Tsunami threat in the Indian Ocean from a future megathrust earthquake west of Sumatra

Several independent indicators imply a high probability of a great (M > 8) earthquake rupture of the subduction megathrust under the Mentawai Islands of West Sumatra. The human consequences of such an event depend crucially on its tsunamigenic potential, which in turn depends on unpredictable details of slip distribution on the megathrust and how resulting seafloor movements and the propagating tsunami waves interact with bathymetry. Here we address the forward problem by modelling about 1000 possible complex earthquake ruptures and calculating the seafloor displacements and tsunami wave height distributions that would result from the most likely 100 or so, as judged by reference to paleogeodetic data. Additionally we carry out a systematic study of the importance of the location of maximum slip with respect to the morphology of the fore-arc complex. Our results indicate a generally smaller regional tsunami hazard than was realised in Aceh during the December 2004 event, though more than 20% of simulations result in tsunami wave heights of more than 5 m for the southern Sumatran cities of Padang and Bengkulu. The extreme events in these simulations produce results which are consistent with recent deterministic studies. The study confirms the sensitivity of predicted wave heights to the distribution of slip even for events with similar moment and reproduces Plafker's rule of thumb. Additionally we show that the maximum wave height observed at a single location scales with the magnitude though data for all magnitudes exhibit extreme variability. Finally, we show that for any coastal location in the near field of the earthquake, despite the complexity of the earthquake rupture simulations and the large range of magnitudes modelled, the timing of inundation is constant to first order and the maximum height of the modelled waves is directly proportional to the vertical coseismic displacement experienced at that point. These results may assist in developing tsunami preparedness strategies around the Indian Ocean and in particular along the coasts of western Sumatra.     

Model reduction and discretization using hybrid finite volumes for flow in porous media containing faults

In this paper, we study two different model reduction strategies for solving problems involving single phase flow in a porous medium containing faults or fractures whose location and properties are known. These faults are represented as interfaces of dimension N ? 1 immersed in an N dimensional domain. Both approaches can handle various configurations of position and permeability of the faults, and one can handle different fracture permeabilities on the two inner sides of the fracture. For the numerical discretization, we use the hybrid finite volume scheme as it is known to be well suited to simulating subsurface flow. Some results, which may be of use in the implementation of the proposed methods in industrial codes, are demonstrated.     

Integrated use of biomarkers in the mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis for assessing off-shore gas platforms in the Adriatic Sea: results of a two-year biomonitoring program

Despite a large number of gas platforms existing in the Adriatic Sea, which is a semi-enclosed basin characterized by a slow turnover rate and increasing industrial as well as other anthropogenic activities, the effects of these structures on the aquatic ecosystem require further investigation. Since 1998, multidisciplinary studies have been performed by CNR-ISMAR to comply with legislation and to support the development of protocols for the monitoring of offshore activities in the Adriatic Sea. The present study was developed to implement a biomonitoring plan to assess the ecotoxicological effects of the extraction activities of an off-shore gas platform. Biomarkers were evaluated in mussels collected from the platform in relation to physiological stress, DNA damage, cellular damage, oxidative stress and exposure effects. Organic contaminants and trace element bioaccumulation were also assessed in the soft body of the mussels to correlate bioaccumulation of pollutants with biomarker responses. The results indicate an absence of platform-related environmental stress.     

Comparing 2D capabilities of HEC-RAS and LISFLOOD-FP on complex topography

ABSTRACT

This study evaluates and compares two-dimensional (2D) numerical models of different complexities by testing them on a floodplain inundation event that occurred on the Secchia River (Italy). We test 2D capabilities of LISFLOOD-FP and HEC-RAS (5.0.3), implemented using various grid sizes (25–100 m) based on 1-m DEM resolution. As expected, the best results were shown by the higher-resolution grids (25 m) for both models, which is justified by the complex terrain of the area. However, the coarser resolution simulations (50 and 100 m) performed virtually identically compared to the high-resolution simulations. Nevertheless, the spatial distribution of flood characteristics varies: the 50 and 100 m results of LISFLOOD-FP and HEC-RAS misestimated flood extent and water depth in selected control areas (built-up zones). We suggest that the specific terrain of the area can cause ambiguities in large-scale modelling, while providing plausible results in terms of the overall model performance.     

Comparing flow resistance law for fixed and mobile bed rills

Rills caused by run‐off concentration on erodible hillslopes have very irregular profiles and cross‐section shapes. Rill erosion directly depends on the hydraulics of flow in the rills, which may differ greatly from hydraulics of flow in larger and regular channels. In this paper, a recently theoretically deduced rill flow resistance equation, based on a power–velocity profile, was tested experimentally on plots of varying slopes (ranging from 9% to 26%) in which mobile and fixed bed rills were incised. Initially, measurements of flow velocity, water depth, cross‐section area, wetted perimeter, and bed slope, carried out in 320 reaches of mobile bed rills and in 165 reaches of fixed rills, were used for calibrating the theoretical flow resistance equation. Then the relationship between the velocity profile parameter Γ, the channel slope, and the flow Froude number was separately calibrated for the mobile bed rills and for the fixed ones. The measurements carried out in both conditions (fixed and mobile bed rills) confirmed that the Darcy–Weisbach friction factor can be accurately estimated using the proposed theoretical approach. For mobile bed rills, the data were supportive of the slope independence hypothesis of velocity, due to the feedback mechanism, stated by Govers. The feedback mechanism was able to produce quasicritical flow conditions. For fixed bed rills, obtained by fixing the rill channel, by a glue, at the end of the experimental run with a mobile bed rill, the slope independence of the flow velocity measurements was also detected. Therefore, an experimental run carried out by a rill bed fixed after modelling flow action is useful to detect the feedback mechanism. Finally, the analysis showed that, for the investigated conditions, the effect of sediment transport on the flow resistance law can be considered negligible respect to the grain roughness effect.     

Abiotic and Biotic Links Work Two Ways: Effects on the Deposit at the Cliff Foot Induced by Mechanical Action of Date Mussel Harvesting (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Lithophaga lithophaga</Emphasis>)

The existence of linkages between ecological and geomorphological processes and the influence of human activities both on the biota and on geomorphology is well known for terrestrial environments, while it has been seldom reported for submerged ones. A survey in the Noli-Bergeggi area (NW Mediterranean Sea) has been carried out to test the hypothesis that the harvesting of Lithophaga lithophaga has an impact not only on the hammered rock, but also on the sediments at the cliff foot. Size and roundness of pebbles have been measured at different stations and statistical analyses have been used to test the differences between impact and control situations. Results show a dependence of the roundness of pebbles on the date mussel harvesting, indicating a decrease both of the roundness index and of its variability at the cliff foot in impacted sites. Conclusions stress the biogeomorphological nature of this activity, not limited to the present location.     

Huygens probe entry trajectory and attitude estimated simultaneously with Titan atmospheric structure by Kalman filtering

Space probes entering planetary atmospheres are used for in situ study of their physical structures. During the entry phase aerodynamic forces exerted on the probe depend on atmospheric density. As a consequence accelerations measured by on-board sensors can be used to derive probe trajectory as well as atmospheric density, pressure and temperature profiles. In this work acceleration data acquired by the Huygens Atmospheric Structure Instrument (HASI) have been used to reconstruct the probe trajectory and the Titan's atmospheric structure from down to of altitude. An accurate six degree of freedom model of Huygens during the entry phase has been developed and a new reconstruction technique based on Kalman filtering is presented. This technique estimates simultaneously the probe trajectory, the attitude profile consistent with measured data and the atmospheric density, pressure and temperature.