What Can be Expected from the GRACE-FO Laser Ranging Interferometer for Earth Science Applications?

The primary objective of the gravity recovery and climate experiment follow-on (GRACE-FO) satellite mission, due for launch in August 2017, is to continue the GRACE time series of global monthly gravity field models. For this, evolved versions of the GRACE microwave instrument, GPS receiver, and accelerometer will be used. A secondary objective is to demonstrate the effectiveness of a laser ranging interferometer (LRI) in improving the satellite-to-satellite tracking measurement performance. In order to investigate the expected enhancement for Earth science applications, we have performed a full-scale simulation over the nominal mission lifetime of 5 years using a realistic orbit scenario and error assumptions both for instrument and background model errors. Unfiltered differences between the synthetic input and the finally recovered time-variable monthly gravity models show notable improvements with the LRI, on a global scale, of the order of 23 %. The gain is realized for wavelengths smaller than 240 km in case of Gaussian filtering but decreases to just a few percent when anisotropic filtering is applied. This is also confirmed for some typical regional Earth science applications which show randomly distributed patterns of small improvements but also degradations when using DDK4-filtered LRI-based models. Analysis of applied error models indicates that accelerometer noise followed by ocean tide and non-tidal mass variation errors are the main contributors to the overall GRACE-FO gravity model error. Improvements in these fields are therefore necessary, besides optimized constellations, to make use of the increased LRI accuracy and to significantly improve gravity field models from next-generation gravity missions.     

Effect of snow cover on pan-Arctic permafrost thermal regimes

This study quantitatively evaluated how insulation by snow depth (SND) affected the soil thermal regime and permafrost degradation in the pan-Arctic area, and more generally defined the characteristics of soil temperature (T_SOIL) and SND from 1901 to 2009. This was achieved through experiments performed with the land surface model CHANGE to assess sensitivity to winter precipitation as well as air temperature. Simulated T_SOIL, active layer thickness (ALT), SND, and snow density were generally comparable with in situ or satellite observations at large scales and over long periods. Northernmost regions had snow that remained relatively stable and in a thicker state during the past four decades, generating greater increases in T_SOIL. Changes in snow cover have led to changes in the thermal state of the underlying soil, which is strongly dependent on both the magnitude and the timing of changes in snowfall. Simulations of the period 2001–2009 revealed significant differences in the extent of near-surface permafrost, reflecting differences in the model’s treatment of meteorology and the soil bottom boundary. Permafrost loss was greater when SND increased in autumn rather than in winter, due to insulation of the soil resulting from early cooling. Simulations revealed that T_SOIL tended to increase over most of the pan-Arctic from 1901 to 2009, and that this increase was significant in northern regions, especially in northeastern Siberia where SND is responsible for 50 % or more of the changes in T_SOIL at a depth of 3.6 m. In the same region, ALT also increased at a rate of approximately 2.3 cm per decade. The most sensitive response of ALT to changes in SND appeared in the southern boundary regions of permafrost, in contrast to permafrost temperatures within the 60°N–80°N region, which were more sensitive to changes in snow cover. Finally, our model suggests that snow cover contributes to the warming of permafrost in northern regions and could play a more important role under conditions of future Arctic warming.     

Estimating the Probable Maximum Precipitation by Physical Methods Using Satellite and Radiolocation Observation Data: Case Study of the Middle Urals

Water Resources - The study considers the methods for evaluating the maximal possible daily storm rainfall (MPR) in the Middle Ural based on a combination of ground, aerological, satellite, and...     

Sediment routing in the Zagros foreland basin: Drainage reorganization and a shift from axial to transverse sediment dispersal in the Kurdistan region of Iraq

In the northwestern sector of the Zagros foreland basin, axial fluvial systems initially delivered fine-grained sediments from northwestern source regions into a contiguous basin, and later transverse fluvial systems delivered coarse-grained sediments from northeastern sources into a structurally partitioned basin by fold-thrust deformation. Here we integrate sedimentologic, stratigraphic, palaeomagnetic and geochronologic data from the northwestern Zagros foreland basin to define the Neogene history of deposition and sediment routing in response to progressive advance of the Zagros fold-thrust belt. This study constrains the depositional environments, timing of deposition and provenance of nonmarine clastic deposits of the Injana (Upper Fars), Mukdadiya (Lower Bakhtiari) and Bai-Hasan (Upper Bakhtiari) Formations in the Kurdistan region of Iraq. Sediments of the Injana Formation (~12.4–7.75 Ma) were transported axially (orogen-parallel) from northwest to southeast by meandering and low-sinuosity channel belt system. In contrast, during deposition of the Mukdadiya Formation (~7.75–5 Ma), sediments were delivered transversely (orogen-perpendicular) from northeast to southwest by braided and low-sinuosity channel belt system in distributive fluvial megafans. By ~5 Ma, the northwestern Zagros foreland basin became partitioned by growth of the Mountain Front Flexure and considerable gravel was introduced in localized alluvial fans derived from growing topographic highs. Foredeep accumulation rates during deposition of the Injana, Mukdadiya and Bai-Hasan Formations averaged 350, 400 and 600 m/Myr respectively, suggesting accelerated accommodation generation in a rapidly subsiding basin governed by flexural subsidence. Detrital zircon U-Pb age spectra show that in addition to sources of Mesozoic-Cenozoic cover strata, the Injana Formation was derived chiefly from Palaeozoic-Precambrian (including Carboniferous and latest Neoproterozoic) strata in an axial position to the northwest, likely from the Bitlis-Puturge Massif and broader Eastern Anatolia. In contrast, the Mukdadiya and Bai-Hasan Formations yield distinctive Palaeogene U-Pb age peaks, particularly in the southeastern sector of the study region, consistent with transverse delivery from the arc-related terranes of the Walash and Naopurdan volcano-sedimentary groups (Gaveh-Rud domain?) and Urumieh-Dokhtar magmatic arc to the northeast. These temporal and spatial variations in stratigraphic framework, depositional environments, sediment routing and compositional provenance reveal a major drainage reorganization during Neogene shortening in the Zagros fold-thrust belt. Whereas axial fluvial systems initially dominated the foreland basin during early orogenesis in the Kurdistan region of Iraq, transverse fluvial systems were subsequently established and delivered major sediment volumes to the foreland as a consequence of the abrupt deformation advance and associated topographic growth in the Zagros.     

黄、渤海冷空气海浪场的集合预报试验

利用欧洲集合天气预报系统51个预报风场驱动SWAN海浪模式,对黄、渤海2013年12月-2014年2月期间受冷空气影响的海浪场进行数值模拟试验,并利用浮标观测资料对海浪集合预报结果进行初步检验分析,结果显示:从逐时平均偏差结果可知,24h预报时效内集合平均与控制预报性能相近,48~72h预报时效内,集合平均明显优于控制预报,但均比实况偏小;集合分位值(75、90百分位值和极端值)明显优于集合平均,且预报时效越长,优势越明显,集合预报极端值与实况相当或略偏大;从逐24h平均偏差结果可知,集合分位值(75、90百分位值和极端值)比集合平均和控制预报更接近实况。总的分析表明:集合分位值(75、90百分位值和极端值)对受冷空气影响的海浪场具有较强的分辨能力,可以提高对海浪场的预报水平,且有较好的应用潜力。     

Use of the population potential model for predicting the growth of cities in a region (with reference to Moscow Oblast)

"A modification of the population potential model is used to analyze the structure of the potential of population for cities of the Moscow region, to develop a relationship between population potential and city size, and to use this procedure to forecast future population change in Moscow Oblast cities." Cities in the region with a population of 50,000 or more at the censuses of 1959, 1970, and 1979 are included.     

Possible climate change/variability and human impacts,vulnerability of drought-prone regions,water resources and capacity building for Africa

ABSTRACT

This review article discusses the climate, water resources and historical droughts of Africa, drought indices, vulnerability, impact of global warming and land use for drought-prone regions in West, southern and the Greater Horn of Africa, which have suffered recurrent severe droughts in the past. Recent studies detected warming and drying trends in Africa since the mid 20th century. Based on the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), both northern and southern Africa are projected to experience drying, such as decreasing precipitation, runoff and soil moisture in the 21st century and could become more vulnerable to the impact of droughts. The daily maximum temperature is projected to increase by up to 8°C (RCP8.5 of CMIP5), precipitation indices such as total wet day precipitation (PRCPTOT) and heavy precipitation days (R10 mm) could decrease, while warm spell duration (WSDI) and consecutive dry days (CDD) could increase. Uncertainties of the above long-term projections, teleconnections to climate anomalies such as ENSO and the Madden-Julian Oscillation, which could also affect the water resources of Africa, and capacity building in terms of physical infrastructure and non-structural solutions are also discussed. Given that traditional climate and hydrological data observed in Africa are generally limited, satellite data should also be exploited to fill the data gap for Africa in the future.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor N. Ilich     

An enhanced constitutive model for crushable granular materials

Studies in the past have tried to reproduce the mechanical behaviour of granular materials by proposing constitutive relations based on a common assumption that model parameters and parameters describing the properties, including gradation of individual grains are inevitably linked. However successful these models have proved to be, they cannot account for the changes in granular assembly behaviour if the grains start to break during mechanical loading. This paper proposes to analyse the relation between grading change and the mechanical behaviour of granular assembly. A way to model the influence of grain breakage is to use a critical state‐based model. The influence of the amount of grain breakage during loading, depending on the individual grain strength and size distribution, can be introduced into constitutive relations by means of a new parameter that controls the evolution of critical state with changes in grain size distribution. Experimental data from a calcareous sand, a quartz sand, and a rockfill material were compared with numerical results and good‐quality simulations were obtained. The main consequences of grain breakage are increased compressibility and a gradual dilatancy disappearance in the granular material. The critical state concept is also enriched by considering its overall relation to the evolution of the granular material. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Petrographische und Kalium-Argon-Untersuchungen an basischen tertiären Vulkaniten zwischen Westerwald und Vogelsberg

Between the upper tertiary volcanic areas of Westerwald and Vogelsberg (central Western Germany) occur more than 40 isolated tertiary volcanic dikes, eroded necks, plugs and domes. Twelve of these volcanic rocks have been investigated petrographically and chemically and classified by means of their modal and chemical composition. Additional modal analyses have been performed on seven other volcanics. On seventeen volcanic occurences K-Ar-whole rock age determinations have been made. The K-Ar age determinations yield- with the exception of an olivine-nephelinite — values between 27 and 15 Ma. Regarding the known intervals of volcanic activities of the Westerwald- and Voge1sberg-areas, most of the examined volcanics can be related genetically with one of the adjacent volcanic areas. There seems to be no geographical overlapping of volcanics showing Westerwaldages and Vogelsberg-ages. A possible influence of excess-Ar-bearing phases (e. g. mantle xenoliths) and an Ar-loss of constituent matter of the groundmass have been estimated by additional age determinations of enriched samples. These influences — partially compensating each other — may shift the K-Ar whole rock age to a maximum of 5 % and thus do not exceed the dimension of the standard deviations. A distinct NNE-SSW-striking fault in the region between Marburg and Gießen is situated parallel with the eastern border of the “Rheinisches Schiefergebirge”. Volcanics showing Westerwald-age and Vogelsberg-age respectively reach this fault, but obviously do not overlap it. Relations between rock-type an rock age, as it has been observed for the volcanics of the northern Hessian Depression (Kreuzer et al. 1973;Wedepohl 1982) cannot be proved certainly. On the other hand, similar to the basaltic rocks of the northern Hessian Depression, the youngest volcanic product is an olivine-nephelinite (9 Ma).     

Geophysical exploration for interlayer slip breccia gold deposits: example from Pengjiakuang gold deposit, Shandong Province, China

Interlayer slipping breccia‐type gold deposit – a new type of gold deposit, defined recently in the northern margin of the Jiaolai Basin, Shandong Province, China – occurs in interlayer slip faults distributed along the basin margin. It has the features of large orebody thickness (ranging from 14 m to 46 m, with an average thickness of 30 m), shallow embedding (0–50 m thickness of cover), low tenor of gold ore (ranging from 3 g/t to 5 g/t), easy mining and ore dressing. This type of gold deposit has promising metallogenic forecasting and potential for economic exploitation. A ground gamma‐ray survey in the Pengjiakuang gold‐ore district indicates that the potassium/thorium ratio is closely related to the mineralization intensity, i.e. the larger the potassium/thorium ratio, the higher the mineralization. The gold mineralized alteration zone was defined by a potassium/thorium ratio of 0.35. A seismic survey confirms the location of the top and bottom boundaries and images various features within the Pengjiakuang gold mineralization belt. The gold‐bearing shovel slipped belt dips to the south at an angle of 50–55° at the surface and 15–20° at depth. The seismic profile is interpreted in terms of a structural band on the seismic section characterized by a three‐layered model. The upper layer is represented by weakly discontinuous reflections that represent the overlying conglomerates. A zone of stronger reflections representing the interlayer slip fault (gold‐bearing mineralized zone) is imaged within the middle of the section, while the strongest reflections are in the lower part of the section and represent metamorphic rocks at depth. At the same time, the seismic reflection survey confirms the existence of a granite body at depth, indicating that ore‐forming fluids may be related to the granite. A CSAMT survey showed that the gold‐bearing mineralized zone is a conductive layer and contains a low‐resistivity anomaly ranging from 2 Ωm to 200 Ωm.