Assessment of climate change impacts on rainfall using large scale climate variables and downscaling models – A case study

Many of the applied techniques in water resources management can be directly or indirectly influenced by hydro-climatology predictions. In recent decades, utilizing the large scale climate variables as predictors of hydrological phenomena and downscaling numerical weather ensemble forecasts has revolutionized the long-lead predictions. In this study, two types of rainfall prediction models are developed to predict the rainfall of the Zayandehrood dam basin located in the central part of Iran. The first seasonal model is based on large scale climate signals data around the world. In order to determine the inputs of the seasonal rainfall prediction model, the correlation coefficient analysis and the new Gamma Test (GT) method are utilized. Comparison of modelling results shows that the Gamma test method improves the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient of modelling performance as 8% and 10% for dry and wet seasons, respectively. In this study, Support Vector Machine (SVM) model for predicting rainfall in the region has been used and its results are compared with the benchmark models such as K-nearest neighbours (KNN) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The results show better performance of the SVM model at testing stage. In the second model, statistical downscaling model (SDSM) as a popular downscaling tool has been used. In this model, using the outputs from GCM, the rainfall of Zayandehrood dam is projected under two climate change scenarios. Most effective variables have been identified among 26 predictor variables. Comparison of the results of the two models shows that the developed SVM model has lesser errors in monthly rainfall estimation. The results show that the rainfall in the future wet periods are more than historical values and it is lower than historical values in the dry periods. The highest monthly uncertainty of future rainfall occurs in March and the lowest in July.     

Introducing a Comprehensive Data Reduction and Uncertainty Propagation Algorithm for U‐Th Geochronometry with Extraction Chromatography and Isotope Dilution MC‐ICP‐MS

We present an open‐source algorithm in Mathematica application (Wolfram Research) with a transparent data reduction and Monte Carlo simulation of systematic and random uncertainties for U‐Th geochronometry by multi‐collector ICP‐MS. Uranium and thorium were quantitatively separated from matrix elements through a single U/TEVA extraction chromatography step. A rigorous calibrator‐sample bracketing routine was adopted using CRM‐112A and IRMM‐035 standard solutions, doped with an IRMM‐3636a ²³³U/²³⁶U ‘double‐spike’ to account for instrumental mass bias and deviations of measured isotope ratios from certified values. The mean of ²³⁴U/²³⁸U and ²³⁰Th/²³²Th in the standard solutions varied within 0.42 and 0.25‰ (permil) of certified ratios, respectively, and were consistent with literature values within uncertainties. Based on multiple dissolutions with lithium metaborate flux fusion, U and Th concentrations in USGS BCR‐2 CRM were updated to 1739 ± 2 and 5987 ± 50 ng g^?1 (95% CI), respectively. The measurement reproducibility of our analytical technique was evaluated by analysing six aliquots of an in‐house reference material, prepared by homogenising a piece of speleothem (CC3A) from Cathedral Cave, Utah, which returned a mean age of 21483 ± 63 years (95% CI, 2.9‰). Replicate analysis of ten samples from CC3A was consistent with ages previously measured at the University of Minnesota by single‐collector ICP‐MS within uncertainties.     

The formation of iron hydroxide coatings in an Emscher Marl: inverse reactive transport modeling of reactive surface area

The possible effects of iron oxide coatings on the reactive surface area of calcite in column experiments have been studied and then modeled numerically. A column with six compartments separated by teflon filters was packed with Emscher Marl (essentially calcite). The marl was initially mixed with corundum as an internal standard. Hydrochloric acid with pH 3 was percolated through the column for a given period, after which the mineralogical changes were quantified by X-ray diffraction ex-situ. Then, the column compartments were re-filled and again percolated with HCl. This procedure was repeated five times. The losses and gains of calcite in the column compartments provided the data basis for modeling the entire experiment with the reactive transport code TOUGHREACT using a kinetic rate law. The experimental results showed that during the first period, loss of calcite in the first compartment is about 50 % less than that determined from the theoretical analysis. This showed the entrance of acid into the higher compartments through preferential flow paths (wormholes) which was observed at the boundary between sample and cell wall. This pattern could also be verified by the relatively high Peclet and low Damköhler numbers, showing a strongly advection-dominant system. Apart from calcite dissolution, structural Fe²⁺ released from calcite oxidized and formed iron hydroxide (FeOOH) coatings along preferential fluid pathways. Despite specific assumptions such as using pure calcite in the model, a comparison between modeling results and lab observations is instructive. The simulated calcite change patterns in the most compartments are consistent with the experiments. Some discrepancies are noted in the last compartment, which may bring the attention to a need for model improvements.     

The effects of human activities and different land-use on trace element pollution in urban topsoil of Isfahan (Iran)

The excessive input of trace elements into urban soil has become one of the most important concerns in industrial and crowded cities all over the world. The contamination of urban soils can affect the health of people living in urban areas, and the surrounding ecosystems. Current study was conducted to assess the effects of human activities as well as different land-use on accumulation of trace elements in urban topsoil and also identify the potential risks to human health in Isfahan (Iran). A total of 95 topsoil samples were taken from different localities of Isfahan City and analyzed for Zn, Pb, Cu and Cr using the atomic absorption spectrophotometric method. Pollution index (PI) was calculated for each trace element to identify the rate of trace element accumulation with respect to the background values. Land-use map and geochemical maps were also created for evaluating of spatial distribution of pollution index and trace elements’ concentration in the studied area. Overlapping the concentrations’ map and land-use map revealed that the highest values of pollution index and trace elements’ concentration were located in central part of the city and highways with a great vehicle traffic load and also in the vicinity of industrial factories that increased potential health hazards to the local community. On the other hand, lowest values of trace elements were located in green-lands with strict vehicle traffic laws. These results indicated that different land-use and human activities have affected quality of urban topsoil of Isfahan resulting in great apprehensions regarding public health in crowded parts of the city.     

Coupling effect of ozone column and atmospheric infrared sounder data reveal evidence of earthquake precursor phenomena of Bam earthquake,Iran

Understanding the source mechanism of earthquakes may be the key to predict earthquakes. The testing of radioactive radiations and reactionary hypothesis of gases before and after quake events can help predict and monitor earthquake occurrence. In this study, the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and the column ozone (O₃) were applied to evaluate the December 26, 2003 earthquake of Bam city in western Iran. The results show that ozone concentration (column density) decreased about 30 DU and or 807?×?10E15/cm² molecules. Using high-resolution AIRS data for the study area, we were able to discriminate gases that formed and changed before the main shock at least a day before the occurrence of the quake in Bam.     

A hybridized numerical and regression method for estimating the minimum rock pillar width of twin circular tunnels

Twin tunnels can be used for many applications. Interaction between two tunnels is an important problem in tunnel engineering that should be studied specially. Numerical investigations are well adapted to field data and numerical methods can be used in design of rock pillar of twin circular tunnels. So far, no relationship has been provided to estimate the minimum stable rock pillar width. In this paper, the interaction between twin circular tunnels has been studied using 2D finite element analysis. To do this, a great number of twin tunnels were modeled in Phase2 software with different conditions of rock mass (RMR value) and depth of tunnel. Models were analyzed and minimum stable rock pillar width was determined. This process was repeated for three different ratios of K (ratio of horizontal stress to vertical stress, 0.5, 1, and 1.5). Finally, according to the linear and nonlinear regression methods, the best merit function was fitted to result of numerical analysis. Then, new approximate formula was proposed to estimate the minimum rock pillar width according to RMR value and depth of twin circular tunnels with different K values. The formulae are very accurate (coefficient of correlation equals to minimum 0.96) that can be used for estimating the minimum rock pillar width of twin circular tunnels.     

A microseismic experiment in Abu Dhabi,United Arab Emirates: implications for carbonate reservoir monitoring

A microseismic experiment utilizing a single downhole array of eight 3-component receivers was conducted in an offshore oilfield in the emirate of Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates. The Lower Cretaceous Thamama Group is the major carbonate reservoir in the field producing from six zones. Microseismic data was acquired in conjunction with gas injections that took place in the Thamama IV A and IV B reservoirs during 9 days of acquisition. The aim of the experiment was to monitor the microseismic activity arising in the carbonate reservoirs as a result of gas injection. A total of 103 microseismic events were detected from two of the receivers. For the majority of these events, there were no well-defined P wave arrivals, probably due to the presence of strong background noise and the very weak microseismic signals. The results from this experiment indicate that the detected events are probably related to the microseismic activities caused by the gas injection within the Thamama IV B reservoir. Therefore, downhole microseismic monitoring methods can potentially provide valuable information about the fracture systems within the carbonate reservoirs of Abu Dhabi's oilfields.     

The inner ramp facies of the Thanetian Lockhart Formation,western Salt Range,Indus Basin,Pakistan

The Lockhart Formation from a major carbonate unit of the Paleocene Charrat Group in Upper Indus Basin, Pakistan represents a larger foraminiferal–algal build up deposited in a cyclic sequence of the carbonate ramp. The foraminiferal–algal assemblages of the Lockhart Formation are correlated here to larger foraminiferal biostratigraphic zone, i.e. Shallow Benthic Zone (SBZ3) of the Thanetian Age. Inner ramp lagoon, shoal and fore shoal open marine are three main facies associations represented by wackstone and packstone foraminiferal–algal deposits. These facies are present in a cyclic order and displayed a retrograding carbonate ramp indicating the Thanetian transgressive deposits associated with eustatic sea level rise. The correlation of the microfacies of the Lockhart Formation (Upper Indus Basin) and facies of the Dungan Formation (Lower Indus Basin) provide detailed configuration of the depositional setting of the Indus Basin during the time interval represented by the Thanetian Zone SBZ3.     

Seismic risk assessment of buildings in Izmir,Turkey

Izmir, the third largest city and a major economic center in Turkey, has more than three million residents and half million buildings. In this study, the seismic risk in reinforced concrete buildings that dominate the building inventory in Izmir is investigated through multiple approaches. Five typical reinforced concrete buildings were designed, modeled and assessed for seismic vulnerability. The sample structures represent typical existing reinforced concrete hospital, school, public, and residential buildings in Izmir. The seismic assessments of the considered structures indicate that they are vulnerable to damage during expected future earthquakes.     

Neoproterozoic diamictite in the Eastern Desert of Egypt and Northern Saudi Arabia: evidence of ~750 Ma glaciation in the Arabian–Nubian Shield?

The Neoproterozoic Atud diamictite in Wadi Kareim and Wadi Mobarak in the Eastern Desert of Egypt and the Nuwaybah formation in NW Saudi Arabia consist of poorly sorted, polymictic breccia, with clasts up to 1 m of granitoid, quartz porphyry, quartzite, basalt, greywacke, marble, arkose, and microconglomerate in fine-grained matrix. Stratigraphic relations indicate that the diamictite was deposited in a marine environment. Integrated field investigation, petrographic study and U–Pb SHRIMP zircon ages demonstrate that the Atud and Nuwaybah are correlative. The distribution of zircon ages indicate that ~750 Ma ages are dominant with a significant component of older materials, characterized by minor Mesoproterozoic and more abundant Paleoproterozoic and Neoarchean ages. Some matrix and metasedimentary clast zircons yield ages that are a few 10s of Ma younger than the age of the youngest clast (754 ± 15 Ma), suggesting Atud/Nuwaybah diamictite deposition ~750 Ma or slightly later, broadly consistent with being deposited during the Sturtian glaciation (740–660 Ma). The Paleoproterozoic and Neoarchean clasts have no source within the ensimatic Arabian–Nubian Shield. The distribution of the pre-Neoproterozoic ages are similar to the distribution of the pre-Neoproterozoic ages in Yemen and Saharan Metacraton, suggesting that these clasts have been transported hundreds of kilometers, maybe by ice-rafting. The Atud diamictite may represent important evidence for Cryogenian “Snowball Earth” in the Arabian–Nubian Shield.