Uncertainty quantification of overpressure buildup through inverse modeling of compaction processes in sedimentary basins

This study illustrates a procedure conducive to a preliminary risk analysis of overpressure development in sedimentary basins characterized by alternating depositional events of sandstone and shale layers. The approach rests on two key elements: (1) forward modeling of fluid flow and compaction, and (2) application of a model-complexity reduction technique based on a generalized polynomial chaos expansion (gPCE). The forward model considers a one-dimensional vertical compaction processes. The gPCE model is then used in an inverse modeling context to obtain efficient model parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification. The methodology is applied to two field settings considered in previous literature works, i.e. the Venture Field (Scotian Shelf, Canada) and the Navarin Basin (Bering Sea, Alaska, USA), relying on available porosity and pressure information for model calibration. It is found that the best result is obtained when porosity and pressure data are considered jointly in the model calibration procedure. Uncertainty propagation from unknown input parameters to model outputs, such as pore pressure vertical distribution, is investigated and quantified. This modeling strategy enables one to quantify the relative importance of key phenomena governing the feedback between sediment compaction and fluid flow processes and driving the buildup of fluid overpressure in stratified sedimentary basins characterized by the presence of low-permeability layers. The results here illustrated (1) allow for diagnosis of the critical role played by the parameters of quantitative formulations linking porosity and permeability in compacted shales and (2) provide an explicit and detailed quantification of the effects of their uncertainty in field settings.     

The ionosphere: effects,GPS modeling and the benefits for space geodetic techniques

The main goal of this paper is to provide a summary of our current knowledge of the ionosphere as it relates to space geodetic techniques, especially the most informative technology, global navigation satellite systems (GNSS), specifically the fully deployed and operational global positioning system (GPS). As such, the main relevant modeling points are discussed, and the corresponding results of ionospheric monitoring are related, which were mostly computed using GPS data and based on the direct experience of the authors. We address various phenomena such as horizontal and vertical ionospheric morphology in quiet conditions, traveling ionospheric disturbances, solar flares, ionospheric storms and scintillation. Finally, we also tackle the question of how improved knowledge of ionospheric conditions, especially in terms of an accurate understanding of the distribution of free electrons, can improve space geodetic techniques at different levels, such as higher-order ionospheric effects, precise GNSS navigation, single-antenna GNSS orientation and real-time GNSS meteorology.     

An Origin for the Linear Magnetic Anomalies on Mars through Accretion of Terranes: Implications for Dynamo Timing

The proposed existence of magnetic lineations in the Terra Cimmeria and Terra Sirenum regions of Mars was initially explained by Earth-like sea-floor spreading. Here we argue instead that these lineations could have been formed at a convergent plate margin through collision and accretion of terranes. A similar process produced banded magnetic anomalies, similar in geometry and even in size to those in Earth's North American Cordillera. Because only sparse and generally weak anomalies have been detected in the martian northern lowlands, which could constitute an analog to the terrestrial oceanic crust, it is possible that the magnetic field stopped its activity while crustal recycling was still active in Mars.     

Sub-Gaussian model of processes with heavy-tailed distributions applied to air permeabilities of fractured tuff

Earth and environmental variables are commonly taken to have multivariate Gaussian or heavy-tailed distributions in space and/or time. This is based on the observation that univariate frequency distributions of corresponding samples appear to be Gaussian or heavy-tailed. Of particular interest to us is the well-documented but heretofore little noticed and unexplained phenomenon that whereas the frequency distribution of log permeability data often seems to be Gaussian, that of corresponding increments tends to exhibit heavy tails. The tails decay as powers of ? $ \alpha $ where 1 <  $ \alpha $  < 2 is either constant or grows monotonically toward an asymptote with increasing separation distance or lag. We illustrate the latter phenomenon on 1-m scale log air permeabilities from pneumatic tests in 6 vertical and inclined boreholes completed in unsaturated fractured tuff near Superior, Arizona. We then show theoretically and demonstrate numerically, on synthetically generated signals, that whereas the case of constant $ \alpha $ is consistent with a collection of samples from truncated sub-Gaussian fractional Lévy noise, a random field (or process) subordinated to truncated fractional Gaussian noise, the case of variable $ \alpha $ is consistent with a collection of samples from truncated sub-Gaussian fractional Lévy motion (tfLm), a random field subordinated to truncated fractional Brownian motion. Whereas the first type of signal is relatively regular and characterized by Lévy index $ \alpha $ , the second is highly irregular (punctuated by spurious spikes) and characterized by the asymptote of $ \alpha $ values associated with its increments. We describe a procedure to estimate the parameters of univariate distributions characterizing such signals and apply it to our log air permeability data. The latter are found to be consistent with a collection of samples from tfLm with $ \alpha $ slightly smaller than 2, which is easily confused with a Gaussian field (characterized by constant $ \alpha $  = 2). The irregular (spiky) nature of this signal is typical of observed fractured rock properties. We propose that distributions of earth and environmental variable be inferred jointly from measured values and their increments in a way that insures consistency between these two sets of data.     

SLA–chlorophyll-a variability and covariability in the Algero-Provençal Basin (1997–2007) through combined use of EOF and wavelet analysis of satellite data

Data reduction and signal decomposition techniques have been applied to a large bio-physical remotely sensed dataset covering the decade 1997–2007. The aim was the estimation of the spatial (basin and sub-basin scales) and temporal (seasonal and interannual) variability of sea level anomalies and chlorophyll-a concentration in the Algero-Provençal Basin, as well as the study of their covariability. Empirical orthogonal functions, wavelet analysis, singular value decomposition and correlation maps have been successfully used to individuate the patterns of (co)variability of the investigated fields. The seasonal variability of the phytoplanktonic biomass is divided in two distinct modes, timewise and spacewise separated. Positive interannual events are related to anomalies in 1999 and 2005, while the main (negative) anomaly is that of summer 2003, associated to the European 2003 heatwave. The analysis of the sea level anomalies shows a minimum in the formation of anticyclonic Algerian eddies during that period. The largest anticorrelation between sea level anomalies and phytoplanktonic biomass is found in the central zone of the basin, suggesting a clear biological response to the shoaling/deepening of the isopycnae and so to the nutrient injection into the euphotic layer. The analysis suggests that the driver of the variability of the nutricline depth in this central area is the displacement (seasonal) of the North Balearic Front and the formation/action of the frontal eddies.     

Carbon biogeochemistry of the Betsiboka estuary (north-western Madagascar)

Madagascar’s largest estuary (Betsiboka) was sampled along the salinity gradient during the dry season to document the distribution and sources of particulate and dissolved organic carbon (POC, DOC) as well as dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC). The Betsiboka was characterized by a relatively high suspended matter load, and in line with this, low DOC/POC ratios (0.4–2.5). The partial pressure of CO₂ (pCO₂) was generally above atmospheric equilibrium (270–1530 ppm), but relatively low in comparison to other tropical and subtropical estuaries, resulting in low average CO₂ emission to the atmosphere (9.1 ± 14.2 mmol m⁻² d⁻¹). Despite the fact that C4 vegetation is reported to cover >80% of the catchment area, stable isotope data on DOC and POC suggest that C4 derived material comprises only 30% of both pools in the freshwater zone, increasing to 60–70% and 50–60%, respectively, in the oligohaline zone due to additional lateral inputs. Sediments from intertidal mangroves in the estuary showed low organic carbon concentrations (<1%) and δ¹³C values (average −19.8‰) consistent with important inputs of riverine imported C4 material. This contribution was reflected in δ¹³C signatures of bacterial phospholipid derived fatty acids (i + a15:0), suggesting the potential importance of terrestrial organic matter sources for mineralization and secondary production in coastal ecosystems.     

On the Derivation of Input Parameters for Urban Canopy Models from Urban Morphological Datasets

Two techniques are analysed to derive mean street width and mean building width from morphological data of real cities: one based on a two-dimensional simplified morphology, and the other based on a three-dimensional regular simplified morphology. For each simplified morphology (two-dimensional and three-dimensional), the sky-view factors (street-to-sky) are computed and compared with the sky-view factors derived from the real morphology for selected districts of three European and two North American cities. The two-dimensional simplified morphology reproduces the real sky-view factors better than the three-dimensional morphology. Since many urban canopy parameterizations represent the city using simplified morphologies, this can be useful information for the derivation of input parameters for urban canopy parameterizations from real morphological data.     

The Auger Observatory in Argentina

The Auger Project studies the highest energies known in nature with an emphasis on energies ≥5 × 10¹⁹ eV, which are cosmic rays coming from the outer space reaching the Earth's surface with a very low flux. The questions to be elucidated are what are the origin, energy, production mechanism, and chemical composition of these cosmic rays. Auger aims at building two observatories in both the hemispheres and in 2000 the construction of the austral observatory started. Auger's two distinctive features are its exceptional size and its hybrid nature. It spans over an area of 3000 km² and is constituted by 24 fluorescence detector telescopes and 1600 surface detectors. As such, it will provide a large number of events with less systematic detection uncertainties. The construction of the Southern Observatory in Argentina is quite advanced and the buildings at the Central Station in Malargüe city are already operational. So are the telescope buildings at Cerros Los Leones and Coihueco (two prototype telescopes were operational at Los Leones, which have now been dismantled), 32 surface detectors, and the telecommunication and data acquisition systems. About 20-hybrid events/months were detected and currently two events/hours are registered with the surface detector array. The detection of hybrid events is the most important issue since it shows that the equipment operates within the design parameters.     

Storm surge frequency reduction in Venice under climate change

Increased tidal levels and storm surges related to climate change are projected to result in extremely adverse effects on coastal regions. Predictions of such extreme and small-scale events, however, are exceedingly challenging, even for relatively short time horizons. Here we use data from observations, ERA-40 re-analysis, climate scenario simulations, and a simple feature model to find that the frequency of extreme storm surge events affecting Venice is projected to decrease by about 30% by the end of the twenty-first century. In addition, through a trend assessment based on tidal observations we found a reduction in extreme tidal levels. Extrapolating the current +17 cm/century sea level trend, our results suggest that the frequency of extreme tides in Venice might largely remain unaltered under the projected twenty-first century climate simulations.