HASSET: a probability event tree tool to evaluate future volcanic scenarios using Bayesian inference

Event tree structures constitute one of the most useful and necessary tools in modern volcanology for assessment of hazards from future volcanic scenarios (those that culminate in an eruptive event as well as those that do not). They are particularly relevant for evaluation of long- and short-term probabilities of occurrence of possible volcanic scenarios and their potential impacts on urbanized areas. In this paper, we introduce Hazard Assessment Event Tree (HASSET), a probability tool, built on an event tree structure that uses Bayesian inference to estimate the probability of occurrence of a future volcanic scenario and to evaluate the most relevant sources of uncertainty from the corresponding volcanic system. HASSET includes hazard assessment of noneruptive and nonmagmatic volcanic scenarios, that is, episodes of unrest that do not evolve into volcanic eruption but have an associated volcanic hazard (e.g., sector collapse and phreatic explosion), as well as unrest episodes triggered by external triggers rather than the magmatic system alone. Additionally, HASSET introduces the Delta method to assess precision of the probability estimates, by reporting a 1 standard deviation variability interval around the expected value for each scenario. HASSET is presented as a free software package in the form of a plug-in for the open source geographic information system Quantum Gis (QGIS), providing a graphically supported computation of the event tree structure in an interactive and user-friendly way. We also include further in-depth explanations for each node together with an application of HASSET to Teide-Pico Viejo volcanic complex (Spain).     

Contrasts among macrophyte riparian species in their use of stream water nitrate and ammonium: insights from 15N natural abundance

We examined the relevance of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) forms (nitrate and ammonium) in stream water as N sources for different macrophyte species. To do this, we investigated the variability and relationships between ¹⁵N natural abundance of DIN forms and of four different macrophyte species in five different streams influenced by inputs from wastewater treatment plants and over time within one of these streams. Results showed that ¹⁵N signatures were similar in species of submersed and amphibious macrophytes and in stream water DIN, whereas ¹⁵N signatures of the riparian species were not. ¹⁵N signatures of macrophytes were generally closer to ¹⁵N signatures of nitrate, regardless of the species considered. Our results showed significant relationships between ¹⁵N signatures of DIN and those of submersed Callitriche stagnalis and amphibious Veronica beccabunga and Apium nodiflorum, suggesting stream water DIN as a relevant N source for these two functional groups. Moreover, results from a mixing model suggested that stream water DIN taken up by the submersed and amphibious species was mostly in the form of nitrate. Together, these results suggest different contribution to in-stream N uptake among the spatially-segregated species of macrophytes. While submersed and amphibious species can contribute to in-stream N uptake by assimilation of DIN, macrophyte species located at stream channel edges do not seem to rely on stream water DIN as an N source. Ultimately, these results add a functional dimension to the current use of macrophytes for the restoration of stream channel morphology, indicating that they can also contribute to reduce excess DIN in streams.     

The 2011 Lorca seismic series: Temporal evolution,faulting parameters and hypocentral relocation

The Lorca 2011 seismic series was recorded by an unprecedented set of high quality on scale broadband seismograms and strong motion accelerograms. The waveforms from permanent and temporary broadband seismic networks deployed in the region by different institutions allowed to invert regional moment tensor for the fore, main and largest aftershock of the complete seismic sequence. Using double-difference algorithm we have performed a precise relocation of the seismic series, where body wave travel times from strong ground motion accelerograms were included in the data set. Regional moment tensor inversion for the three main events show similar oblique-reverse faulting regime with a northeast-southwest fault orientation. The scalar seismic moment, moment magnitude and focal depth retrieved from the inversion yield the following values for each event: \(\hbox {Mo}=6.5\times 10^{16}\) Nm (Mw = 5.2) for the mainshock, \(\hbox {Mo}= 9.6 \times 10^{15}\) Nm (Mw = 4.6) for the foreshock and \(\hbox {Mo}=7.3\times 10^{14}\) Nm (Mw = 3.9) for the large aftershock. The centroid depths range between 4 and 6 km. The double-difference relocation of the seismic series shows significant epicentral differences with the preliminary routine location. The epicentral solutions given by this relocation show a seismic sequence distributed following a NE–SW strike, subparallel to the Alhama de Murcia fault and compatible with the faulting parameters inverted from the moment tensor analysis. The hypocenters of the series generate a subvertical trend in depth distribution, being concentrated between 2 and 6 km. The depth distribution of the main events, which range from 4.6 to 5.5 km, is in good relationship with the faulting and depth parameters deduced from the moment tensor inversion technique. The regional moment tensor solutions for the three largest earthquakes, the epicentral distribution and the focal depths show good relationship with the surface geometry and tectonic regime of the Alhama de Murcia fault. The stress drop deduced for the mainshock gives a value ranging between 58 and 85 bars, which does not support the idea of a high stress drop release as a main factor contributing to the high ground acceleration recorded at Lorca. The PGA values observed at Lorca, which contributed to the high damage independently of structural deficiencies, could be generated mainly by shallowness and proximity to the seismic source together with a directivity effect in the seismic radiation.     

Recent results on X-ray novae and microquasars at radio and infrared wavelengths

The Spanish MINISAT program has been structured in three main stagesplus several associated developments, achieving a modular family of lowcost platforms in the small satellite segment, designed to use mainly in lowearth orbit (LEO) applications. The first stage of the MINISAT programhave concluded with the complete development and orbit qualification ofthe platform MINISAT 0 together with the operational experiences is beingachieved to perform the scientific mission 01, launched on April 21^st 1997. The second stage of the MINISAT program consist of the modularupgrading of the platform 0 to reach the maximum performances orplatform MINISAT 1 to do earth observation missions. The first missionwith the platform 1 started the phase A of feasibility study in 1995. Thethird stage of the MINISAT program will consist of the development of theplatform MINISAT 2 that will be an adaptation of the platform MINISAT1 to be able to do communication missions even in the geostationary orbit.     

Preservation of a heavily bored belemnite rostrum from the upper Maastrichtian of north-east Belgium

The robust calcite rostra (or guards) of belemnites were attractive substrates for some boring organisms in the Mesozoic. The rostra of belemnitellid coleoids are common at certain levels within the Gulpen and Maastricht formations of the extended type area of the Maastrichtian Stage (Upper Cretaceous) in the south-east Netherlands and north-east Belgium. A range of episkeletozoans have been reported from these substrates hitherto. A new specimen preserved as a natural mould in flint from the province of Liège, north-east Belgium, is distinctive, preserving a dense three-dimensional infestation of long, slender, unbranched and unsculptured borings of constant diameter, Trypanites? isp. These may be the spoor of polychaetes. Variations in diameter between borings suggests that the traces in this specimen may represent four separate infestations.     

Fingerprint of tropical climate variability and sea level in sediments of the Cariaco Basin during the last glacial period

High‐resolution palaeorecords of climate are critical to improving current understanding of climate variability, its sensitivity and impact on the environment in the past and in the future. Sediments from the Cariaco Basin off the coast of Venezuela have proven to be sensitive recorders of tropical palaeoclimate variability down to an annual scale. However, the fingerprint of climate and sea level in the sediments of the last glacial period is still not completely understood. In this study, lamination analysis of sediments from the Cariaco Basin is extended to the last glacial period. Detailed sedimentological and geochemical analysis (laser ablation–inductively coupled plasma–mass spectrometry) reveals couplets of light‐coloured, terrigenous‐rich and dark‐coloured, biogenic opal‐rich laminae, which are interpreted to reflect the seasonal migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. In addition, a previously undescribed, nearly pure terrigenous lamina type is observed, which is referred to hereafter as a ‘C‐layer’. The C‐layers in the sedimentary sequence are interpreted as flood layers that originate from local rivers. The occurrence of these C‐layers is investigated for two core locations in the Cariaco Basin over the last 110 kyr by continuous X‐ray fluorescence scanning. Dansgaard–Oeschger oscillations are most clearly traced by proxies reflecting productivity and marine organic matter content of the sediment. In contrast, the abundance of terrigenous material differs at times between the two sites. On an interglacial to glacial timescale, the ability to record events causing C‐layers is likely to be influenced by changes in sea level and source proximity. On a millennial scale, both sediment cores contain more C‐layers during warmer interstadials compared with colder stadials during Marine Isotope Stage 3. This finding implies that interstadials were not only wetter than stadials, but probably also characterized by increased rainfall variability, leading to an enhanced frequency of flooding events in the hinterland of the Cariaco Basin.     

Contrasting environmental effects of astronomically driven climate change on three Eocene hemipelagic successions from the Basque–Cantabrian Basin

Several processes can contribute to the formation of hemipelagic limestone–marl alternations as a consequence of astronomically driven climate change. The aim of this study was to decipher which environmental factors governed the formation of three Eocene hemipelagic successions of the Basque–Cantabrian Basin using a comprehensive set of physical and bulk carbonate geochemical data (bed thickness, mineralogy, %CaCO₃, δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O). The results show that the significance of several environmental processes varied depending on the palaeogeographic setting and eccentricity‐modulated precessional seasonality. In the Sopelana starved deep‐sea basin, limestones were formed as a consequence of high pelagic carbonate productivity during periods of warm seawater and sluggish circulation, which corresponded with periods of low seasonality (summers at aphelion); conversely, marls accumulated when pelagic carbonate productivity decreased during periods with cooler waters and more vigorous circulation, which occurred when seasonality was higher (summers at perihelion). In the Gorrondatxe submarine fan fringe, marls accumulated when high seasonality produced significant continental rainfall and run‐off, causing the dilution of pelagic carbonate sedimentation with terrigenous supplies. In the Oyambre upper slope, marls also accumulated when seasonality was high, as pelagic carbonate productivity decreased due to both the expansion of low‐salinity waters on the ocean surface and the increase in continentally derived nutrients, which caused detrimental seawater conditions for calcareous plankton. Both in Gorrondatxe and Oyambre, limestones accumulated when boreal summer at aphelion caused low seasonality, which allowed relatively stable conditions to prevail. At minimum eccentricity, when precession‐driven seasonality contrast diminished, changes in pelagic carbonate productivity were significant in the three sections. On the contrary, at maximum eccentricity, when seasonality peaked due to summers occurring at perihelion, the effects of other environmental processes, such as continental and oceanic currents, became influential. However, the influence of these processes minimized when summertime coincided with aphelion at maximum eccentricity and seasonality was weakest.     

Apparent conflicting Roadian–Wordian (middle Permian) CA-IDTIMS and palynology ages from the Canning Basin,Western Australia

U–Pb dating of zircons from thin middle Permian tuffs in the Canning Basin of Western Australia by chemical abrasion-isotope dilution thermal ionisation mass spectrometry reveals a conflict with the established spore-pollen zonation. Normally, the first appearance datum of Dulhuntyispora granulata across the continent lies stratigraphically above assemblages assigned to the Microbaculispora villosa Zone. However, the youngest tuffs within non-marine facies from the M. villosa Zone in Pittston SD-1, drilled in the southwest of the Canning Basin, yielded an age of 267.04 ± 0.14 Ma, which is 1.7 million years younger than tuffs associated with the D. granulata Zone in marginal-marine facies from core holes 350–400 km to the northeast. The apparent conflict in ages is possibly due to the non-marine depositional environment having wielded a strong local influence on the palynoflora along the edge of this basin. Although the present information indicates an age 2.5 million years younger than the 266.6 Ma age previously suggested for the top of the M. villosa Zone, revisions to the ages of Roadian–Wordian spore-pollen zones are not considered justifiable without further supporting evidence. Furthermore, considerable care is needed when comparing palynological assemblages from significantly differing facies. Two basaltic sills (43.5 m and 20 m thick) immediately below the tuffaceous beds in Pittston SD-1 are coincidental, as Ar–Ar dating indicates a Late Triassic age for the intrusions.