Mapping landslide susceptibility from small datasets: A case study in the Pays de Herve (E Belgium)

A landslide susceptibility map is proposed for the Pays de Herve (E Belgium), where large landslides affect Cretaceous clay outcrop areas. Based on a Bayesian approach, this GIS-supported probabilistic map identifies the areas most susceptible to deep landslides. The database is comprised of the source areas of ten pre-existing landslides (i.e. a sample of 154 grid cells) and of six environmental data layers, namely lithology, proximity to active faults, slope angle and aspect, elevation and distance to the nearest valley-floor. A 30-m-resolution DEM from the Belgian National Geographical Institute is used for the analysis. Owing to the small size of the sample, a special cross-validation procedure of the susceptibility map is performed, which uses in an iterative way each of the landslides to test the predictive power of the map derived from the other landslides. Four different sets of variables are used to produce four susceptibility maps, whose prediction curves are compared. While the prediction rates associated with the models not involving the “proximity to active fault” criterion are comparable to those of the models considering this variable, strong weaknesses inherent in the fault data on which the latter rely suggest that the final susceptibility map should be based on a model that excludes any reference to fault. This highlights the difference between a triggering factor and determining factors, and in the same time broadens the scope of the produced map. A single reactivated slide is also used to test the possibility of predicting future reactivation of existing landslides in the area. Finally, the need for geomorphological control over the mathematical treatment is underlined in order to obtain realistic prediction maps.     

Duality properties of Gorringe–Leach equations

In the category of motions preserving the angular momentum direction, Gorringe and Leach exhibited two classes of differential equations having elliptical orbits. After enlarging slightly these classes, we show that they are related by a duality correspondence of the Arnold–Vassiliev type. The specific associated conserved quantities (Laplace–Runge–Lenz vector and Fradkin–Jauch–Hill tensor) are then dual reflections of each other.     

Subsurface DC resistivity mapping: approximate 1-D interpretation

Resistivity prospecting is the main tool used to investigate the shallow structure of the ground. A series of new techniques for determining the 2-D and 3-D geometry of the ground is now finding increasing use, but the light and simple Wenner prospecting technique remains a practical and efficient tool for rapidly mapping lateral variations in resistivity. When the resistivity changes are smooth, 1-D modelling can be used to interpret the data, and the criteria governing this approximation can be defined from synthetic data generated by a 3-D slab-model. For a Wenner array, two quadripole configurations can be used, Normal and Dipole-Dipole. For these two configurations the width of the transition zone, the apparent anisotropy effect and the precision of the resistivity values recovered from 1-D inversion differ. However the simultaneous inversion of both sets of data gives better results than for either configuration by itself. Two examples illustrate that in geological contexts where the thickness of the weathered zone causes the changes in the apparent resistivity value, this parameter can be recovered from 1-D inversion.     

Variscan to eo-Alpine events recorded in European lower-crust zircons sampled from the French Massif Central and Corsica, France

Ion-microprobe U–Pb zircon dating of lower-crust metasedimentary granulite are reported on samples from two localities in Europe in order to determine (a) how this environment recorded the Variscan and eo-Alpine events, and (b) whether the transition between the two orogenic cycles was continuous or separated by a gap. The samples come from enclaves hosted by Miocene volcanoes at Bournac in the French Massif Central, and from the granulitic metasedimentary basement of the Alpine Santa Lucia nappe in Corsica, on the South European paleomargin of the Ligurian branch of the Tethys Sea. The zircon ages from Bournac range between 630 and 430 Ma and between 380 and 150 Ma with a major frequency peak at 285 Ma; the zircons older than 430 Ma are interpreted as detrital, whereas those younger than 380 Ma are considered to have formed by metamorphic processes after burial in the lower crust. Zircon ages from Santa Lucia range from to 356 to 157 Ma, with exception of one inherited Archean grain, and are interpreted like the younger Bournac zircons as having been formed by metamorphic processes.

In a granulite metamorphic environment, as opposed to an anatectic environment, new zircon growth can occur in the solid state. Once Zr has been incorporated into zircon, however, it is difficult to remobilize without dissolution; thus Zr available for new zircon growth must result from the breakdown of Zr-bearing minerals during prograde and/or retrograde events. In this light, the U–Pb zircon-age probability curves are interpreted as markers for major tectonometamorphic events, as suggested by the close correspondence between peaks in the curve and geological events recorded in the upper-crust, such as magma emplacement and basin subsidence.

Evidence of a tectonometamorphic gap between the Variscan and Alpine orogeneses is provided by the Santa Lucia zircon-age probability curve, which reveals a probable interlude during the Variscan–Alpine transition between 240 and 210 Ma. Here, the peak at 240 Ma is interpreted as the very beginning of crustal extension and the low at 210 Ma as a period of quiescence prior to the formation of an active margin and oceanization.     

Estimating River Conductance from Prior Information to Improve Surface‐Subsurface Model Calibration

Most groundwater models simulate stream‐aquifer interactions with a head‐dependent flux boundary condition based on a river conductance (CRIV). CRIV is usually calibrated with other parameters by history matching. However, the inverse problem of groundwater models is often ill‐posed and individual model parameters are likely to be poorly constrained. Ill‐posedness can be addressed by Tikhonov regularization with prior knowledge on parameter values. The difficulty with a lumped parameter like CRIV, which cannot be measured in the field, is to find suitable initial and regularization values. Several formulations have been proposed for the estimation of CRIV from physical parameters. However, these methods are either too simple to provide a reliable estimate of CRIV, or too complex to be easily implemented by groundwater modelers. This paper addresses the issue with a flexible and operational tool based on a 2D numerical model in a local vertical cross section, where the river conductance is computed from selected geometric and hydrodynamic parameters. Contrary to other approaches, the grid size of the regional model and the anisotropy of the aquifer hydraulic conductivity are also taken into account. A global sensitivity analysis indicates the strong sensitivity of CRIV to these parameters. This enhancement for the prior estimation of CRIV is a step forward for the calibration and uncertainty analysis of surface‐subsurface models. It is especially useful for modeling objectives that require CRIV to be well known such as conjunctive surface water‐groundwater use.     

Wave groupiness and spectral bandwidth as relevant parameters for the performance assessment of wave energy converters

To date the estimation of long-term wave energy production at a given deployment site has commonly been limited to a consideration of the significant wave height H_s and mean energy period T_e. This paper addresses the sensitivity of power production from wave energy converters to the wave groupiness and spectral bandwidth of sea states. Linear and non-linear systems are implemented to simulate the response of converters equipped with realistic power take-off devices in real sea states. It is shown in particular that, when the converters are not much sensitive to wave directionality, the bandwidth characteristic is appropriate to complete the set of overall wave parameters describing the sea state for the purpose of estimating wave energy production.     

Resolving climate change in the period 15–23 ka in Greenland ice cores: a new application of spectral trend analysis

Northern Hemisphere climate history through and following the Last Glacial Maximum is recorded in detail in ice cores from Greenland. However, the period between Greenland Interstadials 1 and 2 (15–23 ka), i.e. the period of deglaciation following the last major glaciation, has been difficult to resolve in great detail. We here offer a new subdivision of this in the NGRIP, GRIP and GISP2 ice cores, by newly introducing spectral trend analysis to the study of climate-related data series from ice cores. This analysis reveals patterns of change and discontinuity in the waveform properties of a data series, relating to the environmental (including climatic) history of accumulation of the rock or ice record. The application allows high-resolution correlation between the ice cores, and a greatly improved subdivision of the study interval. Nine climatic phases are recognized, within which more identifiable events can also be correlated between the three locations.     

Changes in stream water quality due to logging of the boreal forest in the Montmorency Forest,Québec

Summer stream water quality was monitored before and following the logging of 50% of the boreal forest within three small watersheds (<50 ha) nested in the ‘Ruisseau des Eaux‐Volées’ Experimental Watershed, Montmorency Forest (Québec, Canada). Logging was conducted in winter, on snow cover according to recommended best management practices (BMPs) to minimize soil disturbance and protect advance growth. A 20‐m forest buffer was maintained along perennial streams. In watershed 7·2, cut‐blocks were located near the stream network and logging was partially allowed within the riparian buffer zone. In watersheds 7·5 and 7·7, logging occurred farther away from the stream network. Observations were also made for watershed 7·3 that collected the runoff from watersheds 7·2 and 7·5, and watershed 7·6, the uproad portion of watershed 7·7. The control watershed 0·2 was contiguous to the impacted watersheds and remained undisturbed. Following clearcutting, changes in summer daily maximum and minimum stream temperatures remained within ± 1 °C while changes in diurnal variation did not decrease by more than 0·5 °C. Concentrations of NO₃^? greatly increased by up to 6000% and concentrations of K⁺ increased by up to 300% during the second summer after logging. Smaller increases were observed for Fe_total (up to 71%), specific conductance (up to 26%), and Mg²⁺ (up to 19%). Post‐logging pH decreased slightly by no more than 7% while PO₄^3? concentration remained relatively constant. Suspended sediment concentrations appeared to increase during post‐logging, but there was not enough pre‐logging data to statistically confirm this result. Logging of moderate intensity and respecting established BMPs may account for the limited changes of water quality parameters and the low exceedances of the criteria for the protection of aquatic life. The proximity of the cutover to the stream network and logging within the riparian zone did not appear to affect water quality. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydrocarbon pollution of the Mediterranean coastline of Morocco

Organic geochemical study of hydrocarbon pollution of the Mediterranean coastline of Morocco (Tangier-Nador) was performed during March–April 2002. It corresponds to a preliminary work representing an initial assessment of oil contamination of Moroccan coast.Three coastal sites corresponding to Tangier, Tetouan and Nador, representing the main built-up area of this marine region, were selected for superficial sediments, water and organism sampling. Results showed high contamination levels in these three selected sites, known as the most exposed areas to urban and industrial discharges. The maximal contamination corresponding to the sum of non-aromatic (NAH) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) encountered in sediment samples was about 553 μg/g (dw). Nevertheless, even a small city agglomeration without any industrial activity showed high values reaching 370 μg/g (dw), which confirm the important hydrocarbons input coming from discharges of fishing ships and oil transporting tankers.The obtained results from this survey reflecting in part the important amounts drained via effluents toward the Moroccan Mediterranean coasts, presented to the concerned authorities drove to the realization of the project of treatment of the wastewater.They later expect to lower rates by 50%, which is still insufficient for a fragile ecosystem such as the Mediterranean and sensitive to anthropogenic effects.