Hydrological Outlook UK: an operational streamflow and groundwater level forecasting system at monthly to seasonal time scales

This paper describes the development of the first operational seasonal hydrological forecasting service for the UK, the Hydrological Outlook UK (HOUK). Since June 2013, this service has delivered monthly forecasts of streamflow and groundwater levels, with an emphasis on forecasting hydrological conditions over the next three months, accompanied by outlooks over longer time horizons. This system is based on three complementary approaches combined to produce the outlooks: (i) national-scale modelling of streamflow and groundwater levels based on dynamic seasonal rainfall forecasts, (ii) catchment-scale modelling where streamflow and groundwater level models are driven by historical meteorological forcings (i.e. the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction, ESP, approach), and (iii) a catchment-scale statistical method based on persistence and historical analogues. This paper provides the background to the Hydrological Outlook, describes the various component methods in detail and then considers the impact and usefulness of the product. As an example of a multi-method, operational seasonal hydrological forecasting system, it is hoped that this overview provides useful information and context for other forecasting initiatives around the world.     

Beach–dune interactions on the dry–temperate Danube delta coast

Beach–dune seasonal elevation changes, aeolian sand transport measurements, bathymetric surveys and shoreline evolution assessments were used to investigate annual and seasonal patterns of dune development on Sfântu Gheorghe beach, the Danube delta coast, from 1997 to 2004. Dune volume increased consistently (1.96 m³ m^− 1 y^− 1 to 5.1 m³ m^− 1 y^− 1) over this 7-year period with higher rates in the southward (downdrift) direction. Dune aggradation is periodically limited by storms, each of which marks a new evolutionary phase of the beach–dune system. As a consequence of the variable beach morphology and vegetation density during a year, foredune growth occurs during the April–December interval while between December and April a slightly erosive tendency is present. The pattern of erosion and deposition shown by the topographical surveys is in good agreement with the sand transport measurements and demonstrates the presence of a vigorous sand flux over the foredunes which is 20–50% smaller than on the beach. This high sand flux, due to low precipitation and sparse vegetation cover, creates an aerodynamically efficient morphology on the seaward dune slope. The seaward dune face accretes during low to medium onshore winds (5.5–12 m s^− 1) and erodes during high winds (> 12 m s^− 1).     

Subjectively Weighted Development Scenarios for Urban Allocation: A Case Study of South East Queensland

This article presents a GIS‐based methodology to integrate a measure of geographic attractiveness of localities in the process of allocating potential dwellings in the context of a large urban region. The methodology was developed for a study area in Brisbane‐South East Queensland (SEQ), known as the Sunbelt Region, a rapidly growing region and a popular tourist destination in Australia. In this article, we have used a multivariate technique to develop a set of parameterised linear equations to define underlying dimensions that drive residential location decision choices. Aesthetic and accessibility factors were identified in the factor analysis from data collected via a survey of Quality of Life. Spatial measures were based on a combination of network distance and kernel density estimation to calculate ‘aesthetic’ and ‘accessibility’ scenarios, which were then overlaid and multiplied by their subjective weights to create an ‘overall attractiveness scenario’. These development scenarios were integrated as a set of criteria to control the allocation of potential dwelling capacity over the next 25 years at a grid cell level.     

Inner-shell photoionization of O iii

A 25-state R -matrix calculation is performed to obtain photoionization cross-sections for transitions from the 1s²2s²2p²³P ground state of the O  iii ion. Results are obtained for a range of photon energies, including those at which K-shell photoionization processes take place. We compare our results with those from previous calculations. Excellent agreement is obtained. We also consider resonances owing to transitions of a 1s electron excited into the 2p orbital and compare with a recent calculation.     

Single zircon ages of migmatitic gneisses and granulites in the Obudu Plateau: Timing of granulite-facies metamorphism in southeastern Nigeria

A single zircon geochronological study of gneisses from the Obudu Plateau of southeastern Nigeria, using the evaporation technique, indicates that zircons recorded several Precambrian high-grade metamorphic events (Eburnean and Pan-African). Igneous and multifaceted metamorphic zircons yielded ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁶Pb ages of 2062.4 ± 0.4 Ma, 1803.8 ± 0.4 Ma and 574 ± 10 Ma, respectively and confirm for the first time that granulite-facies metamorphism affected the basement of southeastern Nigeria, resulting in the formation of charnockites and granulitic gneisses. The Pan-African high-grade event was coeval with the formation of granulites in Cameroon, Togo and Ghana and resulted from collisional processes during continental amalgamation to form the Gondwana supercontinent. The sources of the sediments, which were deposited at ≈605 Ma and metamorphosed at 574 Ma, comprise older igneous and metamorphic protoliths (including inherited xenocrystic zircons up to 2.5 Ga in age). The Palaeoproterozoic zircons seem to have survived Pan-African melting.     

THE TIMMERSOI†, NIGER,HYPERSTHENE CHONDRITE

The Timmersoi meteorite, a new type L5 hypersthene chondrite from the Niger Republic is described and microprobe analyses of its olivine, orthopyroxene, clinopyroxene, plagioclase, kamacite, taenite, troilite, chromite, whitlockite, chlorapatite and limonite presented. Veins and patches of black “glassy” material are regarded as products of shock melting. In places this material contains immiscible droplets of troilite each with one or more well-formed crystals of taenite. Calculations indicate equilibrium between olivine and orthopyroxene with a temperature of equilibration of about 850 °C.     

Anisotropy in the continental upper mantle: possible evidence from explosion seismology

Summary. Peculiarities of propagation in the upper mantle of western Europe are documented by profiles of stations recording body waves generated by explosions. Azimuthal variations of travel times and amplitudes of P waves and possible birefringence of S waves may be associated with an anisotropic layer at depths where the lithosphere-asthenosphere transition is supposed to be.     

Analysis and simulation of namurian sediments in central Scotland using a Markov-process model

Many difficulties inherent in analyzing cyclical successions in terms of an idealized cycle and, to a lesser extent, in terms of the modal cycle and composite sequence can be overcome by structuring data in terms of probabilities of upward transitions from one lithology to another. This enables a finite Markov-process model to be used. Transition probability matrices have been constructed from two versions of the same borehole section through paralic Namurian (Pendleian Stage, E ₁ ) sediments east of Stirling. The first version does not allow, but the second allows, adjacent items to be of the same lithology. The matrix derived from the first version indicates the following preferred upward succession of lithologies: coal, mudstone, siltstone, sandstone, seatclay, silty and sandy rooty beds, coal. A version of the Chi-square test strongly rejects the hypothesis that the lithologies were deposited in random order. The second matrix is used as computer input forTestmark, Stochex, andMarchain programs, the last of which stimulates a realistic vertical succession. The transition probability data fit readily into the broad framework of deltaic cycles.Published with permission of the Director, Institute of Geological Sciences.