Comparison of statistically downscaled precipitation in terms of future climate indices and daily variability for southern Ontario and Quebec,Canada

Given the coarse resolution of global climate models, downscaling techniques are often needed to generate finer scale projections of variables affected by local-scale processes such as precipitation. However, classical statistical downscaling experiments for future climate rely on the time-invariance assumption as one cannot know the true change in the variable of interest, nor validate the models with data not yet observed. Our experimental setup involves using the Canadian regional climate model (CRCM) outputs as pseudo-observations to estimate model performance in the context of future climate projections by replacing historical and future observations with model simulations from the CRCM, nested within the domain of the Canadian global climate model (CGCM). In particular, we evaluated statistically downscaled daily precipitation time series in terms of the Peirce skill score, mean absolute errors, and climate indices. Specifically, we used a variety of linear and nonlinear methods such as artificial neural networks (ANN), decision trees and ensembles, multiple linear regression, and k-nearest neighbors to generate present and future daily precipitation occurrences and amounts. We obtained the predictors from the CGCM 3.1 20C3M (1971–2000) and A2 (2041–2070) simulations, and precipitation outputs from the CRCM 4.2 (forced with the CGCM 3.1 boundary conditions) as predictands. Overall, ANN models and tree ensembles outscored the linear models and simple nonlinear models in terms of precipitation occurrences, without performance deteriorating in future climate. In contrast, for the precipitation amounts and related climate indices, the performance of downscaling models deteriorated in future climate.     

Climate change hotspots mapping: what have we learned?

In the past 5 years there has been a proliferation of efforts to map climate change “hotspots” — regions that are particularly vulnerable to current or future climate impacts, and where human security may be at risk. While some are academic exercises, many are produced with the goal of drawing policy maker attention to regions that are particularly susceptible to climate impacts, either to mitigate the risk of humanitarian crises or conflicts or to target adaptation assistance. Hotspots mapping efforts address a range of issues and sectors such as vulnerable populations, humanitarian crises, conflict, agriculture and food security, and water resources. This paper offers a timely assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of current hotspots mapping approaches with the goal of improving future efforts. It also highlights regions that are anticipated, based on combinations of high exposure, high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity, to suffer significant impacts from climate change.     

北京奥运会期间气溶胶光学特性垂直分布特征

利用激光雷达观测资料,分析了奥运会期间气溶胶消光系数的垂直廓线,并结合后向轨迹方法对北京地区污染来源以及污染控制措施效果进行了初步分析。观测数据表明:1)2008年消光系数较之2007年在不同高度层的降幅并不相同,600m以下的年际降幅最为显著,1200～4000m高度范围次之。2)各类型消光系数垂直廓线出现频次的统计显示,2008年影响北京的主要廓线类型为边界层上部最高型,而非近地面最高型,说明2008年近地层消光系数有明显的降低。另外,利用后向轨迹法对近地层消光系数降低的原因进行了分析,结果表明,当近地层气团中污染物主要来自于北京周边地区时,400m以下气溶胶消光系数的年际降幅可达18.1%,这说明北京周边区域大气污染控制措施对改善北京近地面层气溶胶污染起到了重要作用。     

High-Resolution Records of the Holocene Paleoenvironmental Variation Reflected by Carbonate and Its Isotopic Compositions in Bosten Lake and Response to Glacial Activities

Abstract: The Early Holocene paleoclimate in Bosten Lake on the northern margin of the Tarim Basin, southern Xinjiang, is reconstructed through an analysis of a 953 cm long core (BSTC2000) taken from Bosten Lake. Multiple proxies of this core, including the mineral components of carbonate, carbonate content, stable isotopic compositions of carbonate, Ca/Sr, TOC and C/N and C/S of organic matter, are used to reconstruct the climatic change since 8500 a B.P. The chronology model is made by nine AMS 14C ages of leaves, seeds and organic matter contained in two parallel cores. The climate was cold and wet during 8500 to 8100 a B.P. Temperature increased from 8100 to 6400 a B.P., the climate was warm and humid, and the lake expanded. The lake level was highest during this stage. Then from 6400 to 5100 a B.P., the climate became cold and the lake level decreased slightly. During the late mid-Holocene, the climate was hot and dry from 5100 to 3100 a B.P., but there was a short cold period during 4400 to 3800 a B.P. At this temporal interval, a mass of ice and snow melting water supplied the lake at the early time and made the lake level rise. The second highest lake level stage occurred during 5200 to 3800 a B.P. The climate was cool and wet during 3100 to 2200 a B.P., when the lake expanded with decreasing evaporation. The lake had the last short-term high level during 3100 to 2800 a B.P. After this short high lake level period, the lake shrank because of the long-term lower temperature and reduced water supply. From 2200 to 1200 a B.P., the climate was hot and dry, and the lake shrank greatly. Although the temperature decreased somewhat from 1200 a B.P. to the present, the climate was warm and dry. The lake level began to rise a little again, but it did not reach the river bed altitude of the Konqi River, an outflow river of the Bosten Lake.     

Generalization of Szebehely's regions for asteroid stability

Using Hill's modified stability criterion in the three-dimensional restricted three-body problem with the Sun and Jupiter as the primaries, regions of stability for the semi-major axis (a) are determined. These regions are given for a range of eccentricity (e) and inc.l.ination (i), and include the effects of the remaining orbital elements. This generalizes Szebehely's previous results which only examined the effects of e and i on the regions of stability for the semima jor axis. It is shown that if the other orbital elements are also considered, the previous results are sharpened but are not contradicted.     

An Overview of Surface-Based Precipitation Observations at Environment and Climate Change Canada

The objective of this paper is to provide an overview of the present status and procedures related to surface precipitation observations at Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC). This work was done to support the ongoing renewal of observation systems and networks at the Meteorological Service of Canada. The paper focusses on selected parameters, namely, accumulated precipitation, precipitation intensity, precipitation type, rainfall, snowfall, and radar reflectivity. Application-specific user needs and requirements are defined and captured by World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Expert Teams at the international level by Observing Systems Capability Analysis and Review (OSCAR) and WMO Integrated Global Observing System (WIGOS), and by ECCC user engagement initiatives within the Canadian context. The precipitation-related networks of ECCC are separated into those containing automatic instruments, those with human (manual) observers, and the radar network. The unique characteristics and data flow for each of these networks, the instrument and installation characteristics, processing steps, and limitations from observation to data distribution and storage are provided. A summary of precipitation instrument-dependent algorithms that are used in ECCC's Data Management System is provided. One outcome of the analysis is the identification of gaps in spatial coverage and data quality that are required to meet user needs. Increased availability of data, including from long-serving manual sites, and an increase in the availability of precipitation type and snowfall amount are identified as improvements that would benefit many users. Other recognized improvements for in situ networks include standardized network procedures, instrument performance adjustments, and improved and sustained access to data and metadata from internal and external networks. Specific to radar, a number of items are recognized that can improve quantitative precipitation estimates. Increased coverage for the radar network and improved methods for assessing and portraying radar data quality would benefit precipitation users.     

Restructuring the kiosk trade in St. Petersburg: A new retail trade model for the post-Soviet period

This study explores the commercial kiosk phenomenon as a reflection of the socio-spatial reordering of St. Petersburg following the introduction of market forces. In this article we interpret empirical evidence on the restructuring of commercial opportunity in post-Soviet St. Petersburg as a result of the emergence of the kiosk phenomenon. Kiosk trade and processes that contribute to it have emerged as tools for mass socioeconomic and psychological adaptation, following the dismantling of the communist regime. In our opinion, the emergence and continuing mutation of St. Petersburg kiosks constitutes the backbone of a process of middle-class formation. An extensive field research of 1989, 1994 and 1995 made it possible to study the dynamics of spatial structures of kiosk phenomenon. It is our final conclusion that kiosks will remain an important feature of St. Petersburgs commercial geography in the foreseeable future.     

Fertilization Changes Seagrass Community Structure but not Blue Carbon Storage: Results from a 30-Year Field Experiment

Seagrass ecosystems are attracting attention as potentially important tools for carbon (C) sequestration, comparable to those terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems already incorporated into climate change mitigation frameworks. Despite the relatively low C stocks in living biomass, the soil organic carbon pools beneath seagrass meadows can be substantial. We tested the relationship between soil C storage and seagrass community biomass, productivity, and species composition by revisiting meadows experimentally altered by 30 years of consistent nutrient fertilization provided by roosting birds. While the benthos beneath experimental perches has maintained dense, Halodule wrightii-dominated communities compared to the sparse Thalassia testudinum-dominated communities at control sites, there were no significant differences in soil organic carbon stocks in the top 15 cm. Although there were differences in δ¹³C of the dominant seagrass species at control and treatment sites, there was no difference in soil δ¹³C between treatments. Averages for soil organic carbon content (2.57?±?0.08 %) and δ¹³C (?12.0?±?0.3?‰) were comparable to global averages for seagrass ecosystems; however, our findings question the relevance of local-scale seagrass species composition or density to soil organic carbon pools in some environmental contexts.