Detection Time for Plausible Changes in Annual Precipitation, Evapotranspiration, and Streamflow in Three Mississippi River Sub-Basins

We use diagnostic studies of off-line variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model simulations of terrestrial water budgets and 21st-century climate change simulations using the parallel climate model (PCM) to estimate the time required to detect predicted changes in annual precipitation (P), evapotranspiration (E), and discharge (Q) in three sub-basins of the Mississippi River Basin. Time series lengths on the order of 50–350 years are required to detect plausible P, E, and Q trends in the Missouri, Ohio, and Upper Mississippi River basins. Approximately 80–160, 50, and 140–350 years, respectively, are needed to detect the predicted P, E, and Q trends with a high degree of statistical confidence. These detection time estimates are based on conservative statistical criteria (α = 0.05 and β = 0.10) associated with low probability of both detecting a trend when it is not occurring (Type I error) and not detecting a trend when it is occurring (Type II error). The long detection times suggest that global-warming-induced changes in annual basin-wide hydro-climatic variables that may already be occurring in the three basins probably cannot yet be detected at this level of confidence. Furthermore, changes for some variables that may occur within the 21st century might not be detectable for many decades or until the following century – this may or may not be the case for individual recording station data. The long detection times for streamflow result from comparatively low signal-to-noise ratios in the annual time series. Finally, initial estimates suggest that faster detection of acceleration in the hydrological cycle may be possible using seasonal time series of appropriate hydro-climatic variables, rather than annual time series.     

Role of hypsometry and planform in basin hydrologic response

The effects of variations of drainage basin morphometry and relief characteristics on flood peak magnitude and time-to-peak are investigated using simulated stream networks. The networks are produced by three models: headward growth, systematic capture, and minimum power relaxation. Translational and kinematic wave flood routing were used to generate synthetic hydrographs. Peak discharge and time-to-peak are predictable to a high degree by five different sets of morphometric-relief parameters. In order of decreasing order of importance in predictive ability the parameters characterize basin size, relative relief, basin concavity, and basin shape. Both simulated and natural stream networks exhibit strong dependence of planimetric morphometry upon basin concavity. The effect of this dependency is to increase the effect of basin concavity upon flood hydrographs.     

A Late‐glacial chironomid record from Hawes Water,northwest England

This paper presents the results of a high‐resolution Late‐glacial chironomid stratigraphy from Hawes Water, a small carbonate lake in northern Lancashire. The samples were from a core taken from the terrestrialised margin of the present lake, which represents an intermediate depth between the true littoral and the profundal. The chironomid assemblage showed a high degree of sensitivity to both broad‐scale and short‐term temperature changes. Comparison with an existing proxy temperature record (δ¹⁸O) for the site confirmed the presence of four temperature inversions within the Late‐glacial Interstadial. A mean July air temperature inference model, derived from acid, soft‐water lakes in Norway and Svalbard, was applied to the data. Despite the absence of carbonate lakes within the Norwegian training set, there was a close similarity between trends in estimated July air temperature and the δ¹⁸O trace, with a particularly strong correspondence in the periods of clay deposition. This suggests that this model is highly robust. The inferred maximum Interstadial temperature was 13.4°C, dropping initially to 7.5°C in the Loch Lomond Stadial. Temperatures reach a maximum of nearly 10°C in this period, cool for a short period before rising rapidly to 13.2°C at the start of the Holocene. These temperatures are similar to but slightly higher than those estimated for Whitrig Bog, southeast Scotland, and lower than those inferred from coleopteran‐based models for sites in South Wales. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Layer-stripping reverse-time migration1

We present a layer-stripping method of migration for irregularly layered media in which first-order velocity discontinuities separate regions of constant or smoothly varying velocity. We use the reverse-time method to migrate seismic data layer by layer, from the surface downwards. As part of the migration of a given layer, the bottom boundary of the layer is defined based on power in the migrated signal, and a seismic section is collected along it. This new section serves as the boundary condition for migration in the next layer. This procedure is repeated for each layer, with the final image formed from the individual layer images. Layer-stripping migration consists of three steps: (1) layer definition, (2) wavefield extrapolation and imaging, and (3) boundary determination. The migration scheme when used with reverse-time extrapolation is similar to datuming with an imaging condition. The reverse-time method uses an explicit fourth-order time, tenth-order space, finite-difference approximation to the scalar wave equation. The advantages of layer-stripping reverse-time migration are: (1) it preserves the benefits of the reverse-time method by handling strong velocity contrasts between layers and steeply dipping structures; (2) it reduces computer memory and saves computation time in high-velocity layers, and (3) it allows interpretational control of the image. Post-stack layer-stripping reverse-time migration is illustrated with a synthetic CMP data example. Prestack migration is illustrated with a synthetic data set and with a marine seismic reflection profile across the Santa Maria Basin and the Hosgri Fault in central California.     

Glutathione S-transferase from an antarctic fish, Dissostichus mawsoni

Glutathione S-transferase activity was measured in the hepatic cytosol front Dissostichus mawsoni and Pagothenia borchgrevinki. Activity measures with 1-chloro-2,4-dinitrobenzene as substrate were 11·2 and 16·7 μmol/min/g tissue respectively. Little or no activity was detected when p-nitrobenzyl chloride or 3,4-dichloro-1-nitrobenzene were used as substrate. The hepatic glutathione S-transferases from D. mawsoni were partially purified using gel filtration and chromatofocusing. Three peaks of activity were resolved. The major isozyme (158-fold purification) eluting at pH7·1 appeared to be catalytically a homodimer. The isozyme was highly inhibited by triphenyltin chloride (IC₅₀ = 0·1 μ) while inhibition constants for Cibicron Blue 3GA, bromosulphophalein and hematin were 1·1, 20 and 34 μ respectively.     

A three-dimensional finite-element model of wind effects upon higher harmonics of the internal tide

A non-linear three-dimensional unstructured grid model of the M₂ tide in the shelf edge area off the west coast of Scotland is used to examine the spatial distribution of the M₂ internal tide and its higher harmonics in the region. In addition, the spatial variability of the tidally induced turbulent kinetic energy and associated mixing in the area are considered. Initial calculations involve only tidal forcing, although subsequent calculations are performed with up-welling and down-welling favourable winds to examine how these influence the tidal distribution (particularly the higher harmonics) and mixing in the region. Both short- and long-duration winds are used in these calculations. Tidal calculations show that there is significant small-scale spatial variability particularly in the higher harmonics of the internal tide in the region. In addition, turbulence energy and mixing exhibit appreciable spatial variability in regions of rapidly changing topography, with increased mixing occurring above seamounts. Wind effects significantly change the distribution of the M₂ internal tide and its higher harmonics, with appreciable differences found between up- and down-welling winds and long- and short-duration winds because of differences in mixing and the presence of wind-induced flows. The implications for model validation, particularly in terms of energy transfer to higher harmonics, and mixing are briefly discussed.     

The Richfield LL3 chondrite

Abstract— Richfield is a moderately shocked (shock stage S4) LL3.7 genomict breccia find consisting mainly of light-colored recrystallized clasts and dark clasts exhibiting significant silicate darkening; a few impact-melt-rock clasts and LL5 chondrite clasts also occur. The cosmic-ray exposure age of 14.5 Ma is indistinguishable from the main exposure peak for LL chondrites (15 Ma). Although the exposure ages indicate little He loss, the gas-retention ages indicate high gas losses that must have occurred prior to or during ejection from the LL parent body.