Scenarios of Seismic Risk in the United Arab Emirates,an Approximate Estimate

We estimate the losses due to 10 scenario earthquakes in 150 settlements of the United Arab Emirates (UAE). For southern Iran, we use four source zones and the maximum magnitudes in them as determined by GSHAP (7.2 M 8.1). For six local scenario earthquakes, we use the range 5.5 M 6.5, place the sources mainly on mapped faults and vary the distance to major cities from 10 to 60 km. In the test case of the Masafi earthquake (M5, 11 March 2002), the method and data bank we use yield the correct results, suggesting that our approach to the problem is valid for the UAE. The sources in Iran are expected to cause only minor damage, except for an M8.1 earthquake in the Makran region. For such an event we expect some deaths, several hundred injured and a loss of 3–6% of the value to the building stock in the northeastern UAE, including Oman. The losses for local scenarios with epicenters in the unpopulated areas of the UAE and for scenarios with M < 5.8 are estimated to be minor. Because the two major mapped faults run through several of the large cities, scenarios with short epicentral distances from cities have to be considered. Scenarios with M6 near cities lead to estimates of about 1000 ± 500 deaths, and several thousand injured. Most buildings are expected to be damaged to a moderate degree and the loss to buildings is estimated around 1/4of their value. If the magnitude should reach 6.5, the losses to humans and to building value could be staggering. These estimates are approximate because: (1) there exists no local seismograph network that could map active faults by locating microseismicity; (2) there exist no historically old buildings that could serve as tests for effects due to strong ground motion in the past; (3) there exist no microzonation of the subsurface properties in this region of unconsolidated building ground; (4) there exist no detailed inventory of building fragility. Nevertheless, our conclusion that there exists a substantial seismic risk in the UAE is reliable, because our method yields accurate results in the cases of earthquakes with known losses during the last several decades in the Middle East.     

Comparison Between Recorded and Derived Horizontal Peak Ground Accelerations in Jordan

The isoseismal map for the earthquake that occurred in the Jordan Valley on 11 July 1927 was analyzed and used to develop Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) Attenuation relation for Jordan needed for use in relevant seismic hazard evaluation procedures. Strong motion data of earthquakes that occurred in Jordan and Israel during the last 15 years were summarized. A comparison is made between recorded PGA's and those calculated using the derived Attenuation relations commonly used by experts in the region. The comparison showed that the derived relation is appropriate for estimating PGA values on alluvium foundations. The derived relation gave results close to those obtained using a relation introduced by Esteva in 1974. The 1982 relation of Ben-Menahem and co-workers gave reasonable predictions of PGA values for most geological formations of foundations, in general.     

Seismic reliability analysis of earth slopes under short term stability conditions

Different models were developed for evaluating the probabilistic three-dimensional (3-D) stability analysis of earth slopes and embankments under earthquake loading. The 3-D slope stability model assumed is that of a simple cylindrical failure surface. The probabilistic models evaluate the probability of failure under seismic loading considering the randomness of earthquake occurrence, and earthquake induced acceleration and uncertainties stemming from the discrepancies between laboratory-measured and in-situ values of shear strength parameters. The models also takes into consideration the spatial variabilities and correlations of soil properties. The probabilistic analysis and design approach is capable of obtaining the 2-D and 3-D static and dynamic safety factors, the probability of slope failure, the earthquake induced acceleration coefficient, the yield acceleration coefficient, the earthquake induced displacement, and the probability of allowable displacement exceedance taking into account the local site effect. The approach is applied to a well known landslide case: Congress Street Landslide in Chicago. A sensitivity analysis was conducted on the different parameters involved in the models by applying those models to the Congress Street landslide considering different levels of seismic hazard. Also, a sensitivity analysis was carried out to study the sensitivity of computed results to input parameters of undrained shear strength, and corrective factors. A comparison was made between the different models of failure. The parametric study revealed that the hypocentral distance and earthquake magnitude have major influence on the earthquake induced displacement, probability of failure and dynamic 2-D and 3-D safety factors.     

Seismic analysis and design of rigid bridge abutments considering rotation and sliding incorporating non-linear soil behavior

A two-dimensional (2D) finite element analytical model is developed to analyze the seismic response of rigid highway bridge abutments, retaining and founded on dry sand. A well verified finite element code named FLEX is used for this purpose. The proposed model has the following characteristics: (1) The soil (dry sand in this study) is modeled by a 2D finite element grid; (2) The bridge abutment is molded as a rigid substructure; (3) The strength and deformation of the soil are modeled using the viscous cap constitutive model. This model consists of a failure surface and hardening cap together with an associated flow rule. The cap surface is activated for the soil under the wall to represent compaction during wall rocking. In addition, viscoelastic behavior is provided for representing the hysteretic-like damping of soil during dynamic loading; (4) Interface elements are used between the wall and the soil (at the backface of the wall and under its base) to allow for sliding and for debonding/recontact behavior; (5) The finite element grid is truncated by using an absorbing boundary approximation. Using this boundary at both sides of the grid simulates the horizontal radiation of energy scattered from the wall and the excavation. Shear beams are placed adjacent to the lateral boundaries from each side which give the far-field ground motion, for comparison with those computed adjacent to the boundaries. The analytical model is verified comparing predictions to results from dynamic centrifuge tests, with satisfactory agreement. The proposed model is used to study the dynamic response of an 8.0 m high and 3.0 m wide rigid bridge abutment (proportioned using the traditional approach to design) for different sinusoidal and earthquake acceleration input motions. The results from the analysis show that outward tilting of rigid bridge abutments is the dominant mode of response during dynamic shaking and that these abutments end up with a permanent outward tilt at the end of shaking. The results from all the analyzed cases of the 8.0 m high gravity retaining wall together with those from the analysis of the tilting wall centrifuge tests are discussed and used for proposing a practical method for evaluating the seismic response of rigid abutments during earthquakes.     

Regional geologic environs and natural resources of Badia Sector, Jordan

 This paper summarizes the information on the geology and natural resources of the Jordan Badia Research and Development Programme. The research focused on the issue of the environment in arid lands as an aid to provide practical options for sustainable development. This paper presents results of field studies in the following areas related to the sustainable development of the Safawi area in the northern Jordan Badia; geomorphology, including landform, soil, lands, processes and hazards, geology and physical resources and surface water hydrology. Tertiary-Quaternary continental basalt flows and tuffs cover approximately 11 000 km², the majority of the Safawi area. In addition to extensive basalt lava flows, the programme area includes a variety of geological outcrops and potential sources of economic products that include the following: Tuff/Scoria, Zeolite/Olivine, Porcellanite, potential sources of aggregate/construction materials, ornamental stone, building stone, basalt for manufacturing of rock wool, and materials suitable for producing lightweight aggregate. The whole of the eastern Badia exhibits major fault systems, many of which were identified from Landsat TM images. The system of wadis which drains the Badia is extensive, with the general flow from the north to the south and south-west. A noticeable geomorphic surficial deposit occuring throughout much of the Badia is fine-grained, water-lain sediments that vary in size and character. The local designation for the fine sediment deposits is Qaa. An MSS scene for the area under consideration has been studied. Twelve major geomorphic subdivisions or zones can be identified. Individual land system units have been identified by traversing the programme area. Key sites have been visited based on Landsat TM image interpretation. To a large extent, key areas were subdivided after their initial identification on the Landsat scene and corroboration in the field. The surface drainage of the Badia region can be broadly divided into wadi systems, areas of distinct channelized flow, and Qaa, predominantly fine-grained sedimentary basins of low relief. Spatial variability in infiltration rates across the wadi-Qaa system were determined from field experiments. Infiltration rates were found to be medium-high in the wadi channels but decrease rapidly for the Qaa materials. Apparently runoff from wadi side slopes will be high, and water storage occurs along the wadi channels while ponding occurs in the Qaa areas. Received: 13 March 1997 · Accepted: 13 January 1998     

Evaluation of Strong Motion Acceleration for Embankment Dam Design Considering Local Seismotectonics

A probabilistic method is used to evaluate the seismichazard of Adassiya dam site on the Yarmouk river in Jordan. A line source model developedby McGuire (1978) is used in this study. An updated earthquake catalogue coveringthe period from 1 A.D. to 1996 A.D. is used for this purpose. This catalogue includesall earthquakes that occurred in Jordan and adjacent areas, more specifically between latitudes27.0°–35.5°N and longitudes 32.0°–39.0°E.Nine distinct seismic sources of potential seismic activitiesare identified. The seismic hazard parameters are determined using the method suggested by Kijko and Sellevoll (1989).The Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) is selected as a measure of ground motion severity. Esteva (1974) attenuation relationship is used in evaluating PGA values at each dam site. Analysis is carried out for 50%, 90%, and 95% probability that is not being exceeded in a life time of 50, 100, and 200 years.Results of analysis indicate that PGA values at the dam site are as follows:[] Operating Basis Earthquake (OBE) (50% probabilityof non-exceedance for a design life of 100 years – corresponding to a return period of 145 years) is 133.6 cm/sec².[] An earthquake with 90% probability of non-exceedancefor a design life of 50 years – corresponding to a return period of 475 years is 214.9 cm/sec².[] Maximum Credible Earthquake (MCE) (Return period of900 years) is 283.0 cm/sec².Strong motion acceleration time history of these earthquakes are givenbased on strong motion records of the November 1995 Gulf of Aqaba earthquake.Local site effect analysis for Adassiya Dam site using SHAKE program showed no amplification. Normalized site-specific acceleration response spectra for OBE and MCE design earthquakes is also given.     

Modeling uncertainty in stability analysis for design of embankment dams on difficult foundations

A probabilistic 3-D slope stability analysis model (PTDSSAM) is developed to evaluate the stability of embankment dams and their foundations under conditions of staged construction taking into consideration uncertainty, spatial variabilities and correlations of shear strength parameters, as well as the uncertainties in pore water pressure. The model has the following capabilities: (1) conducting undrained shear strength analysis (USA) and effective stress analysis (ESA) slope stability analysis of staged construction, (2) incorporation of field monitored data of pore water pressure, and (3) incorporation of increase of undrained shear strength with depth, effective stress, and pore water pressure dissipation. The PTDSSAM model is incorporated in a computer program that can analyze slopes located in multilayered deposits, considering the total slope width.

The main outputs of the program are the geometric parameters of the most critical sliding surface (i.e., center of rotation/radius of rotation and critical width of failure), mean 2-D safety factor, mean 3-D safety factor, squared coefficient of variation of resisting moment, and the probability of slope failure. The program is applied to a case study, Karameh dam in Jordan. Monitored data of induced pore water pressure in the dam embankment and soft foundation were gathered during dam construction.

The stability of Karameh dam embankment and foundation was evaluated during staged construction using deterministic and probabilistic analysis. Foundation stability was evaluated based on the monitored data of pore water pressure.

The study showed that the mean values of the corrective factors which account for the discrepancies between the in situ and laboratory-measured values of soil properties and for the modeling errors have significant influence on the 2-D safety factor, 3-D safety factor, slope probability of failure, and on the expected failure width.

The degree of spatial correlation associated with shear strength parameters within a soil deposit also influences the probability of slope failure and the expected failure width. This correlation is quantified by scale of fluctuation. It is found that a larger scale of fluctuation gives an increase in the probability of slope failure and a reduction in the critical failure width.     

Experience of Vibrocompaction in Calcareous Sand of UAE

The study is concerned with the influence of various factors on vibro compaction in calcareous soils, This include effect of carbonate content, and influence of pore water pressures in sand, settlements during vibrocompaction, vibroaccelerations during sand column installation compared to earthquake accelerations and finally the liquefaction design based on average CPT parameters. Previous experiences with calcareous sands and literature review confirm the necessity to apply a correlation factor for calcareous material to the raw cone penetration resistance CPT values obtained in the field. Because of the very fragile grains of the Dubai calcareous sands the penetration resistance will be influenced by crushing and grinding. To accommodate for effect of calcareous sands on measured CPT values, a best fit correlations formula called here “correlation factor” is developed. A parametric dynamic triaxial liquefaction testing programme has been executed on representative samples with loose and dense zones. Representative testing parameters for field conditions and earthquake design accelerations have been applied indicating that ground improvement is necessary. It was observed during the dynamic triaxial tests that the whole soil mass consisting of dense columns and looser zones in between behaves jointly, and therefore compaction control using an average-CPT approach is possible.     

Reliability analysis of three-dimensional dynamic slope stability and earthquake-induced permanent displacement

Different models were developed for evaluating the probabilistic three-dimensional (3D) stability analysis of earth slopes and embankments under earthquake loading using both the safety factor and the displacement criteria of slope failure. In the 3D analysis, the critical and total slope widths become two new and important parameters.The probabilistic models evaluate the probability of failure under seismic loading considering the different sources of uncertainties involved in the problem, i.e. uncertainties stemming from the discrepancies between laboratory-measured and in-situ values of shear strength parameters, randomness of earthquake occurrence, and earthquake-induced acceleration. The models also takes into consideration the spatial variabilities and correlations of soil properties.Five probabilistic models of earthquake-induced displacement were developed based on the non-exceedance of a limited value criterion. Moreover, a probabilistic model for dynamic slope stability analysis was developed based on 3D dynamic safety factor.These models are formulated and incorporated within a computer program (PTDDSSA).A sensitivity analysis was conducted on the different parameters involved in the developed models by applying those models to a well-known landslides (Selset landslide) under different levels of seismic hazard.The parametric study was conducted to evaluate the effect of different input parameters on the resulting critical failure width, 3D dynamic safety factor, earthquake-induced displacement and the probability of failure. Input parameters include: average values and coefficients of variations of water table, cohesion and angle of friction for effective stress analysis, scales of fluctuations in both distance and time, hypocentral distance, earthquake magnitude, earthquake strong shaking period, etc.The hypocentral distance and earthquake magnitude were found to have major influence on the earthquake-induced displacement, probability of failure (i.e. probability of allowable displacement exceedance), and dynamic 2D and 3D safety factors.     

Comparison between predictions using different simplified Newmarks' block-on-plane models and field values of earthquake induced displacements

The study is concerned with the assessment of simplified Newmarks' block-on-plane models available in the literature for evaluating the permanent earthquake induced displacements of cut slopes and embankments, and the recommendation of a well-verified model/procedure. For this purpose, incidents of earthquake induced displacements of geotechnical structures, were collected from worldwide literatures and used in the study. Actual values of displacements were compared with predictions using different models.Based on the analyses, interpretations and discussions in this study, it was concluded that the Nadim and Whitman method (Nadim F, Whitman RV. Journal of the Geotechnical Engineering Division, ASCE 1983;109(GT7):915–931) is the most accurate method for obtaining the earthquake induced displacement. The correlation coefficient between predicted values using the Nadim and Whitman method and the actual recorded ones for geotechnical structures was 0.770; the highest among correlation coefficients for other methods.