Mapping landslide susceptibility from small datasets: A case study in the Pays de Herve (E Belgium)

A landslide susceptibility map is proposed for the Pays de Herve (E Belgium), where large landslides affect Cretaceous clay outcrop areas. Based on a Bayesian approach, this GIS-supported probabilistic map identifies the areas most susceptible to deep landslides. The database is comprised of the source areas of ten pre-existing landslides (i.e. a sample of 154 grid cells) and of six environmental data layers, namely lithology, proximity to active faults, slope angle and aspect, elevation and distance to the nearest valley-floor. A 30-m-resolution DEM from the Belgian National Geographical Institute is used for the analysis. Owing to the small size of the sample, a special cross-validation procedure of the susceptibility map is performed, which uses in an iterative way each of the landslides to test the predictive power of the map derived from the other landslides. Four different sets of variables are used to produce four susceptibility maps, whose prediction curves are compared. While the prediction rates associated with the models not involving the “proximity to active fault” criterion are comparable to those of the models considering this variable, strong weaknesses inherent in the fault data on which the latter rely suggest that the final susceptibility map should be based on a model that excludes any reference to fault. This highlights the difference between a triggering factor and determining factors, and in the same time broadens the scope of the produced map. A single reactivated slide is also used to test the possibility of predicting future reactivation of existing landslides in the area. Finally, the need for geomorphological control over the mathematical treatment is underlined in order to obtain realistic prediction maps.     

Reconciling pyroclastic flow and surge: the multiphase physics of pyroclastic density currents

Two end-member types of pyroclastic density current are commonly recognized: pyroclastic surges are dilute currents in which particles are carried in turbulent suspension and pyroclastic flows are highly concentrated flows. We provide scaling relations that unify these end-members and derive a segregation mechanism into basal concentrated flow and overriding dilute cloud based on the Stokes number (S_T), the stability factor (Σ_T) and the dense-dilute condition (D_D). We recognize five types of particle behaviors within a fluid eddy as a function of S_T and Σ_T: (1) particles sediment from the eddy, (2) particles are preferentially settled out during the downward motion of the eddy, but can be carried during its upward motion, (3) particles concentrate on the periphery of the eddy, (4) particles settling can be delayed or ‘fast-tracked’ as a function of the eddy spatial distribution, and (5) particles remain homogeneously distributed within the eddy. We extend these concepts to a fully turbulent flow by using a prototype of kinetic energy distribution within a full eddy spectrum and demonstrate that the presence of different particle sizes leads to the density stratification of the current. This stratification may favor particle interactions in the basal part of the flow and D_D determines whether the flow is dense or dilute. Using only intrinsic characteristics of the current, our model explains the discontinuous features between pyroclastic flows and surges while conserving the concept of a continuous spectrum of density currents.     

Data assimilation (4D-VAR) to forecast flood in shallow-waters with sediment erosion

In this paper, the four-dimensional variational data assimilation technique (4D-VAR) is presented as a tool to forecast floods. Our study is limited to purely hydrological flows and supposes that the weather, here a big rain, has been already forecasted by meteorological services. The technique consists in minimizing, in the sense of Lagrange, the cost function: a measure of the difference between calculated data and available observations, here the water level. This is done under constraints that are the equations of the physical model. In our case, we modified the shallow-water equations to include a simplified sediment transport model. The steepest descent algorithm is then used to find the minimum. This is made possible because we can compute analytically the gradient of the cost function by using the adjoint equations of the model. As an application of the 4D-VAR technique, the overflowing of the Chicoutimi River at the Chute-Garneau dam, during the 1996 flood, is investigated. It is found that the 4D-VAR method reduces the error in the water height forecast even when the erosion model is not activated. In terms of Lyapunov exponents, we estimate the predictability horizon of such an event to be about half-an-hour after a big rain. However, this limit of predictability can be increased by using more observations or by using a finer computational grid.     

Changes in stream water quality due to logging of the boreal forest in the Montmorency Forest,Québec

Summer stream water quality was monitored before and following the logging of 50% of the boreal forest within three small watersheds (<50 ha) nested in the ‘Ruisseau des Eaux‐Volées’ Experimental Watershed, Montmorency Forest (Québec, Canada). Logging was conducted in winter, on snow cover according to recommended best management practices (BMPs) to minimize soil disturbance and protect advance growth. A 20‐m forest buffer was maintained along perennial streams. In watershed 7·2, cut‐blocks were located near the stream network and logging was partially allowed within the riparian buffer zone. In watersheds 7·5 and 7·7, logging occurred farther away from the stream network. Observations were also made for watershed 7·3 that collected the runoff from watersheds 7·2 and 7·5, and watershed 7·6, the uproad portion of watershed 7·7. The control watershed 0·2 was contiguous to the impacted watersheds and remained undisturbed. Following clearcutting, changes in summer daily maximum and minimum stream temperatures remained within ± 1 °C while changes in diurnal variation did not decrease by more than 0·5 °C. Concentrations of NO₃^? greatly increased by up to 6000% and concentrations of K⁺ increased by up to 300% during the second summer after logging. Smaller increases were observed for Fe_total (up to 71%), specific conductance (up to 26%), and Mg²⁺ (up to 19%). Post‐logging pH decreased slightly by no more than 7% while PO₄^3? concentration remained relatively constant. Suspended sediment concentrations appeared to increase during post‐logging, but there was not enough pre‐logging data to statistically confirm this result. Logging of moderate intensity and respecting established BMPs may account for the limited changes of water quality parameters and the low exceedances of the criteria for the protection of aquatic life. The proximity of the cutover to the stream network and logging within the riparian zone did not appear to affect water quality. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Prolonged Magmatic and Tectonic Development of the Caribbean Igneous Province Revealed by a Diving Submersible Survey

Using the diving submersible survey NAUTICA we investigated the central part of the Caribbean large igneous province (CLIP) to observe and sample internal portions of this proposed oceanic plateau. Most of the samples are gabbroic and doleritic rocks; basalts are scarce. Radiometric dating by ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar incremental heating experiments indicate that the intrusive rocks are Campanian in age (81–75 Ma). In some places these intrusive rocks underlie older Santonian (85–83 Ma) extrusive basaltic rocks, suggesting that the Campanian rocks represent a sill injection and an underplating episode. Results of the diving program supplemented by information from ODP and DSDP drilling sites document a 20 m.y. period (94–75 Ma) of igneous activity in the submerged portion of the Caribbean large igneous province (CLIP). In the northern part of the Beata Ridge late Campanian and/or post Campanian uplift is documented by prominent Maastrichtian (71–65 Ma) erosion and the establishment of a Paleocene-middle Eocene (65–49 Ma) carbonate platform. During and after the uplift an extensional period is indicated by seismic images and the subsidence (3 km depth) of the carbonate platform. Paleocene ages (55–56 Ma) determined on some volcanic samples are attributed to localised decompression mantle melting that accompanied the extension. We document a prolonged period of magmatic and tectonic events that do not fit with the current models of short-lived plateau formation during mantle plume initiation but shares many similarities with the constructional histories of other oceanic large igneous provinces.     

The isotopic signature of monsoon conditions,cloud modes,and rainfall type

This work provides a comprehensive physically based framework for the interpretation of the north Australian rainfall stable isotope record (δ¹⁸O and δ²H). Until now, interpretations mainly relied on statistical relationships between rainfall amount and isotopic values on monthly timescales. Here, we use multiseason daily rainfall stable isotope and high resolution (10 min) ground‐based C‐band polarimetric radar data and show that the five weather types (monsoon regimes) that constitute the Australian wet season each have a characteristic isotope ratio. The data suggest that this is not only due to changes in regional rainfall amount during these regimes but, more importantly, is due to different rain and cloud types that are associated with the large scale circulation regimes. Negative (positive) isotope anomalies occurred when stratiform rainfall fractions were large (small) and the horizontal extent of raining areas were largest (smallest). Intense, yet isolated, convective conditions were associated with enriched isotope values whereas more depleted isotope values were observed when convection was widespread but less intense. This means that isotopic proxy records may record the frequency of which these typical wet season regimes occur. Positive anomalies in paleoclimatic records are most likely associated with periods where continental convection dominates and convection is sea‐breeze forced. Negative anomalies may be interpreted as periods when the monsoon trough is active, convection is of the oceanic type, less electric, and stratiform areas are wide spread. This connection between variability of rainfall isotope anomalies and the intrinsic properties of convection and its large‐scale environment has important implications for all fields of research that use rainfall stable isotopes.     

Seasonal DOC accumulation in the Black Sea: a regional explanation for a general mechanism

During three cruises in the Black Sea, organised in July 1995 and April–May 1997, biological and chemical parameters that can influence the carbon budget were measured in the water column on the NW shelf, particularly in the mixing zone with Danube River waters. We observed in early spring (end of April–May) conditions an important input of freshwater organisms that enhanced the microbial activity in the low salinity range. High bacterial activity regenerates nitrogen in the form of nitrates, but is also responsible for an important consumption of ammonium and phosphate, leading to a high N/P ratio and a strong deficit in phosphorus. The consequence is a limitation of phytoplankton development but also a production of carbohydrates that accumulate all along the salinity gradient. These mechanisms are responsible for a seasonal accumulation of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) that increases from 210 μM in winter to about 280 μM in summer. All this excess DOC disappears during winter, probably degraded by bacterial activity. The degradation of carbon-rich organic matter increases the phosphorus demand by bacteria bringing limitation to phytoplankton primary production.