Effect of snow cover on pan-Arctic permafrost thermal regimes

This study quantitatively evaluated how insulation by snow depth (SND) affected the soil thermal regime and permafrost degradation in the pan-Arctic area, and more generally defined the characteristics of soil temperature (T_SOIL) and SND from 1901 to 2009. This was achieved through experiments performed with the land surface model CHANGE to assess sensitivity to winter precipitation as well as air temperature. Simulated T_SOIL, active layer thickness (ALT), SND, and snow density were generally comparable with in situ or satellite observations at large scales and over long periods. Northernmost regions had snow that remained relatively stable and in a thicker state during the past four decades, generating greater increases in T_SOIL. Changes in snow cover have led to changes in the thermal state of the underlying soil, which is strongly dependent on both the magnitude and the timing of changes in snowfall. Simulations of the period 2001–2009 revealed significant differences in the extent of near-surface permafrost, reflecting differences in the model’s treatment of meteorology and the soil bottom boundary. Permafrost loss was greater when SND increased in autumn rather than in winter, due to insulation of the soil resulting from early cooling. Simulations revealed that T_SOIL tended to increase over most of the pan-Arctic from 1901 to 2009, and that this increase was significant in northern regions, especially in northeastern Siberia where SND is responsible for 50 % or more of the changes in T_SOIL at a depth of 3.6 m. In the same region, ALT also increased at a rate of approximately 2.3 cm per decade. The most sensitive response of ALT to changes in SND appeared in the southern boundary regions of permafrost, in contrast to permafrost temperatures within the 60°N–80°N region, which were more sensitive to changes in snow cover. Finally, our model suggests that snow cover contributes to the warming of permafrost in northern regions and could play a more important role under conditions of future Arctic warming.     

The late Quaternary development of three ancient tarns on southwestern Cumberland Peninsula, Baffin Island, Arctic Canada: paleolimnological evidence from diatoms and sediment chemistry

Sediment diatom and chemical analyses of cores from three poorly buffered extra-glacial lakes on the northeastern margin of the Canadian Shield (Cumberland Peninsula, Baffin Island) record interactions between aquatic and terrestrial spheres that were influenced by late Quaternary climatic conditions. Although differences exist between each of the lakes, notably with regards to the intensity of pre-Holocene catchment erosion and the timing of the onset of organic sedimentation, an underlying pattern of lake ontogeny, common to all three lakes, is identified. Although intensified watershed erosion characterized the Late Wisconsinan and Neoglacial cold periods, the lakes nonetheless remained viable ecosystems at these times. Sudden catchment stabilization during the late-glacial to earliest Holocene is associated with incipient organic sedimentation. Lake-water pH increased at this time, likely in response both longer base cation residence times as lake flushing rates decreased, and enhanced alkalinity production from sediment biogeochemical reactions. Subsequently, as the catchments remained stable during the productive early Holocene (c.9–7 ka BP), then gradually received a renewed increase of minerogenic sedimentation, the breakdown of sources of lake alkalinity resulted in natural acidification. Burial of cation-rich mineral sediments and the loss of permanent sedimentary sinks for the products of microbial reduction likely impeded within-lake alkalinity production, and catchment-derived base cations appeared ineffective in curtailing pH declines. The general nature of the Holocene development of these lakes is similar to that observed elsewhere on crystalline terrains, following deglaciation. Our data therefore suggest that catchment glaciation is not a necessary precursor for models of lake development characterized by initial base cation enrichment and subsequent gradual acidification.     

Dynamic propagation criteria for catastrophic failure in planar landslides

Quantitative assessment of the risk of submarine landslides is an essential part of the design process for offshore oil and gas developments in deep water, beyond the continental shelf. Landslides may be triggered by a reduction in shear strength of subsea sediments over a given zone, caused for example by seismic activity. Simple criteria are then needed to identify critical conditions whereby the zone of weakness could grow catastrophically to cause a landslide. A number of such criteria have been developed over the last decade, based either on ideas drawn from fracture mechanics, or considering the equilibrium of the initial weakened zone and adjacent process zones of gradually softening material. Accounting for the history of the weak zone initiation is critical for derivation of reliable propagation criteria, in particular considering dynamic effects arising from accumulating kinetic energy of the failing material, which will allow the failure to propagate from a smaller initial zone of weakened sediments. Criteria are developed here for planar conditions, taking full account of such dynamic effects, which are shown to be capable of reducing the critical length of the softened zone by 20% or more compared with criteria based on static conditions. A numerical approach is used to solve the governing dynamic equations for the sliding material, the results from which justify assumptions that allow analytical criteria to be developed for the case where the initial softening occurs instantaneously. The effect of more gradual softening is also explored. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Carbon and nitrogen isotope,and mineral inclusion studies on the diamonds from the Pozanti–Karsanti chromitite,Turkey

The Pozanti–Karsanti ophiolite (PKO) is one of the largest oceanic remnants in the Tauride belt, Turkey. Micro-diamonds were recovered from the podiform chromitites, and these diamonds were investigated based on morphology, color, cathodoluminescence, nitrogen content, carbon and nitrogen isotopes, internal structure and inclusions. The diamonds recovered from the PKO are mainly mixed-habit diamonds with sectors of different brightness under the cathodoluminescence images. The total δ¹³C range of the PKO diamonds varies between ??18.8 and ??28.4‰, with a principle δ¹³C mode at ??25‰. Nitrogen contents of the diamonds range from 7 to 541 ppm with a mean value of 171 ppm, and the δ¹⁵N values range from ??19.1 to 16.6‰, with a δ¹⁵N mode of ??9‰. Stacking faults and partial dislocations are commonly observed in the Transmission Electron Microscopy foils whereas inclusions are rather rare. Combinations of (Ca_0.81Mn_0.19)SiO₃, NiMnCo-alloy and nano-sized, quenched fluid phases were observed as inclusions in the PKO diamonds. We believe that the ¹³C-depleted carbon signature of the PKO diamonds derived from previously subducted crustal matter. These diamonds may have crystallized from C-saturated fluids in the asthenospheric mantle at depth below 250 km which were subsequently carried rapidly upward by asthenospheric melts.     

Interdecadal Variations of ENSO Signals and Annual Cycles Revealed by Wavelet Analysis

Interdecadal variations of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signals and annual cycles appearing in the sea surface temperature (SST) and zonal wind in the equatorial Pacific during 1950–1997 are studied by wavelet, empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and singular value decomposition (SVD) analyses. The typical timescale of ENSO is estimated to be about 40 months before the late 1970s and 48–52 months after that; the timescale increased by about 10 months. The spatial pattern of the ENSO signal appearing in SST also changed in the 1970s; before that, the area of strong signal spread over the extratropical regions, while it is confined near the equator after that. The center of the strongest signal shifted from the central and eastern equatorial Pacific to the South American coast at that time. These SST fluctuations near the equator are associated with fluctuations of zonal wiond, whose spatial pattern also shifted considerably eastward at that time. In the eastern equatorial Pacific, amplitudes of annual cycles of SST are weak in El Niño years and strong in La Niña years. This relation is not clear, however, in the 1980s and 1990s.     

Lambert problem solution in the hill model of motion

The goal of this paper is obtaining a solution of the Lambert problem in the restricted three-body problem described by the Hill equations. This solution is based on the use of pre determinate reference orbits of different types giving the first guess and defining the sought-for transfer type. A mathematical procedure giving the Lambert problem solution is described. This procedure provides step-by-step transformation of the reference orbit to the sought-for transfer orbit. Numerical examples of the procedure application to the transfers in the Sun–Earth system are considered. These examples include transfer between two specified positions in a given time, a periodic orbit design, a halo orbit design, halo-to-halo transfers, LEO-to-halo transfer, analysis of a family of the halo-to-halo transfer orbits. The proposed method of the Lambert problem solution can be used for the two-point boundary value problem solution in any model of motion if a set of typical reference orbits can be found.     

Distribution and characteristics of marine habitats in a subpolar bay based on hydroacoustics and bed shear stress estimates—Potter Cove,King George Island,Antarctica

Marine habitats worldwide are increasingly pressurized by climate change, especially along the Antarctic Peninsula. Well-studied areas in front of rapidly retreating tidewater glaciers like Potter Cove are representative for similar coastal environments and, therefore, shed light on habitat formation and development on not only a local but also regional scale. The objective of this study was to provide insights into habitat distribution in Potter Cove, King George Island, Antarctica, and to evaluate the associated environmental processes. Furthermore, an assessment concerning the future development of the habitats is provided. To describe the seafloor habitats in Potter Cove, an acoustic seabed discrimination system (RoxAnn) was used in combination with underwater video images and sediment samples. Due to the absence of wave and current measurements in the study area, bed shear stress estimates served to delineate zones prone to sediment erosion. On the basis of the investigations, two habitat classes were identified in Potter Cove, namely soft-sediment and stone habitats that, besides influences from sediment supply and coastal morphology, are controlled by sediment erosion. A future expansion of the stone habitat is predicted if recent environmental change trends continue. Possible implications for the Potter Cove environment, and other coastal ecosystems under similar pressure, include changes in biomass and species composition.     

TiO2 exsolution from garnet by open-system precipitation: evidence from crystallographic and shape preferred orientation of rutile inclusions

We investigated rutile needles with a clear shape preferred orientation in garnet from (ultra) high-pressure metapelites from the Kimi Complex of the Greek Rhodope by electron microprobe, electron backscatter diffraction and TEM techniques. A definite though complex crystallographic orientation relationship between the garnet host and rutile was identified in that Rt[001] is either parallel to Grt<111> or describes cones with opening angle 27.6° around Grt<111>. Each Rt[001] small circle representing a cone on the pole figure displays six maxima in the density plots. This evidence together with microchemical observations in TEM, when compared to various possible mechanisms of formation, corroborates a precipitate origin. A review of exchange vectors for Ti substitution in garnet indicates that rutile formation from garnet cannot occur in a closed system. It requires that components are exchanged between the garnet interior and the rock matrix by solid-state diffusion, a process we refer to as “open-system precipitation” (OSP). The kinetically most feasible reaction of this type will dominate the overall process. The perhaps most efficient reaction involves internal oxidation of Fe²⁺ to Fe³⁺ and transfer from the dodecahedral to the octahedral site just vacated by $ {\text{Ti}}^{ 4+ }: 6\,{\text{M}}^{ 2+ }_{ 3} {\text{TiAl}}\left[ {{\text{AlSi}}_{ 2} } \right]{\text{O}}_{ 1 2} + 6\,{\text{M}}^{ 2+ }_{ 2, 5} {\text{TiAlSi}}_{ 3} {\text{O}}_{ 1 2} = 10\,{\text{M}}^{ 2+ }_{ 3.0} {\text{Al}}_{ 1. 8} {\text{Fe}}_{0. 2} {\text{Si}}_{ 3} {\text{O}}_{ 1 2} + {\text{M}}^{2+} + 2 {\text{e}}^{-} + 1 2\,{\text{TiO}}_{ 2} . $ OSP is likely to occur at conditions where the transition of natural systems to open-system behaviour becomes apparent, as in the granulite and high-temperature eclogite facies.     

Certified emissions reductions and CDM limits: revenue and distributional aspects

The EU allows those installations that are subject to emissions trading to use a limited volume of certified emissions reductions (CERs), generated through the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), to cover their own GHG emissions. These CERs can be used in addition to the EU allowances (EUAs), which were primarily allocated free to installations in Phase II of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) from 2008 to 2012. For the year 2008, the CER limits, which are differentiated by EU Member State, created substantial arbitrage rents (due to the CER-EUA spread) of approximately EU€250 million. Different options for the allocation of this rent are discussed and it is found that, according to economic theory, making the right to use CERs tradable or the regulator pre-committing to buying CERs at the level of the relevant limit reduces the inefficiencies connected to the current regulation. Furthermore, auctioning these CER usage rights shifts the rents created through the CER-EUA spread to the Member State itself. The improved design and implementation of CDM limits justifies EU policy makers intervening to correct previously competition-distorting choices.