Northern Hemisphere Temperature Variability for the Past Three Centuries: Tree-Ring and Model Estimates

We compare Northern Hemisphere energy-balance-model temperature calculations to an annual temperature reconstruction based on 20 tree-ring width records from latitudinal and elevational treeline sites in northern North America, Scandinavia, Siberia and Mongolia for the past three centuries. The energy-balance model uses three primary forcings; solar, volcanic, and anthropogenic trace gas and aerosol variations. Several different parameterizations of the forcings are compared. The best agreement (r = 0.8) is found when the annual reconstruction is compared to a version of the model using (1) the Dust Veil Index of Lamb, (2) a solar parameterization which includes the length of the solar cycle, and (3) anthropogenic forcing. The implication is that all three forcings are important in explaining the temperature variations. The general similarity in low-frequency trends between the two independently-derived time series supports the validity of both the model estimates and the tree-ring reconstruction.     

The statistical distribution of magnetotelluric apparent resistivity and phase

The marginal distributions for the magnetotelluric (MT) magnitude squared response function (and hence apparent resistivity) and phase are derived from the bivariate complex normal distribution that describes the distribution of response function estimates when the Gauss–Markov theorem is satisfied and the regression random errors are normally distributed. The distribution of the magnitude squared response function is shown to be non-central chi-squared with 2 degrees of freedom, with the non-centrality parameter given by the squared magnitude of the true MT response. The standard estimate for the magnitude squared response function is biased, with the bias proportional to the variance and hence important when the uncertainty is large. The distribution reduces to the exponential when the expected value of the MT response function is zero. The distribution for the phase is also obtained in closed form. It reduces to the uniform distribution when the squared magnitude of the true MT response function is zero or its variance is very large. The phase distribution is symmetric and becomes increasingly concentrated as the variance decreases, although it is shorter-tailed than the Gaussian. The standard estimate for phase is unbiased. Confidence limits are derived from the distributions for magnitude squared response function and phase. Using a data set taken from the 2003 Kaapvaal transect, it is shown that the bias in the apparent resistivity is small and that confidence intervals obtained using the non-parametric delta method are very close to the true values obtained from the distributions. Thus, it appears that the computationally simple delta approximation provides accurate estimates for the confidence intervals, provided that the MT response function is obtained using an estimator that bounds the influence of extreme data.     

Uncertainty assessment in river flow projections for Ethiopia’s Upper Awash Basin using multiple GCMs and hydrological models

ABSTRACT

Uncertainty in climate change impacts on river discharge in the Upper Awash Basin, Ethiopia, is assessed using five MIKE SHE hydrological models, six CMIP5 general circulation models (GCMs) and two representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios for the period 2071–2100. Hydrological models vary in their spatial distribution and process representations of unsaturated and saturated zones. Very good performance is achieved for 1975–1999 (NSE: 0.65–0.8; r: 0.79–0.93). GCM-related uncertainty dominates variability in projections of high and mean discharges (mean: –34% to +55% for RCP4.5, – 2% to +195% for RCP8.5). Although GCMs dominate uncertainty in projected low flows, inter-hydrological model uncertainty is considerable (RCP4.5: –60% to +228%, RCP8.5: –86% to +337%). Analysis of variance uncertainty attribution reveals that GCM-related uncertainty occupies, on average, 68% of total uncertainty for median and high flows and hydrological models no more than 1%. For low flows, hydrological model uncertainty occupies, on average, 18% of total uncertainty; GCM-related uncertainty remains substantial (average: 28%).     

Purines,pyrimidines and organic carbon in lake sediments — A comparison of sediments from lakes of varying degrees of eutrophication

Sediment cores from the Great Lakes of North America and the Bodensee (Lake Constance) were analysed for purine and pyrimidine contents and total organic carbon. Lakes subject to recent cultural eutrophication showed steep increases in both organic carbon and purine and pyrimidine concentrations in the recently deposited sediments. Analytical results for Lake Huron (oligotrophic) and for a highly eutrophic area of the Bodensee (Gnadensee) appeared remarkably similar, in that only gradual, linear increases were observed in the total organic carbon curves. The curves for total purines and pyrimidines were also less steep for these cores as compared to the others studied. A possible explanation is that both areas represent lakes with no serious, recent changes in productivity. Uracil was found to decrease in concentration faster than any other purine or pyrimidine in the first few centimeters of all cores, supporting previous suggestions of more rapid turnover of this pyrimidine in sediments.     

An analytical solution for stresses induced by a post-tensioned anchor in rocks containing two perpendicular joint sets

A new analytical approach for the analysis of stress around a post-tensioned anchor in rock with two perpendicular joint sets is presented. The solution considers nonlinear shear stresses developed along the anchor bond length as well as debonding at the tendon–grout interface. The bearing plate effects are also considered in the analyses. The following assumptions are made: (1) homogeneous and orthotropic elastic rock; (2) half-space rock mass with plane strain conditions; (3) trilinear bond-slip model for the behavior of the tendon–grout interface; (4) an elastic anchor. The employed methodology is to decompose the anchor problem into two problems of simpler loadings: stresses produced under a rigid bearing plate and stresses induced by interfacial shear stresses mobilized along the bond length. Based on the proposed solution, an illustrative example is given and the results show that a large compressive region is formed around the anchor free length. Tensile stress concentrations are also observed around the bond length and near the rock surface outside the bearing plate. A parametric study is also conducted to investigate the effects of joint properties on the induced stresses. The results show that as the number of joints intersecting the anchor axis increases, the magnitude of compressive stresses in the free zone decreases, while the size of compression zone around the anchor increases. To verify the results of the analytical approach, a comparison is made with numerical results obtained by using the finite element method. The analytical solutions compare very well with the results obtained by numerical method.     

Possible influence of salinity and temperature on modern shelf carbonate sedimentation

In modern, marine, carbonate sands from shelf areas between the equator and latitudes 60°S and 60°N several major grain associations can be distinguished.On open shelves (< 100 m water depth) there are two skeletal grain associations. One (chlorozoan) is virtually restricted to warm, tropical waters; the other (foramol) characterizes temperate waters but also extends into the tropics. The distribution of these two associations cannot be explained in terms of water temperature alone: salinity is suspected as being a further controlling factor. Indeed, a third skeletal association (chloralgal) appears to be characteristic of areas where salinity is higher than on open shelves.Non-skeletal grains, where present, can be grouped into two associations. In one, pellets are the only non-skeletal grains represented; in the other, ooliths and/or aggregate grains are also present. These non-skeletal associations are restricted to relatively warm waters, but temperature does not determine which one of the associations develops. Again, salinity seems important.As both salinity and temperature apparently influence the grain associations, an attempt is made to present the relationships diagrammatically. By using graph pairs of “maximum temperature/minimum salinity” and “minimum temperature/maximum salinity” (named S.T.A.R. diagrams after Salinity Temperature Annual Ranges), the various grain associations can be classed into separate salinity/temperature fields.Salinity and temperature often seem to have a mutual “compensating” effect. For example, even at high temperatures the chlorozoan association does not develop if the salinity falls below a certain value, but it develops at relatively low temperatures when salinity is sufficiently high.This “compensation” effect also appears on the S.T.A.R. diagram for non-skeletal associations. More striking here, however, is a relationship suggesting that development of the oolith/aggregate association is strongly dependent on salinity.Carbonate muds are not shown on the S.T.A.R. diagrams, but an attempt is made to assimilate them into the model.The S.T.A.R. diagrams have a predictive value. In principle, given salinity and temperature values for an area, the grain associations can be predicted. In fact, the prediction is one of “potential”, i.e. that which is to be expected provided any other necessary environmental conditions are satisfied. Predictions are presented for the shelves of an ideal ocean and of present-day oceans and seas. The S.T.A.R. diagrams thus provide the basis for a tentative global model of present-day shelf carbonate sedimentation.The special problems of land-locked seas are discussed with reference to the Mediterranean Sea and the Persian Gulf. Predictions are presented.To illustrate the possibilities of the S.T.A.R. diagram technique, an attempt at detailed prediction is given for an area — the Gulf of Batabano, Cuba — where the sediments are known and predictions can be checked.In conclusion, the problems inherent in applying the model to ancient sedimentary systems are briefly discussed.     

Stable carbon and oxygen isotope fractionation in bivalve (Placopecten magellanicus) larval aragonite

The relationship between stable isotope composition (δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O) in seawater and in larval shell aragonite of the sea scallop, Placopecten magellanicus, was investigated in a controlled experiment to determine whether isotopes in larval shell aragonite can be used as a reliable proxy for environmental conditions. The linear relationship between δ¹³C_DIC and δ¹³C_aragonite (r² = 0.97, p < 0.0001, RMSE = 0.18) was:

δ¹³C_DIC=1.15(±0.05)∗δ¹³C_aragonite-0.85(±0.04)     

The global importance and context of methane escape from the seabed

Seabed fluid flow includes volcanic and hydrothermal fluid emissions from ocean spreading centres, island arcs, and intra-plate volcanism, and groundwater flows in some coastal areas. Of direct concern to this paper is the escape of methane from the seabed. Escaping methane may be of microbial, thermogenic or abiogenic origin. Escapes occur in all seas and oceans, in coastal waters, on continental shelves, slopes and rises, the deep oceans, and deep ocean trenches. These represent a variety of geological contexts on passive continental margins, at convergent plate margins (accretionary wedges) and transform plate boundaries. Seepage is clearly widespread, and it contributes methane to the biosphere, the hydrosphere and the atmosphere, thus making up an important part of the global carbon cycle.