Influence of anthropogenic land‐use change on hillslope erosion in the Waipaoa River Basin,New Zealand

European settlement of the Poverty Bay Region resulted in deforestation and conversion of > 90% of the landscape to pastureland. The resulting loss of vegetation triggered a rapid increase in hillslope erosion as widespread landslide complexes and gully systems developed on weak lithologic units in the Waipaoa Basin. To quantify the rate and volume of historic hillslope degradation, we used a 1956–2010 sequence of aerial photographs for a ~16 km² catchment to map temporal changes in the spatial extent of active landslides. Then we created a ‘turf index’ based on the extent and style of pastoral ground disruption, which correlates with downslope velocity. Based on the movement of trees and other features, we assigned average velocities to the turf classes as follows: (1) minimal disrupted ground: 0.6 m/yr, (2) a mix of disrupted ground and intact blocks: 3.4 m/yr, and (3) no intact blocks or vegetation: > 6 m/yr. We then calculated the average annual sediment flux using these turf‐derived velocities, the width of the landslide‐channel intersection, and an average toe depth of 4.4 ± 1.3 m (mean ± standard deviation [SD]) from 37 field measurements. The resulting catchment averaged erosion rates are (mean ± SD): 29.9 ± 12.9 mm/yr (1956), 28.8 ± 13.7 mm/yr (1969), 13.4 ± 4.9 mm/yr (1979), 17.0 ± 6.2 mm/yr (1988), and 9.9 ± 3.6 mm/yr (2010). Compared with long‐term (post‐18 ka) erosion rates (1.6 mm/yr) and the long‐term uplift rate (~1 mm/yr) for this site, the 50‐year anthropogenically‐driven rate is an order of magnitude larger (~20 mm/yr). Previously, we measured an increase in erosion over the past 3.4 kyr (2.2 mm/yr), and here, we demonstrate this increase could be primarily due to human land‐use change – showing that a century of rapid erosion superimposed on the background geologic rate can profoundly skew the interpretation of erosion rates. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Introduction to hydromechanical well tests in fractured rock aquifers

This article introduces hydromechanical well tests as a viable field method for characterizing fractured rock aquifers. These tests involve measuring and analyzing small displacements along with pressure transients. Recent developments in equipment and analyses have simplified hydromechanical well tests, and this article describes initial field results and interpretations during slug and constant-rate pumping tests conducted at a site underlain by fractured biotite gneiss in South Carolina. The field data are characterized by displacements of 0.3 μm to more than 10 μm during head changes up to 10 m. Displacements are a hysteretic function of hydraulic head in the wellbore, with displacements late in a well test always exceeding those at similar wellbore pressures early in the test. Displacement measurements show that hydraulic aperture changes during well tests, and both scaling analyses and field data suggest that T changed by a few percent per meter of drawdown during slug and pumping tests at our field site. Preliminary analyses suggest that displacement data can be used to improve estimates of storativity and to reduce nonuniqueness during hydraulic well tests involving single wells.     

Effect of atmospheric pressure and temperature on entrapped gas content in peat

Entrapped biogenic gas in peat can greatly affect peatland biogeochemical and hydrological processes by altering volumetric water content, peat buoyancy, and ‘saturated’ hydraulic conductivity, and by generating over‐pressure zones. These over‐pressure zones further affect hydraulic gradients which influence water and nutrient flow direction and rate. The dynamics of entrapped gas are of global interest because the loss of this gas to the atmosphere via ebullition (bubbling) is likely the dominant transport mechanism of methane (CH₄) to the atmosphere from peatlands, which are the largest natural terrestrial source per annum of atmospheric CH₄. We investigated the relationship between atmospheric pressure and temperature on volumetric gas content (VGC) and CH₄ ebullition using a laboratory peat core incubation experiment. Peat cores were incubated at three temperatures (one core at 4 °C, three cores at 11 °C, and one core at 20 °C) in sealed PVC cylinders, instrumented to measure VGC, pore‐water CH₄ concentrations, and ebullition (volume and CH₄ concentrations). Ebullition events primarily occurred (71% of the time) during periods of falling atmospheric pressure. The duration of the drop in atmospheric pressure had a larger control on ebullition volume than the magnitude of the drop. VGC in the 20 °C core increased from the onset of the experiment and reached a fluctuating but time‐averaged constant level between experiment day 30 and 115. The change in VGC was low for the 11 °C cores for the initial period of the experiment but showed large increases when the growth chamber temperature increased to 20 °C due to a malfunction. The core maintained at 4 °C showed only a small increase in entrapped gas content throughout the experiment. The 20 °C core showed the largest increase in VGC. The increases in VGC occurred despite pore‐water concentrations of CH₄ being below the equilibrium solubility level. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Proglacial groundwater storage dynamics under climate change and glacier retreat

Proglacial aquifers are an important water store in glacierised mountain catchments that supplement meltwater-fed river flows and support freshwater ecosystems. Climate change and glacier retreat will perturb water storage in these aquifers, yet the climate-glacier-groundwater response cascade has rarely been studied and remains poorly understood. This study implements an integrated modelling approach that combines distributed glacio-hydrological and groundwater models with climate change projections to evaluate the evolution of groundwater storage dynamics and surface-groundwater exchanges in a temperate, glacierised catchment in Iceland. Focused infiltration along the meltwater-fed Virkisá River channel is found to be an important source of groundwater recharge and is projected to provide 14%–20% of total groundwater recharge by the 2080s. The simulations highlight a mechanism by which glacier retreat could inhibit river recharge in the future due to the loss of diurnal melt cycling in the runoff hydrograph. However, the evolution of proglacial groundwater level dynamics show considerable resilience to changes in river recharge and, instead, are driven by changes in the magnitude and seasonal timing of diffuse recharge from year-round rainfall. The majority of scenarios simulate an overall reduction in groundwater levels with a maximum 30-day average groundwater level reduction of 1 m. The simulations replicate observational studies of baseflow to the river, where up to 15% of the 30-day average river flow comes from groundwater outside of the melt season. This is forecast to reduce to 3%–8% by the 2080s due to increased contributions from rainfall and meltwater runoff. During the melt season, groundwater will continue to contribute 1%–3% of river flow despite significant reductions in meltwater runoff inputs. Therefore it is concluded that, in the proglacial region, groundwater will continue to provide only limited buffering of river flows as the glacier retreats.     

Sediment transport at the network scale and its link to channel morphology in the braided Vjosa River system

In this article we apply the CASCADE network-scale sediment connectivity model to the Vjosa River in Albania. The Vjosa is one of the last unimpaired braided rivers in Europe and, at the same time, a data scarce environment, which limits our ability to model how this pristine river might respond to future human disturbance. To initialize the model, we use remotely sensed data and modeled hydrology from a regional model. We perform a reach-by-reach optimization of surface grain size distribution (GSD) and bedload transport capacity to ensure equilibrium conditions throughout the network. In order to account for the various sources of uncertainty in the calculation of transport capacity, we performed a global sensitivity analysis. The modeled GSD distributions generated by the sensitivity analysis generally match the six GSDs measured at different locations within the network. The modeled bedload sediment fluxes increase systematically downstream, and annual fluxes at the outlet of the Vjosa are well within an order of magnitude of fluxes derived from previous estimates of the annual suspended sediment load. We then use the modeled sediment fluxes as input to a set of theoretically derived functions that successfully discriminate between multi-thread and single-thread channel patterns. This finding provides additional validation of the model results by showing a clear connection between modeled sediment concentrations and observed river morphology. Finally, we observe that a reduction in sediment flux of about 50% (e.g., due to dams) would likely cause existing braided reaches to shift toward single thread morphology. The proposed method is widely applicable and opens a new avenue for application of network-scale sediment models that aid in the exploration of river stability to changes in water and sediment fluxes.     

S xi Emission Lines in Active Region Spectra Obtained with the Solar euv Rocket Telescope and Spectrograph (Serts)

Theoretical electron density sensitive emission line ratios involving a total of eleven 2s ²2p ²–2s2p ³ transitions in Sxi between 187 and 292 Å are presented. A comparison of these with solar active region observations obtained during rocket flights by the Solar EUV Rocket Telescope and Spectrograph (SERTS) reveals generally good agreement between theory and experiment. However, the 186.87 Å line is masked by fairly strong Fexii emission at the same wavelength, while 239.83 Å is blended with an unknown feature, and 285.58 Å is blended with possibly Niv 285.56 Å. In addition, the 191.23 Å line appears to be more seriously blended with an Fexiii feature than previously believed. The presence of several new Sxi lines is confirmed in the SERTS spectra, at wavelengths of 188.66, 247.14 and 291.59 Å, in excellent agreement with laboratory measurements. In particular, the detection of the 2s ²2p ^{2 3} P ₁ –2s2p ^{3 3} P _0,1 transitions at 242.91 Å is the first time (to our knowledge) that this feature has been identified in the solar spectrum. The potential usefulness of the Sxi line ratios as electron density diagnostics for the solar transition region and corona is briefly discussed.     

Experimental superensemble forecasts of tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal

This study entails the implementation of an experimental real time forecast capability for tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal basin of North Indian Ocean. This work is being built on the experience gained from a number of recent studies using the concept of superensemble developed at the Florida State University (FSU). Real time hurricane forecasts are one of the major components of superensemble modeling at FSU. The superensemble approach of training followed by real time forecasts produces the best forecasts for tracks and intensity (up to 5 days) of Atlantic hurricanes and Pacific typhoons. Improvements in track forecasts of about 25–35% compared to current operational forecast models has been noted over the Atlantic Ocean basin. The intensity forecasts for hurricanes are only marginally better than the best models. In this paper, we address tropical cyclone forecasts over the Bay of Bengal for the years 1996–2000. The main result from this study is that the position and intensity errors for tropical cyclone forecasts over the Bay of Bengal from the multimodel superensemble are generally less than those of all of the participating models during 1- to 3-day forecasts. Some of the major tropical cyclones, such as the November 1996 Andhra Pradesh cyclone and October 1999 Orissa super cyclone were well handled by this superensemble approach. A conclusion from this study is that the proposed approach may be a viable way to construct improved forecasts of Bay of Bengal tropical cyclone positions and intensity.     

Validation of Walk Scores and Transit Scores for estimating neighborhood walkability and transit availability: a small-area analysis

We investigated the validity of Walk Scores and Transit Scores from the Walk Score website using several objective geographic information systems (GIS) measures of neighborhood walkabiltiy and transit availability based on 400- and 800-m street network buffers. Address data come from the 2008 Boston Youth Survey Geospatial Dataset, a school-based sample of public high school students in Boston, MA with complete residential address information (n = 1,292). GIS data were used to create multiple objective measures of neighborhood walkability and transit availability. We also obtained Walk Scores and Transit Scores. We calculated Spearman correlations of Walk Scores and Transit Scores with the GIS neighborhood walkability/transit availability measures as well as Spearman correlations accounting for spatial autocorrelation. Several significant correlations were observed between Walk Score and 400-m buffer GIS measures of neighborhood walkability; all significant correlations were found for the 800-m buffer. All correlations between Transit Scores and GIS measures of neighborhood transit availability were also significant (all p < 0.0001). However, the magnitude of correlations varied by the GIS measure and neighborhood definition. Relative to the 400-m buffer, correlations for the 800-m buffer were higher. This study suggests that Walk Score is a good, convenient tool to measure certain aspects of neighborhood walkability and transit availability (such as density of retail destinations, density of recreational open space, intersection density, residential density and density of subway stops). However, Walk Score works best at larger spatial scales.