Scenario Reduction Applied to Geostatistical Simulations

Having a large number of geostatistical simulations of a mineral or petroleum deposit provides a better idea of its upside potential and downside risk; however, large numbers of simulated realizations of a deposit may pose computational difficulties in subsequent decision-making phases. Hence, depending on the specific case, there can be a need to select a representative subset of conditionally simulated deposit realizations. This paper examines and extends an approach developed by the stochastic optimization community based on stochastic mathematical programming with recourse and is discussed here in the context of mineral deposits while it is possibly suitable for other earth science applications. The approach is based on measuring the “distance” between simulations and the introduced distance measure between simulated realizations of a mineral deposit is based on the metal above a given set of cutoff grades while a pre-existing mine design is available. The approach is tested on 100 simulations of the Walker Lake data with promising results.     

Chemical evolution of thermal waters and changes in the hydrothermal system of Papandayan volcano (West Java,Indonesia) after the November 2002 eruption

Papandayan is a stratovolcano situated in West Java, Indonesia. Since the last magmatic eruption in 1772, only few hydrothermal explosions have occurred. An explosive eruption occurred in November 2002 and ejected ash and altered rocks. The altered rocks show that an advanced argillic alteration took place in the hydrothermal system by interaction between acid fluids and rocks. Four zones of alteration have been defined and are limited in extension and shape along faults or across permeable structures at different levels beneath the active crater of the volcano.     

Characterization of juvenile pyroclasts from the Kos Plateau Tuff (Aegean Arc): insights into the eruptive dynamics of a large rhyolitic eruption

Silicic pumices formed during explosive volcanic eruptions are faithful recorders of the state of the magma in the conduit, close to or at the fragmentation level. We have characterized four types of pumices from the non-welded rhyolitic Kos Plateau Tuff, which erupted 161,000 years ago in the East Aegean Arc, Greece. The dominant type of pumice (>90 vol.%) shows highly elongated tubular vesicles. These tube pumices occur throughout the eruption. Less common pumice types include: (1) “frothy” pumice (highly porous with large, sub-rounded vesicles), which form 5–10 vol.% of the coarsest pyroclastic flow deposits, (2) dominantly “microvesicular” and systematically crystal-poor pumices, which are found in early erupted, fine-grained pyroclastic flow units, and are characterized by many small (<50 μm in diameter) vesicles and few mm-sized, irregular voids, (3) grey or banded pumices, indicating the interaction between the rhyolite and a more mafic magma, which are found throughout the eruption sequence and display highly irregular bubble shapes. Except for the grey-banded pumices, all three other types are compositionally identical and were generated synchronously as they are found in the same pyroclastic units. They, therefore, record different conditions in the volcanic conduit leading to variable bubble nucleation, growth and coalescence. A total of 74 pumice samples have been characterized using thin section observation, SEM imagery, porosimetry, and permeametry. We show that the four pumice types have distinct total and connected porosity, tortuosity and permeability. Grey-banded pumices show large variations in petrophysical characteristics as a response to mingling of two different magmas. The microvesicular, crystal-poor, pumices have a bimodal bubble size distribution, interpreted as reflecting an early heterogeneous bubble nucleation event followed by homogeneous bubble nucleation close to fragmentation. Finally, the significant differences in porosity, tortuosity and permeability in compositionally identical tube and frothy pumices are the result of variable shear rates in different parts of the conduit. Differential shear rates may be the result of either: (1) pure shear, inducing a vertical progression from frothy to tube and implying a relatively thick fragmentation zone to produce both types of pumices at the same time or (2) localized simple shear, inducing strongly tubular vesicles along the wall and near-spherical bubbles in the centre of the conduit and not necessarily requiring a thick fragmentation zone.     

Relativistic anisotropic pair plasmas

The properties of waves able to propagate in a relativistic pair plasma are at the basis of the interpretation of several astrophysical observations. For instance, they are invoked in relation to radio emission processes in pulsar magnetospheres and to radiation mechanisms for relativistic radio jets. In such physical environments, pair plasma particles probably have relativistic, or even ultrarelativistic, temperatures. Besides, the presence of an extremely strong magnetic field in the emission region constrains the particles to one-dimensional motion: all the charged particles strictly move along magnetic field lines.
We take anisotropic effects and relativistic effects into account by choosing one-dimensional relativistic Jűttner–Synge distribution functions to characterize the distribution of electrons and/or positrons in a relativistic, anisotropic pair plasma. The dielectric tensor, from which the dispersion relation associated with plane wave perturbations of such a pair plasma is derived, involves specific coefficients that depend on the distribution function of particles. A precise determination of these coefficients, using the relativistic one-dimensional Jűttner–Synge distribution function, allows us to obtain the appropriate dispersion relation. The properties of waves able to propagate in anisotropic relativistic pair plasmas are deduced from this dispersion relation. The conditions in which a beam and a plasma, both ultrarelativistic, may interact and trigger off a two-stream instability are obtained from this same dispersion relation. Two astrophysical applications are discussed.     

Late Cenozoic transpressional ductile deformation north of the Nazca–South America–Antarctica triple junction

The southern Andes plate boundary zone records a protracted history of bulk transpressional deformation during the Cenozoic, which has been causally related to either oblique subduction or ridge collision. However, few structural and chronological studies of regional deformation are available to support one hypothesis or the other. We address along- and across-strike variations in the nature and timing of plate boundary deformation to better understand the Cenozoic tectonics of the southern Andes.Two east–west structural transects were mapped at Puyuhuapi and Aysén, immediately north of the Nazca–South America–Antarctica triple junction. At Puyuhuapi (44°S), north–south striking, high-angle contractional and strike-slip ductile shear zones developed from plutons coexist with moderately dipping dextral-oblique shear zones in the wallrocks. In Aysén (45–46°), top to the southwest, oblique thrusting predominates to the west of the Cenozoic magmatic arc, whereas dextral strike-slip shear zones develop within it.New ⁴⁰Ar–³⁹Ar data from mylonites and undeformed rocks from the two transects suggest that dextral strike-slip, oblique-slip and contractional deformation occurred at nearly the same time but within different structural domains along and across the orogen. Similar ages were obtained on both high strain pelitic schists with dextral strike-slip kinematics (4.4±0.3 Ma, laser on muscovite–biotite aggregates, Aysén transect, 45°S) and on mylonitic plutonic rocks with contractional deformation (3.8±0.2 to 4.2±0.2 Ma, fine-grained, recrystallized biotite, Puyuhuapi transect). Oblique-slip, dextral reverse kinematics of uncertain age is documented at the Canal Costa shear zone (45°S) and at the Queulat shear zone at 44°S. Published dates for the undeformed protholiths suggest both shear zones are likely Late Miocene or Pliocene, coeval with contractional and strike-slip shear zones farther north. Coeval strike-slip, oblique-slip and contractional deformation on ductile shear zones of the southern Andes suggest different degrees of along- and across-strike deformation partitioning of bulk transpressional deformation.The long-term dextral transpressional regime appears to be driven by oblique subduction. The short-term deformation is in turn controlled by ridge collision from 6 Ma to present day. This is indicated by most deformation ages and by a southward increase in the contractional component of deformation. Oblique-slip to contractional shear zones at both western and eastern margins of the Miocene belt of the Patagonian batholith define a large-scale pop-up structure by which deeper levels of the crust have been differentially exhumed since the Pliocene at a rate in excess of 1.7 mm/year.     

Hydrothermal alterations in the Echassières granitic cupola (Massif central,france)

Detailed petrographic and mineralogic investigations of an albite-lepidolite granite at Echassières (Massif Central, France; scientific deep drill program) shows the existence of hydrothermal stages which are closely related to the magmatic and structural history. According to fluid inclusion data, K-Ar datations and ¹⁸O/¹⁶O-D/H compositions of secondary minerals, two successive hydrothermal periods have been recognized. The early one (273–268 million years) produced a series of aluminous phyllosilicates: muscovite, pyrophyllite, donbassite, tosudite, kaolinite which are observed as vein deposits (<10 mm wide) and alteration products of primary minerals in wall-rocks. The vein system was sealed by monomineralic assemblages during a cooling period (400–150°C). This early hydrothermal alteration stage was controlled by interactions of rock with low salinity (1–10 wt% NaCl equivalent) fluids expelled from the granitic body during the cooling processes. The chemical properties of these fluids were the following: low pH, very low Mg and Fe and high Li, Na and K contents. Thermodynamic calculations show that the sequence pyrophyllite, Li-bearing donbassite, tosudite is mostly temperature dependent. From the chemical composition of secondary minerals and isotopic data it can be deduced that these fluids, which have a meteoric origin, have been expelled from the granite body during its cooling period and after interaction with it at high temperature. The late hydrothermal stage corresponds to deposits of fluorite and Fe-Mg rich illite (151 million years) in subvertical fractures. Temperature conditions did not exceed 250° C and fluids came through the surrounding metamorphic rocks into the granitic body. IIlite/smectite mixed-layer minerals have been identified in subvertical fractures which were opened during Tertiary periods. In the host micaschists, successive hydrothermal alterations took place during the cooling of the Beauvoir granite. Early magmatic fluids interacted with these micaschists. Locally, the metamorphic assemblage is replaced by a metasomatic one. Secondary topaz and (F, Li)-rich mica crystals were formed over a range of 450 of 150°C. Later hydrothermal fluids reacted with the country rocks to form phengite-biotite, chlorite-illite and kaolinite over a range of 300 to 150°C. Illite/smectite mixed-layer minerals crystallized in the roof micaschists and within the Beauvoir granite during the Tertiary alteration period. Meteoric water invaded open fractures producing supergene alteration mineral assemblages.     

Early Miocene adakite-like volcanism in the Balkuyumcu region, central Anatolia, Turkey: Petrology and geochemistry

The Balkuyumcu region, located in the southwestern part of Ankara in the Izmir-Ankara suture zone (central Anatolia, Turkey), consists of basic andesitic, andesitic, dacitic and rhyolitic rocks extruded during the Early Miocene (20–22 Ma) as a result of post-collisional volcanism. Balkuyumcu volcanic rocks can be divided into two groups on the basis of their mineralogy and composition: The basic andesitic (BA) and andesitic, dacitic and rhyolitic (ADR) groups. The ADR and BA group of rocks have adakite-like and calc-alkaline characteristics, respectively. The ADR group has higher SiO₂ content, Sr/Y and La/Yb ratios and low MgO, Mg#, Y and Yb contents than the BA group. Both groups have nearly the same Sr, Nd isotopic compositions and display similar normalized multi-element patterns with enrichments in LILE and LREE, depletions in Nb, Ti, Zr, P and a lack of Eu anomalies. Major, trace element and Sr, Nd isotopic data indicate that both groups of rocks were derived from the same source but affected by different magmatic processes during ascent. The adakite-like rocks may have been produced by partial melting of thickened lower continental crust. Fractional crystallization also played a major role in their formation. However, the BA group rocks were derived from partial melting of lower continental crust that was probably delaminated. These rocks appear to have had limited interaction with mantle peridodite during ascent to the surface.     

Risk assessment of groundwater pollution using sensitivity analysis and a worst-case scenario analysis

This paper illustrates how sensitivity analysis and a worst-case scenario analysis can be useful tools in risk assessment of groundwater pollution. The approach is applied to a study area in Hungary with several known groundwater pollution sources and nearby drinking water production wells. The main concern is whether the contamination sources threaten the drinking water wells of the area. A groundwater flow and transport model is set up to answer this question. Due to limited data availability, the results of this model are associated with large uncertainty. Sensitivity analysis and a worst-case scenario analysis are applied to estimate this uncertainty and build confidence in the model results.     

Flow dynamics at the origin of thin clayey sand lacustrine turbidites: Examples from Lake Hazar,Turkey

Turbidity currents and their deposits can be investigated using several methods, i.e. direct monitoring, physical and numerical modelling, sediment cores and outcrops. The present study focused on thin clayey sand turbidites found in Lake Hazar (Turkey) occurring in eleven clusters of closely spaced thin beds. Depositional processes and sources for three of those eleven clusters are studied at three coring sites. Bathymetrical data and seismic reflection profiles are used to understand the specific geomorphology of each site. X‐ray, thin sections and CT scan imagery combined with grain‐size, geochemical and mineralogical measurements on the cores allow characterization of the turbidites. Turbidites included in each cluster were produced by remobilization of surficial slope sediment, a process identified in very few studies worldwide. Three types of turbidites are distinguished and compared with deposits obtained in flume studies published in the literature. Type 1 is made of an ungraded clayey silt layer issued from a cohesive flow. Type 2 is composed of a partially graded clayey sand layer overlain by a mud cap, attributed to a transitional flow. Type 3 corresponds to a graded clayey sand layer overlain by a mud cap issued from a turbulence‐dominated flow. While the published experimental studies show that turbulence is damped by cohesion for low clay content, type 3 deposits of this study show evidence for a turbulence‐dominated mechanism despite their high clay content. This divergence may in part relate to input variables, such as water chemistry and clay mineralogy, that are not routinely considered in experimental studies. Furthermore, the large sedimentological variety observed in the turbidites from one coring site to another is related to the evolution of a sediment flow within a field‐scale basin made of a complex physiography that cannot be tackled by flume experiments.