Tsunami hazard in the Eastern Mediterranean: strong earthquakes and tsunamis in Cyprus and the Levantine Sea

A modern tsunami catalogue has been compiled for the region of Cyprus-Levantine Sea in which 24 certain or possible local tsunamis are listed from antiquity up to the present time, while six regional tsunamis, generated in the Hellenic arc, are documented which affected the region. Another set of 13 doubtful events not included in the catalogue are discussed. Tsunami intensities k and K were re-evaluated using the classic 6-grade and the new 12-grade intensity scales, respectively. The strongest tsunamis reported in the region of interest are those of 551 AD, 749, 1068, 1201, 1222, 1546 and 1759, all occurring along the Levantine coast from Gaza northward, with the exception of the 1222 wave which occurred in the Cyprean arc. The causative earthquakes, however, occur on land and are associated with the left-lateral strike-slip Levantine rift and, as such, remain unexplained. In this paper we speculate on the mechanism of these events. A second tsunami zone follows the Cyprean arc, where the situation of subaqueous seismogenic sources favours the generation of tsunamis by co-seismic fault displacements. Submarine or coastal earth slumping, however, may be an additional tsunamigenic component. Based on historical data, the average tsunami recurrence in the Cyprus-Levantine Sea region is roughly estimated to be around 30 years, 120 years and 375 years for moderate (k/K ≥ 2/3), strong (k/K ≥ 3/5) and very strong (k/K ≥ 5/8) events, respectively. The rate of tsunami occurrence equals 0.033, 8.3 × 10⁻³ and 2.7 × 10⁻³ events/year for intensity k/K ≥ 2/3, 3/5 and 5/8, respectively. For a Poissonian (random) process the probabilities of observing at least one moderate, strong or very strong tsunami are 0.28, 0.01 and 3 × 10⁻³ within 1 year, 0.81, 0.34 and 0.13 within 50 years and 0.96, 0.56 and 0.24 within 100 years, respectively. The tsunami potential in the Cyprus-Levantine Sea area is low relative to other Mediterranean tsunamigenic regions. However, the destructiveness of some historical events indicates the need to evaluate tsunami hazard by all available means. In addition, remote tsunamigenic sources, such as those of 1303 and 1481 in the eastern Hellenic arc, are able to threaten the coasts of the Cyprus-Levantine region and, therefore, such regional tsunamis should be taken into account in the evaluation of the tsunami risk of the region.     

Particle shape effect on thermal conductivity and shear wave velocity in sands

This study presents the correlations between quantified shape parameters and geotechnical properties for nine sand specimens. Four shape parameters, sphericity, convexity, elongation and slenderness, were quantified with two-dimensional microscopic images with the aid of image processing techniques. An instrumented oedometer cell is used to measure compressibility, thermal conductivity and shear wave velocity during loading, unloading and reloading stages. As the particle shape inherently determines the initial loose packing condition, initial void ratio and shape parameters are well correlated with compressibility. The applied stress in soils increases the interparticle contact area and contact quality; round particles tend to achieve higher thermal conductivity and shear wave velocity during stress-induced volume change. Multiple linear regression is implemented to capture the relative contributions of involved variables, revealing that the thermal evolution is governed by the initial packing density and particle shape. The experimental observations underscore the predominant effect that particle shape has on the geomechanical and physical properties upon stress-induced soil behavior.     

3-D GRACE gravity model for the 2011 Japan earthquake

The GRACE mission has contributed to the seismic characterization of major earthquakes in offshore regions of the world. Here, we isolate satellite gravity signal (μGal range) for the Japan Earthquake of 2011 using a difference method. Contrary to the existing gravity models, we propose a unit vertical pyramid based five-layer 3-D thrust fault model, which extends to the hypocenter and honors the ocean water layer and sea floor upheaval also. Our model partly uses existing seismological information (hypocenter depth of 32 km, rupture length of 300 km and vertical slip of 4 m), provides a snapshot of episodic subduction of the Pacific Plate below the Atlantic Plate and its gravity response closely matches the observed gravity (RMS error of 3.4012×10^?13μGal), fully accounting for co-seismic mass redistribution including sea surface deformation. Our inferred rupture length, rupture velocity, average seismic moment magnitude and momentum, respectively, are 300 km, 4.49 km/s, 1.152×10²¹?1.8816×10²¹ N m and 2.319×10⁶ GNs, which fairly agree with the literature. Further, our model inferred momentum at the sea floor corresponds to an area pulse that led to Tsunami generation.     

Effects of climate change on spring wheat phenophase and water requirement in Heihe River basin,China

Climate change has significantly altered the temperature rhythm which is a key factor for the growth and phenophase of the crop. And temperature change further affects crop water requirement and irrigation system. In the north-west of China, one of the most important crop production bases is Heihe River basin where the observed phenological data is scarce. This study thus first adopted accumulated temperature threshold (ATT) method to define the phenological stages of the crop, and analysed the effect of climate change on phenological stages and water requirement of the crop during growing season. The results indicated the ATT was available for the determination of spring wheat phenological stages. The start dates of all phenological stages became earlier and the growing season length (days) was reduced by 7 days under climate change. During the growing season, water requirement without consideration of phenophase change has been increased by 26.1 mm, while that with consideration of phenophase change was featured in the decrease of water requirement by 50 mm. When temperature increased by 1°C on average, the changes were featured in the 2 days early start date of growing season, 2 days decrease of growing season length, and the 1.4 mm increase of water requirement, respectively.     

Decadal Changes in Water Quality and Net Productivity of a Shallow Danish Estuary Following Significant Nutrient Reductions

We utilized an extensive data set (1977–2013) from a water quality monitoring program to investigate the recovery of a Danish estuary following large reductions in total phosphorus (TP) and total nitrogen (TN) loading. Monthly rates of net transport and biogeochemical transformation of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) and phosphorus (DIP) were computed in two basins of the estuary using a box model approach, and oxygen-based rates of net ecosystem production (NEP) were determined. Since 1990, nutrient loading was reduced by 58 % for nitrogen and 80 % for phosphorus, causing significant decreases in DIN (60 %) and DIP (85 %) concentrations. Reductions in nutrient loadings and concentrations reduced annual chlorophyll levels by 50 % in the inner estuary and improved Secchi depth by approximately 1 m during the same period, particularly in the summer period. In the outer, deeper region of the estuary trends in water quality was less evident. Improvements in the inner estuary were strongly coupled to declines in DIN. Thresholds of DIN and DIP concentrations limiting phytoplankton growth indicated that both regions of the estuary were nitrogen limited. NEP rates indicated the development of more net autotrophic conditions over time that were likely associated with higher benthic primary production stimulated by improved light conditions. Box model computations revealed a modest reduction in summer net production of DIP over time, despite the persistence of elevated fluxes for several years after external loads were reduced. Since the mid-1990s, nutrient loading and transformation were stable while nutrient concentrations continued to decline and water quality improved in the inner estuary. The oligotrophication trajectory involved an initial fast transformation and modest retention of nutrients followed by a gradual decline in the rate of improvement towards a new stable condition.     

Regional modeling of dust storm of February 8, 2015 in the southwest of Iran

According to World Meteorological Organization report in 2015, the southwest of Iran has become one of the dust sources in the region. And the objective of this research is to study the dust storms originating in this region. For this purpose, based on the weather data of 14 stations, the dust storms of the region were investigated, and the dust storm of February 7, 2015, was selected due to its very high concentration of dust particles (66 times the normal values). For the analysis of source areas and storm paths, the FNL data was used. The regional models of Navy Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System (NAAPS), Barcelona Supercomputing Centre-Dust Regional Atmospheric Model 8b (DREAM 8b), Non-hydrostatic Multiscale Model Barcelona Supercomputing Center (NMMB/BSC), and hybrid single-particle Lagrangian integrated trajectory (HYSPLIT) were used to study and analyze the selected storm. The results showed that the dust event in February 8, 2016, has been the result of the polar front jet stream (PJF) caused by western immigrant system that had been over the Sahara in Africa, the deserts of Iraq, Syria, Saudi Arabia, and finally southwest of Iran in making the extreme dust event. According to the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer data and point models of NAAPS, optical depth was very high. The DREAM 8b and NMMB/BSC models confirmed the impact of the local factors and closeness to the dust source regions. The backward tracking of the model with the HYSPLIT model showed three tracks transporting the dust particles to the region. This software also showed that the dust particles occupied an atmospheric tunnel of 1.5 km in diameter.     

Review of water and soil contamination in and around Salihli geothermal field (Manisa,Turkey)

The town of Salihli is situated in Gediz Graben in the western Anatolia. This region is important in terms of industry, mining, geothermal energy, water sources, and agricultural production. Geothermal flow and anthropogenic activities in Salihli threaten the surrounding environment due to the contamination of cold groundwater, surface water, and soil. The goal of the present study is to determine the environmental effects of the geothermal and anthropogenic activities in Salihli on soil, stream sediments, and water. Stream sediments and farm soil have been contaminated by substances derived from geothermal and industrial effluents. To this end, the quality review of the water was completed and the heavy metal levels in stream sediment samples were measured to determine the extent of contamination. The elements As, B, Br, Fe, and Ni are the major contaminants present in surface water and groundwater in the study area. The concentrations of these elements excess tolerance limits of international water standards. Gibbsite, K-mica, kaolinite, sepiolite, halite, sulfur, willemite, and Pb(OH)₂ might be precipitated as scales at low temperatures on the soil; this could be interpreted as a resultant from soil contamination. The concentrations of 17 elements (As, Ba, B, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Hg, Li, Mo, Mn, Ni, Pb, Sb, Sr, and Zn) were measured in samples from stream sediments and surface soils. In the study area, especially geothermal and anthropogenic activities give rise to environmental pollution.     

A comparative study of landslide susceptibility mapping using weight of evidence,logistic regression and support vector machine and evaluated by SBAS-InSAR monitoring: Zhouqu to Wudu segment in Bailong River Basin,China

The determining of landslide-prone areas in mountainous terrain is essential for land planning and hazard mitigation. In this paper, a comparative study using three statistical models including weight of evidence model (WoE), logistic regression model (LR) and support vector machine method (SVM) was undertaken in the Zhouqu to Wudu segment in the Bailong River Basin, Southern Gansu, China. Six conditionally independent environmental factors, elevation, slope, aspect, distance from fault, lithology and settlement density, were selected as the explanatory variables that may contribute to landslide occurrence based on principal component analysis (PCA) and Chi-square test. The relation between landslide distributions and these variables was analyzed using the three models and the results then used to calculate the landslide susceptibility (LS). The performance of the models was then evaluated using both the highly accurate deformation signals produced by using the Small Baseline Subset Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar technique and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve. Results show more deformation points in areas with high and very high LS levels, and also more stable points in areas with low and very low LS levels for the SVM model. In addition, the SVM has larger area under the ROC curve. It indicates that the SVM has better prediction accuracy and classified ability. For the interpretability, the WoE derives the class of factors that most contributed to landsliding in the study area, and the LR reveals that factors including elevation, settlement density and distance from fault played major roles in landslide occurrence and distribution, whereas the SVM cannot provide relative weights for the variables. The outperformed SVM could be employed to determine potential landslide zones in the study area. Outcome of this research would provide preliminary basis for general land planning such as choosing new urban areas and infrastructure construction in the future, as well as for landslide hazard mitigation in Bailong River Basin.     

Combining AHP and genetic algorithms approaches to modify DRASTIC model to assess groundwater vulnerability: a case study from Jianghan Plain,China

Accurate identification of vulnerability areas is critical for groundwater resources protection and management. The present study employed the modified DRASTIC model to assess the groundwater vulnerability of Jianghan Plain, a major farming area in central China. DRASTICL model was developed by incorporating the land use factor to the original model. The ratings and weightings of the selected parameters were optimized by analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method and genetic algorithms (GAs) method, respectively. A combined AHP–GAs method was proposed to further develop this methodology. The unity-based normalization process was employed to categorize the vulnerability maps into four types, such as very high (>0.75), high (0.5–0.75), low (0.25–0.5), and very low (<0.25). The accuracy of vulnerability mapping was validated by Pearson’s correlation coefficient between vulnerability index and the nitrate concentration in groundwater and analysis of variance F statistic. The results revealed that the modified DRASTIC model had a large improvement over the conventional model. The correlation coefficient increased significantly from 41.07 to 75.31% after modification. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the depth to groundwater with 39.28% of mean effective weight was the most critical factor affecting the groundwater vulnerability. The developed vulnerability model proposed in this study could provide important objective information for groundwater and environmental management at local level and innovation for international researchers.