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101.
Assessing Winter Wheat Responses to Climate Change Scenarios: A Simulation Study in the U.S. Great Plains 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
Hard red winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) is a major crop in the Great Plains region of the U.S. The goal of this assessment effort was to investigate the influence of two contrasting global climate change projections (U.K. Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research and Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis) on the yield and percent kernel nitrogen content of winter wheat at three locations in Nebraska. These three locations represent sub-humid and semi arid areas and the transition between these areas and are also representative of major portions of the winter wheat growing areas of the central Great Plains. Climate scenarios based on each of the projections for each location were developed using the LARS-WG weather generator along with data from automated weather stations. CERES-Wheat was used to simulate the responses for two contrasting cultivars of wheat using two sowing dates. The first sowing date represented current sowing dates appropriate for each location. The second sowing date was later and represents the approximate date when the mean air temperature from the climate scenarios is the same as the mean air temperature from the actual climate data at the current sowing dates. The yield and percent kernel nitrogen content using the two climate scenarios generally decrease going from the sub-humid eastern to the semi arid western parts of Nebraska. Results from these simulations indicate that yield and percent kernel nitrogen content using the two climate scenarios could not both be maintained at levels currently simulated. Protein content (directly related to kernel nitrogen content) and end-use quality are the primary determinants for the use of hard red winter wheat in baked goods. Nitrogen management and new cultivars, which can enhance the uptake and translocation of nitrogen, will be proactive steps to meet the challenges of global climate change as represented by these climate scenarios. 相似文献
102.
Calcium and magnesium isotope systematics in rivers draining the Himalaya-Tibetan-Plateau region: Lithological or fractionation control? 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
In rivers draining the Himalaya-Tibetan-Plateau region, the 26Mg/24Mg ratio has a range of 2‰ and the 44Ca/42Ca ratio has a range of 0.6‰. The average δ26Mg values of tributaries from each of the main lithotectonic units (Tethyan Sedimentary Series (TSS), High Himalayan Crystalline Series (HHCS) and Lesser Himalayan Series (LHS)) are within 2 standard deviation analytical uncertainty (0.14‰). The consistency of average riverine δ26Mg values is in contrast to the main rock types (limestone, dolostone and silicate) which range in their average δ26Mg values by more than 2‰. Tributaries draining the dolostones of the LHS differ in their values compared to tributaries from the TSS and HHCS. The chemistry of these river waters is strongly influenced by dolostone (solute Mg/Ca close to unity) and both δ26Mg (−1.31‰) and (0.64‰) values are within analytical uncertainty of the LHS dolostone. These are the most elevated values in rivers and rock reported so far demonstrating that both riverine and bedrock values may show greater variability than previously thought.Although rivers draining TSS limestone have the lowest values at −1.41 and 0.42‰, respectively, both are offset to higher values compared to bedrock TSS limestone. The average δ26Mg value of rivers draining mainly silicate rock of the HHCS is −1.25‰, lower by 0.63‰ than the average silicate rock. These differences are consistent with a fractionation of δ26Mg values during silicate weathering. Given that the proportion of Mg exported from the Himalaya as solute Mg is small, the difference in 26Mg/24Mg ratios between silicate rock and solute Mg reflects the 26Mg/24Mg isotopic fractionation factor () between silicate and dissolved Mg during incongruent silicate weathering. The value of of 0.99937 implies that in the TSS, solute Mg is primarily derived from silicate weathering, whereas the source of Ca is overwhelmingly derived from carbonate weathering. The average value in HHCS rivers is within uncertainty of silicate rock at 0.39‰. The widespread hot springs of the High Himalaya have an average δ26Mg value of −0.46‰ and an average value of 0.5‰, distinct from riverine values for δ26Mg but similar to riverine values. Although rivers draining each major rock type have and δ26Mg values in part inherited from bedrock, there is no correlation with proxies for carbonate or silicate lithology such as Na/Ca ratios, suggesting that Ca and Mg are in part recycled. However, in spite of the vast contrast in vegetation density between the arid Tibetan Plateau and the tropical Lesser Himalaya, the isotopic fractionation factor for Ca and Mg between solute and rocks are not systematically different suggesting that vegetation may only recycle a small amount of Ca and Mg in these catchments.The discrepancy between solute and solid Ca and Mg isotope ratios in these rivers from diverse weathering environments highlight our lack of understanding concerning the origin and subsequent path of Ca and Mg, bound as minerals in rock, and released as cations in rivers. The fractionation of Ca and Mg isotope ratios may prove useful for tracing mechanisms of chemical alteration. Ca isotope ratios of solute riverine Ca show a greater variability than previously acknowledged. The variability of Ca isotope ratios in modern rivers will need to be better quantified and accounted for in future models of global Ca cycling, if past variations in oceanic Ca isotope ratios are to be of use in constraining the past carbon cycle. 相似文献
103.
Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for conditioning a permeability field to pressure data 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
Generating one realization of a random permeability field that is consistent with observed pressure data and a known variogram
model is not a difficult problem. If, however, one wants to investigate the uncertainty of reservior behavior, one must generate
a large number of realizations and ensure that the distribution of realizations properly reflects the uncertainty in reservoir
properties. The most widely used method for conditioning permeability fields to production data has been the method of simulated
annealing, in which practitioners attempt to minimize the difference between the ’ ’true and simulated production data, and
“true” and simulated variograms. Unfortunately, the meaning of the resulting realization is not clear and the method can be
extremely slow. In this paper, we present an alternative approach to generating realizations that are conditional to pressure
data, focusing on the distribution of realizations and on the efficiency of the method. Under certain conditions that can
be verified easily, the Markov chain Monte Carlo method is known to produce states whose frequencies of appearance correspond
to a given probability distribution, so we use this method to generate the realizations. To make the method more efficient,
we perturb the states in such a way that the variogram is satisfied automatically and the pressure data are approximately
matched at every step. These perturbations make use of sensitivity coefficients calculated from the reservoir simulator. 相似文献
104.
Albert J. Parker 《The Professional geographer》1992,44(2):147-160
Variation in seedling/sapling densities and stand diameter forms for six coniferous tree species is related to stand structural development and to elevation and topography in Lassen Volcanic National Park, California. Understory density patterns reflect differences in species tolerance; densities decrease with stand development for shade intolerant pines, but increase for shade tolerant firs and mountain hemlock. Pine species exhibit reverse-J diamter structures on recently disturbed sites, and decreaser and random forms elsewhere. More tolerant fir species show topographically mediated patterns of diameter structure, with reverse-J form common on northerly exposures and upland sites, but with decreaser and random forms on more xeric slopes. Interaction among species tolerance, environmental setting, and disturbance history yields a complex mosaic of stand diameter structures in the Lassen landscape. 相似文献
105.
The Jharia coalfield is the most important and active minig region; it experiences groundwater inflow and affects groundwater levels in overlying aquifers, and it provides the basis for a conceptual model of the hydrogeological impacts of coal mining. The several sandstone aquifers of the overburden are separated by aquitards that limit vertical hydraulic connection, but the inflow responds to seasonal events and seems to be linked to shallow groundwater behavior. The mine drainage behavior suggests a hydraulic connection between the mine and the shallower groundwater system. The greatest declines are directly above the panels, with an immediate response to coal mining. The inflow is localized by natural and induced fracture zones and is mostly into recent workings. The groundwater behavior is controlled by hydraulic property changes caused by mine-induced fracturing. The hydrological and chemical qualities of the shallow groundwater regime in 13 mining collieries in Mukunda Block have been investigated. Water samples collected from 30 shallow monitoring dug wells were chosen for the study. Rainfall, runoff, and infiltration rates have been calculated in the area. The water-quality plottings were used to interpret the distribution of individual chemical parameters and in predicting the water quality. The underground mine water has been classified as: (1) unconfined groundwater in the calcareous siltstone and sandstone—its composition is Na, Ca, SO4 and Na-MgHCO3 with moderate total dissolved solids (TDS) 200–1480 ppm; (2) the deep groundwater originating from the coal seams and associated sediments in the near-surface environments—this is a Na-HCO3 water with higher TDS; and (3) spoil dump waters are essentially Na-HCO3 with high TDS. This article presents some hydrologic results and conclusions relating to the hydrogeological and environmental impacts of the coal mining in the Jharia coalfield. 相似文献
106.
107.
Frances P. Wilkerson Adria M. Lassiter Richard C. Dugdale Albert Marchi Victoria E. Hogue 《Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography》2006,53(25-26):3023
In the coastal waters off northern California, seasonal wind-driven upwelling supplies abundant nutrients to be processed by phytoplankton productivity. As part of the Coastal Ocean Processes: Wind Events and Shelf Transport (CoOP WEST) study, nutrients, CO2, size-fractionated chlorophyll, and phytoplankton community structure were measured in the upwelling region off Bodega Bay, CA, during May–June 2000, 2001 and 2002. The ability of this ecosystem to assimilate nitrate (NO3) and silicic acid/silicate (Si(OH)4) and accumulate particulate material (i.e. phytoplankton) was realized in all 3 years, following short events of upwelling-favorable winds, followed by periods of relaxed winds. This was observed as phytoplankton blooms, dominated by chlorophyll in cells greater than 5 μm in diameter, that reduced the ambient nutrients to zero. These communities were located over the near-shore shelf (<100 m depth) and were dominated by diatoms. An optimal window of 3–7 days of relaxed winds, following an upwelling pulse, was required for chlorophyll accumulation. The large-celled phytoplankton that result are likely important players in coastal new production and carbon cycling. 相似文献
108.
In this study, we propose to identify morphological and hydraulic characteristics related to overbank flows in the water level time‐series available at many gauged stations. The results obtained at 13 river stations (the catchment sizes vary from 10 to 1700 km2 with contrasted geology, land use and rainfalls regime) show that overflow mechanisms at the river‐reach scale can be systematically identified in the water level frequency distribution estimated with the peaks‐over‐threshold (POT) method. A first level (Lts1) was in the range of the incipient flooding onto the floodplain. Even if the definition of this level is variable in terms of flooded area at the reach scale, this method can be useful in providing a first estimation of the bankfull level for many gauged stations, without complex and costly field surveys. A second level (Lts2) was systematically detected on average 38 cm above the topographic flat floodplain elevation. The Lts2 inflection in the water‐level frequency distribution is assumed to reflect a composite effect of catchment hydrology and local hydraulics and channel geometry, without possibility to make a clear distinction between both processes at the moment. The local or reach scale effect would probably play an essential role in the frequency distribution as flood attenuation at catchment scale may explain the inflection Lts2 at only three sites. In light of the knowledge acquired in laboratory flumes with compound channels, most of the time Lts2 level would correspond to the level of resumption of flow both in the main channel and the floodplain. Once this method is validated in various physiographic contexts, it should apply to many hydrometric stations for both synchronic (e.g. regional analysis) and diachronic analysis (e.g. evolution over time of the bankfull discharge) to evaluate anthropic impacts on river morphology. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
109.
110.
Irina V. Kurina Elena E. Veretennikova Anna A. Il’ina Marina L. Egorova Lyudmila V. Salisch Vladimir N. Dolgin Albert V. Udaloi Evgeniya A. Golovatskaya Egor A. Dyukarev Sergei V. Smirnov 《Boreas: An International Journal of Quaternary Research》2023,52(2):223-239
Palaeoenvironmental reconstructions from peat are strongly focused on ombrotrophic mires, but this study demonstrates that eutrophic mires can also be used. A multi-proxy approach was applied to a eutrophic mire on a floodplain terrace in the southern taiga of West Siberia. The results of the reconstruction were considered in the wide geographic context of the surrounding regions, including Siberia and Central Asia. Different palaeoecological proxies (analysis of plant macrofossils, testate amoebae, oribatid mites, molluscs, peat humification, ash content and spectral characteristics of humic acids) were used in this study. The results of different proxies showed a high level of consistency among themselves, which allowed for a robust interpretation of Holocene mire development. Throughout the ~7800 years history of the mire, there was a high level of surface wetness. The presence of mineral matter in the peat between 7800 and 5100 cal. a BP indicates regular flooding caused by the intensive fluvial activity, apparently resulting from increased precipitation. This was followed by a trend towards a gradual decrease in surface wetness from conditions of high surface moisture (stagnant water) between 5100 and 3000 cal. a BP to present day conditions of moderate surface moisture with a water table slightly below the mire surface. This pattern is consistent with the well-documented long-term trend from palaeoecological records throughout the taiga and arctic zones in West Siberia and central arid Asia. Our data further support the idea that the westerlies were the dominant driver of climate for the southern taiga of West Siberia during the Middle to Late Holocene. 相似文献