Integration of EO-based vulnerability estimation into EO-based seismic damage assessment: a case study on L’Aquila, Italy, 2009 earthquake

Remote sensing is proving very useful for identifying damage and planning support activities after an earthquake has stricken. Radar sensors increasingly show their value as a tool for damage detection, due to their shape-sensitiveness, their extreme versatility and operability, all weather conditions. The previous work of our research group, conducted on 1-m resolution spotlight images produced by COSMO-SkyMed, has led to the discovery of a link between some selected texture measures, computed on radar maps over single blocks of an urban area, and the damage found in these neighbourhoods. Texture-to-damage correlation was used to develop a SAR-based damage assessment method, but significant residual within-class variability makes estimations sometimes unreliable. Among the possible remedies, the injection of physical vulnerability data into the model was suggested. The idea here is to do so while keeping all the sources of data in the EO domain, by estimating physical vulnerability from the observation of high-resolution optical data on the area of interest. Although preliminary results seem to suggest that no significant improvement can be directly obtained on classification accuracy, there appears to be some link between estimated damage and estimated accuracy on which to build a more refined version of the damage estimator.     

Use of sedimentary pigments to infer past phosphorus concentration in lakes

We propose a palaeolimnological method for inferring past total phosphorus (TP) concentrations in lake water from spectrophotometrically-measured sedimentary pigments, particularly total carotenoids (TC). Our approach is based on a highly significant statistical correlation (P < 0.0001) between pigment concentrations (total carotenoids) in the surface sediment of 28 Italian lakes (subalpine, large, deep, shallow, volcanic) and TP concentrations measured in these lakes at overturn when the core was collected. A transfer function was developed from this “training” set, and used to estimate past TP concentrations from pigment concentrations in sediment cores. The results generally agreed with TP values as measured by long-term water quality monitoring programs. Contrasting results were obtained by a comparison with diatom-inferred TP. While the diatom model showed a tendency to overestimate TP values higher than 100 μg l⁻¹, the pigment model correctly estimated TP in lakes when TP was <100 μg l⁻¹, but not when lakes were rich in macrophytes. In fact, lakes with extensive populations of aquatic submersed macrophytes and epiphytes are outliers in terms of the TC versus TP relationship. The root mean square error of prediction of the pigment model is lower than those derived from certain diatom—based inference models. The predicted and residual values are not related to the estimated values and their average is not statistically different from zero. Errors were estimated via a ‘leave-one-out’ re-sampling technique. The proposed method permits rapid and relatively inexpensive determination of reference trophic conditions.     

Contributions respectives des courants et de la houle dans la mobilité sédimentaire d'une plate-forme interne estuarienne. Exemple : le seuil interinsulaire,au large du pertuis d'Antioche,France

This paper investigates the relative influence of waves, wind-induced current and tidal current on the sediment mobility of a macro-tidal environment belonging to the inner shelf seaward of the ‘pertuis Charentais’ (France). This study, mainly based on three-week hydrodynamic in-situ measurements, shows that, for a water depth of 23 m, the swell (rather than wind waves) orbital velocity is large enough to initiate the motion of medium sands that are then transported by currents. Estimations show that medium sand of 0.2 mm is transported during 92% of the measurements, whereas coarse sand and gravel move sporadically, during storm, synchronously with spring tides. Further more, bedload fluxes appear strongly larger when waves are taken into account (370 times larger for 0.2-mm sands). To cite this article: D. Idier et al., C. R. Geoscience 338 (2006).     

Early succession of micro‐periphyton communities in kelp bed and barren ground ecological systems

In shallow sublittoral rocky habitats of the Southeast Pacific, two conspicuous ecological systems exist; kelp beds dominated by large Laminariales algae, and barren grounds dominated by crustose coralline algae and sea urchins. The aim of this study was to examine the successional development of micro‐periphyton communities in both ecological systems using a colonization experiment conducted in Northern Chile. In both ecological systems, we installed replicated ceramic plates at 10 m depth and samples were taken after 1, 2, 4, 6, 8 and 14 days of exposure. Bacteria, diatoms, protozoans and small eukaryotes were identified, quantified and analysed. The succession of micro‐periphyton communities in both ecological systems followed a common pattern consisting of a net accumulation of functional groups and taxa over time; however, the total density of all groups was significantly higher in the kelp beds. In addition, the community structure of the developing micro‐periphytons was different and specific for each ecological system. Although previous studies have suggested that kelp beds and barren grounds are capable of switching from one state to the other without substantial changes in biodiversity, our results show that each of these ecological systems promotes its own successional development, suggesting that they are unique, self‐organized entities. This study is the first step towards an understanding of these ecological systems operating independently at this scale of organization.     

Effects of short flexible seagrass Zostera noltei on flow,erosion and deposition processes determined using flume experiments

Innovative flume experiments were conducted in a recirculating straight flume. Zostera noltei meadows were sampled in their natural bed sediments in the field at contrasting stages of their seasonal growth. The aims of this study were: (i) to quantify the combined effects of leaf flexibility and development characteristics of Zostera noltei canopies on their interaction with hydrodynamics; and (ii) to quantify the role of Zostera noltei meadows in suspended sediment trapping and bed sediment resuspension related with changes in hydrodynamic forcing caused by the seasonal development of seagrasses. Velocity within the canopy was significantly damped. The attenuation in velocity ranged from 34 to 87% compared with bare sediments and was associated with a density threshold resulting from the flow‐induced canopy reconfiguration. The reduction in flow was higher in dense canopies at higher velocities than in less dense canopies, in which the reduction in flow was greater at low velocities. These contrasted results can be explained by competition between a rough‐wall boundary layer caused by the bed and a shear layer caused by the canopy. The velocity attenuation was associated with a two to three‐fold increase in bottom shear stress compared with unvegetated sediment. Despite the increase in near‐bed turbulence, protection of the sediment against erosion increased under a fully developed meadow, while sediment properties were found to be the main factor controlling erosion in a less developed meadow. Deposition fluxes were higher on the vegetated bed than on bare sediments, and these fluxes increased with leaf density. Fewer freshly deposited sediments were resuspended in vegetated beds, resulting in an increase in net sediment deposition with meadow growth. However, in the case of a very high leaf area index, sediment was mostly deposited on leaves, which facilitated subsequent resuspension and resulted in less efficient sediment trapping than in the less developed meadow.     

Rapid estimation of ground-shaking maps for seismic emergency management in the Campania Region of southern Italy

Strong ground-shaking mapping soon after a moderate-to-large earthquake is crucial to recognize the areas that have suffered the largest damage and losses. These maps have a fundamental role for emergency services, loss estimation and planning of emergency actions by the Civil Protection Authorities. This is particularly important for areas with high seismic risk levels, such as the Campania-Lucania Region in southern Italy. Taking advantage of the Irpinia Seismic Network (ISNet), a recently installed dense and wide dynamic seismic network, we have developed a procedure for rapid estimation of ground-shaking maps after moderate-to-large earthquakes (GRSmap). This uses an optimal data gridding scheme designed to account for bi-dimensional features of strong ground-motion fields, such as directivity, radiation patterns and focal mechanisms, to which most damage can be correlated. The basis of the mapping technique is a triangulation procedure to locally correct predicted data at the triangle barycentres where their vertices correspond to seismic stations. The method has been tested off-line using a simulated M 6.6 earthquake located at the centre of ISNet and applied to data of the 23 November 1980 Irpina M 6.9 earthquake recorded by a sparse network. This has highlighted its ability to predict peak ground-motion parameters of large magnitude earthquakes with respect to the attenuation relationships.     

Prediction of response spectra via real-time earthquake measurements

The development and implementation of an earthquake early warning system (EEWS), both in regional or on-site configurations can help to mitigate the losses due to the occurrence of moderate-to-large earthquakes in densely populated and/or industrialized areas. The capability of an EEWS to provide real-time estimates of source parameters (location and magnitude) can be used to take some countermeasures during the earthquake occurrence and before the arriving of the most destructive waves at the site of interest. However, some critical issues are peculiar of EEWS and need further investigation: (1) the uncertainties on earthquake magnitude and location estimates based on the measurements of some observed quantities in the very early portion of the recorded signals; (2) the selection of the most appropriate parameter to be used to predict the ground motion amplitude both in near- and far-source ranges; (3) the use of the estimates provided by the EEWS for structural engineering and risk mitigation applications.In the present study, the issues above are discussed using the Campania–Lucania region (Southern Apennines) in Italy, as test-site area. In this region a prototype system for earthquake early warning, and more generally for seismic alert management, is under development. The system is based on a dense, wide dynamic accelerometric network deployed in the area where the moderate-to-large earthquake causative fault systems are located.The uncertainty analysis is performed through a real-time probabilistic seismic hazard analysis by using two different approaches. The first is the Bayesian approach that implicitly integrate both the time evolving estimate of earthquake parameters, the probability density functions and the variability of ground motion propagation providing the most complete information. The second is a classical point estimate approach which does not account for the probability density function of the magnitude and only uses the average of the estimates performed at each seismic station.Both the approaches are applied to two main towns located in the area of interest, Napoli and Avellino, for which a missed and false alarm analysis is presented by means of a scenario earthquake: an M 7.0 seismic event located at the centre of the seismic network.Concerning the ground motion prediction, attention is focused on the response spectra as the most appropriate function to characterize the ground motion for earthquake engineering applications of EEWS.