Application of Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) at different temporal scales to reduce the uncertainty level in modelled river flows

ABSTRACT

In this study, the distributed catchment-scale model, DiCaSM, was applied on five catchments across the UK. Given its importance, river flow was selected to study the uncertainty in streamflow prediction using the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology at different timescales (daily, monthly, seasonal and annual). The uncertainty analysis showed that the observed river flows were within the predicted bounds/envelope of 5% and 95% percentiles. These predicted river flow bounds contained most of the observed river flows, as expressed by the high containment ratio, CR. In addition to CR, other uncertainty indices – bandwidth B, relative bandwidth RB, degrees of asymmetry S and T, deviation amplitude D, relative deviation amplitude RD and the R factor – also indicated that the predicted river flows have acceptable uncertainty levels. The results show lower uncertainty in predicted river flows when increasing the timescale from daily to monthly to seasonal, with the lowest uncertainty associated with annual flows.     

Calorimetry of silicate melts at 1773 K: measurement of enthalpies of fusion and of mixing in the systems diopside-anorthite-albite and anorthite-forsterite

Transposed-temperature-drop calorimetry, using a Setaram HT 1500 calorimeter, was used to study directly the melting at 1773 K of mixtures of crystalline albite, anorthite, and diopside and of anorthite and forsterite. The enthalpy of albite at 1000–1773 K, starting with both crystalline and glassy samples, was also measured. The results confirm previously measured enthalpies of fusion of albite, diopside and anorthite (Stebbins et al. 1982, 1983; Richet and Bottinga 1984,1986). The new results use thermochemical cycles which completely avoid the glassy state by transforming crystals directly to melts. The enthalpy of fusion of forsterite is estimated to be 89±12 kJ/mol at 1773 K and 114±20 kJ/mol at its melting point of 2163 K. The data allow semiquantitative evaluation of heats of mixing in the molten silicates. Along the Ab-An join, enthalpies of mixing in the liquid at 773 K are the same or somewhat more negative than those in the glass at 986 K, whereas along Ab-Di and An-Di, enthalpies of mixing in the liquid are distinctly more positive than in the glass. These differences correlate with excess heat capacities in the liquids suggested by Stebbins et al. (1984).     

Jarosite stability on Mars

Jarosite, a potassium (sodium) iron sulphate hydrated mineral, has recently been identified on the martian surface by the Opportunity rover. Using recent thermochemical data [Drouet and Navrotsky, 2003, Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 67, 2063-2076; Forray et al., 2005, Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta, in press], we calculate the equilibrium decomposition curve of jarosite and show that it is thermodynamically stable under most present martian pressures and temperatures. Its stability makes jarosite potentially useful to retain textural, chemical, and isotopic evidence of past history, including possible biological activity, on Mars.     

Do the shallow‐water habitats of a hypersaline tropical estuary act as nursery grounds for fishes?

Fish assemblages were studied in a hypersaline tropical estuary in Northeastern Brazil. A total of 104 species were collected by beach seine during the dry and rainy seasons of 2012. Two families, Atherinopsidae and Gerreidae, were numerically dominant in all zones of the estuary; juveniles of Atherinella brasiliensis, Eucinostomus argenteus, Lile piquitinga, Ulaema lefroyi, Lutjanus analis and Sphoeroides greeleyi contributed 77% of the total catch. The factors that best explained the fish abundance pattern were salinity and depth, which were related to spatial segregation. Species richness was lowest in the upper zone, an area with high salinity and shallow depth. The distinct roles of structurally different habitats (submerged macrophyte beds and mangrove prop‐roots) and the influence of physicochemical conditions in the middle zone of the estuary may influence taxonomic diversity. The middle zone of the estuary is the one most attractive to juveniles of reef species (Lutjanidae and Serranidae). The fish assemblages are clearly dominated by marine estuarine dependent species, highlighting the importance of the ecosystem as a nursery ground for marine species of the Brazilian coast.     

A model for inferring dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in lakewater from visible-near-infrared spectroscopy (VNIRS) measures in lake sediment

We developed an inference model to infer dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in lakewater from lake sediments using visible-near-infrared spectroscopy (VNIRS). The inference model used surface sediment samples collected from 160 Arctic Canada lakes, covering broad latitudinal (60–83°N), longitudinal (71–138°W) and environmental gradients, with a DOC range of 0.6–39.6 mg L⁻¹. The model was applied to Holocene lake sediment cores from Sweden and Canada and our inferences are compared to results from previous multiproxy paleolimnological investigations at these two sites. The inferred Swedish and Canadian DOC profiles are compared, respectively, to inferences from a Swedish-based VNIRS-total organic carbon (TOC) model and a Canadian-based diatom-inferred (Di-DOC) model from the same sediment records. The 5-component Partial Least Squares (PLS) model yields a cross-validated (CV) R_CV² R_{CV}^{2}  = 0.61 and a root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP _CV ) = 4.4 mg L⁻¹ (11% of DOC gradient). The trends inferred for the two lakes were remarkably similar to the VNIRS-TOC and the Di-DOC inferred profiles and consistent with the other paleolimnological proxies, although absolute values differed. Differences in the calibration set gradients and lack of analogous VNIRS signatures in the modern datasets may explain this discrepancy. Our results corroborate previous geographically independent studies on the potential of using VNIRS to reconstruct past trends in lakewater DOC concentrations rapidly.     

Effects of climate change and urban development on the distribution and conservation of vegetation in a Mediterranean type ecosystem

Climate and land-use changes are projected to threaten biodiversity over this century. However, few studies have considered the spatial and temporal overlap of these threats to evaluate how ongoing land-use change could affect species ranges projected to shift outside conservation areas. We evaluated climate change and urban development effects on vegetation distribution in the Southwest ecoregion, California Floristic Province, USA. We also evaluated how well a conservation network protects suitable habitat for rare plant species under these change projections and identified primary sources of uncertainty. We used consensus-based maps from three species distribution models (SDMs) to project current and future suitable habitat for 19 species representing different functional types (defined by fire-response – obligate seeders, resprouting shrubs – and life forms – herbs, subshrubs), and range sizes (large/common, small/rare). We used one spatially explicit urban growth projection; two climate models, emission scenarios, and probability thresholds applied to SDMs; and high-resolution (90 m) environmental data. We projected that suitable habitat could disappear for 4 species and decrease for 15 by 2080. Averaged centroids of suitable habitat (all species) were projected to shift tens (up to hundreds) of kilometers. Herbs showed a small-projected response to climate change, while obligate seeders could suffer the greatest losses. Several rare species could lose suitable habitat inside conservation areas while increasing area outside. We concluded that (i) climate change is more important than urban development for vegetation habitat loss in this ecoregion through 2080 due to diminishing amounts of undeveloped private land in this region; (ii) the existing conservation plan, while extensive, may be inadequate to protect plant diversity under projected patterns of climate change and urban development, (iii) regional assessments of the dynamics of the drivers of biodiversity change based on high-resolution environmental data and consensus predictive mapping, such as this study, are necessary to identify the species expected to be the most vulnerable and to meaningfully inform regional-scale conservation.     

δ15N and δ13C in the Mondego estuary food web: Seasonal variation in producers and consumers

Assessments of temporal variation in stable carbon and nitrogen ratios were used to examine seasonal trends of the water column and benthic food webs in the Mondego estuary (Portugal). There was a marked seasonality in weather and water column conditions, including nutrient supply and chlorophyll concentrations. In spite of the pronounced environmental changes, we found little evidence of seasonal variation in δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N of producers and consumers in the Mondego estuary, with a few notable exceptions. Nitrogen isotope ratios in macrophytes (Zostera noltii, Ulva sp., Enteromorpha sp., and Gracilaria sp.), and in two grazers (Idotea chelipes and Lekanesphaera levii) increased during late summer, with the highest δ¹⁵N values being measured in July, during a period of elevated temperatures and drought, which may have favored high rates of denitrification and heavier δ¹⁵N values. The results suggest that stable-isotope values from macrophytes and selected grazers are useful as tracers of seasonal changes in nitrogen inputs into estuaries, and that those of consumers reflect other factors beyond seasonal variations in N and C sources.     

Co2+ as a chemical analogue for Fe2+ in high-temperature experiments in basaltic systems

High-temperature experiments on ferromagnesian compositions have been hampered by the rapid absorption of up to 95% of the original iron by platinum and 40% by silver-palladium capsules. Molybdenum or iron capsule materials can decrease or alleviate iron loss, but restrict oxygen fugacities to values near the iron-wustite buffer. Because Co²⁺ is stable at f_O2 =HM and because the solubility of Co in platinum in this range of f_O2 is ～0.05% at temperatures to 1350°C, its use as an analogue for Fe²⁺ is possible. In addition, experiments simulating various Fe²⁺ ratios can be easily performed by choosing appropriate Co²⁺/Fe³⁺ ratios. The cobalt phases produced possess brilliant and distinctive colors which are valuable aids in optical identification of minute phases. The cobalt analogue hypothesis was tested with atmospheric pressure experiments in air on the cobalt analogue of the 1921 Kilauea basalt at three simulated Fe²⁺/Fe³⁺ ratios. The results were compared with those of R.E.T. Hill (1969) for the natural 1921 basalt. The phase relations were the same, with the cobalt system stability fields systematically shifted by about +50°C. Microprobe analysis of olivines and the coexisting glasses indicate that the distribution of Co²⁺ between olivine and melt is independent of temperature and liquid composition. Although the analogue liquid composition differs from the equilibrium composition of the natural system, it may be corrected be employing distribution coefficients (K_D = 0.61 for the Co system; K_D = 0.33 for the Fe system) to closely approximate what the natural system would yield if iron loss did not occur.