Dynamics of the boreal summer African monsoon in the NSIPP1 atmospheric model

A nine-member ensemble of simulations with a state-of-the-art atmospheric model forced only by the observed record of sea surface temperature (SST) over 1930–2000 is shown to capture the dominant patterns of variability of boreal summer African rainfall. One pattern represents variability along the Gulf of Guinea, between the equator and 10°N. It connects rainfall over Africa to the Atlantic marine Intertropical Convergence Zone, is controlled by local, i.e., eastern equatorial Atlantic, SSTs, and is interannual in time scale. The other represents variability in the semi-arid Sahel, between 10°N and 20°N. It is a continental pattern, capturing the essence of the African summer monsoon, while at the same time displaying high sensitivity to SSTs in the global tropics. A land–atmosphere feedback associated with this pattern translates precipitation anomalies into coherent surface temperature and evaporation anomalies, as highlighted by a simulation where soil moisture is held fixed to climatology. As a consequence of such feedback, it is shown that the recent positive trend in surface temperature is consistent with the ocean-forced negative trend in precipitation, without the need to invoke the direct effect of the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gases. We advance plausible mechanisms by which the balance between land–ocean temperature contrast and moisture availability that defines the monsoon could have been altered in recent decades, resulting in persistent drought. This discussion also serves to illustrate ways in which the monsoon may be perturbed, or may already have been perturbed, by anthropogenic climate change.     

Epifaunal communities thrive in an estuary with hypoxic episodes

We characterized the abundance and species composition of sessile and mobile epifaunal assemblages in the York River, a tributary of the Chesapeake Bay, U.S., during the summer hypoxia seasons in 1996 and 1997. We collected communities on artificial substrates in two areas of the river that have historically experienced different exposure to hypoxia. Despite frequent hypoxic stress, epifauna formed dense communities in both areas. Dominant species comprised a range of phyla and included the polychaetesPolydora cornuta andSabellaria vulgaris, the bryozoansMembranipora tenuis andConopeum tenuissimum, the tunicateMolgula manhattensis, the barnacleBalanus improvisus, the anemoneDiadumene leucolena, and the hydroidsEctopleura dumortieri andObelia bicuspidata. Common mobile species included the nudibranchsCratena kaoruae andDoridella obscura, the amphipodsMelita nitida andParacaprella tenuis, the polychaeteNereis succinea, and the flatwormStylochus ellipticus. We found few differences in species composition between the two areas, even though one area usually experienced lower oxygen concentrations during hypoxic events, suggesting that hypoxia does not exclude any epifaunal species, in the York River. We did find differences between the two study areas in percent cover and abundance of some species. While tunicates, hydroids, and anemones were equally abundant in both areas during both study years, bryozoans and the polychaeteS. vulgaris were more abundant in the area with gereally higher oxygen, suggesting that they may be less tolerant of hypoxic stress. The polychaeteP. cornuta was more abundant in the area that usually had lower oxygen. These results suggest that many epifaunal species have high hypoxia tolerance, and most epifaunal species found in the lowr York River are able to survive in hypoxic areas. Epifaunal species are not necessarily more susceptible to hypoxia than infaunal species in the York River. Epifaunal communities in areas with brief hypoxic episodes and moderate hypoxia (0.5–2 mg O₂ I⁻¹) can persist with little change in species composition, and with few changes in abundance, as oxygen concentrations fall.     

Seasonal forecasts in the Sahel region: the use of rainfall-based predictive variables

In the Sahel region, seasonal predictions are crucial to alleviate the impacts of climate variability on populations' livelihoods. Agricultural planning (e.g., decisions about sowing date, fertilizer application date, and choice of crop or cultivar) is based on empirical predictive indices whose accuracy to date has not been scientifically proven. This paper attempts to statistically test whether the pattern of rainfall distribution over the May–July period contributes to predicting the real onset date and the nature (wet or dry) of the rainy season, as farmers believe. To that end, we considered historical records of daily rainfall from 51 stations spanning the period 1920–2008 and the different agro-climatic zones in Burkina Faso. We performed (1) principal component analysis to identify climatic zones, based on the patterns of intra-seasonal rainfall, (2) and linear discriminant analysis to find the best rainfall-based variables to distinguish between real and false onset dates of the rainy season, and between wet and dry seasons in each climatic zone. A total of nine climatic zones were identified in each of which, based on rainfall records from May to July, we derived linear discriminant functions to correctly predict the nature of a potential onset date of the rainy season (real or false) and that of the rainy season (dry or wet) in at least three cases out of five. These functions should contribute to alleviating the negative impacts of climate variability in the different climatic zones of Burkina Faso.     

Enhanced spring convective barrier for monsoons in a warmer world?

Twenty-first century climate model projections show an amplification of the annual cycle in tropical precipitation with increased strength in both wet and dry seasons, but uncertainty is large and few studies have examined transition seasons. Here we analyze coupled climate model projections of global land monsoons and show a redistribution of precipitation from spring to summer in northern (North America, West Africa and Southeast Asia) and southern (South America, Southern Africa) regions. The annual cycle changes are global in scale. Two mechanisms, remote (based on tropospheric stability) and local (based on low level and surface moisture), are evaluated through the annual cycle. Increases in tropospheric stability persist from winter into spring and are reinforced by a reduction in surface moisture conditions, suggesting that in spring both remote and local mechanisms act to inhibit convection. This enhanced spring convective barrier leads to reduced early season rainfall; however, once sufficient increases in moisture (by transport) are achieved, decreases in tropospheric stability result in increased precipitation during the late rainy season. Further examination of this mechanism is needed in observations and models, as the projected changes would have substantial implications for agriculture, water management, and disaster preparedness.     

Analysis of the impulsive phase of a solar flare at submillimeter wavelengths

We present a report on the strong X5.3 solar flare which occurred on 25 August 2001, producing high-level γ-ray activity, nuclear lines and a dramatic long-duration white-light continuum. The bulk of millimeter radio fluxes reached a peak of ∼100 000 solar flux units at 89.4 GHz, and a few thousands of solar flux units were detected in the submillimeter range during the impulsive phase. In this paper we focus on and discuss (i) the implications inferred from high frequency radio observations during the impulsive phase; (ii) the dynamics of the low corona active region during the impulsive phase. In particular we found that 4–5 × 10³⁶ accelerated (>20 keV) electrons s⁻¹ radiating in a 1000–1100 G region, are needed to explain the millimeter to submillimeter-wave emissions. We present evidence that the magnetic field in the active region was very dynamic, and that strong non-thermal processes were triggered by the appearance of new, compact, low-lying (few thousand kilometers) loop systems, suggesting the acceleration site(s) were also located in the low solar atmosphere.     

Effects of soil-engineering properties on the failure mode of shallow landslides

Some landslides mobilize into flows, while others slide and deposit material immediately down slope. An index based on initial dry density and fine-grained content of soil predicted failure mode of 96 landslide initiation sites in Oregon and Colorado with 79% accuracy. These material properties can be used to identify potential sources for debris flows and for slides. Field data suggest that loose soils can evolve from dense soils that dilate upon shearing. The method presented herein to predict failure mode is most applicable for shallow (depth <5?m), well-graded soils (coefficient of uniformity >8), with few to moderate fines (fine-grained content <18%), and with liquid limits <40.     

Explosion craters associated with shallow submarine gas venting off Panarea island, Italy

Explosions of hot water, steam, and gas are common periodic events of subaerial geothermal systems. These highly destructive events may cause loss of life and substantial damage to infrastructure, especially in densely populated areas and where geothermal systems are actively exploited for energy. We report on the occurrence of a large number of explosion craters associated with the offshore venting of gas and thermal waters at the volcanic island of Panarea, Italy, demonstrating that violent explosions similar to those observed on land also are common in the shallow submarine environment. With diameters ranging from 5 to over 100?m, the observed circular seafloor depressions record a history of major gas explosions caused by frequent perturbation of the submarine geothermal system over the past 10,000?years. Estimates of the total gas flux indicate that the Panarea geothermal system released over 70?Mt of CO₂ over this period of time, suggesting that CO₂ venting at submerged arc volcanoes contributes significantly to the global atmospheric budget of this greenhouse gas. The findings at Panarea highlight that shallow submarine gas explosions represent a previously unrecognized volcanic hazard around populated volcanic islands that needs to be taken into account in the development of risk management strategies.     

Seismic reliability of V‐braced frames: Influence of design methodologies

According to the most modern trend, performance‐based seismic design is aimed at the evaluation of the seismic structural reliability defined as the mean annual frequency (MAF) of exceeding a threshold level of damage, i.e. a limit state. The methodology for the evaluation of the MAF of exceeding a limit state is herein applied with reference to concentrically ‘V’‐braced steel frames designed according to different criteria. In particular, two design approaches are examined. The first approach corresponds to the provisions suggested by Eurocode 8 (prEN 1998—Eurocode 8: design of structures for earthquake resistance. Part 1: general rules, seismic actions and rules for buildings), while the second approach is based on a rigorous application of capacity design criteria aiming at the control of the failure mode (J. Earthquake Eng. 2008; 12 :1246–1266; J. Earthquake Eng. 2008; 12 :728–759). The aim of the presented work is to focus on the seismic reliability obtained through these design methodologies. The probabilistic performance evaluation is based on an appropriate combination of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, probabilistic seismic demand analysis (PSDA) and probabilistic seismic capacity analysis. Regarding PSDA, nonlinear dynamic analyses have been carried out in order to obtain the parameters describing the probability distribution laws of demand, conditioned to given values of the earthquake intensity measure. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Glyphosate persistence in seawater

Glyphosate is one of the most widely applied herbicides globally but its persistence in seawater has not been reported. Here we quantify the biodegradation of glyphosate using standard “simulation” flask tests with native bacterial populations and coastal seawater from the Great Barrier Reef. The half-life for glyphosate at 25 °C in low-light was 47 days, extending to 267 days in the dark at 25 °C and 315 days in the dark at 31 °C, which is the longest persistence reported for this herbicide. AMPA, the microbial transformation product of glyphosate, was detected under all conditions, confirming that degradation was mediated by the native microbial community. This study demonstrates glyphosate is moderately persistent in the marine water under low light conditions and is highly persistent in the dark. Little degradation would be expected during flood plumes in the tropics, which could potentially deliver dissolved and sediment-bound glyphosate far from shore.