A landslide susceptibility map is proposed for the Pays de Herve (E Belgium), where large landslides affect Cretaceous clay outcrop areas. Based on a Bayesian approach, this GIS-supported probabilistic map identifies the areas most susceptible to deep landslides. The database is comprised of the source areas of ten pre-existing landslides (i.e. a sample of 154 grid cells) and of six environmental data layers, namely lithology, proximity to active faults, slope angle and aspect, elevation and distance to the nearest valley-floor. A 30-m-resolution DEM from the Belgian National Geographical Institute is used for the analysis. Owing to the small size of the sample, a special cross-validation procedure of the susceptibility map is performed, which uses in an iterative way each of the landslides to test the predictive power of the map derived from the other landslides. Four different sets of variables are used to produce four susceptibility maps, whose prediction curves are compared. While the prediction rates associated with the models not involving the “proximity to active fault” criterion are comparable to those of the models considering this variable, strong weaknesses inherent in the fault data on which the latter rely suggest that the final susceptibility map should be based on a model that excludes any reference to fault. This highlights the difference between a triggering factor and determining factors, and in the same time broadens the scope of the produced map. A single reactivated slide is also used to test the possibility of predicting future reactivation of existing landslides in the area. Finally, the need for geomorphological control over the mathematical treatment is underlined in order to obtain realistic prediction maps. 相似文献
In the category of motions preserving the angular momentum direction, Gorringe and Leach exhibited two classes of differential
equations having elliptical orbits. After enlarging slightly these classes, we show that they are related by a duality correspondence
of the Arnold–Vassiliev type. The specific associated conserved quantities (Laplace–Runge–Lenz vector and Fradkin–Jauch–Hill
tensor) are then dual reflections of each other. 相似文献
Resistivity prospecting is the main tool used to investigate the shallow structure of the ground. A series of new techniques for determining the 2-D and 3-D geometry of the ground is now finding increasing use, but the light and simple Wenner prospecting technique remains a practical and efficient tool for rapidly mapping lateral variations in resistivity. When the resistivity changes are smooth, 1-D modelling can be used to interpret the data, and the criteria governing this approximation can be defined from synthetic data generated by a 3-D slab-model. For a Wenner array, two quadripole configurations can be used, Normal and Dipole-Dipole. For these two configurations the width of the transition zone, the apparent anisotropy effect and the precision of the resistivity values recovered from 1-D inversion differ. However the simultaneous inversion of both sets of data gives better results than for either configuration by itself. Two examples illustrate that in geological contexts where the thickness of the weathered zone causes the changes in the apparent resistivity value, this parameter can be recovered from 1-D inversion. 相似文献
Ion-microprobe U–Pb zircon dating of lower-crust metasedimentary granulite are reported on samples from two localities in Europe in order to determine (a) how this environment recorded the Variscan and eo-Alpine events, and (b) whether the transition between the two orogenic cycles was continuous or separated by a gap. The samples come from enclaves hosted by Miocene volcanoes at Bournac in the French Massif Central, and from the granulitic metasedimentary basement of the Alpine Santa Lucia nappe in Corsica, on the South European paleomargin of the Ligurian branch of the Tethys Sea. The zircon ages from Bournac range between 630 and 430 Ma and between 380 and 150 Ma with a major frequency peak at 285 Ma; the zircons older than 430 Ma are interpreted as detrital, whereas those younger than 380 Ma are considered to have formed by metamorphic processes after burial in the lower crust. Zircon ages from Santa Lucia range from to 356 to 157 Ma, with exception of one inherited Archean grain, and are interpreted like the younger Bournac zircons as having been formed by metamorphic processes.
In a granulite metamorphic environment, as opposed to an anatectic environment, new zircon growth can occur in the solid state. Once Zr has been incorporated into zircon, however, it is difficult to remobilize without dissolution; thus Zr available for new zircon growth must result from the breakdown of Zr-bearing minerals during prograde and/or retrograde events. In this light, the U–Pb zircon-age probability curves are interpreted as markers for major tectonometamorphic events, as suggested by the close correspondence between peaks in the curve and geological events recorded in the upper-crust, such as magma emplacement and basin subsidence.
Evidence of a tectonometamorphic gap between the Variscan and Alpine orogeneses is provided by the Santa Lucia zircon-age probability curve, which reveals a probable interlude during the Variscan–Alpine transition between 240 and 210 Ma. Here, the peak at 240 Ma is interpreted as the very beginning of crustal extension and the low at 210 Ma as a period of quiescence prior to the formation of an active margin and oceanization. 相似文献
Most groundwater models simulate stream‐aquifer interactions with a head‐dependent flux boundary condition based on a river conductance (CRIV). CRIV is usually calibrated with other parameters by history matching. However, the inverse problem of groundwater models is often ill‐posed and individual model parameters are likely to be poorly constrained. Ill‐posedness can be addressed by Tikhonov regularization with prior knowledge on parameter values. The difficulty with a lumped parameter like CRIV, which cannot be measured in the field, is to find suitable initial and regularization values. Several formulations have been proposed for the estimation of CRIV from physical parameters. However, these methods are either too simple to provide a reliable estimate of CRIV, or too complex to be easily implemented by groundwater modelers. This paper addresses the issue with a flexible and operational tool based on a 2D numerical model in a local vertical cross section, where the river conductance is computed from selected geometric and hydrodynamic parameters. Contrary to other approaches, the grid size of the regional model and the anisotropy of the aquifer hydraulic conductivity are also taken into account. A global sensitivity analysis indicates the strong sensitivity of CRIV to these parameters. This enhancement for the prior estimation of CRIV is a step forward for the calibration and uncertainty analysis of surface‐subsurface models. It is especially useful for modeling objectives that require CRIV to be well known such as conjunctive surface water‐groundwater use. 相似文献
To date the estimation of long-term wave energy production at a given deployment site has commonly been limited to a consideration of the significant wave height Hs and mean energy period Te. This paper addresses the sensitivity of power production from wave energy converters to the wave groupiness and spectral bandwidth of sea states. Linear and non-linear systems are implemented to simulate the response of converters equipped with realistic power take-off devices in real sea states. It is shown in particular that, when the converters are not much sensitive to wave directionality, the bandwidth characteristic is appropriate to complete the set of overall wave parameters describing the sea state for the purpose of estimating wave energy production. 相似文献
Northern Hemisphere climate history through and following the Last Glacial Maximum is recorded in detail in ice cores from Greenland. However, the period between Greenland Interstadials 1 and 2 (15–23 ka), i.e. the period of deglaciation following the last major glaciation, has been difficult to resolve in great detail. We here offer a new subdivision of this in the NGRIP, GRIP and GISP2 ice cores, by newly introducing spectral trend analysis to the study of climate-related data series from ice cores. This analysis reveals patterns of change and discontinuity in the waveform properties of a data series, relating to the environmental (including climatic) history of accumulation of the rock or ice record. The application allows high-resolution correlation between the ice cores, and a greatly improved subdivision of the study interval. Nine climatic phases are recognized, within which more identifiable events can also be correlated between the three locations. 相似文献
Organic geochemical study of hydrocarbon pollution of the Mediterranean coastline of Morocco (Tangier-Nador) was performed during March–April 2002. It corresponds to a preliminary work representing an initial assessment of oil contamination of Moroccan coast.Three coastal sites corresponding to Tangier, Tetouan and Nador, representing the main built-up area of this marine region, were selected for superficial sediments, water and organism sampling. Results showed high contamination levels in these three selected sites, known as the most exposed areas to urban and industrial discharges. The maximal contamination corresponding to the sum of non-aromatic (NAH) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) encountered in sediment samples was about 553 μg/g (dw). Nevertheless, even a small city agglomeration without any industrial activity showed high values reaching 370 μg/g (dw), which confirm the important hydrocarbons input coming from discharges of fishing ships and oil transporting tankers.The obtained results from this survey reflecting in part the important amounts drained via effluents toward the Moroccan Mediterranean coasts, presented to the concerned authorities drove to the realization of the project of treatment of the wastewater.They later expect to lower rates by 50%, which is still insufficient for a fragile ecosystem such as the Mediterranean and sensitive to anthropogenic effects. 相似文献