Simulating water temperatures and stratification of a pre‐alpine lake with a hydrodynamic model: calibration and sensitivity analysis of climatic input parameters

We report on the calibration of the one‐dimensional hydrodynamic lake model Dynamic Reservoir Simulation Model to simulate the water temperature conditions of the pre‐alpine Lake Ammersee (southeast Germany) that is a representative of deep and large lakes in this region. Special focus is given to the calibration in order to reproduce the correct thermal distribution and stratification including the time of onset and duration of summer stratification. To ensure the application of the model to investigate the impact of climate change on lakes, an analysis of the model sensitivity under stepwise modification of meteorological input parameters (air temperature, wind speed, precipitation, global radiation, cloud cover, vapour pressure and tributary water temperature) was conducted. The total mean error of the calibration results is ?0.23 °C, the root mean square error amounts to 1.012 °C. All characteristics of the annual stratification cycle were reproduced accurately by the model. Additionally, the simulated deviations for all applied modifications of the input parameters for the sensitivity analysis can be differentiated in the high temporal resolution of monthly values for each specific depth. The smallest applied alteration to each modified input parameter caused a maximum deviation in the simulation results of at least 0.26 °C. The most sensitive reactions of the model can be observed through modifications of the input parameters air temperature and wind speed. Hence, the results show that further investigations at Lake Ammersee, such as coupling the hydrodynamic model with chemo‐dynamic models to assess the impact of changing climate on biochemical conditions within lakes, can be carried out using Dynamic Reservoir Simulation Model. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Diamond precipitation from ascending reduced fluids in the Kaapvaal lithosphere: Thermodynamic constraints

Previous research has shown that the Kaapvaal lithospheric mantle is generally reduced and characterised by a decreasing redox state with increasing depth. As a consequence, C-O-H fluids in the Kaapvaal lithospheric mantle are dominated by H₂O, CH₄, and C₂H₆. Thermodynamic calculations demonstrate that diamond precipitation from such a fluid during ascend is possible as it is exposed to a more oxidised environment and both CH₄ and C₂H₆ are oxidised. However, the calculations also demonstrate that the diamond precipitation potential from such a fluid decreases when: (1) the mantle is either more reduced or oxidised compared to the Kaapvaal mantle, or (2) the change in temperature with pressure is smaller compared to that of the Kaapvaal mantle. Therefore, the presence of reduced mantle fluid species and a generally decreasing oxygen fugacity with increasing depth do not necessarily warrant diamond precipitation from a rising reduced fluid.     

Testing variations within the Tagish Lake meteorite—II: Whole‐rock geochemistry of pristine samples

Four pristine specimens of the Tagish Lake C2 chondrite meteorite were previously determined through mineralogy, petrology, and organic chemistry to have been affected by aqueous alteration in the order (from least to most altered) TL5b < TL11h < TL11i, and TL11v as a mixture of the other specimens (Herd et al. 2011 ; Blinova et al. 2014 ). Here, we report the whole‐rock data for a total of 65 elements for the same four Tagish Lake samples as determined by ICP‐MS and ICP‐AES (utilizing the Parr bomb digestion method on small samples, approximately 50 mg), and by INAA. Our data demonstrate that the determined aqueous alteration sequence has a positive correlation with trace elements, such as K and Br that are mobile during aqueous alteration, which appear to be controlled by an increase of phyllosilicates from least to most altered samples. Yet, the homogeneity of other elements suggests that elemental mass transfer occurred on a localized scale and aqueous alteration was isochemical for these elements, similar to other primitive carbonaceous chondrites. By plotting data from three samples (TL5b, TL11h, and TL11i) on a Zn/Mn versus Sc/Mn diagram, we also confirm that the Tagish Lake meteorite is not a simple mixture of CI and CM material.     

What drives national adaptation? A global assessment

That the climate is changing and societies will have to adapt is now unequivocal, with adaptation becoming a core focus of climate policy. Our understanding of the challenges, needs, and opportunities for climate change adaptation has advanced significantly in recent years yet remains limited. Research has identified and theorized key determinants of adaptive capacity and barriers to adaptation, and more recently begun to track adaptation in practice. Despite this, there is negligible research investigating whether and indeed if adaptive capacity is translating into actual adaptation action. Here we test whether theorized determinants of adaptive capacity are associated with adaptation policy outcomes at the national level for 117 nations. We show that institutional capacity, in particular measures of good governance, are the strongest predictors of national adaptation policy. Adaptation at the national level is limited in countries with poor governance, and in the absence of good governance other presumed determinants of adaptive capacity show limited effect on adaptation. Our results highlight the critical importance of institutional good governance as a prerequisite for national adaptation. Other elements of theorized adaptive capacity are unlikely to be sufficient, effective, or present at the national level where national institutions and governance are poor.     

Transition zone structure under a stationary hot spot: Cape Verde

We report on a two-year seismic deployment in the Cape Verde Islands, one goal of which was to study the upper mantle to determine its structure under a hot spot that is stationary in the hot spot reference frame. We find from analysis of P-to-S receiver functions estimated from broadband seismic recordings that, within uncertainty, the time separation between the 410 and 660 km discontinuities is normal compared to radial earth models. Thus, to exist, even stationary hot spots do not require vertical thermal anomalies from deep melting sources anchored in the lower mantle or at the core–mantle boundary or their anomalies are narrower than ～ 250 km in the upper mantle.     

An upwelling filament off southwest Iberia: Effect on the chlorophyll a and nutrient export

The present paper describes the chemical and biological characteristics of an upwelling filament off southern Iberia in October 2004, based on a total of 42 CTD casts, along with ADCP velocity measurements distributed by an almost regular grid of 15 km mean spacing. Stations were sampled from the surface to a maximum depth of 400 dbar, for nutrients (nitrate, phosphate and silicate) and chlorophyll a determination. The effect of cross-shelf exchange of nutrients and chlorophyll a between the coastal and oceanic waters was also investigated. Data revealed that, during the cruise conducted under relaxed winds, a relatively small filament was formed down to 75 m. However, an amount of 180 t of chlorophyll a was estimated there accompanied by low nutrient concentrations. The observed water properties reveal that SW Iberia is similar to NW Iberia, showing the continuity of the Canary Upwelling System along the Iberian Peninsula, one of poorest upwelling systems of the oceanic eastern boundaries. Nevertheless, the amounts of chlorophyll and nutrients transported through the filament are significant, revealing that those play a key role in the seaward export of matter with an important impact on the regional oceanography of this region. Considering the periods of strong upwelling events and the extent of their duration along the year, the amounts of exported matter must be hugely increased and responsible for the high productivity of these waters.     

Long-term changes in the seasonality of selected diatoms related to grazers and environmental conditions

The decoupling of trophic interactions could be one of the severe consequences of climate warming in aquatic systems. The timing of phytoplankton blooms, in particular, can affect competition within the plankton community as well as food-web interactions with zooplankton and fish. Using long-term data from Helgoland Roads in the southern North Sea, we examine diatom seasonality, using three representative diatom species combined with environmental and copepod time series over the last four decades. The long-term annual abundances of Guinardia delicatula, Thalassionema nitzschioides and Odontella aurita exhibited interannual variations and dissimilar cyclic patterns during the time period under study (1962-2008). Of the three diatoms, G. delicatula showed a significant trend towards earlier bloom timings for 1962-2008 and a later decline of its abundance over time was found. Grazing and water transparency explained most of the bloom timing fluctuations of the diatoms considered. The annual timing of occurrences of each diatom species was correlated with their preceding concentrations. Earlier bloom timings occurred when autumn/winter concentrations were higher than average and later bloom timings occurred when autumn/winter concentrations were lower than average. Different environmental and predation variables related to the diatom bloom timings were found suggesting that climate warming might not affect the onset of the blooms of the three diatom species in the same manner. The results of the multiple linear regression analyses showed that the timings of decline of the three diatoms were mainly correlated with decreasing nutrient concentrations. Sunshine duration could prolong the duration of the blooms of T. nitzschioides and O. aurita provided that enough nutrients were available. In the case of G. delicatula, however, sunshine duration was negatively correlated with its end of the growth period. G. delicatula and T. nitzschioides showed later decreases in abundances under warmer spring and summer temperatures. Such species specific differences in the sensitivity to the forcing variables could lead to shifts in community structure and could ultimately have wider implications to the overall ecosystem health of the North Sea.