A probabilistic framework to evaluate the uncertainty of design hydrograph: case study of Swannanoa River watershed

ABSTRACT

This study presents a probabilistic framework to evaluate the impact of uncertainty of design rainfall depth and temporal pattern as well as antecedent moisture condition (AMC) on design hydrograph attributes – peak, time to peak, duration and volume, as well as falling and rising limb slopes – using an event-based hydrological model in the Swannanoa River watershed in North Carolina, USA. Of the six hydrograph attributes, falling limb slope is the most sensitive to the aforementioned uncertainties, while duration is the least sensitive. In general, the uncertainty of hydrograph attributes decreases in higher recurrence intervals. Our multivariate analysis revealed that in most of the return periods, AMC is the most important driver for peak, duration and volume, while time to peak and falling limb slope are most influenced by rainfall pattern. In higher return periods, the importance of rainfall depth and pattern increases, while the importance of AMC decreases.     

Improving Representation of Land‐use Maps Derived from Object‐oriented Image Classification

Object‐oriented (OO) image analysis provides an efficient way to generate vector‐format land‐cover and land‐use maps from remotely sensed images. Such image‐derived vector maps, however, are generally presented with congested and twisted polygons with step‐like boundaries. They include unclassified polygons and polygons with geometric conflicts such as unreadable small areas and narrow corridors. The complex and poorly readable representations usually make such maps not comply well with the Gestalt principle of cartography. This article describes a framework designed to improve the representation by resolving these problematic polygons. It presents a polygon similarity model integrating semantic, geometric and spectral characteristics of the image‐derived polygons to eliminate small and unclassified polygons. In addition, an outward‐inward‐buffering approach is presented to resolve the narrow‐corridor conflicts of a polygon and improve its overall appearance. A case study demonstrates that the implementation of the framework reduces the number of the polygons by 32% and the length of the polygon boundaries by 20%. At the same time, it does not cause distinct changes the distribution of land‐use types (less than 0.05%) and the overall accuracy (decreased only 0.02%) as compared with the original image‐derived land‐use maps. We conclude that the presented framework and models effectively improve the overall representation of image‐derived maps without distinct changes in their semantic characteristics and accuracy.     

Interactive GIS for environmental risk assessment

Abstract

Geographical Information Systems can be used for processing spatial data to assess the risks of environmental contamination. Their use depends upon the amount and quality of available data, the models for interpolation and calculation of health risk, data processing procedures and interactivity. In this study, it is shown that interactive use of GIS is important for obtaining physically relevant results. Three forms of interactivity are distinguished: interactivity by means of user interfacing, interactivity requiring additional information outside GIS and interactivity when changing the use of GIS. Three stages in which interaction with GIS are crucial can be distinguished: application of geostatistics, choice of appropriate models, and decision making. This study focuses on three cases in The Netherlands dealing with soil contamination and soil stress analysis and with implications for risk assessment in which interactivity within GIS is analysed. Emphasis is given to contour volumes of polluted soil, to combine GIS with deterministic models and to apply land use scenarios. Finally, there is a discussion of how some forms of interactivity could be replaced by expert systems.     

An assessment of evidence for pingos on Mars using HiRISE

Pingos are small hills with cores of ice, formed by injection and freezing of pressurized water. The possibility of pingos on Mars is of particular interest because of the associated implications for liquid water. We have systematically searched for candidate pingos using images from the High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment (HiRISE) camera. Since pingos are expected to develop surface fractures due to extension of the frozen ground over the ice core, we have searched for fractured features and identified a variety of mounds. These features are confined to the martian mid-latitudes, in the bands where gullies are also most common. The observed fractured mounds have a variety of morphologies and are likely of multiple origins. Isolated fractured mounds found on the floors of gullied craters in the southern hemisphere match the general morphologic characteristics of terrestrial pingos and are the best candidates for martian pingos, but there is currently no direct evidence for presence of ice cores and it is difficult to produce the necessary water volumes, so these features should still be interpreted with caution. Other fractured mounds appear more likely to be erosional remnants of an unusual mantling layer or possibly thermokarst structures. Flat-topped mounds in Utopia have some characteristics (fracture pattern and latitudinal distribution) consistent with pingos but differ in other aspects such as shape and setting. While we do not rule out a pingo origin, we prefer an erosional model for these enigmatic features.     

Spatial heterogeneity and temporal stability of throughfall under individual Quercus brantii trees

Spatio‐temporal patterns of throughfall (TF) have often been studied under forest canopies. Few reports, however, have been made on small‐scale TF variability in deciduous forest stands. In the present research, the spatial heterogeneity and temporal stability of TF under five individual persian oak trees (Quercus brantii var. Persica) was quantified. The research site was in the Zagros forests in western Iran, where mean annual precipitation and temperature are equal to 587.2 mm and 16.9 °C, respectively. Data from 23 rainfall events were aggregated to assess the spatial correlation of TF. Variograms for TF beneath two of the five trees reached a stable sill at the range of 5–6 m. The redistribution of TF within the canopy was highly variable in time, attributable to seasonal variation in canopy foliation and meteorological factors. As the length of the sampling period increased, the spatial variability of TF decreased and the temporal stability of the TF pattern increased. Time stability plots of TF normalized with respect to mean and variance showed a moderate general persistence for all individual trees. We conclude that single trees modify the spatial distribution of TF reaching the forest floors. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Lake surface temperatures in a changing climate: a global sensitivity analysis

We estimate the effects of climatic changes, as predicted by six climate models, on lake surface temperatures on a global scale, using the lake surface equilibrium temperature as a proxy. We evaluate interactions between different forcing variables, the sensitivity of lake surface temperatures to these variables, as well as differences between climate zones. Lake surface equilibrium temperatures are predicted to increase by 70 to 85 % of the increase in air temperatures. On average, air temperature is the main driver for changes in lake surface temperatures, and its effect is reduced by ~10 % by changes in other meteorological variables. However, the contribution of these other variables to the variance is ~40 % of that of air temperature, and their effects can be important at specific locations. The warming increases the importance of longwave radiation and evaporation for the lake surface heat balance compared to shortwave radiation and convective heat fluxes. We discuss the consequences of our findings for the design and evaluation of different types of studies on climate change effects on lakes.     

Investigating the effectiveness of the surfactant dioctyl sodium sulfosuccinate to disperse oil in a changing marine environment

We investigated the surfactant dioctyl sodium sulfosuccinate (DOSS) and its delivery system Corexit 9500A, used to disperse oil released during the Gulf of Mexico spill during the summer of 2010. DOSS is an organic sulfonic acid salt that acts as a synthetic detergent and disrupts the interfacial tension between the salt water and crude oil phases. The disruption reaches a maximum at or above the critical micelle concentration (CMC). The CMC for the surfactant was determined to be 0.17% solution in deionized water at a pH of 7.2 and a temperature of 21.1 °C (70°F). The CMC is lower in salt water, at 0.125% solution. This has been identified as a “salting out” effect (Somasundaran, 2006). The CMC of DOSS in both saline and deionized water occurred at lower-percent solutions at higher temperatures. The surface tension versus concentration plots can be modeled using a power equation, with correlation coefficients consistently over 0.94. Surface tension versus concentration plots are scalable to fit the desired temperature by the function f(x) = (1/1+X^α), where α =T₁/T₂. Tests measured the stability of the DOSS micelles when exposed to a continuous UVA radiation. This photodegradation is directly related to the duration of exposure.     

The thermal history of interplanetary dust particles collected in the Earth's stratosphere

Abstract— Fragments of 24 individual interplanetary dust particles (IDPs) collected in the Earth's stratosphere were obtained from NASA's Johnson Space Center collection and subjected to pulse-heating sequences to extract He and Ne and to learn about the thermal history of the particles. A motivation for the investigation was to see if the procedure would help distinguish between IDPs of asteroidal and cometary origin. The use of a sequence of short-duration heat pulses to perform the extractions is an improvement over the employment of a step-heating sequence, as was used in a previous investigation. The particles studied were fragments of larger parent IDPs, other fragments of which, in coordinated experiments, are undergoing studies of elemental and mineralogical composition in other laboratories. While the present investigation will provide useful temperature history data for the particles, the relatively large size of the parent IDPs (～40 μm in diameter) resulted in high entry deceleration temperatures. This limited the usefulness of the study for distinguishing between particles of asteroidal and cometary origin.