Recent Rapid Regional Climate Warming on the Antarctic Peninsula

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) confirmed that mean global warming was 0.6 ± 0.2 °C during the 20th century and cited anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gases as the likely cause of temperature rise in the last 50 years. But this mean value conceals the substantial complexity of observed climate change, which is seasonally- and diurnally-biased, decadally-variable and geographically patchy. In particular, over the last 50 years three high-latitude areas have undergone recent rapid regional (RRR) warming, which was substantially more rapid than the global mean. However, each RRR warming occupies a different climatic regime and may have an entirely different underlying cause. We discuss the significance of RRR warming in one area, the Antarctic Peninsula. Here warming was much more rapid than in the rest of Antarctica where it was not significantly different to the global mean. We highlight climate proxies that appear to show that RRR warming on the Antarctic Peninsula is unprecedented over the last two millennia, and so unlikely to be a natural mode of variability. So while the station records do not indicate a ubiquitous polar amplification of global warming, the RRR warming on the Antarctic Peninsula might be a regional amplification of such warming. This, however, remains unproven since we cannot yet be sure what mechanism leads to such an amplification. We discuss several possible candidate mechanisms: changing oceanographic or changing atmospheric circulation, or a regional air-sea-ice feedback amplifying greenhouse warming. We can show that atmospheric warming and reduction in sea-ice duration coincide in a small area on the west of the Antarctic Peninsula, but here we cannot yet distinguish cause and effect. Thus for the present we cannot determine which process is the probable cause of RRR warming on the Antarctic Peninsula and until the mechanism initiating and sustaining the RRR warming is understood, and is convincingly reproduced in climate models, we lack a sound basis for predicting climate change in this region over the coming century.     

Yucatán karst features and the size of Chicxulub crater

The buried Chicxulub impact structure is marked by a dramatic ring of sinkholes (called cenotes if containing water), and adjacent less prominent partial rings, which have been shown to coincide with maxima in horizontal gravity gradients and a topographic depression. These observations, along with the discreteness and spacing of the features, suggest a formation mechanism involving faulting in the outer slump zone of the crater, which would thus have a diameter of approximately 180 km.
An opposing view, based primarily on the interpretation of gravity data, is that (he crater is much larger than the cenote ring implies. Given the association of the known cenote ring with faults, we here examine northern Yucatan for similar rings in gravity, surface features and elevation, which we might expect to be associated with outer concentric faults in the case of a larger, possibly multiring, structure.
No such outer rings have been found, although definite patterns are seen in the distribution of karst features outside the crater rim. We explain these patterns as resulting mainly from deformation related to the block fault zone that parallels tbe shelf edge of eastern Yucatan.     

An evaluation of models of apatite compositional variability using apatite from the Middle Banded series of the Stillwater Complex,Montana

 Apatite is a relatively common accessory mineral in the olivine-bearing zones (OB-III and OB-IV) of the Middle Banded series of the Stillwater complex, occurring interstitial to cumulus grains, as monomineralic inclusions in cumulus grains, and in polymineralic clusters which may or may not be included in the cumulus grains. Eighty-nine of 185 samples examined were found to contain some apatite. The F-Cl-OH content of the apatite show distinct stratigraphic variations. XClAp (mole fraction Cl in apatite) of interstitial apatite increases upsection in both OB-III and OB-IV with average values ranging from 0.15 to 0.85 in OB-III and from 0.03 to 0.60 in OB-IV. XFAp varies inversely with XClApwith average values ranging from 0.00 to 0.70, while XOHAp remains relatively constant near 0.40 or decreases slightly with height. These variations are remarkable given that no appreciable stratigraphic variations in either the major or trace element compositions of any of the cumulus minerals are found in the 800 m of section that comprise OB-III and OB-IV. Within-sample variation of XClAp for samples containing Cl-rich apatite is substantially larger (up to 0.65 XClAp) than for samples with more F-rich apatite (XClAp varies by approximately 0.15). Although interstitial apatite is found throughout OB-III and OB-IV, apatite occurring as monomineralic inclusion in cumulus grains or in polymineralic clusters is almost exclusively found in samples with Cl-rich apatite. The data are best explained by a model involving the degassing of a Cl-rich volatile phase from the crystallizing interstitial liquid. The up-section migration of this fluid resulted in the crystallization of F-rich apatite in the lower portion and progressive Cl-enrichment in the apatite with height. The presence of hornblende-bearing dikes, veins and pegmatoids at the level of maximum Cl-enrichment is consistent with a fluid migration model. Received: 5 October 1995 / Accepted: 19 March 1996     

Large-Eddy Simulation of Turbulent Flow Over a Rough Surface

A family of wall models is proposed that exhibits moresatisfactory performance than previousmodels for the large-eddy simulation (LES) of the turbulentboundary layer over a rough surface.The time and horizontally averaged statistics such asmean vertical profiles of windvelocity, Reynolds stress, turbulent intensities, turbulentkinetic energy and alsospectra are compared with wind-tunnel experimental data.The purpose of the present study is to obtain simulatedturbulent flows that are comparable with wind-tunnelmeasurements for use as the wind environment for thenumerical prediction by LES of source dispersion in theneutral atmospheric boundary layer.     

Mitigating the Effects of Climate Change on the Water Resources of the Columbia River Basin

The potential effects of climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the Columbia River Basin (CRB) were evaluated using simulations from the U.S. Department of Energy and National Center for Atmospheric Research Parallel Climate Model (DOE/NCAR PCM). This study focuses on three climate projections for the 21st century based on a `business as usual' (BAU) global emissions scenario, evaluated with respect to a control climate scenario based on static 1995 emissions. Time-varying monthly PCM temperature and precipitation changes were statistically downscaled and temporally disaggregated to produce daily forcings that drove a macro-scale hydrologic simulation model of the Columbia River basin at 1/4-degree spatial resolution. For comparison with the direct statistical downscaling approach, a dynamical downscaling approach using a regional climate model (RCM) was also used to derive hydrologic model forcings for 20-year subsets from the PCM control climate (1995–2015) scenario and from the three BAU climate(2040–2060) projections. The statistically downscaled PCM scenario results were assessed for three analysis periods (denoted Periods 1–3: 2010–2039,2040–2069, 2070–2098) in which changes in annual average temperature were +0.5,+1.3 and +2.1 °C, respectively, while critical winter season precipitation changes were –3, +5 and +1 percent. For RCM, the predicted temperature change for the 2040–2060 period was +1.2 °C and the average winter precipitation change was –3 percent, relative to the RCM controlclimate. Due to the modest changes in winter precipitation, temperature changes dominated the simulated hydrologic effects by reducing winter snow accumulation, thus shifting summer streamflow to the winter. The hydrologic changes caused increased competition for reservoir storage between firm hydropower and instream flow targets developed pursuant to the Endangered Species Act listing of Columbia River salmonids. We examined several alternative reservoir operating policies designed to mitigate reservoir system performance losses. In general, the combination of earlier reservoir refill with greater storage allocations for instream flow targets mitigated some of the negative impacts to flow, but only with significant losses in firm hydropower production (ranging from –9 percent in Period1 to –35 percent for RCM). Simulated hydropower revenue changes were lessthan 5 percent for all scenarios, however, primarily due to small changes inannual runoff.     

Steady, annual, and monthly recharge implied by deep unconfined aquifer flow

We consider the response of a deep unconfined horizontal aquifer to steady, annual, and monthly recharge. A groundwater divide and a zero head reservoir constrain the aquifer, so that sinusoidal monthly and aperiodic annual recharge fluctuations create transient specific discharge near the reservoir and an unsteady water table elevation inland. One existing and two new long-term data sets from the Plymouth-Carver Aquifer in southeastern Massachusetts calibrate and confirm hydraulic properties in a set of analytical models. [Geohydrology and simulated groundwater flow, 1992] data and a new power law for tritiugenic helium to tritium ratios calibrate the steady recharge that drives the classical parabolic model of steady hydraulics [Applied Hydrogeology, 2001]. Observed water table and gradient fluctuations calibrate the transient recharge models. In the latter regard, monitoring wells within 1 km of Buttermilk Bay exhibit appreciable specific discharge and reduced water table fluctuations. We apply [Trans Am Geophys Union 32(1951)238] periodic model to the monthly hydraulics and a recharge convolution integral [J Hydrol 126(1991)315] to annual flow. An infiltration fraction of 0.79 and a consumptive use coefficient of 1.08×10⁻⁸ m/s °C relate recharge to precipitation and daylight weighted temperature across all three time scales. Errors associated with this recharge relation decrease with increasing time scale.     

Redshift surveys

Recent results and current plans for redshift surveys were the subject of an RAS discussion meeting on 10 October 2003, organized by Ofer Lahav and Jon Loveday. Sarah Bridle and Alan Heavens report.     

Oxygen isotope heterogeneity in chondrules from the Mokoia CV3 carbonaceous chondrite

We report a study of the oxygen isotope ratios of chondrules and their constituent mineral grains from the Mokoia, oxidized CV3 chondrite. Bulk oxygen isotope ratios of 23 individual chondrules were determined by laser ablation fluorination, and oxygen isotope ratios of individual grains, mostly olivine, were obtained in situ on polished mounts using secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS). Our results can be compared with data obtained previously for the oxidized CV3 chondrite, Allende. Bulk oxygen isotope ratios of Mokoia chondrules form an array on an oxygen three-isotope plot that is subparallel to, and slightly displaced from, the CCAM (carbonaceous chondrite anhydrous minerals) line. The best-fit line for all CV3 chondrite chondrules has a slope of 0.99, and is displaced significantly (by δ¹⁷O ∼ −2.5‰) from the Young and Russell slope-one line for unaltered calcium-aluminum-rich inclusion (CAI) minerals. Oxygen isotope ratios of many bulk CAIs also lie on the CV-chondrule line, which is the most relevant oxygen isotope array for most CV chondrite components. Bulk oxygen isotope ratios of most chondrules in Mokoia have δ¹⁸O values around 0‰, and olivine grains in these chondrules have similar oxygen isotope ratios to their bulk values. In general, it appears that chondrule mesostases have higher δ¹⁸O values than olivines in the same chondrules. Our bulk chondrule data spread to lower δ¹⁸O values than any ferromagnesian chondrules that have been measured previously. Two chondrules with the lowest bulk δ¹⁸O values (−7.5‰ and −11.7‰) contain olivine grains that display an extremely wide range of oxygen isotope ratios, down to δ¹⁷O, δ¹⁸O around -50‰ in one chondrule. In these chondrules, there are no apparent relict grains, and essentially no relationships between olivine compositions, which are homogeneous, and oxygen isotopic compositions of individual grains. Heterogeneity of oxygen isotope ratios within these chondrules may be the result of incorporation of relict grains from objects such as amoeboid olivine aggregates, followed by solid-state chemical diffusion without concomitant oxygen equilibration. Alternatively, oxygen isotope exchange between an ¹⁶O-rich precursor and an ¹⁶O-poor gas may have taken place during chondrule formation, and these chondrules may represent partially equilibrated systems in which isotopic heterogeneities became frozen into the crystallizing olivine grains. If this is the case, we can infer that the earliest nebular solids from which chondrules formed had δ¹⁷O and δ¹⁸O values around -50‰, similar to those observed in refractory inclusions.