Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system coupled with shuffled frog leaping algorithm for predicting river streamflow time series

ABSTRACT

Accurate runoff forecasting plays a key role in catchment water management and water resources system planning. To improve the prediction accuracy, one needs to strive to develop a reliable and accurate forecasting model for streamflow. In this study, the novel combination of the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) model with the shuffled frog-leaping algorithm (SFLA) is proposed. Historical streamflow data of two different rivers were collected to examine the performance of the proposed model. To evaluate the performance of the proposed ANFIS-SFLA model, six different scenarios for the model input–output architecture were investigated. The results show that the proposed ANFIS-SFLA model (R² = 0.88; NS = 0.88; RMSE = 142.30 (m³/s); MAE = 88.94 (m³/s); MAPE = 35.19%) significantly improved the forecasting accuracy and outperformed the classic ANFIS model (R² = 0.83; NS = 0.83; RMSE = 167.81; MAE = 115.83 (m³/s); MAPE = 45.97%). The proposed model could be generalized and applied in different rivers worldwide.     

Factors affecting seasonal patterns in epilimnion zooplankton community in one of the largest man-made lakes in Africa (Lake Nasser, Egypt)

The objective of the study was to determine which factors regulate zooplankton organisms along Lake Nasser. Temperature, pH, DO, conductivity, turbidity, nutrients, and zooplankton abundance were measured. Twenty-three species of zooplankton were recorded in Lake Nasser included in Copepoda, Cladocera and Rotifera. Copepoda represented the main bulk of the community. The lowest standing stock of zooplankton was noticed during spring due to the highest fish predation during this season associated with the lowest turbidity. Big difference in temperature in Lake Nasser along the year round is considered as a controlling factor related to range of tolerance of species. The oscillation of the lake water level and the different factors affect the standing stock of zooplankton in the lake. Thus, continuous monitoring of Lake Nasser biota should be undertaken to follow the changes in the ecosystem.     

Organic Material and Trace Elements of Bituminous Rocks in the Ozank(?)y Field,Ankara,Turkey

Bituminous rocks in the Ozank(?)y(Ankara) field are different from those of the Paleocene- Eocene Mengen and Güineytepe(Bolu) regions in metal enrichment levels.Organic carbon(C_(org)) content of organic material-rich rocks in the Ozank(?)y(Ankara) field is 3.66-40.72% wt averaging 14.34%.The dominant organic materials are algae/amorphous accompanied by minor amount of herbaceous material(The dominant kerogen type is Type-Ⅰwith a limited amount of Type-Ⅱkerogen.). The bituminous rocks in the Ozank(?)y field are enriched in heavy metals such as Ni,Mn,As and Cr.In comparison with the average enrichment values of elements,Ni,Mn,As and Cr in bituminous shales of the Ozank(?)y field are as about 4.38,14.93,10.90 and 5.58 times as average values.The average concentrations of these heavy metals are also as high as 215×10~(-6),828×10~(-6),58.54×10~(-6),and 148×10~(-6) respectively.In addition,sorption properties of clay and organic materials are also important for metal enrichments in the bituminous shales.     

Toward an Ecological Explanation of Agricultural Unemployment in Bangladesh

Cultural ecology theoretical framework was found suitable to explain unemployment in agriculture in three villages in Bangladesh. Path analysis and multiple regression statistics were used to examine the direct, indirect, and total effects of eight independent human, social, environmental, and technology variables as well as their aggregate contribution on agricultural unemployment. The multiple regression model explains 86.2% of the total variation in unemployment in agriculture; they were followed by environmental constraints and labor saving technology variables.     

The depositional environment of Mauddud limestone,Greater Burgan oil field,Kuwait

Six microfacies are defined on quantitative petrographic data in a carbonate/clastic sequence from the subsurface, oil producing Mauddud Formation of early Middle Cretaceous age. These are, in descending order of importance and abundance: (1) biomicritic wackestone-packstone, (2) argillaceous mudstone, (3) micritic mudstone, (4) glauconitic sandstone, (5)Orhitolina pelsparitic grainstone, and (6) argillaceous dolomite.Sedimentation took place during a marine transgression onto a very shallow, intertidal, restricted marine shelf lagoons. Facies variations appear to be related to depth and energy changes and proximity to areas of clastic deposition. These changes may have been controlled by slight tectonic events in the hinterland and changes in the rate of basin subsidence.

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Zusammenfassung Auf der Grundlage quantitativer petrographischer Daten werden sechs Mikrofazies in einer karbonat/klastischen Folge aus der unter der ErdoberflÄche liegenden, ölliefernden Mauddud-Formation der frühen Mittelkreide definiert. In absteigender Reihenfolge der Bedeutung und HÄufigkeit sind dieses: (1) biomikritischer wackestone-packstone, (2) toniger Schlickstein, (3) unkritischer Schlickstein, (4) glaukonitischer Sandstein, (5) Orbitolina-führender pelsparitischer Grainstone und (6) toniger Dolomit.Die Sedimentation erfolgte wÄhrend einer marinen Transgression auf sehr flache, intertidale Lagunen eines begrenzten marinen Schelfs. Die Fazies-Variationen scheinen mit den Wechseln in Wassertiefe und Energie sowie der mit NÄhe von Gebieten mit klastischer Sedimentation zusammenzuhÄngen.Diese Wechsel könnten durch kleinere tektonische Ereignisse im Hinterland und durch VerÄnderungen der Absenkungsrate des Beckens ausgelöst worden sein.

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Résumé Des données pétrographiques quantitatives permettent de définir six microfacies dans une série clasto-carbonatée d'âge crétacé inférieur du sous-sol de la région pé trolifère de Mauddud. Ce sont par ordre décroissant d'importance et d'abondance: (1) des wacstones-pacstone biomicritiques; (2) des argilites; (3) des argilites micritiques; (4) des grès glauconitiques; (5) des grainstone pelsparitiques à orbitolines; (6) des dolomies argileuses.La sédimentation se produisit au cours d'une transgression marine dans des lagunes très plates, intercotidales, d'une plate-forme continentale de faible étendue. Les variations de facies semblent Être dues à des changements de profondeur et d'énergie, ainsi qu'à la proximité de régions à sédimentation clastique.Ces changements pourraient résulter de légers mouvements tectoniques dans l'arrière-pays et de variations dans le degré de subsidence du bassin de sédimentation.

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The utility of cluster analysis in determining sedimentary facies

Data on 12 variables in 98 thin sections from 150 carbonate core samples of the Mauddud Formation (early Middle Cretaceous) in 13 well locations distributed throughout the Greater Burgan Oil Field, Kuwait, are re-examined using two correlation coefficients, distance similarity and product-moment, for data comparison and the weighted-pair group clustering technique with simple arithmatic averages for clustering of coefficients. The analysis shows results compatible with those obtained with subjective appraisal of the same data. The method can be utilized for sedimentary microfacies recognition and can be profitably applied in frontier areas where data are limited.     

The factors controlling the distribution of carbonate content in Kuwait Bay sediments

The present study has been undertaken to determine the nature and the factors controlling the distribution of carbonate content in Kuwait Bay sediments. The carbonate content that may be deposited with Kuwait Bay sediments is attributed to the interplay of the deposits fallout from the dust storms over Kuwaiti territory, the deposits carried in suspension by the currents from Shatt Al-Arab area and to the skeletal parts of microorganisms that may be originated in the sediments. The carbonate content increases in the coarse sediments rather than in the fine sediments. The mineral components of the carbonate present are in the form of calcite, aragonite and some dolomite. Therefore, the texture of the sediments, the rate of deposition in addition to the biological interference may exert a considerable control over carbonate distribution.     

Possible Impacts of Climate Change on Soil Moisture Availability in the Southeast Anatolia Development Project Region (GAP): An Analysis from an Agricultural Drought Perspective

This paper presents probable effects of climate change on soil moisture availability in the Southeast Anatolia Development Project (GAP) region of Turkey. A series of hypothetical climate change scenarios and GCM-generated IPCC Business-as-Usual scenario estimates of temperature and precipitation changes were used to examine implications of climate change for seasonal changes in actual evapotranspiration, soil moisture deficit, and soil moisture surplus in 13 subregions of the GAP. Of particular importance are predicted patterns of enhancement in summer soil moisture deficit that are consistent across the region in all scenarios. Least effect of the projected warming on the soil moisture deficit enhancement is observed with the IPCC estimates. The projected temperature changes would be responsible for a great portion of the enhancement in summer deficits in the GAP region. The increase in precipitation had less effect on depletion rate of soil moisture when the temperatures increase. Particularly southern and southeastern parts of the region will suffer severe moisture shortages during summer. Winter surplus decreased in scenarios with increased temperature and decreased precipitation in most cases. Even when precipitation was not changed, total annual surplus decreased by 4 percent to 43 percent for a 2°C warming and by 8 percent to 91 percent for a 4°C warming. These hydrologic results may have significant implications for water availability in the GAP as the present project evaluations lack climate change analysis. Adaptation strategies – such as changes in crop varieties, applying more advanced dry farming methods, improved water management, developing more efficient irrigation systems, and changes in planting – will be important in limiting adverse effects and taking advantage of beneficial changes in climate.     

Prediction of the sawing quality of Marmarit stones using the capability of artificial neural network

The sawing rate is one of the most significant and effective parameters in extracting building stones via diamond wire sawing. This parameter designates the capability of diamond wire sawing for sawing different stones; in addition, the parameter gives rise to economical considerations for quarry designers. In this study, the existent relations between stone geotechnical parameters and the sawing rate of stones via diamond wire sawing were analyzed using regression and correlation coefficient as well as the collected data from Marmarit stone quarries. Moreover, we estimated the sawing rate of Marmarit using the dimensional stone rock mass rating (DSRMR); upon comparison of the data obtained from DSRMR our pre‐collected data on quarries, we did not gain satisfactory results from DSRMR, hence we used artificial neural network (ANN). The results showed that the percentage of Silica, the coefficient of water absorption, the uniaxial compressive strength (UCS), and abrasive hardness are the proper parameters for creating the ANN. Discontinuities have the least effects possible on diamond wire sawing. Having given the training possibility of the ANN, and its ability to evaluate relations among input parameters, the ANN, which was being trained with Marmarit's traits, was an accurate network for estimating diamond wire sawing in Marmarit quarries, although it could not generalize this network for other stones such as Chini and Crystal. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.