Training Images from Process-Imitating Methods

The lack of a suitable training image is one of the main limitations of the application of multiple-point statistics (MPS) for the characterization of heterogeneity in real case studies. Process-imitating facies modeling techniques can potentially provide training images. However, the parameterization of these process-imitating techniques is not straightforward. Moreover, reproducing the resulting heterogeneous patterns with standard MPS can be challenging. Here the statistical properties of the paleoclimatic data set are used to select the best parameter sets for the process-imitating methods. The data set is composed of 278 lithological logs drilled in the lower Namoi catchment, New South Wales, Australia. A good understanding of the hydrogeological connectivity of this aquifer is needed to tackle groundwater management issues. The spatial variability of the facies within the lithological logs and calculated models is measured using fractal dimension, transition probability, and vertical facies proportion. To accommodate the vertical proportions trend of the data set, four different training images are simulated. The grain size is simulated alongside the lithological codes and used as an auxiliary variable in the direct sampling implementation of MPS. In this way, one can obtain conditional MPS simulations that preserve the quality and the realism of the training images simulated with the process-imitating method. The main outcome of this study is the possibility of obtaining MPS simulations that respect the statistical properties observed in the real data set and honor the observed conditioning data, while preserving the complex heterogeneity generated by the process-imitating method. In addition, it is demonstrated that an equilibrium of good fit among all the statistical properties of the data set should be considered when selecting a suitable set of parameters for the process-imitating simulations.     

Formation of an ‘a’ā lava delta: insights from time-lapse multibeam bathymetry and direct observations during the Stromboli 2007 eruption

Five consecutive multibeam bathymetries collected before, during, and after the 2007 Stromboli eruption, combined with visual inspections, allowed us to document the morphological evolution of an ‘a’ā lava-fed delta and to reconstruct the main processes acting during its submarine emplacement. The 2007 Stromboli delta extended down to 600-m water depth and covered an area of 420?×?10³ m², with a maximum thickness of 65 m and a total estimated volume of ≈7?×?10⁶ m³, i.e., three times larger than its subaerial counterpart. The lava delta grew mainly through the emplacement of discrete lobes about 50–150 m in size. Lobes were fed from point sources along the paleoshoreline, and their subaqueous pathways seem to be mainly controlled by the submarine morphology, with flows mostly filling in depressions left by previous lobes. The main controlling factors on the lobe morphology and thickness are the effusion rates and the pre-eruption morphology, i.e., the geometry and gradients of the basal surface. Data also shows that sudden slope failure of portions of the submarine delta may occur simultaneously with accretion, implying that a significant part of the delta material can be transported to greater depths by submarine gravity flows. The present study is relevant for future monitoring and hazard assessment during the growth of active lava-fed deltas as well as for a better interpretation of ancient volcaniclastic successions inland.     

Cosmological Parameters from Cosmic Microwave Background Anisotropies: Status and Prospects

A survey is made of the present constraints on cosmological parameters from Cosmic Microwave Background Anisotropies. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Ephemeral rollover points and clinothem evolution in the modern Po Delta based on repeated bathymetric surveys

Reconstructions of ancient delta systems rely typically on a two-dimensional (2D) view of prograding clinothems but may miss their three-dimensional (3D) stratigraphic complexity which can, instead, be best documented on modern delta systems by integrating high-resolution geophysical data, historical cartography, core data and geomorphological reconstructions offshore. We quantitatively compare three precisely positioned, high-resolution multi-beam bathymetry maps in the delta front and pro delta sectors (0.3 to 10 m water depth) of Po di Pila, the most active of the modern Po Delta five branches. By investigating the detailed morphology of the prograding modern Po Delta, we shed new light on the mechanisms that control the topset to foreset transition in clinothems and show the temporal and spatial complexity of a delta and its pro delta slope, under the impact of oceanographic processes. This study documents the ephemeral nature of the rollover point at the transition between sandy topset (fluvial, delta plain to mouth-bar) and muddy seaward-dipping foreset deposits advancing, in this case, in >20 m of water depth. Three multibeam surveys, acquired between 2013 and 2016, document the complexity in space and time of the topset and foreset regions and their related morphology, a diagnostic feature that could not be appreciated using solely 2D, even very high-resolution, seismic profiles. In addition, the comparison of bathymetric surveys gathered with one-year lapses shows the migration of subaqueous sand dunes on the clinothem topset, the formation of ephemeral cut-and-fill features at the rollover point (few m below mean sea level), the presence of collapse depressions derived by sagging of sediments and fluid expulsion (possibly induced by storm waves) on the foreset, and splays of sand likely reflecting gravity flows on the lower foreset. Though the modern Po Delta is anthropogenic in many respects, its subaqueous clinothem can be studied as a scale model for ancient clinothems that are less resolved geometrically and far less constrained chronologically.     

Late‐glacial to Holocene depositional architecture of the Ombrone palaeovalley system (Southern Tuscany,Italy): Sea‐level,climate and local control in valley‐fill variability

The Ombrone palaeovalley was incised during the last glacial sea‐level fall and was infilled during the subsequent Late‐glacial to Holocene transgression. A detailed sedimentological and stratigraphic study of two cores along the palaeovalley axis led to reconstruction of the post‐Last Glacial Maximum valley‐fill history. Stratigraphic correlations show remarkable similarity in the Late‐glacial to early‐Holocene succession, but discrepancy in the Holocene portion of the valley fill. Above the palaeovalley floor, about 60 m below sea‐level, Late‐glacial sedimentation is recorded by an unusually thick alluvial succession dated back to ca 18 cal kyr bp . The Holocene onset was followed by the retrogradational shift from alluvial to coastal facies. In seaward core OM1, the transition from inner to outer estuarine environments marks the maximum deepening of the system. By comparison, in landward core OM2, the emplacement of estuarine conditions was interrupted by renewed continental sedimentation. Swamp to lacustrine facies, stratigraphically equivalent to the fully estuarine facies of core OM1, represent the proximal expression of the maximum flooding zone. This succession reflects location in a confined segment of the valley, just landward of the confluence with a tributary valley. It is likely that sudden sediment input from the tributary produced a topographic threshold, damming the main valley course and isolating its landward segment from the sea. The seaward portion of the Ombrone palaeovalley presents the typical estuarine backfilling succession of allogenically controlled incised valleys. In contrast, in the landward portion of the system, local dynamics completely overwhelmed the sea‐level signal, following marine ingression. This study highlights the complexity of palaeovalley systems, where local morphologies, changes in catchment areas, drainage systems and tributary valleys may produce facies patterns significantly different from the general stratigraphic organization depicted by traditional sequence‐stratigraphic models.     

Determination of the seismic performance factors for post‐tensioned rocking timber wall systems

Post‐tensioned technologies for concrete seismic resistant buildings were first developed in the 1990s during the PREcast Seismic Structural Systems program. Among different solutions, the hybrid system proved to be the most resilient solution providing a combination of re‐centering and energy dissipative contributions respectively by using post‐tensioned tendons and mild steel reinforcement. The system, while providing significant strength and energy dissipation, reduces structural element damage and limits post‐earthquake residual displacements. More recently, the technology was extended to laminated veneer lumber (LVL) structural members, and extensive experimental and numerical work was carried out and allowed the development of reliable analytical and numerical models as well as design guidelines. On the basis of the experimental and numerical outcomes, this paper presents the evaluation of the seismic performance factors for post‐tensioned rocking LVL walls using the FEMA P‐695 procedure. Several archetype buildings were designed considering different parameters such as the building and story height, the type of seismic resistant system, the magnitude of gravity loads and the seismic design category. Lumped plasticity models were developed for each index archetype to simulate the behavioral aspects and collapse mechanisms. Non‐linear quasi‐static analyses were carried out to evaluate the system over‐strength factor; moreover, non‐linear time history analyses were performed using the incremental dynamic analysis concept to assess the collapse of each building. From the results of quasi‐static and dynamic analyses the response modification factor, R, system over‐strength factor, Ω₀, and deflection amplification factor, C_d, values of, respectively, 7, 3.5 and 7.5 are recommended. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Resilience and brittleness in the ALERTA RIO system: a field study about the decision-making of forecasters

Natural disasters, particularly those triggered by heavy rainfall, may cause major damage and death. However, if an accurate early warning is issued, the damage can be mitigated. In Latin America and Brazil, characteristics of socioeconomic development often lead to a disorderly growth of cities and, consequently, occupation and irregular construction in risk areas. Therefore, forecasts of heavy rainfall, as well as preventative and mitigatory actions based on meteorological data/alerts, are essential to saving lives and minimizing material loss. An event that would have benefited from such actions is that which occurred in the mountainous region of Rio de Janeiro in January 2011, when over 800 people lost their lives. This work describes the first research initiative on resilience engineering domain in systems to forecast heavy rains in Rio de Janeiro. The results indicate important sources of brittleness in the system that supports the work of meteorologists, mainly related to the technical and organizational framework, and suggests that the main source of resilience in dealing with critical situations is the tacit knowledge of experts.     

Atmospheric sources and sinks of volcanogenic elements in a basaltic volcano (Etna, Italy)

This study reports on the first quantitative assessment of the geochemical cycling of volcanogenic elements, from their atmospheric release to their deposition back to the ground. Etna’s emissions and atmospheric depositions were characterised for more than 2 years, providing data on major and trace element abundance in both volcanic aerosols and bulk depositions. Volcanic aerosols were collected from 2004 to 2007, at the summit vents by conventional filtration techniques. Precipitation was collected, from 2006 to 2007, in five rain gauges, at various altitudes around the summit craters. Analytical results for volcanic aerosols showed that the dominant anions were S, Cl, and F, and that the most abundant metals were K, Ca, Mg, Al, Fe, and Ti (1.5-50 μg m⁻³). Minor and trace element concentrations ranged from about 0.001 to 1 μg m⁻³. From such analysis, we derived an aerosol mass flux ranging from 3000 to 8000 t a⁻¹. Most analysed elements had higher concentrations close to the emission vent, confirming the prevailing volcanic contribution to bulk deposition. Calculated deposition rates were integrated over the whole Etna area, to provide a first estimate of the total deposition fluxes for several major and trace elements. These calculated deposition fluxes ranged from 20 to 80 t a⁻¹ (Al, Fe, Si) to 0.01-0.1 t a⁻¹ (Bi, Cs, Sc, Th, Tl, and U). Comparison between volcanic emissions and atmospheric deposition showed that the amount of trace elements scavenged from the plume in the surrounding of the volcano ranged from 0.1% to 1% for volatile elements such as As, Bi, Cd, Cs, Cu, Tl, and from 1% to 5% for refractory elements such as Al, Ba, Co, Fe, Ti, Th, U, and V. Consequently, more than 90% of volcanogenic trace elements were dispersed further away, and may cause a regional scale impact. Such a large difference between deposition and emission fluxes at Mt. Etna pointed to relatively high stability and long residence time of aerosols in the plume.     

Structural evolution of a 2M 1 phengite mica up to 11 GPa: an in situ single-crystal X-ray diffraction study

The structural evolution at high pressure of a natural 2M ₁-phengite [(K_0.98Na_0.02)_Σ=1.00(Al_1.55Mg_0.24Fe_0.21Ti_0.02)_Σ=2.01(Si_3.38Al_0.62)O₁₀(OH)₂; a = 5.228(2), b = 9.057(3), c = 19.971(6)Å, β = 95.76(2)°; space group: C2/c] from the metamorphic complex of Cima Pal (Sesia Zone, Western Alps, Italy) was studied by single-crystal X-ray diffraction with a diamond anvil cell under hydrostatic conditions up to ~11 GPa. A series of 12 structure refinements were performed at selected pressures within the P range investigated. The compressional behaviour of the same phengite sample was previously studied up to ~25 GPa by synchrotron X-ray powder diffraction, showing an irreversible transformation with a drastic decrease of the crystallinity at P > 15–17 GPa. The elastic behaviour between 0.0001 and 17 GPa was modelled by a third-order Birch–Murnaghan Equation of State (BM-EoS), yielding to K _T0 = 57.3(10) GPa and K′ = ?K _T0/?P = 6.97(24). The single-crystal structure refinements showed that the significant elastic anisotropy of the 2M ₁-phengite (with β(a):β(b):β(c) = 1:1.17:4.60) is mainly controlled by the anisotropic compression of the K-polyhedra. The evolution of the volume of the inter-layer K-polyhedron as a function of P shows a negative slope, Fitting the P–V(K-polyhedron) data with a truncated second-order BM-EoS we obtain a bulk modulus value of K _T0(K-polyhedron) = 26(1) GPa. Tetrahedra and octahedra are significantly stiffer than the K-polyhedron. Tetrahedra behave as quasi-rigid units within the P range investigated. In contrast, a monotonic decrease is observed for the octahedron volume, with K _T0 = 120(10) GPa derived by a BM-EoS. The anisotropic response to pressure of the K-polyhedron affects the P-induced deformation mechanism on the tetrahedral sheet, consisting in a cooperative rotation of the tetrahedra and producing a significant ditrigonalization of the six-membered rings. The volume of the K-polyhedron and the value of the ditrigonal rotation parameter (α) show a high negative correlation (about 93%), though a slight discontinuity is observed at P >8 GPa. α increases linearly with P up to 7–8 GPa (with ?α/?P ≈ 0.7°/GPa), whereas at higher Ps a “saturation plateau” is visible. A comparison between the main deformation mechanisms as a function of pressure observed in 2M ₁- and 3T-phengite is discussed.     

Benthic fluxes of mercury species in a lagoon environment (Grado Lagoon,Northern Adriatic Sea,Italy)

The role of the major biogeochemical processes in Hg cycling at the sediment–water interface was investigated in the Grado Lagoon (Northern Adriatic Sea). This wetland system has been extensively contaminated from the Idrija Hg Mine (Slovenia) through the Isonzo River suspended load carried by tidal fluxes. Three approaches were used to study the sediment–water exchange of total Hg (THg), methylmercury (MeHg), reactive Hg (RHg) and dissolved gaseous Hg (DGHg): (1) estimation of diffusive fluxes from porewater and overlying water concentrations, (2) measurements of benthic fluxes using a deployed light benthic chamber in situ and (3) measurements of benthic fluxes during oxic–anoxic transition with a laboratory incubation experiment. The THg solid phase, ranging between 9.5 and 14.4 μg g⁻¹, showed slight variability with depth and time. Conversely, MeHg contents were highest (up to 21.9 ng g⁻¹) at the surface; they tended to decrease to nearly zero concentration with depth, thus suggesting that MeHg production and accumulation occur predominantly just below the sediment–water interface. Porewater MeHg concentrations (0.9–7.9 ng L⁻¹, 0.15–15% of THg) varied seasonally; higher contents were observed in the warmer period. The MeHg diffusive fluxes (up to 17 ng m⁻² day⁻¹) were similar to those in the nearby Gulf of Trieste [Covelli, S., Horvat, M., Faganeli, J., Brambati, A., 1999. Porewater distribution and benthic flux of mercury and methylmercury in the Gulf of Trieste (Northern Adriatic Sea). Estuar. Coast. Shelf Sci. 48, 415–428], although the lagoon sediments contained four-fold higher THg concentrations. Conversely, the THg diffusive fluxes in the lagoon (up to 110 ng m⁻² day⁻¹) were one- to two-fold higher than those previously estimated for the Gulf of Trieste. The diurnal MeHg benthic fluxes were highest in summer at both sites (41,000 and 33,000 ng m⁻² day⁻¹ at the fishfarm and in the open lagoon, respectively), thus indicating the influence of temperature on microbial processes. The diurnal variations of dissolved THg and especially MeHg were positively correlated with O₂ and inversely with DIC, suggesting an important influence of benthic photosynthetic activities on lagoon benthic Hg cycling, possibly through the production of organic matter promptly available for methylation. The results from the dark chamber incubated in the laboratory showed that the regeneration of dissolved THg was slightly affected by the oxic–anoxic transition. Conversely, the benthic flux of MeHg was up to 15-fold higher in sediments overlain by O₂ depleted waters. In the anoxic phase, the MeHg fluxes proceeded in parallel with Fe fluxes and the methylated form reached approximately 100% of dissolved THg. The MeHg is mostly released into overlying water (mean recycling efficiency of 89%) until the occurrence of sulphide inhibition, due to scavenging of the available Hg substrate for methylation. The results suggest that sediments in the Grado Lagoon, especially during anoxic events, should be considered as a primary source of MeHg for the water column.