12,000-Year, preliminary results of the stable nitrogen and carbon isotope record from the Empakai Crater lake sediments, Northern Tanzania

The stable isotope compositions of organic carbon and nitrogen, the contents of organic carbon and nitrogen and C/N ratios for two cores recovered from the Empakai Crater at water depths of 11 and 20 m are used to document climatic changes in northern Tanzania. Eight ¹⁴C AMS dates determined on total organic matter (OM) indicate that the sedimentation rate in this lake is about 30 cm/ka for the late Pleistocene to early Holocene period. There are differences in the δ¹³C values of organic carbon between the two cores, which may be a result of differences in location from the present shoreline and of different water depths. In the deeper-water core the δ¹³C values show a general downcore decrease to the base of the core with a sharp change to lower values of about 4‰ at a depth of 100 cm (8.7 ka). The general trend of downcore decrease in ¹³C values can be attributed either to a systematic decrease in the relative proportion of C₄ type of OM, owing to an increase in precipitation and change in vegetation cover from grassland to forest, or to utilization of isotopically enriched carbon during photosynthesis. The δ¹⁵N values show a general downcore increase with again a sharp change of about 5‰ to lower values at about 8.7 ka. A sharp change of about 5‰ and 4‰ to more depleted values at a depth of 100 cm of both ¹⁵N and ¹³C, respectively, suggests either hiatus or abrupt change in climatic condition from wetter conditions to drier conditions. There is enhanced preservation of OM in the lake as depicted by high mean values of organic carbon and nitrogen at both sites.     

Uncertainty estimation of the global temperature trends for multiple radiosondes, reanalyses, and CMIP3/IPCC climate model simulations

Based on three groups of datasets that include radiosondes, reanalyses, and climate model simulations (e.g., Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, CMIP3) from 1979 to 2008, the interannual variability, global temperature trends, and their uncertainty using ensemble spread among intra-group and inter-group datasets have been discussed. The results show that the interannual temperature variability increased from the troposphere to stratosphere, and the maximum occurs around 50?hPa. The CMIP3 climate models have the largest discrepancy in the stratosphere. The intra-group correlations at 500?hPa generally show high similarity within each data group while the inter-group correlations between reanalyses and the CMIP3 climate model simulations indicate lesser similarity. In contrast, the inter-group correlation at 50?hPa is improved except with the Japanese 25-year Reanalysis Project (JRA-25) dataset, and the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) reanalysis shows a weak cross correlation. The global temperature trends are highly dependent on the individual data sources. Compared to the radiosondes, the reanalyses show a large ensemble spread of trends in the stratosphere, and the CMIP3 climate model simulations have a large ensemble spread in the height of the crossover point where tropospheric warming changes into stratospheric cooling. The largest ensemble spread among the reanalyses in the stratosphere is mainly from the large discrepancy in the JRA-25 reanalysis after 1998 and a relatively weak anomaly in the 20CR before 1986. The largest ensemble spread among the CMIP3 climate models in the troposphere is related to the influence of both volcanic eruptions and El Ni?o/La Ni?a–Southern Oscillation events. The strong anomalies corresponding to the volcanic eruptions of El Chichon in 1982 and Mt Pinatubo in 1991 are clearly identified in the stratosphere. These volcanic eruptions reduced the warming in the troposphere and strengthened the cooling in the stratosphere during the most recent 30?years.     

Comparison of uncertainty sources for climate change impacts: flood frequency in England

This paper investigates the uncertainty in the impact of climate change on flood frequency in England, through the use of continuous simulation of river flows. Six different sources of uncertainty are discussed: future greenhouse gas emissions; Global Climate Model (GCM) structure; downscaling from GCMs (including Regional Climate Model structure); hydrological model structure; hydrological model parameters and the internal variability of the climate system (sampled by applying different GCM initial conditions). These sources of uncertainty are demonstrated (separately) for two example catchments in England, by propagation through to flood frequency impact. The results suggest that uncertainty from GCM structure is by far the largest source of uncertainty. However, this is due to the extremely large increases in winter rainfall predicted by one of the five GCMs used. Other sources of uncertainty become more significant if the results from this GCM are omitted, although uncertainty from sources relating to modelling of the future climate is generally still larger than that relating to emissions or hydrological modelling. It is also shown that understanding current and future natural variability is critical in assessing the importance of climate change impacts on hydrology.     

The STAGES view of red spirals and dusty red galaxies: mass-dependent quenching of star formation in cluster infall

We investigate the properties of optically passive spirals and dusty red galaxies in the A901/2 cluster complex at redshift ∼0.17 using rest-frame near-ultraviolet–optical spectral energy distributions, 24-μm infrared data and Hubble Space Telescope morphologies from the STAGES data set. The cluster sample is based on COMBO-17 redshifts with an rms precision of  σ _cz ≈ 2000 km s⁻¹  . We find that 'dusty red galaxies' and 'optically passive spirals' in A901/2 are largely the same phenomenon, and that they form stars at a substantial rate, which is only four times lower than that in blue spirals at fixed mass. This star formation is more obscured than in blue galaxies and its optical signatures are weak. They appear predominantly in the stellar mass range of  log  M _*/M_⊙=[10, 11]  where they constitute over half of the star-forming galaxies in the cluster; they are thus a vital ingredient for understanding the overall picture of star formation quenching in clusters. We find that the mean specific star formation rate (SFR) of star-forming galaxies in the cluster is clearly lower than in the field, in contrast to the specific SFR properties of blue galaxies alone, which appear similar in cluster and field. Such a rich red spiral population is best explained if quenching is a slow process and morphological transformation is delayed even more. At  log  M _*/M_⊙ < 10  , such galaxies are rare, suggesting that their quenching is fast and accompanied by morphological change. We note that edge-on spirals play a minor role; despite being dust reddened they form only a small fraction of spirals independent of environment.     

Seasonality change and the third millennium BP rainforest crisis in southern Cameroon (Central Africa)

The third millennium BP crisis of the central African rainforest is not sufficiently understood. The low resolution of most pollen profiles and a large plateau of the calibration curve aggravate the exact dating of the event, and its causal climatic parameters are debated. We present a high-resolution pollen profile from the swamp site Nyabessan in the southern Cameroonian rainforest, covering the period 3100-2300 cal yr BP. Between 3100 and 2500 cal yr BP, the climate was favourable for a regional evergreen forest with Caesalpiniaceae and Lophira and a local Raphia swamp forest. Around 2500/2400 cal yr BP, a significant decrease of mature forest and swamp forest taxa and an increase of pioneers indicate that the rain forest was seriously disturbed and replaced by secondary formations. The dominance of Trema orientalis, a pioneer well adapted to seasonal desiccation, points to a much more accentuated seasonality after 2500 cal yr BP, which seems to be linked to a southwards shift of the ITCZ during the northern hemisphere winter months. We propose that the rain forest crisis between 2500 and 2200 cal BP created favourable conditions for farming and paved the way for a major expansion of Bantu speaking populations.     

More on the narrowing of impact broadened radio recombination lines at high principal quantum number

Recently Alexander and Gulyaev have suggested that the apparent decrease in impact broadening of radio recombination lines seen at high principal quantum number n may be a product of the data reduction process, possibly resulting from the presence of noise on the telescope spectra that is not present on the calculated comparison spectra. This is an interesting proposal. However, there are serious problems with their analysis that need to be pointed out. Perhaps the most important of these is the fact that for principal quantum numbers below n=200, where the widths are not in question, their processed generated profile widths do not fit the widths of the processed lines obtained at the telescope. After processing, the halfwidths of the generated and telescope profiles must agree below n=200 if we are to believe that the processed generated linewidths above n=200 are meaningful. Theirs do not. Furthermore, we find that after applying the linewidth reduction factors found by Alexander and Gulyaev for their noise added profiles to our generated profiles to simulate their noise adding effect, the processed widths we obtain still do not come close to explaining the narrowing seen in the telescope lines for n values in the range 200<n<250. It is concluded that what is needed to solve this mystery is a completely new approach using a different observing technique instead of simply a further manipulation of the frequency-switched data.     

The topography of Iapetus' leading side

We have used Cassini stereo images to study the topography of Iapetus' leading side. A terrain model derived at resolutions of 4-8 km reveals that Iapetus has substantial topography with heights in the range of −10 km to +13 km, much more than observed on the other middle-sized satellites of Saturn so far. Most of the topography is older than 4 Ga [Neukum, G., Wagner, R., Denk, T., Porco, C.C., 2005. Lunar Planet. Sci. XXXVI. Abstract 2034] which implies that Iapetus must have had a thick lithosphere early in its history to support this topography. Models of lithospheric deflection by topographic loads provide an estimate of the required elastic thickness in the range of 50-100 km. Iapetus' prominent equatorial ridge [Porco, C.C., and 34 colleagues, 2005. Science 307, 1237-1242] reaches widths of 70 km and heights of up to 13 km from their base within the modeled area. The morphology of the ridge suggests an endogenous origin rather than a formation by collisional accretion of a ring remnant [Ip, W.-H., 2006. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, doi:10.1029/2005GL025386. L16203]. The transition from simple to complex central peak craters on Iapetus occurs at diameters of 11±3 km. The central peaks have pronounced conical shapes with flanking slopes of typically 11° and heights that can rise above the surrounding plains. Crater depths seem to be systematically lower on Iapetus than on similarly sized Rhea, which if true, may be related to more pronounced crater-wall slumping (which widens the craters) on Iapetus than on Rhea. There are seven large impact basins with complex morphologies including central peak massifs and terraced walls, the largest one reaches 800 km in diameter and has rim topography of up to 10 km. Generally, no rings are observed with the basins consistent with a thick lithosphere but still thin enough to allow for viscous relaxation of the basin floors, which is inferred from crater depth-to-diameter measurements. In particular, a 400-km basin shows up-domed floor topography which is suggestive of viscous relaxation. A model of complex crater formation with a viscoplastic (Bingham) rheology [Melosh, H.J., 1989. Impact Cratering. Oxford Univ. Press, New York] of the impact-shocked icy material provides an estimate of the effective cohesion/viscosity at . The local distribution of bright and dark material on the surface of Iapetus is largely controlled by topography and consistent with the dark material being a sublimation lag deposit originating from a bright icy substrate mixed with the dark components, but frost deposits are possible as well.     

Global-scale near infrared variability on Mars: Analysis of 2003 Mars opposition observations from HST/NICMOS

We have used HST/NICMOS to observe approximately 57% of the martian surface in 7 narrow band filters (0.97, 1.08, 1.13, 1.66, 1.90, 2.12, and 2.15 μm) during the 2003 opposition (Ls∼250°) and at a resolution of ∼12 km/pixel. Principal components analysis (PCA) of the dataset has identified regional variability on scales of hundreds of kilometers associated with differences in the near-infrared spectrum of Mars. Visualization of the data in principal component space has allowed us to identify spectral endmembers associated with the south polar cap, the classic bright terrains, northern Syrtis Major, southern Syrtis Major, Tyrrhena Terra, and Acidalia Planitia. The two Syrtis Major endmembers and the Tyrrhena Terra endmember differ in their absolute reflectivities but have the same spectral shape at wavelengths longer than 1.6 μm. The Acidalia endmember is distinct from the other dark terrain endmembers because it exhibits a strong negative near-IR spectral slope. Comparisons with spectral library measurements cannot provide unique constraints on the surface mineralogy for these sparsely-sampled spectral data. However, the observed spectral variations between Tyrrhena Terra and Syrtis Major are consistent with variations in iron- and sulfur-bearing minerals, and the relatively strong negative spectral slope in the spectrum of Acidalia is consistent with the presence of hydrated alteration products. Additional comparison with previous NICMOS observations taken in 1997 at Ls∼150° indicate that the average near-IR spectral slope of the Acidalia region is more negative during the late northern fall than during the mid northern summer. This may indicate seasonal variations in the presence of either adsorbed water or re-hydrated minerals in the regolith of Acidalia.     

Multi-wavelength observations of Asteroid 2100 Ra-Shalom

We observed near-Earth asteroid (NEA) 2100 Ra-Shalom over a six-year period, obtaining rotationally resolved spectra in the visible, near-infrared, thermal-infrared, and radar wavelengths. We find that Ra-Shalom has an effective diameter of Deff=2.3±0.2 km, rotation period P=19.793±0.001 h, visual albedo pv=0.13±0.03, radar albedo , and polarization ratio μc=0.25±0.04. We used our radar observations to generate a three-dimensional shape model which shows several structural features of interest. Based on our thermal observations, Ra-Shalom has a high thermal inertia of ∼10³ J m⁻² s^−0.5 K⁻¹, consistent with a coarse or rocky surface and the inferences of others [Harris, A.W., Davies, J.K., Green, S.F., 1998. Icarus 135, 441-450; Delbo, M., Harris, A.W., Binzel, R.P., Pravec, P., Davies, J.K., 2003. Icarus 166, 116-130]. Our spectral data indicate that Ra-Shalom is a K-class asteroid and we find excellent agreement between our spectra and laboratory spectra of the CV3 meteorite Grosnaja. Our spectra show rotation-dependent variations consistent with global variations in grain size. Our radar observations show rotation-dependent variations in radar albedo consistent with global variations in the thickness of a relatively thin regolith.     

The dark matter environment of the Abell 901/902 supercluster: a weak lensing analysis of the HST STAGES survey

We present a high-resolution dark matter reconstruction of the   z = 0.165  Abell 901/902 supercluster from a weak lensing analysis of the Hubble Space Telescope STAGES survey. We detect the four main structures of the supercluster at high significance, resolving substructure within and between the clusters. We find that the distribution of dark matter is well traced by the cluster galaxies, with the brightest cluster galaxies marking out the strongest peaks in the dark matter distribution. We also find a significant extension of the dark matter distribution of Abell 901a in the direction of an infalling X-ray group Abell 901α. We present mass, mass-to-light and mass-to-stellar mass ratio measurements of the structures and substructures that we detect. We find no evidence for variation of the mass-to-light and mass-to-stellar mass ratio between the different clusters. We compare our space-based lensing analysis with an earlier ground-based lensing analysis of the supercluster to demonstrate the importance of space-based imaging for future weak lensing dark matter 'observations'.