A re-examination of petrogenesis and 40Ar/39Ar systematics in the Chain of Ponds K-feldspar: “diffusion domain” archetype versus polyphase hygrochronology

K-feldspar (Kfs) from the Chain of Ponds Pluton (CPP) is the archetypal reference material, upon which thermochronological modeling of Ar diffusion in discrete “domains” was founded. We re-examine the CPP Kfs using cathodoluminescence and back-scattered electron imaging, transmission electron microscopy, and electron probe microanalysis. ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar stepwise heating experiments on different sieve fractions, and on handpicked and unpicked aliquots, are compared. Our results reproduce the staircase-shaped age spectrum and the Arrhenius trajectory of the literature sample, confirming that samples collected from the same locality have an identical Ar isotope record. Even the most pristine-looking Kfs from the CPP contains successive generations of secondary, metasomatic/retrograde mineral replacements that post-date magmatic crystallization. These chemically and chronologically distinct phases are responsible for its staircase-shaped age spectra, which are modified by handpicking. While genuine within-grain diffusion gradients are not ruled out by these data, this study demonstrates that the most important control on staircase-shaped age spectra is the simultaneous presence of heterochemical, diachronous post-magmatic mineral growth. At least five distinct mineral species were identified in the Kfs separate, three of which can be traced to external fluids interacting with the CPP in a chemically open system. Sieve fractions have size-shifted Arrhenius trajectories, negating the existence of the smallest “diffusion domains.” Heterochemical phases also play an important role in producing nonlinear trajectories. In vacuo degassing rates recovered from Arrhenius plots are neither related to true Fick’s Law diffusion nor to the staircase shape of the age spectra. The CPP Kfs used to define the “diffusion domain” model demonstrates the predominance of metasomatic alteration by hydrothermal fluids and recrystallization in establishing the natural Ar distribution among different coexisting phases that gives rise to the staircase-shaped age spectrum. Microbeam imaging of textures is as essential for ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar hygrochronology as it is for U–Pb geochronology.     

Nucleosynthetic zirconium isotope anomalies in acid leachates of carbonaceous chondrites

Stepwise dissolutions of the carbonaceous chondrites Orgueil (CI), Murchison (CM) and Allende (CV) reveal large nucleosynthetic anomalies for Zr isotopes that contrast with the uniform compositions found in bulk meteorites. Two complementary nucleosynthetic components are observed: one enriched and one depleted in s-process nuclides. The latter component, characterized by excess ⁹⁶Zr, is most distinctive in the acetic acid leachate (up to ε⁹⁶Zr ≈ 50). The excess decreases with increasing acid strength and the final leaching steps of the experiment are depleted in ⁹⁶Zr and thus enriched in s-process nuclides. Presolar silicon carbide grains are likely host phases for part of the anomalous Zr released during these later stages. However, by mass balance they cannot account for the ⁹⁶Zr excesses observed in the early leaching steps and this therefore hints at the presence of at least one additional carrier phase with significant amounts of anomalous Zr. The data provide evidence that average solar system material consists of a homogenized mixture of different nucleosynthetic components, which can be partly resolved by leaching experiments of carbonaceous chondrites.     

Equilibrium H/H fractionations in organic molecules: I. Experimental calibration of ab initio calculations

Carbon-bound hydrogen in sedimentary organic matter can undergo exchange over geologic timescales, altering its isotopic composition. Studies investigating the natural abundance distribution of ¹H and ²H in such molecules must account for this exchange, which in turn requires quantitative knowledge regarding the endpoint of exchange, i.e., the equilibrium isotopic fractionation factor (α_eq). To date, relevant data have been lacking for molecules larger than methane. Here we describe an experimental method to measure α_eq for C-bound H positions adjacent to carbonyl group (H_α) in ketones. H at these positions equilibrates on a timescale of days as a result of keto-enol tautomerism, allowing equilibrium ²H/¹H distributions to be indirectly measured. Molecular vibrations for the same ketone molecules are then computed using Density Functional Theory at the B3LYP/6-311G** level and used to calculate α_eq values for H_α. Comparison of experimental and computational results for six different straight and branched ketones yields a temperature-dependent linear calibration curve with slope = 1.081−0.00376T and intercept = 8.404−0.387T, where T is temperature in degrees Celsius. Since the dominant systematic error in the calculation (omission of anharmonicity) is of the same size for ketones and C-bound H in most other linear compounds, we propose that this calibration can be applied to analogous calculations for a wide variety of organic molecules with linear carbon skeletons for temperatures below 100 °C. In a companion paper (Wang et al., 2009) we use this new calibration dataset to calculate the temperature-dependent equilibrium isotopic fractionation factors for a range of linear hydrocarbons, alcohols, ethers, ketones, esters and acids.     

Late Quaternary glaciation and equilibrium-line altitudes of the Mayan Ice Cap, Guatemala, Central America

The Sierra los Cuchumatanes (3837 m), Guatemala, supported a plateau ice cap and valley glaciers around Montaña San Juan (3784 m) that totaled ∼ 43 km² in area during the last local glacial maximum. Former ice limits are defined by sharp-crested lateral and terminal moraines that extend to elevations of ∼ 3450 m along the ice cap margin, and to ca. 3000-3300 m for the valley glaciers. Equilibrium-line altitudes (ELAs) estimated using the area-altitude balance ratio method for the maximum late Quaternary glaciation reached as low as 3470 m for the valley glaciers and 3670 m for the Mayan Ice Cap. Relative to the modern altitude of the 0°C isotherm of ∼ 4840 m, we determined ELA depressions of 1110-1436 m. If interpreted in terms of a depression of the freezing level during maximal glaciation along the modern lapse rate of − 5.3°C km^− 1, this ΔELA indicates tropical highland cooling of ∼ 5.9 to 7.6 ± 1.2°C. Our data support greater glacial highland cooling than at sea level, implying a high tropical sensitivity to global climate changes. The large magnitude of ELA depression in Guatemala may have been partially forced by enhanced wetness associated with southward excursions of the boreal winter polar air mass.     

Rice crop phenology mapping at high spatial and temporal resolution using downscaled MODIS time-series

Satellite data holds considerable potential as a source of information on rice crop growth which can be used to inform agronomy. However, given the typical field sizes in many rice-growing countries such as China, data from coarse spatial resolution satellite systems such as the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) are inadequate for resolving crop growth variability at the field scale. Nevertheless, systems such as MODIS do provide images with sufficient frequency to be able to capture the detail of rice crop growth trajectories throughout a growing season. In order to generate high spatial and temporal resolution data suitable for mapping rice crop phenology, this study fused MODIS data with lower frequency, higher spatial resolution Landsat data. An overall workflow was developed which began with image preprocessing, calculation of multi-temporal normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) images, and spatiotemporal fusion of data from the two sensors. The Spatial and Temporal Adaptive Reflectance Fusion Model was used to effectively downscale the MODIS data to deliver a time-series of 30 m spatial resolution NDVI data at 8-day intervals throughout the rice-growing season. Zonal statistical analysis was used to extract NDVI time-series for individual fields and signal filtering was applied to the time-series to generate rice phenology curves. The downscaled MODIS NDVI products were able to characterize the development of paddy rice at fine spatial and temporal resolutions, across wide spatial extents over multiple growing seasons. These data permitted the extraction of key crop seasonality parameters that quantified inter-annual growth variability for a whole agricultural region and enabled mapping of the variability in crop performance between and within fields. Hence, this approach can provide rice crop growth data that is suitable for informing agronomic policy and practice across a wide range of scales.     

Comparison of statistically downscaled precipitation in terms of future climate indices and daily variability for southern Ontario and Quebec,Canada

Given the coarse resolution of global climate models, downscaling techniques are often needed to generate finer scale projections of variables affected by local-scale processes such as precipitation. However, classical statistical downscaling experiments for future climate rely on the time-invariance assumption as one cannot know the true change in the variable of interest, nor validate the models with data not yet observed. Our experimental setup involves using the Canadian regional climate model (CRCM) outputs as pseudo-observations to estimate model performance in the context of future climate projections by replacing historical and future observations with model simulations from the CRCM, nested within the domain of the Canadian global climate model (CGCM). In particular, we evaluated statistically downscaled daily precipitation time series in terms of the Peirce skill score, mean absolute errors, and climate indices. Specifically, we used a variety of linear and nonlinear methods such as artificial neural networks (ANN), decision trees and ensembles, multiple linear regression, and k-nearest neighbors to generate present and future daily precipitation occurrences and amounts. We obtained the predictors from the CGCM 3.1 20C3M (1971–2000) and A2 (2041–2070) simulations, and precipitation outputs from the CRCM 4.2 (forced with the CGCM 3.1 boundary conditions) as predictands. Overall, ANN models and tree ensembles outscored the linear models and simple nonlinear models in terms of precipitation occurrences, without performance deteriorating in future climate. In contrast, for the precipitation amounts and related climate indices, the performance of downscaling models deteriorated in future climate.     

蒙特卡罗不确定性分析在O3模拟中的初步应用

利用蒙特卡罗不确定性分析方法,分析了嵌套网格空气质量模式系统(NAQPMS/IAP)中154个模式输入变量不确定性对臭氧模拟的影响,量化了模式在北京奥运会期间臭氧模拟的不确定性,并确定出了主要不确定性因子。结果表明:(1)在奥运会期间(2008年8月8日～2008年8月24日),北京城区臭氧模拟的平均不确定性为19ppb,不确定性存在明显的日变化特征,白天不确定性大,夜间不确定性小。(2)在白天,北京城区近地层臭氧模拟最重要的不确定性来源是局地前体物排放,其次是NO2光解系数、风向、北京周边前体物排放和垂直扩散系数。另外,地面约150m以上,对臭氧模拟影响最大的不确定性因子是风向和北京周边前体物排放;夜间,北京城区近地层臭氧模拟的最大不确定性来源是局地NOx排放和垂直扩散系数。     

Three-Dimensional Modeling of the Casing Effect in Onshore Controlled-Source Electromagnetic Surveys

The presence of steel-cased wells and other infrastructure causes a significant change in the electromagnetic fields that has to be taken into consideration in modeling and interpretation of field data. A realistic and accurate simulation requires the borehole casing to be incorporated into the modeling scheme, which is numerically challenging. Due to the huge conductivity contrast between the casing and surrounding media, a spatial discretization that provides accurate results at different spatial scales ranging from millimeters to hundreds of meters is required. In this paper, we present a full 3D frequency-domain electromagnetic modeling based on a parallel finite-difference algorithm considering the casing effect and investigate its applicability on the borehole-to-surface configuration of the Hontomín CO₂ storage site. To guarantee a robust solution of linear systems with highly ill-conditioned matrices caused by huge conductivity contrasts and multiple spatial scales in the model, we employ direct sparse solvers. Different scenarios are simulated in order to study the influence of the source position, conductivity model, and the effect of the steel casing on the measured data. Several approximations of the real hollow casing that allow for a large reduction in the number of elements in the resulting meshes are studied. A good agreement between the modeled responses and the real field data demonstrates the feasibility of simulating casing effects in complex geological areas. The steel casing of the well greatly increases the amplitude of the surface electromagnetic fields and thus improves the signal-to-noise ratio and the sensitivity to deep targets.     

Climate change, adaptation and economic growth

This paper explores the links between economic growth and the impacts of climate change. Inclusive, pro-poor growth is central to the development of low-income countries. There is also a broad consensus that growth and development are important to reduce vulnerability to climate change. Growth does not automatically reduce vulnerability, only the right kind of growth does. The paper aims to develop a better understanding of what the ??right kind of growth?? may be. We find that many growth policies, such as investment in skills and access to finance, indeed reduce vulnerability to climate change. However, climate change calls for some adjustments in growth policy. In particular, investment in infrastructure and efforts to stimulate entrepreneurship and competitive markets must take more of a risk management perspective and recognise climate risks.     

Environmental assessments: four under-appreciated elements of design

Environmental assessments generate and/or collect individual research efforts to answer policy-relevant questions and otherwise provide technical advice to decision-makers, typically legislators, international negotiators and regulators. Though one might think first of assessments in terms of the reports that they often produce, the implications of scientific assessment are better understood by viewing assessments as a social processes, rather than principally as a document. Assessment processes are embedded in different sorts of institutional settings, within which scientists, decision-makers, and advocates communicate to define relevant questions for analysis, mobilize certain kinds of experts and expertise, and interpret findings in particular ways. This social process perspective on assessment directs attention beyond the content of assessment reports to encompass questions the design of the social process. In this paper, we focus on four elements of assessment design that are too frequently under-appreciated: assessment context and initiation, science–policy interaction, participation in assessment processes, and assessment capacity. We show how widely these elements vary across five different assessments and discuss the implications of this variation.