Modification of stochastic ground motion models for matching target intensity measures

Stochastic ground motion models produce synthetic time‐histories by modulating a white noise sequence through functions that address spectral and temporal properties of the excitation. The resultant ground motions can be then used in simulation‐based seismic risk assessment applications. This is established by relating the parameters of the aforementioned functions to earthquake and site characteristics through predictive relationships. An important concern related to the use of these models is the fact that through current approaches in selecting these predictive relationships, compatibility to the seismic hazard is not guaranteed. This work offers a computationally efficient framework for the modification of stochastic ground motion models to match target intensity measures (IMs) for a specific site and structure of interest. This is set as an optimization problem with a dual objective. The first objective minimizes the discrepancy between the target IMs and the predictions established through the stochastic ground motion model for a chosen earthquake scenario. The second objective constraints the deviation from the model characteristics suggested by existing predictive relationships, guaranteeing that the resultant ground motions not only match the target IMs but are also compatible with regional trends. A framework leveraging kriging surrogate modeling is formulated for performing the resultant multi‐objective optimization, and different computational aspects related to this optimization are discussed in detail. The illustrative implementation shows that the proposed framework can provide ground motions with high compatibility to target IMs with small only deviation from existing predictive relationships and discusses approaches for selecting a final compromise between these two competing objectives.     

Regime shifts in the marine environment: the scientific basis and political context

Regime shifts in the marine environment have recently received much attention. To date, however, few large-scale meta-analyses have been carried out due to insufficient data coverage and integration between sustained observational datasets because of diverse methodologies used in data collection, recording and archival. Here we review the available data on regime shifts globally, followed by a review of current and planned policies with relevance to regime shifts.We then focus on the North and Baltic Seas, providing examples of existing efforts for data integration in the MarBEF Network of Excellence. Existing gaps in data coverage are identified, and the added value from meta-analyses of multiple datasets demonstrated using examples from the MarBEF integrated data project LargeNet. We discuss whether these efforts are addressing current policy needs and close with recommendations for future integrated data networks to increase our ability to understand, identify and predict recent and future regime shifts.     

Petrology and geochemistry of alkali basalts and ultramafic inclusions from the palei-aike volcanic field in Southern Chile and the origin of the patagonian plateau lavas

The Palei-Aike volcanic field, the southernmost unit of the Patagonian plateau lavas, consists of Pleistocene to Recent alkali olivine basalts petrologically and geochemically similar to alkali basalts from diverse tectonic environments. The Palei-Aike basalts have lower SiO₂ and Al₂O₃ and higher TiO₂ and P₂O₃ than published analyses of other Patagonian plateau basalts. Garnet, garnet + spinel-, and phlogopite-peridotites, not reported from other Patagonian plateau lavas or from elsewhere in South America, are common inclusions within Palei-Aike lavas along with spinel-lherzolite, dunite, granulites, and aluminous clinopyroxene megacrysts. The inclusion of these high-pressure assemblages indicates a mantle origin for the Palei-Aike lavas. The Patagonian plateau lavas are located in a tectonic position similar to back-arc basins, and their origin may be a consequence of subduction. The origin and distinct chemical features of the Palei-Aike basalts may be due in part to thermal or mechanical perturbations of the mantle related to changes in plate boundaries and motions in the vicinity of the unstable trench-transform triple junction formed by the South American, Antarctic and Scotia plates.     

Do the shallow‐water habitats of a hypersaline tropical estuary act as nursery grounds for fishes?

Fish assemblages were studied in a hypersaline tropical estuary in Northeastern Brazil. A total of 104 species were collected by beach seine during the dry and rainy seasons of 2012. Two families, Atherinopsidae and Gerreidae, were numerically dominant in all zones of the estuary; juveniles of Atherinella brasiliensis, Eucinostomus argenteus, Lile piquitinga, Ulaema lefroyi, Lutjanus analis and Sphoeroides greeleyi contributed 77% of the total catch. The factors that best explained the fish abundance pattern were salinity and depth, which were related to spatial segregation. Species richness was lowest in the upper zone, an area with high salinity and shallow depth. The distinct roles of structurally different habitats (submerged macrophyte beds and mangrove prop‐roots) and the influence of physicochemical conditions in the middle zone of the estuary may influence taxonomic diversity. The middle zone of the estuary is the one most attractive to juveniles of reef species (Lutjanidae and Serranidae). The fish assemblages are clearly dominated by marine estuarine dependent species, highlighting the importance of the ecosystem as a nursery ground for marine species of the Brazilian coast.     

Thermochemistry of jarosite-alunite and natrojarosite-natroalunite solid solutions

The thermochemistry of jarosite-alunite and natrojarosite-natroalunite solid solutions was investigated. Members of these series were either coprecipitated or synthesized hydrothermally and were characterized by XRD, FTIR, electron microprobe analysis, ICP-MS, and thermal analysis. Partial alkali substitution and vacancies on the Fe/Al sites were observed in all cases, and the solids studied can be described by the general formula K_1-x-yNa_y(H₃O)_xFe_zAl_w(SO₄)₂(OH)_6-3(3-z-w)(H₂O)_3(3-z-w). A strong preferential incorporation of Fe over Al in the jarosite/alunite structure was observed. Heats of formation from the elements, ΔH°_f, were determined by high-temperature oxide melt solution calorimetry. The solid solutions deviate slightly from thermodynamic ideality by exhibiting positive enthalpies of mixing in the range 0 to +11 kJ/mol. The heats of formation of the end members of both solid solutions were derived. The values ΔH°_f = −3773.6 ± 9.4 kJ/mol, ΔH°_f = −4912.2 ± 24.2 kJ/mol, ΔH°_f = −3734.6 ± 9.7 kJ/mol and ΔH°_f = −4979.7 ± 7.5kJ/mol were found for K_0.85(H₃O)_0.15Fe_2.5(SO₄)₂(OH)_4.5(H₂O)_1.5, K_0.85(H₃O)_0.15Al_2.5(SO₄)₂(OH)_4.5(H₂O)_1.5, Na_0.7(H₃O)_0.3Fe_2.7(SO₄)₂(OH)_5.1(H₂O)_0.9, and Na_0.7(H₃O)_0.3Al_2.7(SO₄)₂(OH)_5.1(H₂O)_0.9 respectively. To our knowledge, this is the first experimentally-based report of ΔH°_f for such nonstoichiometric alunite and natroalunite samples. These thermodynamic data should prove helpful to study, under given conditions, the partitioning of Fe and Al between the solids and aqueous solution.     

The effects of meteorite impacts on the availability of bioessential elements for endolithic organisms

Abstract– Meteorite impacts, one of the most ubiquitous processes in the solar system, have the ability to destroy as well as create habitats for life. The impact process can increase the translucency and porosity of the target substrate, as well as mobilize biologically relevant elements within the substrate. For endolithic organisms, this process has important implications, especially in extreme environments where they are forced to seek refuge in the interior of rocks. Here, we show that unshocked target rocks and rocks that have experienced pressures up to about 80 GPa from the Haughton impact structure, Devon Island, Canada, possess a small, but discernible change in bulk chemistry within the major oxide analysis. However, changes in the distribution of elements did occur with increasing shock level for both the sedimentary and crystalline target. Both the crystalline and sedimentary target rocks contain significant amounts of glasses at higher shock levels (up to about 95% by volume), which would improve the availability of these elements to potential microbial endoliths as glasses are more easily dissolved by organic acids. The implication that impact events do not impoverish their capacity to serve as a “substrate” through volatilization is important with respect to analogous impact structures on Mars. After the deleterious effects of the direct meteorite impact, any microorganisms on Mars would have benefited from the input of heat, the mobilization of a possible frozen groundwater system, as well as increased translucency, porosity, and trace nutrient availability of the target substrate.     

Sustainability of groundwater in Mali,West Africa

The following paper describes the goals and some preliminary work in the Bani sustainability study, an ongoing project in Mali, West Africa. Rural communities in Mali are increasingly relying on hand-pumps, which tap groundwater resources, as a means of obtaining potable water. The long-term sustainable yield of groundwater resources is not known but can be evaluated in sustainability study. In 2005, a groundwater sustainability study was established along the Bani River of Mali. The Bani study collected groundwater levels that were used in a conceptual groundwater flow model—the Bani model—to develop an understanding of current aquifer conditions and to make limited predictions of sustainability under various future scenarios. The Bani model showed the climatic parameters of recharge (derived from precipitation) and evapotranspiration to influence simulated groundwater levels and groundwater volume available, while increased pumping rates, due to population growth, showed little effect. When considered in the context of the actual Bani sustainability study area, the change in groundwater levels resulting from climatic parameters may have negative implications, especially during several consecutive years of decreased precipitation, such as drought, or if downward trends anticipated for precipitation continue.