An ensemble approach for the analysis of extreme rainfall under climate change in Naples (Italy)

In the present paper, an ensemble approach is proposed to estimate possible modifications caused by climate changes in the extreme precipitation regime, with the rain gauge Napoli Servizio Idrografico (Naples, Italy) chosen as test case. The proposed research, focused on the analysis of extremes on the basis of climate model simulations and rainfall observations, is structured in several consecutive steps. In the first step, all the dynamically downscaled EURO‐CORDEX simulations at about 12 km horizontal resolution are collected for the current period 1971–2000 and the future period 2071–2100, for the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5 concentration scenarios. In the second step, the significance of climate change effects on extreme precipitation is statistically tested by comparing current and future simulated data and bias‐correction is performed by means of a novel approach based on a combination of simple delta change and quantile delta mapping, in compliance with the storm index method. In the third step, two different ensemble models are proposed, accounting for the variabilities given by the use of different climate models and for their hindcast performances. Finally, the ensemble models are used to build novel intensity–duration–frequency curves, and their effects on the early warning system thresholds for the area of interest are evaluated.     

Possibilities and limits of prospective GIS land cover modelling—a compared case study: Garrotxes (France) and Alta Alpujarra Granadina (Spain)

This study focuses on the possibilities and the limits of a prospective GIS land cover modelling applied to two case studies (France and Spain). The methodology, based on available GIS tools, consists of using earlier land cover maps and relevant environmental factors (calibration data) to model actual, known land cover to validate the model. The model aggregates Markov chain analysis for time prediction and multi‐critera evaluation, multi‐objective evaluation and cellular automata to perform spatial contiguity of modelled land cover scores. The first results give an accurate, pixel by pixel prediction rate of approximately 75%. An important issue of this study consists of analysing prediction residues to improve the model.     

Mid‐Miocene initiation of E‐W extension and recoupling of the Himalaya

The Tibetan plateau is host to numerous ~N‐S striking graben that have accommodated E‐W directed extension. The development of these structures has been interpreted to reflect a variety of different geological processes including plateau collapse, oroclinal bending or mid‐to‐lower crustal flow. New ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar thermochronology and quartz c‐axis data from the Thakkhola graben of west‐central Nepal show that E‐W extension was ongoing at least locally by the early Miocene (ca. 17 Ma). Our new, and previously published chronologic information on the initiation of graben across the orogen shows that they typically developed immediately after cessation of the South Tibetan detachment system, a structural network that facilitated differential southward movement of the upper and middle crust. We interpret this fundamental switch in orogen kinematics to reflect recoupling of the middle and upper Himalayan crust such that the subsequent widespread flow of the mid‐to‐lower crust out of the system to the east forced brittle accommodation in the upper crust.     

Coseismic Three-Dimensional Displacements Determined Using SAR Data: Theory and an Application Test

We present a methodology to construct three-dimensional deformation maps using different parameters that can be extracted using SAR data. We apply the methodology using ENVISAT SAR data before and after the December 26^th, 2003 M_w 6.6 Bam earthquake in Iran to determine spatial quasi-continuous three-dimensional coseismic deformation maps. Two near vertical deformation offset components are computed using Envisat ASAR differential interferometry (DInSAR), while two horizontal deformation offset components are measured using sub-pixel correlation techniques applied to ASAR amplitude images. Using the presented methodology, we combine four unevenly precise independent projections of surface coseismic deformation to obtain the full three-dimensional coseismic deformation field caused by an earthquake. The full 3-D coseismic displacement vector is modeled using elastic deformation models constraining details of the fault geometry and slip distribution at depth. Results from the inversion are interpreted in the framework of the Iranian present-day tectonism. Full exploitation of dense 3-D coseismic surface deformation using SAR data, even for moderate earthquakes, should facilitate distinguishing between different interpretations of the mechanical properties of seismically active areas and within the inherent ambiguity of the geophysical inversion solutions.     

Novel deseasonalizing models for improving the prediction of total ozone in column using evolutionary programming and neural networks

In this paper we present a novel method for deseasonalizing TOC data using non-linear models, with evolutionary computation techniques, and its performance with a neural network as regression approach. Specifically, the proposed deseasonalization method uses an evolutionary programming (EP) approach to carry out a curve fitting problem, where a given function model is optimized to be as similar as possible to an objective curve (a real TOC measurement in this case). Different non-linear models are proposed to be optimized with the EP algorithm. In addition, we test the possibility of deseasonalizing the TOC measurement and also the meteorological input data. The deseasonalized series is then used to train a neural network (multi-layer perceptron). We test the proposed models in the prediction of several TOC series in the Iberian Peninsula, where we carry out a comparison against a reference deseasonalizing model previously proposed in the literature. The results obtained show the good performance of some of the deseasonalizing models proposed in this paper.     

Cotton Fiber/ZrO2, A New Material for Adsorption of Cr(VI) Ions in Water

The natural cotton fiber was used to synthesize an anion exchange, containing ZrO₂ film on its surface, NCFZC (natural cotton fiber/ZrO₂ composite). This anion exchanger was produced by the reaction of the zirconium oxychloride and hydroxyl groups on surface of the natural cotton fiber. The material was used for Cr(VI) ions adsorption studies. Adsorption equilibrium time and optimum pH for Cr(VI) adsorption were found to be 6 h and 4.0, respectively. The Langmuir and Temkin isotherms were used to models adsorption equilibrium data. The adsorption capacity of NCFZC was found to be 1.33 mmol/g. Kinetic studies showed that the rate of adsorption of Cr(VI) on NCFZC obeyed a pseudo‐second‐order kinetic model.     

Degradation and Detoxification of Chlorophenols in Continuous‐Flow Fixed‐Bed Aerobic Reactors

An indigenous bacterial strain of Delftia sp. capable of degrading 2,4‐dicholorophenol and an indigenous bacterial community that degrades 2,4,6‐trichlorophenol (TCP) were employed to inoculate continuous down‐flow fixed‐bed reactors. Continuous‐reactors were constructed from PVC employing hollow PVC cylinders as support material. Synthetic wastewater was prepared by dissolving the corresponding chlorophenol in non‐sterile groundwater. Biodegradation was evaluated by spectrophotometry, chloride release, GC, and microbial growth. Detoxification was evaluated by using Daphnia magna as test organism. Delftia sp. was able to remove an average of 95.6% of DCP. Efficiency in terms of chemical oxygen demand (COD) was of 88.9%. The indigenous bacterial community that degrades TCP reached an average efficiency of 96.5 and 91.6% in terms of compound and COD removal, respectively. In both cases stoichiometric removal of chloride and detoxification was achieved. When synthetic wastewater feed was cut off for 7 days, both reactors showed a fast recovery after inflow restarting, reaching average outlet concentration values within 36 h. The promising behavior of the microorganisms and the low cost of the reactors tested allow us to suggest their possible application to remediation processes.     

Effects of seismic devices on transverse responses of piers in the Sutong Bridge

The Sutong Bridge in China opened to traffic in 2008, and is an arterial connection between the cities of Nantong and Suzhou. It is a cable-stayed bridge with a main span of 1,088 m. Due to a tight construction schedule and lack of suitable seismic devices at the time, fixed supports were installed between the piers and the girder in the transverse direction. As a result, significant transverse seismic forces could occur in the piers and foundations, especially during a return period of a 2500-year earthquake. Therefore, the piers, foundations and fixed bearings had to be designed extraordinarily strong. However, when larger earthquakes occur, the bearings, piers and foundations are still vulnerable. The recent rapid developments in seismic technology and the performance-based design approach offer a better opportunity to optimize the transverse seismic design for the Sutong Bridge piers. The optimized design can be applied to the Sutong Bridge(as a retrofit), as well as other bridges. Seismic design alternatives utilizing viscous fluid dampers(VFD), or friction pendulum sliding bearings(FPSB), or transverse yielding metallic dampers(TYMD) are thoroughly studied in this work, and the results are compared with those from the current condition with fixed transverse supports and a hypothetical condition in which only sliding bearings are provided on top of the piers(the girder can move "freely" in the transverse direction during the earthquake, except for frictional forces of the sliding bearings). Parametric analyses were performed to optimize the design of these proposed seismic devices. From the comparison of the peak bridge responses in these configurations, it was found that both VFD and TYMD are very effective in the reduction of transverse seismic forces in piers, while at the same time keeping the relative transverse displacements between piers and the box girder within acceptable limits. However, compared to VFD, TYMD do not interact with the longitudinal displacements of the girder, and have simpler details and lower initial and maintenance costs. Although the use of FPSB can also reduce seismic forces, it generally causes the transverse relative displacements to be higher than acceptable limits.     

Ornamental plants and the production of nature(s) in the Spanish real estate boom and bust: the case of Alicante

The Spanish real estate boom and bust of the 2000s caused immense economic, social, and environmental changes across the country. Massive urbanization, however, does not necessarily entail the end of nature and natural processes, instead marking a radical transformation of environments and societies. Through a political ecology approach, we analyze how ornamental species have become a fundamental part of new natures induced by urbanization in the Spanish province of Alicante. We connect the economic and ecological characteristics of ornamental plants like the palm tree to urbanization and real estate trends in Alicante. Our evidence indicates that, in Alicante, economic recession and environmental crises (manifested in the pests affecting palm trees) have mutually reinforced one other, creating a new geography of ecological desolation in many areas.