbit about a star. We expand the planet–planet gravitational potential perturbation to first order in orbital inclinations and eccentricities, finding terms describing spin resonances involving the spin precession rate and the two planetary mean motions. Convergent planetary migration allows the spinning planet to be captured into spin resonance. With initial obliquity near zero, the spin resonance can lift the planet’s obliquity to near 90\(^\circ \) or 180\(^\circ \) depending upon whether the spin resonance is first or zeroth order in inclination. Past capture of Uranus into such a spin resonance could give an alternative non-collisional scenario accounting for Uranus’s high obliquity. However, we find that the time spent in spin resonance must be so long that this scenario cannot be responsible for Uranus’s high obliquity. Our model can be used to study spin resonance in satellite systems. Our Hamiltonian model explains how Styx and Nix can be tilted to high obliquity via outward migration of Charon, a phenomenon previously seen in numerical simulations.     

Monitoring and Verifying Changes of Organic Carbon in Soil

Changes in soil and vegetation management can impact strongly on the rates of carbon (C) accumulation and loss in soil, even over short periods of time. Detecting the effects of such changes in accumulation and loss rates on the amount of C stored in soil presents many challenges. Consideration of the temporal and spatial heterogeneity of soil properties, general environmental conditions, and management history is essential when designing methods for monitoring and projecting changes in soil C stocks. Several approaches and tools will be required to develop reliable estimates of changes in soil C at scales ranging from the individual experimental plot to whole regional and national inventories. In this paper we present an overview of soil properties and processes that must be considered. We classify the methods for determining soil C changes as direct or indirect. Direct methods include field and laboratory measurements of total C, various physical and chemical fractions, and C isotopes. A promising direct method is eddy covariance measurement of CO₂ fluxes. Indirect methods include simple and stratified accounting, use of environmental and topographic relationships, and modeling approaches. We present a conceptual plan for monitoring soil C changes at regional scales that can be readily implemented. Finally, we anticipate significant improvements in soil C monitoring with the advent of instruments capable of direct and precise measurements in the field as well as methods for interpreting and extrapolating spatial and temporal information.     

The total number of giant planets in debris discs with central clearings

Infrared spectra from the Spitzer Space Telescope ( SSC ) of many debris discs are well fit with a single blackbody temperature which suggest clearings within the disc. We assume that clearings are caused by orbital instability in multiple planet systems with similar configurations to our own. These planets remove dust-generating planetesimal belts as well as dust generated by the outer disc that is scattered or drifts into the clearing. From numerical integrations, we estimate a minimum planet spacing required for orbital instability (and so planetesimal and dust removal) as a function of system age and planet mass. We estimate that a 10⁸ yr old debris disc with a dust disc edge at a radius of 50 au hosted by an A star must contain approximately five Neptune mass planets between the clearing radius and the iceline in order to remove all primordial objects within it. We infer that known debris disc systems contain at least a fifth of a Jupiter mass in massive planets. The number of planets and spacing required is insensitive to the assumed planet mass. However, an order of magnitude higher total mass in planets could reside in these systems if the planets are more massive.     

Efficacy of a multi-metric fish index as an analysis tool for the transitional fish component of the Water Framework Directive

The WFD has introduced an international commitment to assess the ecological status of transitional waters (TWs), within which fish communities are a key biological monitoring component. The Transitional Fish Classification Index (TFCI) outlined in this paper uses 10 ecological measures to analyse fish populations caught from various ecological niches using a variety of gear types within the Thames estuary. These reach and method-specific communities are then compared to a reference population created from a 'healthy' population from TWs of a similar type. The results indicate a progressive downstream increase the quality of fish communities, consistent with previous work; variation between methods can be accounted for by gear selectivity. Overall, the TFCI is an effective communication tool for converting ecological information into an easily understood format for managers, policy makers and the general public.     

Arecibo radar observations of Phobos and Deimos

In November 2005, we observed the moons of Mars using the Arecibo 2380-MHz (13-cm) radar, obtaining a result for the OC radar albedo of Phobos (0.056±0.014) consistent with its previously reported radar albedo and implying an upper bound on its near-surface bulk density of . We detected Deimos by radar for the first time, finding its OC radar albedo to be 0.021±0.006, implying an upper bound on its near-surface density of , consistent with a high-porosity regolith. We briefly discuss reasons for these low radar albedos, Deimos' being possibly the lowest of any Solar System body yet observed by radar.     

Late Tertiary tectonic evolution of northern Iran: A case for simple crustal folding

Here we present a crustal folding or buckling mechanism to explain the rootless 3–5 km high Alborz Mountains in northern Iran as well as  10 km of Late Miocene to recent subsidence in the south Caspian basin and  3–6 km of subsidence in the central Iranian basin in the context of the middle Miocene to recent Arabia–Eurasia collision. A key element of the mechanism is the presence of lateral and vertical lithospheric strength contrasts between the north Iranian continental and south Caspian oceanic crusts: when compression from the collision is applied across the region, the strong south Caspian oceanic crust, buried under > 10 km of premiddle Miocene sediment, interacts with the bottom of the mechanically strong continental upper crust of northern Iran, resulting in upward buckling of the continental crust and downward buckling of the oceanic crust. We test this mechanism using a finite-element numerical model with a Maxwell rheology and obtain results that are consistent with the geological and geophysical observations. The observations compiled here and the model results demonstrate the potential for using this region as a natural laboratory for studying the early stages of continent–oceanic collision, including processes like basin inversion, fault localization and, potentially, subduction initiation.