Quantitative multi-risk analysis for natural hazards: a framework for multi-risk modelling

This paper introduces a generic framework for multi-risk modelling developed in the project ‘Regional RiskScape’ by the Research Organizations GNS Science and the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Ltd. (NIWA) in New Zealand. Our goal was to develop a generic technology for modelling risks from different natural hazards and for various elements at risk. The technical framework is not dependent on the specific nature of the individual hazard nor the vulnerability and the type of the individual assets. Based on this generic framework, a software prototype has been developed, which is capable of ‘plugging in’ various natural hazards and assets without reconfiguring or adapting the generic software framework. To achieve that, we developed a set of standards for treating the fundamental components of a risk model: hazards, assets (elements at risk) and vulnerability models (or fragility functions). Thus, the developed prototype system is able to accommodate any hazard, asset or fragility model, which is provided to the system according to that standard. The software prototype was tested by modelling earthquake, volcanic ashfall, flood, wind, and tsunami risks for several urban centres and small communities in New Zealand.     

Gold solubility in oxidized and reduced, water-saturated mafic melt

We have performed experiments to evaluate Au solubility in natural, water-saturated basaltic melts as a function of oxygen fugacity. Experiments were carried out at 1000 °C and 200 MPa, and oxygen fugacity was controlled at the fayalite-magnetite-quartz (FMQ) oxygen fugacity buffer and FMQ + 4. All experiments were saturated with a metal-chloride aqueous solution loaded initially as a 10 wt% NaCl eq. fluid. The stable phase assemblage at FMQ consists of basalt melt, olivine, clinopyroxene, a single-phase aqueous fluid, and metallic Au. The stable phase assemblage at FMQ + 4 consists of basalt melt, clinopyroxene, magnetite-spinel solid solution, a single-phase aqueous fluid, and metallic Au. Silicate glasses (i.e., quenched melt) and their contained crystalline material were analyzed by using both electron probe microanalysis (EPMA) and laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS). Measured Au concentrations in the quenched melt range from 4.8 μg g⁻¹ to 0.64 μg g⁻¹ at FMQ + 4, and 0.54 μg g⁻¹ to 0.1 μg g⁻¹ at FMQ. The measured solubility of Au in olivine and clinopyroxene was consistently below the LA-ICP-MS limit of detection (i.e., 0.1 μg g⁻¹). These melt solubility data place important limitations on the dissolved Au content of water-saturated, Cl- and S-bearing basaltic liquids at geologically relevant fO₂ values. The new data are compared to published, experimentally-determined values for Au solubility in dry and hydrous silicate liquids spanning the compositional range from basalt to rhyolite, and the effects of melt composition, oxygen fugacity, pressure and temperature are discussed.     

Ichnological data as a useful tool for deep-sea environmental characterization: a brief overview and an application to recognition of small-scale oxygenation changes during the Cenomanian�CTuronian anoxic event

The oceanic anoxic event at the Cenomanian?CTuronian transition (OAE-2) is a worldwide phenomenon related with variations in atmosphere?Cocean dynamics. This event coincides with significant changes in the palaeoenvironment determining marine mass extinction affecting numerous groups of organisms. Ichnological analysis of the Cenomanian?CTuronian boundary interval has been conducted in three selected sections from different ecological and depositional settings in the western Tethys. Indeed, a brief overview of existing knowledge in this domain highlights increasing recognition of the usefulness of trace fossils in the characterization of even minor-scale deep-sea environmental changes linked to sea-level dynamics. At the study sites, variations in ichnological features, including trace fossil composition, tiering patterns and ichnofabrics, can be related to fluctuations in bottom- and pore-water oxygenation during the Cenomanian?CTuronian interval. In the Barnasiówka section (Polish Outer Carpathians), changes between oxic/dysoxic??characterized by Chondrites, Planolites and even Thalassinoides??and euxinic conditions, without trace fossils or only with Chondrites, can be explained by variations in gravity flows influencing the benthic habitat. In the El Chorro and Hedionda sections (Betic Cordillera), longer anoxic intervals during the OAE-2, characterized by the absence of trace fossils, are interrupted by shorter dysaerobic and aerobic sub-events associated with Chondrites, Palaeophycus, Planolites, Thalassinoides, Trichichnus and Zoophycos, but showing significant differences between these two sections related to the palaeogeographically differentiated influence of upwelling conditions.     

Encounter norms, social carrying capacity indicators, and standards of quality at a marine protected area

This article examines visitors’ normative acceptance of encounters with boats at a marine protected area and the extent that the number of boats, size of boats, and size of boat on which individuals were traveling influences these encounter norms. Data were obtained from a survey of 439 people visiting Molokini Shoal Marine Life Conservation District in Hawai’i, and photographs depicting four levels of boat use and three proportions of boat size measured encounter norms. Number of boats most strongly influenced encounter norms, boat size was less influential, and the size of boats on which respondents were traveling had little influence. Visitors wanted fewer boats at this site and a majority would not accept encountering more than 15 or 16 boats at one time. When the impact of boat size was considered, they would not accept encountering more than 12 large boats to 17 small boats. Implications for future research and managing standards of quality and social carrying capacity indicators at this marine protected area are discussed.     

Marine renewable energy: The ecological implications of altering the hydrodynamics of the marine environment

Many countries now recognise the need for mitigation of climate change induced by human activities and have incorporated renewable energy resources within their energy policy. There are extensive resources of renewable energy within the marine environment and increasing interest in extracting energy from locations with either large tidal range, rapid flow with and without wave interaction, or large wave resources. However, the ecological implications of altering the hydrodynamics of the marine environment are poorly understood. Ecological data for areas targeted for marine renewable developments are often limited, not least because of the considerable challenges to sampling in high energy environments. In order to predict the scale and nature of ecological implications there is a need for greater understanding of the distribution and extent of the renewable energy resource and in turn, of how marine renewable energy installations (MREIs) may alter energy in the environment. Regional ecological implications of a MREI need to be considered against the greater and global ecological threat of climate change. Finally, it is recommended that the identification of species and biotopes susceptible to the removal of hydrokinetic energy could be a suitable strategy for understanding how a MREI may alter flow conditions.     

Early Palaeozoic deep subduction of continental crust in the Kyrgyz North Tianshan: evidence from Lu–Hf garnet geochronology and petrology of mafic dikes

High-pressure and ultrahigh-pressure (UHP) eclogite-bearing metamorphic assemblages in the North Tianshan of Kyrgyzstan are known from the Aktyuz and Makbal areas, where eclogites and garnet amphibolites are associated with continental rocks such as granitoid gneisses in Aktyuz and shallow-water clastic (passive margin?) metasediments in Makbal. We present the first Lu–Hf isotope data for an eclogite and two garnet amphibolite samples from the two metamorphic terranes which, combined with petrological analysis, tightly constrain the age of high-pressure metamorphism in the Kyrgyz North Tianshan. A five-point isochron for an Aktyuz eclogite sample provides a Lu–Hf age of 474.3 ± 2.2 Ma, and a four-point isochron on a Makbal sample corresponds to 470.1 ± 2.5 Ma. A prograde, subduction-related path is inferred for both samples with peak P–T conditions ranging from 1.4 to 1.6 GPa and 610–620 °C. A further Makbal sample provided a significantly older Lu–Hf age of 486 ± 5.4 Ma, most likely due to late alteration in the sample (late addition of unradiogenic Hf). We conclude that garnet growth in all three samples occurred around ca. 474 Ma and that these rocks likely experienced UHP metamorphism contemporaneously. Our results support previous geochronological evidence for an Early Ordovician collision belt in the North Tianshan and allow refinement of a tectonic model involving subduction of thinned continental crust to considerable depth along the margin of a small microcontinent.     

The building blocks of continental crust: Evidence for a major change in the tectonic setting of continental growth at the end of the Archean

Oceanic arcs are commonly cited as primary building blocks of continents, yet modern oceanic arcs are mostly subducted. Also, lithosphere buoyancy considerations show that oceanic arcs (even those with a felsic component) should readily subduct. With the exception of the Arabian–Nubian orogen, terranes in post-Archean accretionary orogens comprise < 10% of accreted oceanic arcs, whereas continental arcs compose 40–80% of these orogens. Nd and Hf isotopic data suggest that accretionary orogens include 40–65% juvenile crustal components, with most of these (> 50%) produced in continental arcs.Felsic igneous rocks in oceanic arcs are depleted in incompatible elements compared to average continental crust and to felsic igneous rocks from continental arcs. They have lower Th/Yb, Nb/Yb, Sr/Y and La/Yb ratios, reflecting shallow mantle sources in which garnet did not exist in the restite during melting. The bottom line of these geochemical differences is that post-Archean continental crust does not begin life in oceanic arcs. On the other hand, the remarkable similarity of incompatible element distributions in granitoids and felsic volcanics from continental arcs is consistent with continental crust being produced in continental arcs.During the Archean, however, oceanic arcs may have been thicker due to higher degrees of melting in the mantle, and oceanic lithosphere would be more buoyant. These arcs may have accreted to each other and to oceanic plateaus, a process that eventually led to the production of Archean continental crust. After the Archean, oceanic crust was thinner due to cooling of the mantle and less melt production at ocean ridges, hence, oceanic lithosphere is more subductable. Widespread propagation of plate tectonics in the late Archean may have led not only to rapid production of continental crust, but to a change in the primary site of production of continental crust, from accreted oceanic arcs and oceanic plateaus in the Archean to primarily continental arcs thereafter.     

A first deep seismic survey in the Sea of Marmara: Deep basins and whole crust architecture and evolution

Increased source strength, streamer length and dense spatial coverage of seismic reflection profiles of the SEISMARMARA Leg 1 allow to image the deep structure of the marine North Marmara Trough (NMT) on the strike-slip North Anatolian Fault (NAF) west of the destructive Izmit 1999 earthquake. A reflective lower crust and the Moho boundary are detected. They appear upwarped on an E-W profile from the southern Central Basin eastwards, towards more internal parts of the deformed region. Thinning of the upper crust could use a detachment suggested from an imaged dipping intracrustal reflector that would allow upper crustal material to be dragged from beneath it and above the lower crust, accounting for the extensional component but also southwest motion of the southern margin of the NMT. Sections across the eastern half of the NMT, crossing the Cinarcik and Imrali basins, reveal several faults that are active reaching into the basement and have varying strike and proportions of normal and strike-slip displacement. They might be viewed as petals of a large scale negative flower-structure that spreads over a width of 30 km at surface and is rooted deeper in the lithosphere. Under the Central Basin a very thick sediment infill is revealed and its extensional bounding faults are active and imaged as much as 8 km apart down to 6 km depth. We interpret them as two deep-rooted faults encompassing a foundering basement block, rather than being merely pulled-apart from a jog in a strike-slip above a décollement. The deep-basin lengthening would account for only a modest part of the proposed 60 km finite motion since 4 Myr along the same direction oblique to the NMT that sidesteps the shear motion from its two ends. Thus differential motion occurred much beyond the deep basins, like subsidence involving the NMT bounding faults and the intracrustal detachments. The complex partitioned motion localized on active faults with diverse natures and orientations is suggested to represent the overburden deformation induced from horizontal plane simple shear occurring in depth at lithospheric scale, and in front of the North Anatolian Fault when it propagated through the region.     

Late-Holocene equatorial environments inferred from deposition processes,carbon isotopes of organic matter,and pollen in three shallow lakes of Gabon,west-central Africa

Seven vibro-cores were collected from three shallow lakes of the Gabon (Kamalété, Nguène, Maridor) along a 300-km west–east transect close to the Equator. These lakes are located in very distinct landscapes: coastal forest-savanna mosaic, rain forest and savanna with colonising forest, respectively. Core chronologies were established by radiocarbon dating. Study of these lacustrine archives (textural variables, clay minerals, organic matter components, δ¹³C, pollen) allowed comparison of late Holocene environmental changes recorded at each site and with results from other studies. Lake Kamalété indicates minor climatic deterioration (increased drying and greater seasonality) between 1,410 and 500 cal. years BP, which is also recognised in southern Cameroon and east-central Africa. Lake Nguène was surrounded by dense moist forest throughout the last 4,110 years, but shows significant deterioration from ~2,800 cal. years BP, a phenomenon seen at nearby sites. Lake Maridor shows a decline of forest initiated a little after 3,800 cal. years BP, which indicates timing that is distinct from the two other sites. This was probably a response to local conditions (i.e. outlet damming). Although the three lakes display generally parallel climatic trends perhaps linked to SST oscillations, there is not perfect coherence between these three sites. Differences among the three basins may be attributable to local factors like groundwater hydrology and slope instabilities of such shallow lake systems in this equatorial region.