Urban social vulnerability assessment with physical proxies and spatial metrics derived from air- and spaceborne imagery and GIS data

Risk management in urban planning is of increasing importance to mitigate the growing amount of damage and the increasing number of casualties caused by natural disasters. Risk assessment to support management requires knowledge about present and future hazards, elements at risk and different types of vulnerability. This article deals with the assessment of social vulnerability (SV). In the past this has frequently been neglected due to lack of data and assessment difficulties. Existing approaches for SV assessment, primarily based on community-based methods or on census data, have limited efficiency and transferability. In this article a new method based on contextual analysis of image and GIS data is presented. An approach based on proxy variables that were derived from high-resolution optical and laser scanning data was applied, in combination with elevation information and existing hazard data. Object-oriented image analysis was applied for the definition and estimation of those variables, focusing on SV indicators with physical characteristics. A reference Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) was created from census data available for the study area on a neighbourhood level and tested for parts of Tegucigalpa, Honduras. For the evaluation of the proxy-variables, a stepwise regression model to select the best explanatory variables for changes in the SVI was applied. Eight out of 47 variables explained almost 60% of the variance, whereby the slope position and the proportion of built-up area in a neighbourhood were found to be the most valuable proxies. This work shows that contextual segmentation-based analysis of geospatial data can substantially aid in SV assessment and, when combined with field-based information, leads to optimization in terms of assessment frequency and cost.     

Tracking the lithium isotopic evolution of the mantle using carbonatites

Carbonatites are mantle-derived, intraplate magmas that provide a means of documenting isotopic variations of the Earth's mantle through time. To investigate the secular Li isotopic evolution of the mantle and to test whether Li isotopes document systematic recycling of material processed at or near the Earth's surface into the mantle, we analyzed the Li isotopic compositions of carbonatites and spatially associated mafic silicate rocks. The Li isotopic compositions of Archean (2.7 Ga) to Recent carbonatites (δ⁷Li = 4.1 ± 1.3 (n = 23, 1σ)) overlap the range typical for modern mantle-derived rocks, and do not change with time, despite ongoing crustal recycling. Thus, the average Li isotopic composition of recycled crustal components has not deviated greatly from the mantle value (~ + 4) and/or Li diffusion is sufficiently fast to attenuate significant heterogeneities over timescales of 10⁸ years. Modeling of Li diffusion at mantle temperatures suggests that limited δ⁷Li variation in the mantle through time reflects the more effective homogenization of Li in the mantle compared to radiogenic isotope systems. The real (but limited) variations in δ⁷Li that exist in modern mantle-derived magmas as well as carbonatites studied here may reflect isotopic fractionation associated with shallow-level processes, such as crustal assimilation and diffusive isotopic fractionation in magmatic systems, with some of the scatter possibly related to low-temperature alteration.     

Nutrient availability in support of Karenia brevis blooms on the central West Florida Shelf: What keeps Karenia blooming?

Identifying nutrient sources, primarily nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P), sufficient to support high biomass blooms of the red tide dinoflagellate, Karenia brevis, has remained problematic. The West Florida Shelf is oligotrophic, yet populations >10⁶ cells L⁻¹ frequently occur and blooms can persist for months. Here we examine the magnitude and variety of sources for N and P that are available to support blooms. Annual average in situ or background concentrations of inorganic N in the region where blooms occur range 0.02–0.2 μM while inorganic P ranges 0.025–0.24 μM. Such concentrations would be sufficient to support the growth of populations up to ∼3×10⁴ cells L⁻¹ with at least a 1 d turnover rate. Organic N concentrations average 1–2 orders of magnitude greater than inorganic N, 8–14 μM while organic P concentrations average 0.2–0.5 μM. Concentrations of organic N are sufficient to support blooms >10⁵ cells L⁻¹ but the extent to which this complex mixture of N species is utilizable is unknown. Other sources of nutrients included in our analysis are aerial deposition, estuarine flux, benthic flux, zooplankton excretion, N₂-fixation, and subsequent release of organic and inorganic N by Trichodesmium spp., and release of N and P from dead and decaying fish killed by the blooms. Inputs based on atmospheric deposition, benthic flux, and N₂-fixation, were minor contributors to the flux required to support growth of populations >2.6×10⁴ cells L⁻¹. N and P from decaying fish could theoretically maintain populations at moderate concentrations but insufficient data on the flux and subsequent mixing rates does not allow us to calculate average values. Zooplankton excretion rates, based on measured zooplankton population estimates and excretion rates could also supply all of the N and P required to support populations of 10⁵ and 10⁶ cells L⁻¹, respectively, but excretion is considered as “regenerated” nutrient input and can only maintain biomass rather than contribute to “new” biomass. The combined estuarine flux from Tampa Bay, Charlotte Harbor, and the Caloosahatchee River can supply a varying, but at times significant level of N and P to meet growth and photosynthesis requirements for populations of approximately 10⁵ cells L⁻¹ or below. Estimates of remineralization of dead fish could supply a significant proportion of bloom maintenance requirements but the rate of supply must still be determined. Overall, a combination of sources is required to maintain populations >10⁶ cells L⁻¹.     

Effective collision strengths for forbidden transitions among the 3s23p3 fine-structure levels of Cl IIIIII

Effective collision strengths for the 10 astrophysically important fine-structure forbidden transitions among the ⁴S^o, ²D^o and ²P^o levels in the 3s²3p³ configuration of Cl  iii are presented. The calculation employs the multichannel R-matrix method to compute the electron-impact excitation collision strengths in a close-coupling expansion, which incorporates the lowest 23 LS target eigenstates of Cl  iii . These states are formed from the 3s²3p³, 3s3p⁴, 3s²3p²3d and 3s²3p²4s configurations. The Maxwellian-averaged effective collision strengths are presented graphically for all 10 fine-structure transitions over a wide range of electron temperatures appropriate for astrophysical applications [log  T (K)=3.3−log  T (K)=5.9]. Comparisons are made with the earlier seven-state close-coupling calculation of Butler & Zeippen, and in general excellent agreement is found in the low-temperature region where a comparison is possible [log  T (K)=3.3−log  T (K)=4.7]. However, discrepancies of up to 30 per cent are found to occur for the forbidden transitions which involve the ⁴S^o ground state level, particularly for the lowest temperatures considered. At the higher temperatures, the present data are the only reliable results currently available.     

On the use of radiosonde humidity observations in mid-latitude NWP

Summary We compare radiosonde observations of relative humidity with NWP versions of the Meteorological Office Unified Model, and attempt to understand the causes of the systematic differences seen. The differences are found to have a different structure in cyclonic and anticyclonic situations over the UK. In cyclonic situations the mid-tropospheric temperature and humidity differences could be due to model biases, consistent with the conservation of energy; the latent heating from precipitation of the model's excess moisture would remove the model's cold bias. There is also some evidence for observational bias. Wetting of the sonde sensor in cloud can cause a moist bias at higher levels. The Väisala RS80 sonde also appears to have a dry bias near saturation.The Unified Model has a parameterisation for stratiform cloud which calculates the fractional cloud cover in a gridbox from the box-average relative humidity, allowing for sub-grid-scale variability within the box. This scheme has been tuned to give reasonable cloud amounts with the model's relative humidities. The cloud amounts implied (by the scheme) for radiosonde relative humidities are systematically less than the observed cloud. So assimilation of the observed humidities can significantly degrade analyses and predictions of cloud. Bias corrections for the radiosonde humidities have been calculated to compensate for this.Experiments have been performed to test the effect of the bias correction on the assimilation and prediction of cloud and precipation. With the control system, cloud cover and precipitation spins-up during the forecast period; the bias correction improves this. A large improvement was also found when the relationship between the temperature and humidity assimilation was changed; it is better to assume that temperature and relative humidity errors are uncorrelated, rather than temperature and specific humidity.With 16 Figures     

An ocean observation system for monitoring the affects of climate change on the ecology and sustainability of pelagic fisheries in the Pacific Ocean

Climate change presents an emerging challenge to the sustainable management of tuna fisheries, and robust information is essential to ensure future sustainability. Climate and harvest affect tuna stocks, populations of non-target, dependent species and the ecosystem. To provide relevant advice we need an improved understanding of oceanic ecosystems and better data to parameterise the models that forecast the impacts of climate change. Currently ocean-wide data collection in the Pacific Ocean is primarily restricted to oceanographic data. However, the fisheries observer programs that operate in the region offer an opportunity to collect the additional information on the mid and upper trophic levels of the ecosystem that is necessary to complement this physical data, including time-series of distribution, abundance, size, composition and biological information on target and non-target species and mid trophic level organisms. These observer programs are in their infancy, with limited temporal and spatial distribution but recent international and national policy decisions have been made to expand their coverage. We identify a number of actions to initiate this monitoring including: consolidating collaborations to ensure the use of best quality data; developing consistency between sub-regional observer programmes to ensure that they meet the objectives of ecosystem monitoring; interrogating of existing time series to determine the most appropriate spatial template for monitoring; and exploring existing ecosystem models to identify suitable indicators of ecosystem status and change. The information obtained should improve capacity to develop fisheries management policies that are resilient and can be adapted to climate change.