Negligent killing of scientific concepts: the stationarity case

Abstract

In scientific vocabulary, the term “process” is used to denote change in time. Even a stationary process describes a system changing in time, rather than a static one that keeps a constant state all the time. However, this is often missed, which has led to misuse of the term “nonstationarity” as a synonym of “change”. A simple rule to avoid such misuse is to answer the question: can the change be predicted in deterministic terms? Only if the answer is positive is it legitimate to invoke nonstationarity. In addition, we should have in mind that models are made to simulate the future rather than to describe the past; the past is characterized by observations (data). Usually future changes are not deterministically predictable and thus the models should, on the one hand, be stationary and, on the other hand, describe in stochastic terms the full variability, originating from all agents of change. Even if the past evolution of the process of interest contains changes explainable in deterministic terms (e.g. urbanization), it is better to describe the future conditions in stationary terms, after “stationarizing” the past observations, i.e. adapting them to represent the future conditions.     

Imprint of Climate Variability on Mesozoic Fossil Tree Rings: Evidences of Solar Activity Signals on Environmental Records Around 200 Million Years Ago?

Evidence of the solar activity modulation of the Earth’s climate has been observed on several parameters, from decadal to millennial time scales. Several proxies have been used to reconstruct the paleoclimate as well as the solar activity. The paleoclimate reconstructions are based on direct and/or indirect effects of global and regional climate conditions. The solar activity reconstructions are based on the production of the ¹⁴C isotope due to the interaction of cosmic ray flux and the Earth’s atmosphere. Because trees respond to climate conditions and store ¹⁴C, they have been used as proxies for both for climate and solar activity reconstructions. The imprints of solar activity cycles dating back to 10,000 years ago have been observed on tree-ring samples using ¹⁴C data, and those dating back to 20 million years ago have been analyzed using fossil tree-growth rings. All this corresponds to the Cenozoic era. However, solar activity imprints on tree rings from earlier than that era have not been investigated yet. In this work, we showed that tree rings from the Mesozoic Era (of ~200 million years ago) recorded 11- and 22-year cycles, which may be related to solar activity cycles, and that were statistically significant at the 95 % confidence level. The fossil wood was collected in the southern region of Brazil. Our analysis of the fossils' tree-ring width series power spectra showed characteristics similar to the modern araucaria tree, with a noticeable decadal periodicity. Assuming that the Earth’s climate responds to solar variability and that responses did not vary significantly over the last ~200 million years, we conclude that the solar–climate connection was likely present during the Mesozoic era.     

A kriging approach based on Aitchison geometry for the characterization of particle-size curves in heterogeneous aquifers

We consider the problem of predicting the spatial field of particle-size curves (PSCs) from a sample observed at a finite set of locations within an alluvial aquifer near the city of Tübingen, Germany. We interpret PSCs as cumulative distribution functions and their derivatives as probability density functions. We thus (a) embed the available data into an infinite-dimensional Hilbert Space of compositional functions endowed with the Aitchison geometry and (b) develop new geostatistical methods for the analysis of spatially dependent functional compositional data. This approach enables one to provide predictions at unsampled locations for these types of data, which are commonly available in hydrogeological applications, together with a quantification of the associated uncertainty. The proposed functional compositional kriging (FCK) predictor is tested on a one-dimensional application relying on a set of 60 PSCs collected along a 5-m deep borehole at the test site. The quality of FCK predictions of PSCs is evaluated through leave-one-out cross-validation on the available data, smoothed by means of Bernstein Polynomials. A comparison of estimates of hydraulic conductivity obtained via our FCK approach against those rendered by classical kriging of effective particle diameters (i.e., quantiles of the PSCs) is provided. Unlike traditional approaches, our method fully exploits the functional form of PSCs and enables one to project the complete information content embedded in the PSC to unsampled locations in the system.     

Mapping the environmental risk of a tourist harbor in order to foster environmental security: Objective vs. subjective assessments

A new definition of environmental security gives equal importance to the objective and subjective assessments of environmental risk. In this framework, the management of tourist harbors has to take into account managers’ perceptions. The subject of the present study is a tourist harbor in southern Italy where six different managers are present. This paper aims to assess subjectively and objectively the environmental risks associated with the harbor, and to compare the results to provide estimates of environmental security. Hereby managers have been interviewed and a simple model is used for making preliminary assessment of environmental risks. The comparison of the results highlighted a common mismatch between risk perception and risk assessment. We demonstrated that the old part of the harbor is less secure than the new part. In addition, one specific manager representing a public authority showed a leading role in ensuring the environmental security of the whole harbor.     

DIRDOP: a directivity approach to determining the seismic rupture velocity vector

Directivity effects are a characteristic of seismic source finiteness and are a consequence of the rupture spread in preferential directions. These effects are manifested through seismic spectral deviations as a function of the observation location. The directivity by Doppler effect method permits estimation of the directions and rupture velocities, beginning from the duration of common pulses, which are identified in waveforms or relative source time functions. The general model of directivity that supports the method presented here is a Doppler analysis based on a kinematic source model of rupture (Haskell, Bull Seismol Soc Am 54:1811–1841, 1964) and a structural medium with spherical symmetry. To evaluate its performance, we subjected the method to a series of tests with synthetic data obtained from ten typical seismic ruptures. The experimental conditions studied correspond with scenarios of simple and complex, unilaterally and bilaterally extended ruptures with different mechanisms and datasets with different levels of azimuthal coverage. The obtained results generally agree with the expected values. We also present four real case studies, applying the method to the following earthquakes: Arequipa, Peru (M _w = 8.4, June 23, 2001); Denali, AK, USA (M _w = 7.8; November 3, 2002); Zemmouri–Boumerdes, Algeria (M _w = 6.8, May 21, 2003); and Sumatra, Indonesia (M _w = 9.3, December 26, 2004). The results obtained from the dataset of the four earthquakes agreed, in general, with the values presented by other authors using different methods and data.     

Nitrogen and carbon cycling in the North Sea and exchange with the North Atlantic—A model study,Part II: Carbon budget and fluxes

The 3-d coupled physical–biogeochemical model ECOHAM (version 3) was applied to the Northwest-European Shelf (47°41′–63°53′N, 15°5′W–13°55′E) for the years 1993–1996. Carbon fluxes were calculated for the years 1995 and 1996 for the inner shelf region, the North Sea (511,725 km²). This period was chosen because it corresponds to a shift from a very high winter-time North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) in 1994/1995, to an extremely low one in 1995/1996, with consequences for the North Sea physics and biogeochemistry. During the first half of 1996, the observed mean SST was about 1 °C lower than in 1995; in the southern part of the North Sea the difference was even larger (up to 3 °C). Due to a different wind regime, the normally prevailing anti-clockwise circulation, as found in winter 1995, was replaced by more complicated circulation patterns in winter 1996. Decreased precipitation over the drainage area of the continental rivers led to a reduction in the total (inorganic and organic) riverine carbon load to the North Sea from 476 Gmol C yr⁻¹ in 1995 to 340 Gmol C yr⁻¹ in 1996. In addition, the North Sea took up 503 Gmol C yr⁻¹ of CO₂ from the atmosphere. According to our calculations, the North Sea was a sink for atmospheric CO₂, at a rate of 0.98 mol C m⁻² yr⁻¹, for both years. The North Sea is divided into two sub-systems: the shallow southern North Sea (SNS; 190,765 km²) and the deeper northern North Sea (NNS; 320,960 km²). According to our findings the SNS is a net-autotrophic system (net ecosystem production NEP>0) but released CO₂ to the atmosphere: 159 Gmol C yr⁻¹ in 1995 and 59 Gmol C yr⁻¹ in 1996. There, the temperature-driven release of CO₂ outcompetes the biological CO₂ drawdown. In the NNS, where respiratory processes prevail (NEP<0), 662 and 562 Gmol C yr⁻¹ were taken up from the atmosphere in 1995 and 1996, respectively. Stratification separates the productive, upper layer from the deeper layers of the water column where respiration/remineralization takes place. Duration and stability of the stratification are determined by the meteorological conditions, in relation to the NAO. Our results suggest that this mechanism controlling the nutrient supply to the upper layer in the northern and central North Sea has a larger impact on the carbon fluxes than changes in lateral transport due to NAOI variations. The North Sea as a whole imports organic carbon and exports inorganic carbon across the outer boundaries, and was found to be net-heterotrophic, more markedly in 1996 than in 1995.     

Well-balanced high-order centered schemes on unstructured meshes for shallow water equations with fixed and mobile bed

In this paper, we study the numerical approximation of the two-dimensional morphodynamic model governed by the shallow water equations and bed-load transport following a coupled solution strategy. The resulting system of governing equations contains non-conservative products and it is solved simultaneously within each time step. The numerical solution is obtained using a new high-order accurate centered scheme of the finite volume type on unstructured meshes, which is an extension of the one-dimensional PRICE-C scheme recently proposed in Canestrelli et al. (2009) [5]. The resulting first-order accurate centered method is then extended to high order of accuracy in space via a high order WENO reconstruction technique and in time via a local continuous space–time Galerkin predictor method. The scheme is applied to the shallow water equations and the well-balanced properties of the method are investigated. Finally, we apply the new scheme to different test cases with both fixed and movable bed. An attractive future of the proposed method is that it is particularly suitable for engineering applications since it allows practitioners to adopt the most suitable sediment transport formula which better fits the field data.