New,simplified and improved interpretation of the Vaiont landslide mechanics

Both the occurrence and behaviour of the Vaiont landslide have not been satisfactorily explained previously because of difficulties arising from the assumption that the failure surface was ‘chair’ shaped. It is now known that there was no ‘chair’, which means that the 1963 landslide could not have been a reactivated ancient landslide because the residual strength of the clay interbeds would have been insufficient for stability prior to 1963. Furthermore, the moderately translational geometry reduces the influence of reservoir-induced groundwater and hence of submergence. Standard stability analyses now show that prior to 1960, the average shear strength must have significantly exceeded the peak shear strength of the clay interbeds known to have formed the majority of the failure surface. Three-dimensional stability analyses confirm these results and show that at the time of the first significant movements in 1960, the rising reservoir level had a negligible effect on the Factor of Safety. According to these results, the Vaiont landslide was most likely initiated by pore water pressures associated with transient rainfall-induced ‘perched’ groundwater above the clay layers, in combination with a smaller than hitherto assumed effect of reservoir impounding, then developed by brittle crack propagation within the clay beds, thus displaying progressive failure. Further, very heavy rainfall accelerated the process, possibly due to reservoir-induced groundwater impeding drainage of the rainwater, until the limestone beds at the northeast margin failed. With the shear strength suddenly reduced to residual throughout, the entire mass was released and was able to accelerate as observed.     

Characterising thermal water circulation in fractured bedrock using a multidisciplinary approach: a case study of St. Gorman’s Well,Ireland

A hydrogeological conceptual model of the source, circulation pathways and temporal variation of a low-enthalpy thermal spring in a fractured limestone setting is derived from a multidisciplinary approach. St. Gorman’s Well is a thermal spring in east-central Ireland with a complex and variable temperature profile (maximum of 21.8 °C). Geophysical data from a three-dimensional(3D)audio-magnetotelluric(AMT) survey are combined with time-lapse hydrogeological data and information from a previously published hydrochemical analysis to investigate the operation of this intriguing hydrothermal system. Hydrochemical analysis and time-lapse measurements suggest that the thermal waters flow within the fractured limestones of the Carboniferous Dublin Basin at all times but display variability in discharge and temperature. The 3D electrical resistivity model of the subsurface revealed two prominent structures: (1) a NW-aligned faulted contact between two limestone lithologies; and (2) a dissolutionally enhanced, N-aligned, fault of probable Cenozoic age. The intersection of these two structures, which has allowed for karstification of the limestone bedrock, has created conduits facilitating the operation of relatively deep hydrothermal circulation (likely estimated depths between 240 and 1,000 m) within the limestone succession of the Dublin Basin. The results of this study support a hypothesis that the maximum temperature and simultaneous increased discharge observed at St. Gorman’s Well each winter is the result of rapid infiltration, heating and recirculation of meteoric waters within a structurally controlled hydrothermal circulation system.

     

Integrated smart robot with earthquake early warning system for automated inspection and emergency response

Natural Hazards - Earthquakes as a natural hazard have caused substantial economic losses and human life loss in many countries. Taiwan, which is located on the western Circum-Pacific seismic belt,...     

An assessment of uncertainties in VS profiles obtained from microtremor observations in the phased 2018 COSMOS blind trials

Journal of Seismology - Site response is a critical consideration when assessing earthquake hazards. Site characterization is key to understanding site effects as influenced by seismic site...     

The effect of providing probabilistic information about a tornado threat on people’s protective actions

National Weather Service issues deterministic warnings in a tornado event. An alternative system is being researched at National Severe Storms Laboratory to issue Probabilistic Hazard Information (PHI). This study investigated how providing the uncertainty information about the tornado occurrence through PHI changes people’s protective actions. In an experiment, visual displays of the probabilistic information and deterministic warnings were presented to fifty participants to report their expected protective actions in different scenarios. It was found that the percentage of people who expected to immediately take shelter right after receiving the weather information increased exponentially as their proximity to the threat decreased. When there was more chance that the information about occurrence of a particular tornado was false rather than true, in scenarios that the likelihood of the threat occurrence was less than 50%, providing it through PHI lowered the percentage of people who immediately took shelter. The ordinal logistic regression models showed that the probability of taking protective actions significantly changes by providing the uncertainty information when people have less than 20 min lead time before getting impacted by the threat. When the lead time is less than 10 min, the probability of immediately taking shelter increases to 94 from 71%, and when the lead time is more than 10 but less than 20 min, that probability increases from 53 to 70%, if they are provided with the probabilistic information. Presenting the likelihood of any tornado formation in the area did not have significant effect on the people’s protective actions.     

Impact melting of the largest known enstatite meteorite: Al Haggounia 001, a fossil EL chondrite

Al Haggounia 001 and paired specimens (including Northwest Africa [NWA] 2828 and 7401) are part of a vesicular, incompletely melted, EL chondrite impact melt rock with a mass of ~3 metric tons. The meteorite exhibits numerous shock effects including (1) development of undulose to weak mosaic extinction in low‐Ca pyroxene; (2) dispersion of metal‐sulfide blebs within silicates causing “darkening”; (3) incomplete impact melting wherein some relict chondrules survived; (4) vaporization of troilite, resulting in S₂ bubbles that infused the melt; (5) formation of immiscible silicate and metal‐sulfide melts; (6) shock‐induced transportation of the metal‐sulfide melt to distances >10 cm; (7) partial resorption of relict chondrules and coarse silicate grains by the surrounding silicate melt; (8) crystallization of enstatite in the matrix and as overgrowths on relict silicate grains and relict chondrules; (9) crystallization of plagioclase from the melt; and (10) quenching of the vesicular silicate melt. The vesicular samples lost almost all of their metal during the shock event and were less susceptible to terrestrial weathering; in contrast, the samples in which the metal melt accumulated became severely weathered. Literature data indicate the meteorite fell ~23,000 yr ago; numerous secondary phases formed during weathering. Both impact melting and weathering altered the meteorite's bulk chemical composition: e.g., impact melting and loss of a metal‐sulfide melt from NWA 2828 is responsible for bulk depletions in common siderophile elements and in Mn (from alabandite); weathering of oldhamite caused depletions in many rare earth elements; the growth of secondary phases caused enrichments in alkalis, Ga, As, Se, and Au.