Climate change in the Paraná state,Brazil: responses to increasing atmospheric CO 2 in reference evapotranspiration

The hydrological variable evapotranspiration (ET) is challenging to estimate because it cannot be measured directly in natural environments (except in small plots). The uncertainties associated with the models used for its prediction have increased under climate change conditions. We studied the influence of stomatal resistance on ET estimates using the Penman-Monteith method as projected by three general circulation models in two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for future climates throughout the twenty-first century (2010–2039, 2040–2069, and 2070–2099). We also investigated the probable ET rate changes in relation to the current (30 years average, 1980–2009) climate conditions for the Paraná state in the southern region of Brazil. The results were regionalized to help policymakers assess climate change impacts and design adaptation measures. ET increases of up to 15% were found in future climate conditions, which may lead to a significant increase in the water demand for agricultural crops. However, we believe that plant morphophysiological changes may occur under atmospheric CO2 enrichment conditions and that a possible reduction in stomatal conductance will result in lower ET increases than those obtained with the traditional Penman-Monteith method. When considering future climate scenarios, we propose the equation be adjusted to consider stomatal resistance as a function of CO2 concentrations.     

Mineralogy,geochemistry and petrogenesis of the Khopoli mafic intrusion,Deccan Traps,India

The Khopoli intrusion, exposed at the base of the Thakurvadi Formation of the Deccan Traps in the Western Ghats, India, is composed of olivine gabbro with 50–55 % modal olivine, 20–25 % plagioclase, 10–15 % clinopyroxene, 5–10 % low-Ca pyroxene, and <5 % Fe-Ti oxides. It represents a cumulate rock from which trapped interstitial liquid was almost completely expelled. The Khopoli olivine gabbros have high MgO (23.5–26.9 wt.%), Ni (733–883 ppm) and Cr (1,432–1,048 ppm), and low concentrations of incompatible elements including the rare earth elements (REE). The compositions of the most primitive cumulus olivine and clinopyroxene indicate that the parental magma of the Khopoli intrusion was an evolved basaltic melt (Mg# 49–58). Calculated parental melt compositions in equilibrium with clinopyroxene are moderately enriched in the light REE and show many similarities with Deccan tholeiitic basalts of the Bushe, Khandala and Thakurvadi Formations. Nd-Sr isotopic compositions of Khopoli olivine gabbros (εNd_t?=??9.0 to ?12.7; ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr?=?0.7088–0.7285) indicate crustal contamination. AFC modelling suggests that the Khopoli olivine gabbros were derived from a Thakurvadi or Khandala-like basaltic melt with variable degrees of crustal contamination. Unlike the commonly alkalic, pre- and post-volcanic intrusions known in the Deccan Traps, the Khopoli intrusion provides a window to the shallow subvolcanic architecture and magmatic processes associated with the main tholeiitic flood basalt sequence. Measured true density values of the Khopoli olivine gabbros are as high as 3.06 g/cm³, and such high-level olivine-rich intrusions in flood basalt provinces can also explain geophysical observations such as high gravity anomalies and high seismic velocity crustal horizons.     

Alteration patterns of chromian spinels from La Cabaña peridotite,south-central Chile

La Cabaña peridotite is part of a dismembered ophiolite complex located within the metamorphic basement of the Coastal Cordillera of south-central Chile, and is the only location in Chile were Cr-spinels have been described so far. The La Cabaña peridotite is part of the Western Series unit, which comprises meta-sedimentary rocks, metabasites, and serpentinized ultramafic rocks. This unit has been affected by greenschist-facies metamorphism with reported peak PT conditions of 7.0–9.3 kbar and 380°–420 °C. Within La Cabaña peridotite Cr-spinels are present in two localities: Lavanderos and Centinela Bajo. In Lavanderos, Cr-spinel occurs in small chromitite pods and as accessory/disseminated grains with a porous or spongy texture in serpentinite, whereas in Centinela Bajo Cr-spinel is present as accessory zoned grains in partly serpentinized dunites, and in chromitite blocks. All Cr-spinels display variable degrees of alteration to Fe²⁺-rich chromite with a variation trend of major elements from chromite to Fe²⁺-rich chromite similar to those observed in other locations, i.e., an increase in Fe₂O₃ and FeO, a decrease in Al₂O₃ and MgO. Cr₂O₃ content increases from chromite to Fe²⁺-rich chromite in chromitite pods from Lavanderos and chromitite blocks from Centinela Bajo, but decreases in ferrian chromite zones in accessory grains from Centinela Bajo. The minor element (Ti, V, Zn, Ni) content is mostly low and does not exceed 0.4 wt.%, with the exception of MnO (<0.9 wt.%), which shows a correspondence with increasing degree of alteration. Cr# (Cr/Cr?+?Al) versus Mg# (Mg/Mg?+?Fe²⁺) and Fe³⁺/Fe³⁺+Fe²⁺ versus Mg# plots are used to illustrate the Cr-spinel alteration process. Overall, the Cr-spinels from Lavanderos (chromitite pods and disseminated grains) exhibit Cr# values ranging from 0.6 to 1.0, Mg# (Mg/Mg?+?Fe²⁺) below 0.5, and (Fe³⁺/Fe³⁺+Fe²⁺) <0.4. Cr-spinels from chromitites in Centinela Bajo have Cr# and Mg# values that range from 0.65 to 1.0, and 0.7-0.3, respectively, and (Fe³⁺/Fe³⁺+Fe²⁺)?3+/Fe³⁺+Fe²⁺) ratio is less than 0.4 in chromite cores and Fe²⁺-rich chromite, and >0.5 in ferrian chromite and Cr-magnetite. Interpretation of the data obtained and Cr-spinel textures indicate that the alteration of Cr-spinel is a progressive process that involves in its initial stages the reaction of chromite with olivine under water-saturated conditions to produce clinochlore and Fe²⁺-rich chromite. During this stage the chromite can also incorporate Ni, Mn, and/or Zn from the serpentinization fluids. As alteration progresses, Fe²⁺-rich chromite loses mass resulting in the development of a spongy texture. In a later stage and under more oxidizing conditions Fe³⁺ is incorporated in chromite/Fe²⁺-rich chromite shifting its composition to an Fe³⁺-rich chromite (i.e., ferrian chromite). Depending on the fluid/rock and Cr-spinel/silicate ratios, Cr-magnetite can also form over Fe²⁺-rich chromite and/or ferrian chromite as a secondary overgrowth. The compositional changes observed in Cr-spinels from La Cabaña reflect the initial stages of alteration under serpentinization conditions. Results from this study show that the alteration of Cr-spinels is dependent on temperature. The degree and extent of alteration (formation of Fe²⁺-rich and/or ferrian chromite) are controlled by the redox nature of the fluids, the Cr-spinel/silicate and the fluid/rock ratios.     

A reduced-order model for Monte Carlo simulations of stochastic groundwater flow

We explore the ability of the greedy algorithm to serve as an effective tool for the construction of reduced-order models for the solution of fully saturated groundwater flow in the presence of randomly distributed transmissivities. The use of a reduced model is particularly appealing in the context of numerical Monte Carlo (MC) simulations that are typically performed, e.g., within environmental risk assessment protocols. In this context, model order reduction techniques enable one to construct a surrogate model to reduce the computational burden associated with the solution of the partial differential equation governing the evolution of the system. These techniques approximate the model solution with a linear combination of spatially distributed basis functions calculated from a small set of full model simulations. The number and the spatial behavior of these basis functions determine the computational efficiency of the reduced model and the accuracy of the approximated solution. The greedy algorithm provides a deterministic procedure to select the basis functions and build the reduced-order model. Starting from a single basis function, the algorithm enriches the set of basis functions until the largest error between the full and the reduced model solutions is lower than a predefined tolerance. The comparison between the standard MC and the reduced-order approach is performed through a two-dimensional steady-state groundwater flow scenario in the presence of a uniform (in the mean) hydraulic head gradient. The natural logarithm of the aquifer transmissivity is modeled as a second-order stationary Gaussian random field. The accuracy of the reduced basis model is assessed as a function of the correlation scale and variance of the log-transmissivity. We explore the performance of the reduced model in terms of the number of iterations of the greedy algorithm and selected metrics quantifying the discrepancy between the sample distributions of hydraulic heads computed with the full and the reduced model. Our results show that the reduced model is accurate and is highly efficient in the presence of a small variance and/or a large correlation length of the log-transmissivity field. The flow scenarios associated with large variances and small correlation lengths require an increased number of basis functions to accurately describe the collection of the MC solutions, thus reducing significantly the computational advantages associated with the reduced model.     

Towards a spatial data infrastructure for technological disasters: an approach for the road transportation of hazardous materials

Spatial data have been used for the environmental monitoring of the consequences of accidents that involve the transportation of hazardous chemical products. This spatial data infrastructure (SDI), which was created for the sharing and use of spatial data, is limited by the absence of policies to support its establishment. The main objective of this study was to explore the use of social network analysis (SNA) as a tool to identify spatial data sharing between organizations involved in the management of accidents related to road transport of hazardous materials (RTHM). In addition, to discuss the existing policies and institutional agreements, and to initiate a conceptual SDI framework for RTHM sector. In this context, the institutions that are involved with RTHM were identified and information concerning their interest in the use and sharing of spatial data via a SDI was collected through interviews and consolidated. The interviews were at 39 institutions with representative employees. The interview data were tabulated and entered into the UCINET software (2000 version) to calculate metrics of centrality. From the SNA, the flow of data among the participating institutions was identified through the visual representation of the spatial data sharing and use networks. Subsequently, the existing institutional agreements for spatial data sharing were analyzed and discussed. The compiled results enabled the proposal of a conceptual SDI framework to support the management of disasters involving RTHM, based on the application of SNA theory, and the development of a methodology that supports the analysis of interactions among the various actors of an SDI. The purpose is to facilitate the formulation of policies for the sharing of spatial data for decision-making and preventive disaster management. The results indicate that the 39 institutions share spatial data, but this sharing is not always predetermined by formal agreements. Furthermore, there is a strong demand, by the institutions involved in the management of RTHM accidents, regarding legal mechanisms governing the sharing of data for the purpose of producing maps that help to describe actions of preparedness, prevention, management and immediate relief involving RTHM incidents. Finally, it was possible to propose a conceptual framework with data that is considered essential for creating an SDI for RTHM.     

Topological redundancy and ‘small‐world’ patterns in a food web in a subtropical ecosystem of Brazil

According to graph theory, the frequency distribution of trophic interactions within a food web has deep structural implications, as it can highlight the presence of patterns associated with the web and indicate whether the properties of the web are independent of its size. A hypothesis is that ‘small‐world’ food webs are sensitive to the loss of species with the highest values. Therefore, the present work aimed to evaluate the degree to which a subtropical food web in Southern Brazil displays small‐world patterns and their resistance. As part of the assessment, we evaluated the topological redundancy values of species in the food web and then we simulated the exclusion of these species (such as sharks and sea birds), and also the exclusion of high centrality species (such as squids Loligo sp., portunid swimming crabs and the cutlassfish Trichiurus lepturus). The food web showed a ‘broad‐scale’ distribution of connections by node, and a small‐world pattern. As expected, a simplification of the network was observed after elimination of some species with high centrality. However, the food web was resistant to the loss of species with low topological redundancy, probably because these species occupy a high trophic level and do not participate in lots of routes within the food web. We highlight however, the importance of the application of multiple analyses to evaluate the importance of components in food webs, and fisheries management plans should consider both species of high centrality values and species with low topological redundancy.     

Lateglacial and Holocene palaeoenvironments at Sierra La Madera,northwestern Mexico: Sharp signals of Younger Dryas and North American monsoon

During the last glacial termination, the climate system experienced intense global variations whose causes and impacts are not fully defined, particularly for low latitudes. The northwestern Mexico Sky Islands present a climate-sensitive ideal setting to record palaeoecological and palaeoclimatic changes due to their physiographic complexity and location in the ecotone between temperate and tropical ecosystems. High-resolution pollen analysis and a detailed sedimentological study were conducted at the Ciénega Tonibabi tropical thorn scrub site. The 15 540–0 cal a bp nearly continuous record shows that the North Atlantic Ocean did have a cold and humid climatic influence during the glacial stages of the end of the Pleistocene, including a sharp pulse during the Younger Dryas. However, a shift to the Pacific Ocean influence occurred during the Holocene, which led to the development of the El Niño conditions prevailing today. Colder and warmer phases follow one another with higher or lower winter precipitation, including a sharp Bølling–Allerød and development and intensification of the North American monsoon. They are reflected in hydrological changes as well as in the advances, retreats and intermingling of coniferous forests and tropical thorn scrub.     

Glacial oscillations during the Bølling–Allerød Interstadial–Younger Dryas transition in the Ruda Valley,Central Pyrenees

The Upper Garonne Basin included the largest glacial system in the Pyrenees during the last glacial cycle. Within the long-term glacial retreat during Termination-1 (T-1), glacier fluctuations left geomorphic evidence in the area. However, the chronology of T-1 glacial oscillations on the northern slopes of the Central Pyrenees is still poorly constrained. Here, we introduce new geomorphological observations and a 12-sample dataset of ¹⁰Be cosmic-ray exposure ages from the Ruda Valley. This U-shaped valley, surrounded by peaks exceeding 2800 m a.s.l., includes a sequence of moraines and polished surfaces that enabled a reconstruction of the chronology of the last deglaciation. Following the maximum ice extent, warmer conditions prevailing at ~15–14 ka, during the Bølling–Allerød (B–A) Interstadial, favoured glacial retreat in the Ruda Valley. Within the B–A, glaciers experienced two phases of advance/stillstand with moraine formation at 13.5 and 13.0 ka. During the early Younger Dryas (YD), glacial retreat exposed the highest surfaces of the Saboredo Cirque (~2300–2350 m) at 12.7 ka. Small glaciers persisted only inside the highest cirques (~2470 m), such as in Sendrosa Cirque, with moraines stabilising at 12.6 ka. The results of this work present the most complete chronology for Pyrenean glacial oscillations from the B–A to the YD.