Topographic predictors of susceptibility to alluvial fan flooding,Southern Apennines

The flooding susceptibility of alluvial fans in the Southern Apennines has long been neglected. To partly address this oversight, we focus on the region of Campania which contains highly urbanized piedmont areas particularly vulnerable to flooding. Our findings are based on stratigraphic analysis of the fans and morphometric analysis of the basin‐fan systems. Using geomorphological analysis we recognized active alluvial fans while stratigraphic analysis together with statistical analysis of the morphometric variables was used to classify the fans in terms of the transport process involved. The results indicate that in the geological context examined, the best discrimination between debris flow (Df) and water flood (Wf) processes is achieved by means of two related variables, one for the basin (feeder channel inclination, Cg) and one for the fan (fan length, Fl). The probability that an unclassified fan belongs to group Wf is computed by applying a logistic function in which a P value exceeding 0.5 indicates that a basin/fan system belongs to group Wf. This important result led to the classification of the entire basin/fan system data. As regards process intensity, debris flow‐dominated fans are susceptible to the occurrence of flows with high viscosity and hence subject to more severe events than water flood‐dominated fans. Bearing this in mind, the data gathered in this study allow us to detect where alluvial fan flooding might occur and give information on the different degrees of susceptibility at a regional scale. Regrettably, urban development in recent decades has failed to take the presence of such alluvial fans into account due to the long recurrence time (50–100 years) between floods. This paper outlines the distribution of such susceptibility scenarios throughout the region, thereby constituting an initial step to implementing alluvial fan flooding control and mitigation. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Comprehensive Method for Fractionating Soil Organic Matter Not Protected and Protected from Decomposition by Physical and Chemical Mechanisms

The objective of this work was to describe a method for isolating meaningful and measurable soil organic matter (SOM) pools that differ in the mechanisms by which they are protected from decomposition. The proposed method is appropriate for soil C stabilization and sequestration studies. Unlike previous fractionation schemes, this procedure allows free SOM located between aggregates (unprotected C pool) and SOM occluded within both macroaggregates and microaggregates (C weakly and strongly protected by physical mechanisms, respectively) to be recovered separately, freed from the soil mineral matrix and the mineral‐associated SOM pool (C pool protected by chemical mechanisms) and thus well suited to advanced chemical characterization by ¹³C‐NMR. Briefly, free SOM is isolated by an initial density separation. Stable macroaggregates are broken up into stable microaggregates and intra‐macroaggregate SOM, which is then separated by density. Finally, intra‐microaggregate SOM is isolated from mineral‐associated SOM by a third density separation after ultrasonic disruption. The SOM dissolved during the fractionation procedure is also recovered. Results obtained on soil samples with contrasting textures suggested that clay content induces a decrease of the proportion of free organic C and an increase of mineral‐associated organic C content. Free SOM is characterized by a marked presence of undecayed organic material and biologically labile substances, such as carbohydrates and proteins. In contrast, SOM occluded within aggregates, especially within microaggregates, represents a more decomposed fraction, relatively enriched in unsubstituted‐aliphatic material, most probably lipid biopolymers.     

Scale-dependent correlations between soil heavy metals and As around four coal-fired power plants of northern Greece

We analyse the concentration of five trace elements (As, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn) in the topsoil of the Kozani-Ptolemais basin where four coal-fired power plants run to provide almost 47.8 % of electricity requirements in Greece. We assume that if the power plants have altered the spatial (co)variation of the analysed elements through their toxic by-products, their effect would be observable only on a small spatial scale, since deposition of airborne pollutants is more evident if it is near the emission source. We used Factorial Cokriging to estimate the small-scale correlations among soil elements and to compare them to large spatial-scale correlations. Soil samples were collected from 92 sites. Given the low concentrations in soil heavy metals and As, we observed no serious soil contamination risk. We estimated correlations among the analysed elements on two spatial scales. On the larger scale, Ni and As exhibited higher correlation and received higher weights for the first regionalized factor, contrary to Cu, Pb and Zn which weighted more for the second regionalized factor. On the small spatial scale As associated with neither Ni nor other heavy metals. We conclude that soil arsenic has been altered by enrichment caused by some power plants through fly ash deposition and/or disposal. However, enrichment of soil elements was detectable only on the smaller spatial scale because anthropogenic inputs in soil through airborne emissions and subsequent deposition are evident only in the vicinity of the emission source.     

An investigation of ensemble-based assimilation of satellite altimetry and tide gauge data in storm surge prediction

Cyclogenesis and long-fetched winds along the southeastern coast of South America may lead to floods in populated areas, as the Buenos Aires Province, with important economic and social impacts. A numerical model (SMARA) has already been implemented in the region to forecast storm surges. The propagation time of the surge in such extensive and shallow area allows the detection of anomalies based on observations from several hours up to the order of a day prior to the event. Here, we investigate the impact and potential benefit of storm surge level data assimilation into the SMARA model, with the objective of improving the forecast. In the experiments, the surface wind stress from an ensemble prediction system drives a storm surge model ensemble, based on the operational 2-D depth-averaged SMARA model. A 4-D Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (4D-LETKF) initializes the ensemble in a 6-h cycle, assimilating the very few tide gauge observations available along the northern coast and satellite altimeter data. The sparse coverage of the altimeters is a challenge to data assimilation; however, the 4D-LETKF evolving covariance of the ensemble perturbations provides realistic cross-track analysis increments. Improvements on the forecast ensemble mean show the potential of an effective use of the sparse satellite altimeter and tidal gauges observations in the data assimilation prototype. Furthermore, the effects of the localization scale and of the observational errors of coastal altimetry and tidal gauges in the data assimilation approach are assessed.     

Effects of seismic devices on transverse responses of piers in the Sutong Bridge

The Sutong Bridge in China opened to traffic in 2008, and is an arterial connection between the cities of Nantong and Suzhou. It is a cable-stayed bridge with a main span of 1,088 m. Due to a tight construction schedule and lack of suitable seismic devices at the time, fixed supports were installed between the piers and the girder in the transverse direction. As a result, significant transverse seismic forces could occur in the piers and foundations, especially during a return period of a 2500-year earthquake. Therefore, the piers, foundations and fixed bearings had to be designed extraordinarily strong. However, when larger earthquakes occur, the bearings, piers and foundations are still vulnerable. The recent rapid developments in seismic technology and the performance-based design approach offer a better opportunity to optimize the transverse seismic design for the Sutong Bridge piers. The optimized design can be applied to the Sutong Bridge(as a retrofit), as well as other bridges. Seismic design alternatives utilizing viscous fluid dampers(VFD), or friction pendulum sliding bearings(FPSB), or transverse yielding metallic dampers(TYMD) are thoroughly studied in this work, and the results are compared with those from the current condition with fixed transverse supports and a hypothetical condition in which only sliding bearings are provided on top of the piers(the girder can move "freely" in the transverse direction during the earthquake, except for frictional forces of the sliding bearings). Parametric analyses were performed to optimize the design of these proposed seismic devices. From the comparison of the peak bridge responses in these configurations, it was found that both VFD and TYMD are very effective in the reduction of transverse seismic forces in piers, while at the same time keeping the relative transverse displacements between piers and the box girder within acceptable limits. However, compared to VFD, TYMD do not interact with the longitudinal displacements of the girder, and have simpler details and lower initial and maintenance costs. Although the use of FPSB can also reduce seismic forces, it generally causes the transverse relative displacements to be higher than acceptable limits.     

Community vulnerability to hazards: introducing local expert knowledge into the equation

The accuracies of three different evolutionary artificial neural network (ANN) approaches, ANN with genetic algorithm (ANN-GA), ANN with particle swarm optimization (ANN-PSO) and ANN with imperialist competitive algorithm (ANN-ICA), were compared in estimating groundwater levels (GWL) based on precipitation, evaporation and previous GWL data. The input combinations determined using auto-, partial auto- and cross-correlation analyses and tried for each model are: (i) GWL _t?1 and GWL _t?2; (ii) GWL _t?1, GWL _t?2 and P _t ; (iii) GWL _t?1, GWL _t?2 and E _t ; (iv) GWL _t?1, GWL _t?2, P _t and E _t ; (v) GWL _t?1, GWL _t?2 and P _t?1 where GWL _t , P _t and E _t indicate the GWL, precipitation and evaporation at time t, individually. The optimal ANN-GA, ANN-PSO and ANN-ICA models were obtained by trying various control parameters. The best accuracies of the ANN-GA, ANN-PSO and ANN-ICA models were obtained from input combination (i). The mean square error accuracies of the ANN-GA and ANN-ICA models were increased by 165 and 124% using ANN-PSO model. The results indicated that the ANN-PSO model performed better than the other models in modeling monthly groundwater levels.     

Surface dynamic deformation estimates from local seismicity: the Itoiz reservoir,Spain

We analyze the ground motion time histories due to the local seismicity near the Itoiz reservoir to estimate the near-source, surface 3D displacement gradients and dynamic deformations. The seismic data were obtained by a semipermanent broadband and accelerometric network located on surface and at underground sites. The dynamic deformation field was calculated by two different methodologies: first, by the seismo-geodetic method using the data from a three-station microarray located close to the dam, and second, by single station estimates of the displacement gradients. The dynamic deformations obtained from both methods were compared and analyzed in the context of the local free-field effects. The shallow 1D velocity structure was estimated from the seismic data by modeling the body wave travel times. Time histories obtained from both methods result quite similar in the time window of body wave arrivals. The strain misfits between methods vary from 1.4 to 35.0 % and rotational misfits vary from 2.5 to 36.0 %. Amplitudes of displacement gradients vary in the range of 10^?8 to 10^?7 strains. From these results, a new scaling analysis by numerical modeling is proposed in order to estimate the peak dynamic deformations for different magnitudes, up to the expected maximum M _w in the region (M5.5). Peak dynamic deformations due to local M _w5.5 earthquakes would reach amplitudes of 10^?5 strain and 10^?3 radians at the Itoiz dam. The single station method shows to be an adequate option for the analysis of local seismicity, where few three-component stations are available. The results obtained here could help to extend the applicability of these methodologies to other sites of engineering interest.     

Geomorphic monitoring and response to two dam removals: rivers Urumea and Leitzaran (Basque Country,Spain)

Dam removal has been demonstrated to be one of the most frequent and effective fluvial restoration actions but at most dam removals, especially of small dams, there has been little geomorphological monitoring. The results of the geomorphological monitoring implemented in two dams in the rivers Urumea and Leitzaran (northern Spain) are presented. The one from the River Urumea, originally 3.5 m high and impounding 500 m of river course, was removed instantaneously whereas that in the River Leitzaran, 12.5 m high, and impounding 1500 m of river course, is in its second phase of a four‐stage removal process. Changes in channel morphology, sediment size and mobility and river bed morphologies were assessed. The monitoring included several different techniques: topographical measurements of the channel, terrestrial laser scanner measurements of river bed and bars, sediment grain size and transport; all of them repeated in four (May, August, November 2011 and May 2012) and five (July and September 2013, April and August 2014 and June 2015) fieldwork campaigns in the River Urumea and River Leitzaran, respectively. Geomorphic responses of both dam removals are presented, and compared. Morphological channel adjustments occurred mainly shortly after dam removals, but with differences among the one removed instantaneously, that was immediate, whereas that conducted by stages took longer. Degradational processes were observed upstream of both dams (up to 1.2 m and 4 m in the River Urumea and River Leitzaran, respectively), but also aggradational processes (pool filling), upstream of Inturia Dam (2.85 m at least). Less evident aggradational processes were observed downstream of the dams (up to 0.37 m and 0.50 m in the River Urumea and River Leitzaran, respectively). Flood events, especially a 100 year flood registered during the monitoring period of Mendaraz Dam removal, reactivated geomorphological processes as incision and bank erosion, whereas longitudinal profile recovery, grain‐size sorting and upstream erosion took longer. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Reassessment of intensity estimates from vulnerability and damage distributions: the 2011 Lorca earthquake

This paper presents a reassessment of the seismic intensity estimated for the 2011 Lorca (southeastern Spain) earthquake based on detailed vulnerability data and its comparison with the observed damage. Building and urban data are gathered in selected areas during a field campaign and are completed with office work. The significance of vulnerability modifiers in the final vulnerability distribution is analyzed, and their relation with observed damage trends is explored. A direct application of the vulnerability modifiers is not capable of reproducing the observed damage patterns. A significant increase of vulnerability related to the performance of buildings presenting soft story is required to reach a damage distribution consistent with intensity estimates in the study areas. Accordingly, an intensity increase in certain study zones (as compared to other areas of the city of Lorca) is suggested. Although the approach followed in this study is applied in a city of Spain, it can be extrapolated to other areas where detailed vulnerability assessment is feasible and damage data are available.