Long-Term Profiles of Wind and Weibull Distribution Parameters up to 600 m in a Rural Coastal and an Inland Suburban Area

An investigation of the long-term variability of wind profiles for wind energy applications is presented. The observations consists of wind measurements obtained from a ground-based wind lidar at heights between 100 and 600 m, in combination with measurements from tall meteorological towers at a flat rural coastal site in western Denmark and at an inland suburban area near Hamburg in Germany. Simulations with the weather research and forecasting numerical model were carried out in both forecast and analysis configurations. The scatter between measured and modelled wind speeds expressed by the root-mean-square error was about 10 % lower for the analysis compared to the forecast simulations. At the rural coastal site, the observed mean wind speeds above 60 m were underestimated by both the analysis and forecast model runs. For the inland suburban area, the mean wind speed is overestimated by both types of the simulations below 500 m. When studying the wind-speed variability with the Weibull distribution, the shape parameter was always underestimated by the forecast compared to both analysis simulations and measurements. At the rural coastal site although the measured and modelled Weibull distributions are different their variances are nearly the same. It is suggested to use the shape parameter for climatological mesoscale model evaluation. Based on the new measurements, a parametrization of the shape parameter for practical applications is suggested.     

Comparing the performances of four stochastic optimisation methods using analytic objective functions, 1D elastic full‐waveform inversion,and residual static computation

We compare the performances of four stochastic optimisation methods using four analytic objective functions and two highly non‐linear geophysical optimisation problems: one‐dimensional elastic full‐waveform inversion and residual static computation. The four methods we consider, namely, adaptive simulated annealing, genetic algorithm, neighbourhood algorithm, and particle swarm optimisation, are frequently employed for solving geophysical inverse problems. Because geophysical optimisations typically involve many unknown model parameters, we are particularly interested in comparing the performances of these stochastic methods as the number of unknown parameters increases. The four analytic functions we choose simulate common types of objective functions encountered in solving geophysical optimisations: a convex function, two multi‐minima functions that differ in the distribution of minima, and a nearly flat function. Similar to the analytic tests, the two seismic optimisation problems we analyse are characterised by very different objective functions. The first problem is a one‐dimensional elastic full‐waveform inversion, which is strongly ill‐conditioned and exhibits a nearly flat objective function, with a valley of minima extended along the density direction. The second problem is the residual static computation, which is characterised by a multi‐minima objective function produced by the so‐called cycle‐skipping phenomenon. According to the tests on the analytic functions and on the seismic data, genetic algorithm generally displays the best scaling with the number of parameters. It encounters problems only in the case of irregular distribution of minima, that is, when the global minimum is at the border of the search space and a number of important local minima are distant from the global minimum. The adaptive simulated annealing method is often the best‐performing method for low‐dimensional model spaces, but its performance worsens as the number of unknowns increases. The particle swarm optimisation is effective in finding the global minimum in the case of low‐dimensional model spaces with few local minima or in the case of a narrow flat valley. Finally, the neighbourhood algorithm method is competitive with the other methods only for low‐dimensional model spaces; its performance sensibly worsens in the case of multi‐minima objective functions.     

Seismic analysis of a tall metal wind turbine support tower with realistic geometric imperfections

The global growth in wind energy suggests that wind farms will increasingly be deployed in seismically active regions, with large arrays of similarly designed structures potentially at risk of simultaneous failure under a major earthquake. Wind turbine support towers are often constructed as thin‐walled metal shell structures, well known for their imperfection sensitivity, and are susceptible to sudden buckling failure under compressive axial loading. This study presents a comprehensive analysis of the seismic response of a 1.5‐MW wind turbine steel support tower modelled as a near‐cylindrical shell structure with realistic axisymmetric weld depression imperfections. A selection of 20 representative earthquake ground motion records, 10 ‘near‐fault’ and 10 ‘far‐field’, was applied and the aggregate seismic response explored using lateral drifts and total plastic energy dissipation during the earthquake as structural demand parameters. The tower was found to exhibit high stiffness, although global collapse may occur soon after the elastic limit is exceeded through the development of a highly unstable plastic hinge under seismic excitations. Realistic imperfections were found to have a significant effect on the intensities of ground accelerations at which damage initiates and on the failure location, but only a small effect on the vibration properties and the response prior to damage. Including vertical accelerations similarly had a limited effect on the elastic response, but potentially shifts the location of the plastic hinge to a more slender and, therefore, weaker part of the tower. The aggregate response was found to be significantly more damaging under near‐fault earthquakes with pulse‐like effects and large vertical accelerations than far‐field earthquakes without these aspects. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

La frana di Grassura (Fraz. di Cravagliana) in Val Mastellone

Riassunto Breve descrizione ed analisi dei movimenti franosi verificatisi a Grassura (Cravagliana) nel Gennaio e nel Marzo 1947.

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Summary Short report on the rockfalls occured at Grassura (Cravagliana) in January and March 1947.

     

Cold subduction zone in northern Calabria (Italy) revealed by lawsonite–clinopyroxene blueschists

Lawsonite blueschists are important markers of cold subduction zones, subjected to intense fluid circulation. This is because lawsonite preservation in exhumed blueschists and eclogites is typically linked to cold exhumation paths, accompanied by hydration. In the Catena Costiera (Calabria, southern Italy), lawsonite–clinopyroxene blueschists of the Diamante–Terranova Unit, affected by ductile shearing and retrogression, are exposed. Blueschists contain zoned clinopyroxene crystals, showing core–rim compositional variation from diopside to omphacite and hosting primary inclusions of lawsonite and titanite. Thermodynamic modelling of phase equilibria in the NCKFMASHTO system revealed peak metamorphic conditions of 2.0–2.1 GPa and 475–490°C for the Alpine subduction in Calabria. The subsequent post-peak metamorphic evolution mainly proceeded along a decompression and cooling path up to ~1.1 GPa and ~380°C. The final exhumation stages are recorded in the sheared blueschists where a mylonitic to ultramylonitic foliation developed at ~0.7 GPa and 290–315°C. Therefore, the P–T evolution of the Diamante–Terranova blueschists mostly occurred in the stability field of lawsonite, sustained by H₂O-saturated conditions during the exhumation path. The results of this study indicate that the blueschists underwent peak metamorphic conditions higher than previously thought, reaching a maximum depth of ~70 km under a very cold geothermal gradient (~6.6°C/km), during the Eocene subduction of the Ligurian Tethys oceanic crust in Calabria.     

A comparison of the Iberian and Ebro Basins during the Permian and Triassic, eastern Spain: A quantitative subsidence modelling approach

The Permian–Triassic sediments of the Iberian Plate are a well studied case of classical Buntsandstein–Muschelkalk–Keuper facies, with good sedimentological interpretations and precise datings based on pollen and spore assemblages, ammonoids and foraminifera. Synrift–postrift cycles are recorded in these facies, but there are only a few studies of quantitative subsidence analysis (backstripping method) and only a previous one using forward modelling for the quantification of synrift–postrift phases of this period.Here we present the results obtained by the quantitative analysis of fourteen field sections and oil-well electric log records in the Iberian and Ebro Basins, Spain. Backstripping analysis showed five synrift phases of 1 to 3 million years duration followed by postrift periods for the Permian–Triassic interval. The duration, however, shows lateral variations and some of them are absent in the Ebro Basin. The forward modelling analysis, assuming local isostatic compensation, has been applied to each observation point using one-layer and two-layer lithospheric configurations. The second one shows a better fit between observation and model prediction in a systematic way, so a two layer configuration is assumed for the sedimentary basin filling analysis. Lithospheric stretching factors β and δ obtained in the forward modelling analysis are never higher than 1.2, but sometimes β < 1 and simultaneously δ > 1 in the same section. If surficial extension is compensated by deep compression either at the roots of the rift basins or in far-away zones is not yet clear, but this anomaly can be explained using a simple shear extensional model for the Iberian and Ebro basins.     

Detection and estimation of mixed paddy rice cropping patterns with MODIS data

In this paper, we developed a more sophisticated method for detection and estimation of mixed paddy rice agriculture from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite data. Previous research demonstrated that MODIS data can be used to map paddy rice fields and to distinguish rice from other crops at large, continental scales with combined Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) and Land Surface Water Index (LSWI) analysis during the flooding and rice transplanting stage. Our approach improves upon this methodology by incorporating mixed rice cropping patterns that include single-season rice crops, early-season rice, and late-season rice cropping systems. A variable EVI/LSWI threshold function, calibrated to more local rice management practices, was used to recognize rice fields at the flooding stage. We developed our approach with MODIS data in Hunan Province, China, an area with significant flooded paddy rice agriculture and mixed rice cropping patterns. We further mapped the aerial coverage and distribution of early, late, and single paddy rice crops for several years from 2000 to 2007 in order to quantify temporal trends in rice crop coverage, growth and management systems. Our results were validated with finer resolution (2.5 m) Satellite Pour l’Observation de la Terre 5 High Resolution Geometric (SPOT 5 HRG) data, land-use data at the scale of 1/10,000 and with county-level rice area statistical data. The results showed that all three paddy rice crop patterns could be discriminated and their spatial distribution quantified. We show the area of single crop rice to have increased annually and almost doubling in extent from 2000 to 2007, with simultaneous, but unique declines in the extent of early and late paddy rice. These results were significantly positive correlated and consistent with agricultural statistical data at the county level (P < 0.01).     

Model initialization in a tidally energetic regime: A dynamically adjusted objective analysis

A simple improvement to objective analysis of hydrographic data is proposed to eliminate spatial aliasing effects in tidally energetic regions. The proposed method consists of the evaluation of anomalies from observations with respect to circulation model fields. The procedure is run iteratively to achieve convergence. The method is applied in the Bay of Fundy and compared with traditional objective analysis procedures and dynamically adjusted climatological fields. The hydrographic skill (difference between observed and model temperature and salinity) of the dynamically adjusted objective analysis is significantly improved by reducing bias and correcting the vertical structure. Representation of the observed velocities is also improved. The resulting flow is consistent with the known circulation in the Bay.     

Aquifer interactions with a polluted mountain river of Nicaragua

The interactions between a stream and nearby shallow aquifers were investigated in a mountain basin being polluted by mercury released during mining in central Nicaragua. Hourly data series of water levels and temperatures were analysed using cross‐correlation. Resistivity imaging was used to map the subsurface and to complement the hydrological data interpretation. The results show the complex hydrogeological conditions that characterize the region, with weathering and fractured rock as main contributors to groundwater transport. The resistivity images suggest the presence of two vertical dykes perpendicular to the stream, and zones rich in clay. The data series indicate a rapid response from the aquifers to recharge events, followed by immediate discharge on a yearly basis. Furthermore, alternating periods of stream infiltration and aquifer discharge were identified. This work demonstrates that surface water pollution is a threat to groundwater quality in the area. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.