Wind storm risk management: sensitivity of return period calculations and spread on the territory

Modeling and forecasting damage from wind storms is a major issue for insurance companies. In this article, we focus on the sensitivity of estimations of return periods for extreme events with respect to modeling assumptions and the type of input data. Numerous variables play a role: the quality of data concerning the location of insured buildings and weather report homogeneity, missing updates for correcting non-stationarities concerning the insurance portfolio history, ground roughness or climate change, the evolution of the model after an unprecedented event such as the Lothar storm observed in 1999 in Europe, temporal aggregation of daily events over several days, where events could span over several days up to one week, and storm trajectories, which could change due to global warming or sweep larger areas. Our work explores three important aspects. First, we highlight the geographic heterogeneity of the spatial distribution of wind speeds and the resulting damages. Therefore, we propose to partition the French territory into 6 relatively homogeneous storm zones, based on the dependence among observed wind speeds and geographic distance. Second, we extend a storm index—defined in Mornet et al. (Risk Anal 35:2029–2056, 2015)—to take into account geographic heterogeneity, and we analyze its tail behavior to show the difficulties met to obtain reliable results on extreme events. Third, we explore the calculation of Solvency Capital Requirements based on a model that we propose for the annual claim amount distribution. The purpose of our analysis is to quantify and to point out the high level of uncertainty in the computation of return periods and of other quantities strongly influenced by extreme events.     

Inter-laboratory comparison of oxygen isotope compositions from biogenic silica

Several techniques have been introduced in the last decades for the dehydration and release of O₂ from biogenic silica (opal-A) for oxygen-isotope analysis. However, only one silica standard is universally available: a quartz standard (NBS28) distributed by the IAEA, Vienna. Hence, there is a need for biogenic silica working standards. This paper compares the existing methods of oxygen-isotope analyses of opal-A and aims to characterize additional possible working standards to calibrate the δ¹⁸O values of biogenic silica. For this purpose, an inter-laboratory comparison was organized. Six potential working standard materials were analysed repeatedly against NBS28 by eight participating laboratories using their specific analytical methods. The materials cover a wide range of δ¹⁸O values (+23 to +43‰) and include diatoms (marine, lacustrine), phytoliths and synthetically-produced hydrous silica. To characterize the proposed standards, chemical analyses and imaging by scanning electron microscopy (SEM) were also performed. Despite procedural differences at each laboratory, all methods are in reasonable agreement with a standard deviation (SD) for δ¹⁸O values between 0.3‰ and 0.9‰ (1σ). Based on the results, we propose four additional biogenic silica working standards (PS1772-8: 42.8‰; BFC: 29.0‰; MSG60: 37.0‰; G95-25-CL leaves: 36.6‰) for δ¹⁸O analyses, available on request through the relevant laboratories.     

Global climate models as forcing for regional ocean modeling: a sensitivity study in the Iberian Basin (Eastern North Atlantic)

This work evaluates the performance of several global climate models (GCMs) as forcing of a regional ocean model configuration centered in the Iberian Basin. The study is divided in two parts. First, the output of nine GCMs is analyzed based on the fields needed to force the ocean model (Regional Ocean Modelling System—ROMS). GCMs differ greatly between them and their performance depends on the field. In the second part, the two GCMs with the worst performances in both extremes of the ensemble are used as forcing for two ROMS simulations, with the purpose of assessing the range of uncertainty comprised in this set of GCMs. Two other ROMS runs are setup: one climatologically forced control run, and one forced with the average of all the nine GCMs—the ensemble mean. Results show that the tendency of overestimation/underestimation of the forcings is reflected in the modeled hydrography, both at the surface and deeper layers down to 500 m. Nevertheless, in terms of circulation, all four runs reproduce the Azores Current, as well as the coastal transition zone seasonality (winter poleward flow and summer upwelling-associated equatorward flow). The CGCMs output performance as forcing depends on the forcing variable: one performs well for one or more variables, but badly for others, and which field is well or badly reproduced varies for each CGCM. Therefore, there is not a single CGCM having the best forcing for all variables. Hence, our results indicate that the most adequate approach consists of using the ensemble mean as forcing rather than using an individual model. This is supported by the general low overall (i.e. for all forcing variables) errors of the ensemble mean regarding the control climatological dataset, and the good comparison of the ensemble-forced ROMS run with the control run.     

Morphology, distribution and origin of recent submarine landslides of the Ligurian Margin (North-western Mediterranean): some insights into geohazard assessment

Based on new multibeam bathymetric data, seismic-reflection profiles and side-scan sonar images, a great number of submarine failures of various types and sizes was identified along the northern margin of the Ligurian Basin and characterized with 3 distinct end-members concerning their location on the margin, sedimentary processes and possible triggering mechanisms. They include superficial landslides mainly located in the vicinity of the main mountain-supplied rivers and on the inner walls of canyons (typically smaller that 10⁸ m³ in volume: Type 1), deep scars 100?C500 m high along the base of the continental slope (Type 2), and large-scale scars and Mass Transport Deposits (MTDs) affecting the upper part of the slope (Type 3 failures). The MTDs are located in different environmental contexts of the margin, including the deep Var Sedimentary Ridge (VSR) and the upper part of the continental slope in the Gulf of Genova (Finale Slide and Portofino Slide), with volumes of missing sediment reaching up to 1.5 × 10⁹ m³. High sedimentation rates related to hyperpycnal flows, faults and earthquake activity, together with sea-level fluctuations are the main factors invoked to explain the distribution and sizes of these different failure types.     

Travelling and hunting in a changing Arctic: assessing Inuit vulnerability to sea ice change in Igloolik, Nunavut

The observations of community members and instrumental records indicate changes in sea ice around the Inuit community of Igloolik, in the Canadian territory of Nunavut. This paper characterizes local vulnerability to these changes, identifying who is vulnerable, to what stresses, and why, focusing on local and regional use of sea ice for the harvesting of renewable resources and travel. This analysis is coupled with instrumental and sea ice data to evaluate changing temperature/wind/sea ice trends over time, to complement local observations. We demonstrate the relationships between changing sea ice conditions/dynamics and harvesting activities (i.e. dangers and accessibility), with specific emphasis on ringed seal and walrus seasonal hunting, to illustrate current sea ice exposures that hunters are facing. Community members are adapting to such changes, as they have done for generations. However, current adaptive capacity is both enabled, and constrained, by social, cultural, and economic factors that manifest within the modern northern Hamlet. Enabling factors include the ability of hunters to manage or share the risks associated with sea ice travel, as well as through their flexibility in resource use, as facilitated by sophisticated local knowledge and land/navigational skills. Constraining factors include the erosion of land-based knowledge and skills, altered sharing networks, as well as financial and temporal limitations on travel/harvesting. The differential ability of community members to balance enabling and constraining factors, in relation to current exposures, comprises their level of vulnerability to sea ice change.     

Mercury distribution, partitioning and speciation in coastal vs. inland High Arctic snow

Atmospheric mercury deposition on snow at springtime has been reported in polar regions, potentially posing a threat to coastal and inland ecosystems receiving meltwaters. However, the post-depositional fate of Hg in snow is not well known, and no data are available on Hg partitioning in polar snow. During snowmelt, we conducted a survey of Hg concentrations, partitioning and speciation in surface snow and at depth, over sea ice and over land along a 100 km transect across Cornwallis Island, NU, Canada. Total Hg concentrations [THg] in surface snow were low (less than 20 pmol L⁻¹) and were significantly higher in marine vs. inland environments. Particulate Hg in surface snow represented up to 90% of total Hg over sea ice and up to 59% over land. At depth, [THg] at the snow/sea ice interface (up to 300 pmol L⁻¹) were two orders of magnitude higher than at the snow/lake ice interface (ca. 2.5 pmol L⁻¹). Integrated snow columns, sampled over sea-ice and over land, showed that particulate Hg was mostly bound to particles ranging from 0.45 to 2.7 μm. Moreover, melting snowpacks over sea ice and over lake ice contribute to increase [THg] at the water/ice interfaces. This study indicates that, at the onset of snowmelt, most of the Hg in snow is in particulate form, particularly over sea ice. Low Hg levels in surface snow suggest that Hg deposited through early spring deposition events is partly lost to the atmosphere from the snowpack before snowmelt. The sea ice/snow interface may constitute a site for Hg accumulation, however. Further understanding of the cycling of mercury at the sea ice/snow and sea ice/seawater interfaces is thus warranted to fully understand how mercury enters the arctic food webs.     

Investigation of the sampling performance of ensemble-based methods with a simple reservoir model

The application of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) for history matching petroleum reservoir models has been the subject of intense investigation during the past 10 years. Unfortunately, EnKF often fails to provide reasonable data matches for highly nonlinear problems. This fact motivated the development of several iterative ensemble-based methods in the last few years. However, there exists no study comparing the performance of these methods in the literature, especially in terms of their ability to quantify uncertainty correctly. In this paper, we compare the performance of nine ensemble-based methods in terms of the quality of the data matches, quantification of uncertainty, and computational cost. For this purpose, we use a small but highly nonlinear reservoir model so that we can generate the reference posterior distribution of reservoir properties using a very long chain generated by a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithm. We also consider one adjoint-based implementation of the randomized maximum likelihood method in the comparisons.     

Calibration for the shear strain of 3-component borehole strainmeters in eastern Taiwan through Earth and ocean tidal waveform modeling

We propose an approach for calibrating the horizontal tidal shear components [(differential extension (\(\gamma _1\)) and engineering shear (\(\gamma _2\))] of two Sacks–Evertson (in Pap Meteorol Geophys 22:195–208, 1971) SES-3 borehole strainmeters installed in the Longitudinal Valley in eastern Taiwan. The method is based on the waveform reconstruction of the Earth and ocean tidal shear signals through linear regressions on strain gauge signals, with variable sensor azimuth. This method allows us to derive the orientation of the sensor without any initial constraints and to calibrate the shear strain components \(\gamma _1\) and \(\gamma _2\) against \(M_2\) tidal constituent. The results illustrate the potential of tensor strainmeters for recording horizontal tidal shear strain.