Effects of weather and snow conditions on reproduction and survival of semi-domesticated reindeer (R. t. tarandus)

In this work we investigated the effects of local weather and snow conditions on the reproduction and survival of semi-domesticated reindeer ( Rangifer t. tarandus ) from 1962 to 1987 in four separate study areas in northern Finland. Reindeer density had no negative effect on calf percentage in slaughter (October-January) in any area. The higher the number of very warm days or mean temperatures in summer, the lower was the calf percentage in all forested areas (Sodankylä, Muonio and Ivalo). In the Muonio area, calf percentage was also reduced by winters with abundant snow accumulation. In the open, mountainous Kevo area, calf percentage was reduced with a high number of warm days (mean T>0°C) during the previous December. However, if the previous May was warm in that area, it had an opposite effect. High reindeer densities seemed to increase mortality only in the Sodankylä area. Abundant snow accumulation during winter reduced the survival index of reindeer both in the Sodankylä and Ivalo areas. In the Muonio area, mortality of reindeer was increased with a high number of warm days in December. In the Kevo area, reindeer density or any climatic parameters could not explain yearly differences in mortality. This study indicated that permanent changes in climatic conditions could have different impacts in woodland as opposed to open, mountainous regions. In general, if global climatic change means weather instability in early winter and more snow, it also brings more difficulties for reindeer. However, if climate change means that snow melts earlier in the spring, some conditions could become more favourable for reindeer.     

Predicting the Peak in World Oil Production

The US Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently predicted that world oil production could continue to increase for more than three decades, based on the recent US Geological Survey (USGS) evaluation of world oil resources and a simple, transparent model. However, it can be shown that this model is not consistent with actual oil production records in many different regions, particularly that of the US, from which it was derived. A more careful application of the EIA model, using the same resource estimates, indicates that at best non-OPEC oil production can increase for less than two decades, and should begin to decline at the latest sometime between 2015 and 2020. OPEC at this point will completely control the world oil market and will need to meet increased demand as well as compensate for declining production of non-OPEC producers. OPEC could control the market even sooner than this, given its larger share of proven oil reserves, probable difficulties in transforming non-OPEC undiscovered reserves into proven reserves, and the converging interests of all oil producers as reserves are depleted. This has significant implications for the world economy and for US national security.     

Thirty Years of Research on Spatial Data Quality: Achievements,Failures, and Opportunities

This article reflects on the past 30 years of academic research in the field of spatial data quality and tries to identify the main achievements, failures, and opportunities for future research. Most of this reflection results from a panel discussion that took place during the Sixth International Symposium on Spatial Data Quality (ISSDQ) in July 2009.     

A Cromerian Complex stalagmite from the Mendip Hills,England

In order to provide a better chronological constraint on a British Middle Pleistocene interglacial, a large stalagmite boss from the Mendip Hills was selected for palaeoclimate data using pollen analysis. Dating analyses by thermal ionisation mass spectrometry (TIMS) of uranium–thorium ratios and by magnetostratigraphy constrain the age of the sample to 450–780 ka. The isotopic consistency of the TIMS analyses, plus the presence of luminescence laminations, suggest that the sample has been preserved under closed-system conditions. Pollen assemblages have been recovered from the speleothems, despite the fact that the pH of calcite deposition is usually greater than 7. Furthermore the evidence presented here indicates that the pollen was probably transported by the speleothem feedwater, rather than entering the cave aerially. The pollen record contained within the stalagmite is interpreted as early–mid-interglacial but does not have clear Cromerian affinity. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Illuminating Subsurface Microbial Water Quality Patterns Using Adenosine Triphosphate and Dynamic Time Warping Approaches

Aquifer microbial water quality evaluations are often performed by collecting groundwater samples from monitoring wells. While samples collected from continuously pumped sources are seldom disputed as representative of the aquifer, natural biofilm present in the vicinity of well screens may introduce unwanted microbial artefacts in monitoring wells that are only periodically sampled. The need for well water purging to obtain samples void of these artefacts has been widely recognized. However, purging methods are not standardized; many approaches presume that physico-chemical water quality stability achieved through the removal of 3 to 5 well volumes is indicative of the stability of target analytes. Using a data set collected from a shallow unconfined aquifer in Southern Ontario, Canada, the need for using dedicated approaches that account for the time-dependent nature of microbial water quality changes was demonstrated. Specifically, the utility of adenosine triphosphate (ATP) as a rapid, field-ready biochemical indicator of microbial water quality stability was investigated. This work shows that ATP concentrations reflect time-limited (bio)colloid transport processes that are consistent with other microbial water quality parameters monitored, but different from commonly measured physical and chemical water quality indicators of well purging adequacy. ATP concentrations occasionally fluctuated even after 3 or 4 h of purging, indicating that microbial artefacts attributable to biofilms in the vicinity of the well screen can still persist. The recurrence of characteristic ATP patterns in each well was systematically examined through the novel application of dynamic time warping (DTW), a nonparametric time series analysis approach. These patterns are believed to be linked with seasonal hydrogeological conditions, which warrant consideration in the design and interpretation of subsurface microbial water quality investigations.     

Spatial modeling of drought events using max-stable processes

With their severe environmental and socioeconomic impact, drought events belong to the most far-reaching natural disasters. Effects are tremendous in rain-fed agricultural areas as in Africa. We analyzed and modeled the spatio-temporal statistical behavior of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index as a risk indicator for drought, reflecting its stochastic effects on vegetation. The study used a data set for Rwanda obtained from multitemporal satellite remote sensor measurements during a 14-year period and divided into season-specific spatial random fields. Maximal deviations from average conditions were modeled with max-stable Brown–Resnick processes taking methodological and computational challenges into account. Those challenges are caused by the large spatial extent and the relatively short time span covered by the data. Extensive simulations enabled us to go beyond the observations and, thus, to estimate several important characteristics of extreme drought events, such as their expected return period.     

Does Pumping Volume Affect the Concentration of Micropollutants in Groundwater Samples?

Information on concentrations of micropollutants (such as pharmaceuticals, pesticides, and industrial chemicals) in most highly dynamic riverbank filtration (RBF) systems is lacking, in contrast to data on standard chemical parameters. Sampling protocols have thus far been based on the stabilization of standard chemical parameters in relatively pristine environments. To determine whether groundwater samples for micropollutant analysis can be taken at a similar pumping volume as samples for testing standard chemical parameters in both environments, three groundwater monitoring wells in an RBF system were sampled at two points in time (after pumping of 3 well volumes and after pumping of 15 well volumes). Micropollutant concentrations were not significantly different between the two sampling points; therefore, appropriate samples can be drawn after pumping 3 well volumes. For a specific microbiological parameter (leucin incorporation), a statistically significant difference was found.     

The formation and closure of the Big Breach of Sacalin spit associated with extreme shoreline retreat and shoreface erosion

We document a case of exceptionally large natural breaching of a sandy spit (Sacalin spit, Danube Delta) using multiannual to seasonal surveys of topography and bathymetry on successive cross-barrier and shoreface profiles, LiDAR data, satellite imagery, and wind and wave data. The large breach, which quickly reached 3.4 km in May 2014, is attributed to morphological preconditioning of the narrow (50–150 m) barrier, which was susceptible to breaching even during moderate storm conditions. The event switched the barrier's decadal evolution from low cross-shore transport to high cross-shore transport over the barrier, which is an order of magnitude larger than during the non-breach period. Upper shoreface erosion, as indicated by the extensive erosion down to −4 m, indicates that this zone is a significant source for the rebuilding of the barrier. Barrier recovery and widening trigger a negative feedback which limits the back-barrier sediment transfer. As a result, back-barrier deposition decreases whilst the barrier aggradation through overwash becomes more frequent. The Big Breach (TBB) closed naturally in three years. The very high deposition rate of sediment in the breach is a testimony of the high sediment volumes supplied by the longshore transport and the high sediment released through shoreface retreat, and resulted in widening the barrier to a maximum of 1 km. Since the newly-formed barrier shoreline retreated 500 m, this reveals that barrier breaching is an important mechanism which significantly accelerates the landward migration of the barrier system and is a proof of the highly non-linear morphodynamics involved in the barrier island translation. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Beach–dune interactions on the dry–temperate Danube delta coast

Beach–dune seasonal elevation changes, aeolian sand transport measurements, bathymetric surveys and shoreline evolution assessments were used to investigate annual and seasonal patterns of dune development on Sfântu Gheorghe beach, the Danube delta coast, from 1997 to 2004. Dune volume increased consistently (1.96 m³ m^− 1 y^− 1 to 5.1 m³ m^− 1 y^− 1) over this 7-year period with higher rates in the southward (downdrift) direction. Dune aggradation is periodically limited by storms, each of which marks a new evolutionary phase of the beach–dune system. As a consequence of the variable beach morphology and vegetation density during a year, foredune growth occurs during the April–December interval while between December and April a slightly erosive tendency is present. The pattern of erosion and deposition shown by the topographical surveys is in good agreement with the sand transport measurements and demonstrates the presence of a vigorous sand flux over the foredunes which is 20–50% smaller than on the beach. This high sand flux, due to low precipitation and sparse vegetation cover, creates an aerodynamically efficient morphology on the seaward dune slope. The seaward dune face accretes during low to medium onshore winds (5.5–12 m s^− 1) and erodes during high winds (> 12 m s^− 1).