Challenges of an integrated water resource management for the Distrito Federal, Western Central Brazil: climate, land-use and water resources

Land-use/cover change (LUCC) and climate change are major controlling factors for water resources in the Distrito Federal in Western Central Brazil. Dynamic LUCC in the region has severe impacts on water resources, while climate changes during the last three decades is thought to have only moderate effects. LUCC affects water quantity mostly during base flow conditions. River basins with substantial expansion of agriculture since the end 1970s show a dramatic decrease of base flow discharge by 40?C70%, presumably due to irrigation. In contrast, the effects of urbanization on runoff are less distinct, since factors controlling runoff generation might be more variable. For water quality, we found urban areas to have a strong influence on the parameters CSB, NH₄ ⁺, and suspended solids. In addition, we assume emerging pollutants, e.g. organic (micro)pollutants, might play a major role in the future. The project IWAS-áGUA DF focuses on creating the scientific base to face these problems in frame of an IWRM concept for the region. Results of our study will be a contribution to an IRWM concept for the Distrito Federal and will help to maintain high standards in water supply for the region.     

Validation of Landslide Susceptibility Maps; Examples and Applications from a Case Study in Northern Spain

A procedure for validating landslide susceptibility maps wasapplied in a study area in northern Spain and the results obtained compared. Validationwas used to carry out sensitivity analysis for individual variables and combinationsof variables. The validity of different map-making methods was tested, as well as theutility of different types of Favourability Functions. The results obtained show thatvalidation is essential to determine the predictive value of susceptibility maps. Italso helps to better select the most suitable function and significant variables, thus improving the efficiency of the mapping process. Validation based on a temporal strategy makes it possible to derive hazard maps from susceptibility maps.     

Uncertainty quantification of overpressure buildup through inverse modeling of compaction processes in sedimentary basins

This study illustrates a procedure conducive to a preliminary risk analysis of overpressure development in sedimentary basins characterized by alternating depositional events of sandstone and shale layers. The approach rests on two key elements: (1) forward modeling of fluid flow and compaction, and (2) application of a model-complexity reduction technique based on a generalized polynomial chaos expansion (gPCE). The forward model considers a one-dimensional vertical compaction processes. The gPCE model is then used in an inverse modeling context to obtain efficient model parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification. The methodology is applied to two field settings considered in previous literature works, i.e. the Venture Field (Scotian Shelf, Canada) and the Navarin Basin (Bering Sea, Alaska, USA), relying on available porosity and pressure information for model calibration. It is found that the best result is obtained when porosity and pressure data are considered jointly in the model calibration procedure. Uncertainty propagation from unknown input parameters to model outputs, such as pore pressure vertical distribution, is investigated and quantified. This modeling strategy enables one to quantify the relative importance of key phenomena governing the feedback between sediment compaction and fluid flow processes and driving the buildup of fluid overpressure in stratified sedimentary basins characterized by the presence of low-permeability layers. The results here illustrated (1) allow for diagnosis of the critical role played by the parameters of quantitative formulations linking porosity and permeability in compacted shales and (2) provide an explicit and detailed quantification of the effects of their uncertainty in field settings.     

Ordovician igneous and metamorphic units in southeastern Puna: New U–Pb and Sm–Nd data and implications for the evolution of northwestern Argentina

New field, petrological, geochemical, and geochronological data (U–Pb and Sm–Nd) for Ordovician rock units in the southeastern Puna, NW Argentina, indicate two lithostratigraphic units at the eastern–northeastern border of salar Centenario: (1) a bimodal volcanosedimentary sequence affected by low- to medium-grade metamorphism, comprising metasediments associated with basic and felsic metavolcanic rocks, dated 485 ± 5 Ma, and (2) a plutonic unit composed of syenogranites to quartz-rich leucogranites with U–Pb zircon ages between 462 ± 7 and 475 ± 5 Ma. Felsic metavolcanic and plutonic rocks are peraluminous and show similar geochemical differentiation trends. They also have similar Sm–Nd isotopic compositions (T_DM model ages of 1.54–1.78 Ga; ε_Nd(T) values ranging from −3.2 to −7.5) that suggest a common origin and derivation of the original magmas from older (Meso-Paleoproterozoic?) continental crust. Mafic rocks show ε_Nd(T) ranging from +2.3 to +2.5, indicating a depleted mantle source. The data presented here, combined with those in the literature, suggest Ordovician magmatism mainly recycles preexisting crust with minor additions of juvenile mantle-derived material.     

Assessing shallow landslide hazards using the TRIGRS and SHALSTAB models,Serra do Mar,Brazil

The hillslopes of the Serra do Mar, a system of escarpments and mountains that extend more than 1500 km along the southern and southeastern Brazilian coast, are regularly affected by heavy rainfall that generates widespread mass movements, causing large numbers of casualties and economic losses. This paper evaluates the efficiency of susceptibility mapping for shallow translational landslides in one basin in the Serra do Mar, using the physically based landslide susceptibility models SHALSTAB and TRIGRS. Two groups of scenarios were simulated using different geotechnical and hydrological soil parameters, and for each group of scenarios (A and B), three subgroups were created using soil thickness values of 1, 2, and 3 m. Simulation results were compared to the locations of 356 landslide scars from the 1985 event. The susceptibility maps for scenarios A1, A2, and A3 were similar between the models regarding the spatial distribution of susceptibility classes. Changes in soil cohesion and specific weight parameters caused changes in the area of predicted instability in the B scenarios. Both models were effective in predicting areas susceptible to shallow landslides through comparison of areas predicted to be unstable and locations of mapped landslides. Such models can be used to reduce costs or to define potentially unstable areas in regions like the Serra do Mar where field data are costly and difficult to obtain.     

Carbon biogeochemistry of the Betsiboka estuary (north-western Madagascar)

Madagascar’s largest estuary (Betsiboka) was sampled along the salinity gradient during the dry season to document the distribution and sources of particulate and dissolved organic carbon (POC, DOC) as well as dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC). The Betsiboka was characterized by a relatively high suspended matter load, and in line with this, low DOC/POC ratios (0.4–2.5). The partial pressure of CO₂ (pCO₂) was generally above atmospheric equilibrium (270–1530 ppm), but relatively low in comparison to other tropical and subtropical estuaries, resulting in low average CO₂ emission to the atmosphere (9.1 ± 14.2 mmol m⁻² d⁻¹). Despite the fact that C4 vegetation is reported to cover >80% of the catchment area, stable isotope data on DOC and POC suggest that C4 derived material comprises only 30% of both pools in the freshwater zone, increasing to 60–70% and 50–60%, respectively, in the oligohaline zone due to additional lateral inputs. Sediments from intertidal mangroves in the estuary showed low organic carbon concentrations (<1%) and δ¹³C values (average −19.8‰) consistent with important inputs of riverine imported C4 material. This contribution was reflected in δ¹³C signatures of bacterial phospholipid derived fatty acids (i + a15:0), suggesting the potential importance of terrestrial organic matter sources for mineralization and secondary production in coastal ecosystems.     

Site Effects Study in the Serravalle Village (NE Italy) by Means of Spectral Ratios Analyses Relatively to Multiple Reference Sites

The area of Serravalle, sited in the northern part of the town of Vittorio Veneto (TV), NE Italy, has been the target of a seismic microzonation campaign. 10 seismic stations have been deployed for a 7 months period to record in continuous mode. Three stations were installed on bedrock outcrops and seven on sedimentary sites with variable cover thickness. Spectral analyses have been performed on the collected data-set using the Generalized Inversion Technique (GIT, e.g. Andrews, 1986). In particular, spectral ratios have been calculated for each station relatively to the average of the three reference, bedrock sites. The spectral ratios provide quantitative estimates of the seismic motion amplifications which occur in each of the monitored sites. Two sites show high values of amplification, 5 times larger than signal amplitude at the reference sites, in correspondence of well discernible peak frequencies of 5 Hz. Results for the other stations show smaller amounts of site amplification spreading over a broad range of frequencies. Sites where the highest amplifications were recorded all lie on the left bank of the Meschio River and in areas farther away from its outlet into the plain correlating with the presence of thick layers of Quaternary deposits.     

Seasonal Variability of Carbon Dioxide in the Rivers and Lagoons of Ivory Coast (West Africa)

We report partial pressure of CO₂ (pCO₂) and ancillary data in three rivers (Bia, Tanoé, and Comoé) and five lagoons (Tendo, Aby, Ebrié, Potou, and Grand-Lahou) in Ivory Coast (West Africa), during four cruises covering the main climatic seasons. The three rivers were oversaturated in CO₂ with respect to atmospheric equilibrium, and the seasonal variability of pCO₂ was due to dilution during the flooding period. Surface waters of the Potou, Ebrié, and Grand-Lahou lagoons were oversaturated in CO₂ during all seasons. These lagoons behaved similarly to the oligohaline regions of macrotidal estuaries that are CO₂ sources to the atmosphere due to net ecosystem heterotrophy and inputs of riverine CO₂ rich waters. The Aby and Tendo lagoons were undersaturated in CO₂ with respect to the atmosphere because of their permanent haline stratification (unlike the other lagoons) that seemed to lead to higher phytoplankton production and export of organic carbon below the pycnocline.