A multivariate design framework for river confluences

ABSTRACT

Throughout the last decade copula functions were widely used to assess a wide range of hydrological problems, often focusing on two distinct variables. In many of these studies it was ignored whether the two variables of interest actually occurred simultaneously (e.g. two annual maximum time series were analysed in a multivariate statistical framework). Here we introduce a novel approach to derive bivariate design events using copula functions allowing both simultaneous and non-simultaneous occurrence of the variables to be modelled. The methodology is exemplarily applied to assess the combined flood occurrence at the confluence of the rivers Rhine and Sieg (Germany). The results underline the validity of the methodology. Employing a hydrodynamic numerical model furthermore shows that commonly used statistical approaches to select a single design event out of a vast number of possible combinations can be critical for practical design purposes.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor S. Grimaldi     

Carbon and hydrogen isotopic evidence for the origin of combustible gases in water-supply wells in north-central Pennsylvania

The origin of the combustible gases in groundwater from glacial-outwash and fractured-bedrock aquifers was investigated in northern Tioga County, Pennsylvania. Thermogenic methane (CH₄) and ethane (C₂H₆) and microbial CH₄ were found. Microbial CH₄ is from natural in situ processes in the shale bedrock and occurs chiefly in the bedrock aquifer. The δ¹³C values of CH₄ and C₂H₆ for the majority of thermogenic gases from water wells either matched or were between values for the samples of non-native storage-field gas from injection wells and the samples of gas from storage-field observation wells. Traces of C₂H₆ with microbial CH₄ and a range of C and H isotopic compositions of CH₄ indicate gases of different origins are mixing in sub-surface pathways; gas mixtures are present in groundwater. Pathways for gas migration and a specific source of the gases were not identified. Processes responsible for the presence of microbial gases in groundwater could be elucidated with further geochemical study.     

THE RUHOBOBO,RWANDA METEORITE: A NEW L6 CHONDRITE

Ruhobobo is a new meteorite which fell in Rwanda, Africa, in 1976. We found and analyzed olivine (Fa 23.4), opx (Fs 19.7, Wo 1.4), cpx (Fs 7.5, Wo 44.0), plagioclase (An 11.7, Or 5.6), chromite, “whitlockite”, kamacite, taenite and troilite. Based on these analyses and on microscopic observation, Ruhobobo is an unshocked L6 chondrite.     

Hubbert’s petroleum production model: an evaluation and implications for World Oil Production Forecasts

Following Hubberts successful prediction of the timing of US peak oil production, Hubberts model has been used extensively to predict peak oil production elsewhere. However, forecasts of world and regional peak oil and natural gas production using Hubberts methodology usually have failed, leading to the implicit belief that such predictions always will fail and that we need not worry about finite resources. A careful examination of Hubberts approach indicates that the most important reasons for his success in the US were stable markets, the high growth rate of demand, ready availability of low cost imports, and a reasonable estimate of easily extractable reserves. This analysis also shows that his model cannot predict ultimate oil reserves and that it should be considered an econometric model. Building on Hubberts vital insight, that cheap fossil fuel reserves are knowable and finite, one can state that for world peak oil production, political constraints should be much more important than resource constraints.     

Dating of prograde metamorphic events deciphered from episodic zircon growth in rocks of the Dabie–Sulu UHP complex, China

The timing of ultra-high pressure (UHP) metamorphism has been difficult to determine because of a lack of age constraints on crucial events, especially those occurring on the prograde path. New Sensitive High-Resolution Ion Microprobe (SHRIMP) U–Pb age and rare-earth element (REE) data of zircon are presented for UHP metamorphic rocks (eclogite, garnet peridotite, garnet pyroxenite, jadeite quartzite and garnet gneiss) along the Dabie–Sulu UHP complex of China. With multiphase metamorphic textures and index mineral inclusions within zircon, the Dabie data define three episodes of eclogite-facies metamorphism, best estimated at 242.1 ± 0.4 Ma, 227.2 ± 0.8 Ma and 219.8 ± 0.8 Ma. Eclogite-facies zircons of the Sulu UHP complex grew during two major episodes at 242.7 ± 1.2 and 227.5 ± 1.3 Ma, which are indistinguishable from corresponding events in the Dabie UHP complex. A pre-eclogite metamorphic phase at 244.0 ± 2.6 Ma was obtained from two Sulu zircon samples which contain low pressure–temperature (plagioclase, stable below the quartz/Ab transformation) and hydrous (e.g., amphibole, stable below  2.5 Gpa) mineral inclusions. In terms of Fe–Mg exchange of trapped garnet–clinopyroxene pairs within zircon domains, we are able to determine the Pressure–Temperature (PT) conditions for a specific episode of metamorphic zircon growth. We suggest that mineral phase transformations and associated dehydration led to episodic eclogite-facies zircon growth during UHP metamorphism ( 2.7 Gpa) began at 242.2 ± 0.4 Ma (n = 74, pooling the Dabie–Sulu data), followed by peak UHP metamorphism (>  4 Gpa) at 227.3 ± 0.7 Ma (n = 72), before exhumation (<  220 Ma) to quartz stability (~ 1.8 Gpa). The Dabie–Sulu UHP metamorphism lasted for about 15 Ma, equivalent to a minimum subduction rate of 6 mm/year for the descending continental crust.     

Evolution of the Mayo Kebbi region as revealed by zircon dating: An early (ca. 740 Ma) Pan-African magmatic arc in southwestern Chad

The Mayo Kebbi region in SW Chad is part of the NNE-SSW trending Neoproterozoic Central African Fold Belt (CAFB) and is made up of three calc-alkaline granitoid suites emplaced into a metavolcanic–metasedimentary sequence. The first suite is represented by mafic to intermediate rocks (gabbro-diorite and metadiorite) emplaced between 737 and 723 Ma during early Pan-African convergence. The second consists of the Mayo Kebbi batholith and includes tonalites, trondhjemites and granodiorites, emplaced during several magmatic pulses between 665 and 640 Ma. The third suite includes porphyritic granodiorite and hypersthene monzodiorite dated at ca. 570 Ma. The Mayo Kebbi domain extends southward into Cameroon and is interpreted as a middle Neoproterozoic arc stabilized at ca. 650 Ma. This study also revealed a diachronous evolution between Mayo Kebbi and western Cameroon (e.g., the Poli region). The overall evolution of this part of the CAFB is interpreted as the result of successive development of magmatic arcs, since ca. 740 Ma, and tectonic collage of three different domains (Adamawa-Yade, Mayo Kebbi, and West Cameroon) which, after suturing, were intruded by post-collisional granitoids (<600 Ma).