Statistical evaluation and probabilistic modeling of aftershock sequences of Iranian plateau

The present research focuses on the statistical evaluation of Iranian plateau aftershocks from an engineering perspective and presents probabilistic models applicable for generating random earthquake scenarios. Accordingly, a comprehensive earthquake data catalog including the period from 1964 to 2016 is prepared. Data are declustered into 37 separate mainshock-aftershock sequences by considering the completeness moment magnitude of the database. The well-known modified Omori occurrence rate formula is adopted to determine the recurrence time of the events, considering the effect of secondary aftershocks. In addition to computing the probability density functions of the parameters of the Omori formula, the joint probability distribution of the aftershock occurrence versus magnitude and occurrence time is obtained for modeling their magnitude sequences. The obtained results are applicable for producing randomly generated mainshock-aftershock scenarios.     

Uncertainty analysis of urban sewer system using spatial simulation of radar rainfall fields: New York City case study

The goal of this study is to investigate the uncertainty of an urban sewer system’s response under various rainfall and infrastructure scenarios by applying a recently developed nonparametric copula-based simulation approach to extreme rainfall fields. The approach allows for Monte Carlo simulation of multiple variables with differing marginal distributions and arbitrary dependence structure. The independent and identically distributed daily extreme rainfall events of the corresponding urban area, extracted from nationwide high resolution radar data stage IV, are the inputs of the spatial simulator. The simulated extreme rainfall fields were used to calculate excess runoff using the Natural Resources Conservation Service’s approach. New York City is selected as a case study and the results highlight the importance of preserving the spatial dependence of rainfall fields between the grids, even for simplified hydrologic models. This study estimates the probability of combined sewer overflows under extreme rainfall events and identifies the most effective locations in New York City to install green infrastructure for detaining excess stormwater runoff. The results of this study are beneficial for planners working on stormwater management and the approach is broadly applicable because it does not rely on extensive sewer system information.     

Seismic fragility functions for code compliant and non-compliant RC SMRF structures in Pakistan

Fragility functions are derived for low-rise code compliant & non-compliant special moment resisting frames (SMRFs). Non-compliant SMRFs those built in low strength concrete and lacking confining ties in joint panel zones, commonly found in developing countries. Shake table tests were performed on single-storey and two-storey 1:3 reduced scale representative frames to understand the damage mechanism and develop deformation-based damage scale. The non-compliant SMRF experienced column flexure cracking, longitudinal bar-slip in beam and observed with cover concrete spalling from the joint panels. The code compliant SMRF experienced flexure cracks in beam/column, and experienced joint cracking under extreme shaking. Numerical modeling technique is developed for inelastic modeling of reinforced concrete frame with beam bar-slip and joint damageability using SeismoStruct. Natural accelerograms were used to analyze the considered frames through incremental dynamic analyses in SeismoStruct. A probabilistic based approach was used to derive fragility functions for the considered frames. An example case study is presented for damageability evaluation of structures for earthquakes of various return periods (43, 72, 475, 2475 years).     

Lineaments in the Shamakhy–Gobustan and Absheron hydrocarbon containing areas using gravity data

In this study, we purposed to investigate the edge of geostructures and position of existing faults of the Shamakhy–Gobustan and Absheron hydrocarbon containing regions in Azerbaijan. For this purpose, the horizontal gradient, analytic signal, tilt angle, and hyperbolic of tilt angle methods were applied to the first vertical derivative of gravity data instead of Bouguer gravity data. We obtained the maps that show the previous lineaments which were designated by considering the maximum contours of horizontal gradient, analytic signal maps, and zero values of tilt angle, hyperbolic of tilt angle maps. The geometry of basement interface was also modeled utilizing the Parker–Oldenburg algorithm to understand the sediment thickness and coherency or incoherency between the gravity values and basement topography. The lineaments were held a candle to most current tectonic structure map of the study area. It was seen that the techniques used in this study are very effective to determine the old and new lineaments in the Shamakhy–Gobustan and Absheron regions. The epicenter distribution of earthquakes within the study area supports the new lineaments which are extracted by our interpretation. We concluded that better comprehension of Azerbaijan geostructures and its effect on the large scale works will be provided by means of this study.     

Factors associated with unnecessary requests for an ambulance by non-traumatic patients after the acute earthquake responding phase: a qualitative content analysis

The pre-hospital emergency staff played a key role in transferring the injured patients to health centers. Usually, they reported changes in their decisions on the transfer of non-traumatic patients to hospitals. So, this study was aimed to explore the reasons for unnecessarily requesting an ambulance by non-traumatic patients after the acute responding-to-earthquake phase. This study was a qualitative study that data were analyzed by content analysis approach. Participants were eleven pre-hospital emergency technicians. Data were collected by three sessions of focus group discussion. Data analysis was led to emergence of a main theme: “feeling urgency due to turmoil and uncertainty.” This theme illustrates the basic approach of the inhabitants of the earthquake-stricken region when unnecessarily requesting an ambulance. This theme was derived from two main categories of “turbulent and uncertain conditions” and “psychological turmoil.” The category of “turbulent and uncertain conditions” was comprised of three subcategories: “unreliable care,” “inadequate facilities” and “turbulent living conditions.” The category of “psychological turmoil” was comprised of three subcategories: “psychological turmoil in survivors,” “healthcare providers deciding under pressure” and “turmoil in providing psychological and psychiatric services.” Ambulance dispatch may be unnecessarily performed owing to turbulent and unsure conditions and psychological turmoil in earthquake-stricken people and pre-hospital emergency staff. Providing earthquake-stricken people with psycho-medical services in their place of residence can significantly reduce the workload of pre-hospital emergency staff and consequently that of hospital staff and therefore save time and treatment costs and increase the quality of health services provided for the injured.

     

Automatic urban building boundary extraction from high resolution aerial images using an innovative model of active contours

To present a new method for building boundary detection and extraction based on the active contour model, is the main objective of this research. Classical models of this type are associated with several shortcomings; they require extensive initialization, they are sensitive to noise, and adjustment issues often become problematic with complex images. In this research a new model of active contours has been proposed that is optimized for the automatic building extraction. This new active contour model, in comparison to the classical ones, can detect and extract the building boundaries more accurately, and is capable of avoiding detection of the boundaries of features in the neighborhood of buildings such as streets and trees. Finally, the detected building boundaries are generalized to obtain a regular shape for building boundaries. Tests with our proposed model demonstrate excellent accuracy in terms of building boundary extraction. However, due to the radiometric similarity between building roofs and the image background, our system fails to recognize a few buildings.     

Flood risk perception and its determinants among rural households in two communities in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa,Pakistan

Natural Hazards - Risk perception plays a vital part in flood risk management and mitigation strategies. Therefore, this study aims at first to measure the risk perception of the vulnerable...     

Quantitative Analysis and Efficiency Assessment of Floodwater Harvesting System in Arid Region: Case of Touzouz ephemeral stream—Mzab Valley

Water Resources - The Mzab Valley is characterized by an arid climate with limited amounts of rainfall. In the context of water scarcity, the Mzab water management system recovers floodwater for...     

Relative quantification of wind erosion in argan woodlands in the Souss Basin,Morocco

The endemic argan woodlands cover large parts of South Morocco and create a characteristic landscape with areas of sparsely vegetated and bare soil surfaces between single trees. This unique ecosystem has been under extensive agrosilvopastoral management for centuries and is now at risk of degradation caused by overgrazing and increasing scarcity and variability of rainfall. To investigate susceptibility to wind erosion, we conducted an experimental–empirical study including wind tunnel tests and a drone-generated digital elevation model and quantified wind-erodible material on five different associated surface types by means of sediment catchers. The highest emission flux was measured on freshly ploughed surfaces (1875 g m^–2 h^–1), while older ploughed areas with a re-established crust produced a much lower emission flux (795 g m^–2 h^–1). Extensive tillage may have been a sustainable practice for generations, but increasing drought and uncertainty of rainfall now lead to an acute risk of severe soil erosion and dust production. The typical crusted surfaces characterized by residual rock fragment accumulation and wash processes produced the second highest emission flux (1,354 g m^–2 h^–1). Material collected from tree-shaded areas (933 g m^–2 h^–1) was revealed to be a considerable source of organic material, possibly affecting substrate conditions positively on a larger regional scale. The lowest flux was measured on rock fragment-covered surfaces (301 g m^–2 h^–1). The data show that open argan woodland may be a considerable source for wind erosion and dust production, depending on surface characteristics strongly related to management. An adapted management must include the conservation of argan trees to offer a promising approach to prevent severe wind erosion and dust production and mitigate possible impacts of land-use change and climate change related shifts in wind and rainfall patterns. © 2020 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd