Quadrature-based approach for the efficient evaluation of surge hazard

The Joint Probability Method (JPM) has been used for hurricane surge frequency analysis for over three decades, and remains the method of choice owing to the limitations of more direct historical methods. However, use of the JPM approach in conjunction with the modern generation of complex high-resolution numerical models (used to describe winds, waves, and surge) has become highly inefficient, owing to the large number of costly storm simulations that are typically required. This paper describes a new approach to the selection of the storm simulation set that permits reduction of the JPM computational effort by about an order of magnitude (compared to a more conventional approach) while maintaining good accuracy. The method uses an integration scheme called Bayesian or Gaussian-process quadrature (together with conventional integration methods) to evaluate the multi-dimensional joint probability integral over the space of storm parameters (pressure, radius, speed, heading, and any others found to be important) as a weighted summation over a relatively small set of optimally selected nodes (synthetic storms). Examples of an application of the method are shown, drawn from the recent post-Katrina study of coastal Mississippi.     

pT-effects of Pleistocene glacial periods on permafrost,gas hydrate stability zones and reservoir of the Mittelplate oil field,northern Germany

During the past two million years low surface temperatures as well as episodically advancing ice sheets from Scandinavia acted on the subsurface pT-regime of northern Germany. Their likely effects on the petroleum system of Schleswig-Holstein were investigated. For the entire Quaternary mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) was reconstructed at a resolution of 1000 years by calibrating oxygen isotope records from ODP-site 659 to the climate of northern Germany of the past 120 kyr. The resulting MAGT trend served as input to an ice sheet model and a permafrost model along a 2D section crossing the petroleum bearing south-western part of Schleswig-Holstein. Here advances and retreats of the Scandinavian ice sheet during Saalian and Elsterian glaciation Stages were reconstructed. Maximum ice thicknesses of up to 1700 m and up to 20 periods of regional permafrost in northern Germany were reconstructed for the past 1.25 million years. Based on a basal heat flow of 50 mW/m² permafrost thicknesses exceeded 100 m during most of these periods, temporarily extending down to depths of more than 300 m. Favourable surface temperatures and long durations of cold periods provided favourable conditions for onshore gas hydrate stability zones at Mittelplate. Implementing these glacial dynamics into 2D basin modelling (PetroMod, IES, Aachen, Germany) of the Mittelplate oil field reveals five phases of gas hydrate stability at depths down to 750 m. The latest of these events occurred during the Weichselian about 20 kyr ago. The effect of the ice sheets on pore pressure in the subsurface strongly depends on the hydraulic boundary conditions at the ice base (e.g. frozen vs. temperate ice sheet base). Excess pore pressure in the reservoir of more than 10 MPa during ice overriding is possible and probable. The calculated temperature effect of the Pleistocene cooling on the Mittelplate reservoir is in the range of 3–7 °C. Even today temperature in the reservoir is still lowered by about 4 °C in comparison to pre-Pleistocene times. Despite the fact that a significant influence of glacial effects on petroleum generation can be ruled out at Mittelplate, we state that pT-effects in reservoirs related to glacial processes in formerly glaciated areas have been underestimated in the past.     

Authigenic carbonates from the eastern Black Sea as an archive for shallow gas hydrate dynamics – Results from the combination of CT imaging with mineralogical and stable isotope analyses

Authigenic carbonates associated with cold seeps provide valuable archives of changes in the long-term seepage activity. To investigate the role of shallow-buried hydrates on the seepage strength and fluid composition we analysed methane-derived carbonate precipitates from a high-flux hydrocarbon seepage area (“Batumi seep area”) located on the south-eastern Black Sea slope in ca. 850 m. In a novel approach, we combined computerized X-ray tomography (CT) with mineralogical and isotope geochemical methods to get additional insights into the three-dimensional internal structure of the carbonate build-ups.     

Open-system chemical behavior in deep Wilcox Group mudstones,Texas Gulf Coast,USA

Wilcox Group mudstones have been mechanically and geochemically transformed over a temperature range of 20–200 °C. Our research controlled for provenance and age by sampling from five wells, parallel to the paleodepositional axis, all within the Houston delta system. Across the sampled depths, mudstone porosity has been reduced from ∼25 to <10% and bulk mineralogical change as documented by quantitative X-ray diffraction includes decreases in quartz, K-feldspar and kaolinite content whereas illite + illite − smectite, chlorite, and plagioclase increase. These mineral transformations transfer elements at a scale of less than 1 mm from one mineralogical form to another, however, X-ray fluorescence data suggest that among major elements only Al₂O₃ and TiO₂ are fully conserved within the system (trace-element ZrO₂ is also conserved). K₂O has been added to and SiO₂ released from the Wilcox Group mudstones. Cathodoluminescence and secondary electron imaging did not find this SiO₂ locally precipitated. We, therefore, document an open-system geochemical behavior.     

Effect of atmospheric CO2 and solar activity on wind regime and water column stability in the major global upwelling areas

It is not clear whether global warming will favour or reduce global ocean phytoplankton productivity in coastal areas. Moreover, the relative contributions made by natural and/or anthropogenic factors to possible changes in phytoplankton productivity are not clear. As the relationship between primary production and alongshore wind forcing is well established for the Eastern Boundary Current (EBC) ecosystems, our aim is to determine whether the changes experienced over the last five decades (1958–2007) in atmospheric CO₂ and solar activity have been able to affect the wind regime and water column stability in the most biologically productive upwelling areas of California, Canary, Humboldt and Benguela. We approached the work by statistically studying the effect of solar activity and atmospheric CO₂ on surface alongshore wind stress and on water column stability. There was an increasing trend in wind stress and water column stability in all the upwelling areas over the period studied (with the single exception of stability in the California EBC system). The analysis of detrended series evidenced significant relationships between atmospheric CO₂ concentration and wind stress and water column stability in the coastal upwelling areas investigated. In addition, wind stress and stability data were found to be consistent, with negative linear relationships between wind stress and CO₂ in most of the sites in the Benguela, Canary and Humboldt regions associated, as expected, to positive relationships when water column stability is used as regressand. The results of the present study suggest that greenhouse gas forcing, independent of its well known general increasing trend, was able to decrease wind stress intensity and increase water column stability for the period 1958 to present in most of the sites of the four Eastern Boundary Ecosystems studied, with the one exception of the California region. Conversely, the impact of solar activity appeared to be quite low compared to the greenhouse gas forcing.     

Rational noncompliance and the liquidation of Northeast groundfish resources

The results of a 2007 survey of fishers, managers, scientists, and enforcement officials indicate that noncompliance is a significant problem in the Northeast multispecies groundfish (NEGF) fishery, as it has been for at least 20 years. The percent of total harvest taken illegally is estimated to be 12–24%, which is significantly higher than estimates of 6–14% in the 1980s. Thirty-seven percent of fishers, 61% of fishery managers and 80% of fishery enforcement staff believe that “the combined adverse impact of all violations on the health and manageability of fish resources” is significant, highly significant, or extremely significant. Many fishers believe that illegal fishing will prevent them from ever benefiting from stock rebuilding programs.     

An Experi mental Study on Wave-Induced Dynamic Stresses in Seabed

1 .IntroductionEvery year ,Taiwanis subjectedtotwo or three typhoonintrusions in average which always causedisasters . Most of the disasters which occur around the coastal zone are due to seabed instability andcoastal structure destruction caused bytyphoo…     

Multiyear trends of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index and temperature in the south of Krasnoyarsk Krai

It is found that the nonlinear positive Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) trend of mountain taiga in the south of Krasnoyarsk Krai has been negative since 1999–2000. A comparison with the boreal belt of northern Eurasia showed that, though still nonnegative, the positive trend has distinctly decreased to nearly a plateau. A trend analysis of radiation temperature of the surface revealed that the temperature shows a decreasing trend for the selected region of mountainous taiga and an increasing trend for northern Eurasia. We compared air-temperature data from the Yermakovskoe meteorological station to eliminate a preliminary data-processing error. Regression analysis demonstrated a fairly high degree of correlation. Also, we found a quite high degree of correlation between time series and trends of air temperature and NDVI. Trends in air temperature in northern Eurasia according to NCEP-DOE Reanalysis 2 data also confirm the trend found on the basis of satellite data.     

Observed and modelled tidal currents in the New Zealand region

Tidal currents derived from current meter measurements are compared with the output from a barotropic tidal model of the New Zealand region. For the semi‐diurnal constituents there was very good agreement for the M₂ tide and good agreement for the S₂ tide. For the diurnal constituents (K_l, O_l) it was found that as the amplitude of the constituents decreased so did both the model/observation agreement and the accuracy of the observed tidal ellipse parameters. Consequently it was not possible to decide whether differences arose through shortcomings in the model or in the data. However, the overall performance of the model as a prognostic tool for ocean tidal current simulation appears to be good.     

Effects of sediment on fish communities in East Cape streams,North Island,New Zealand

We examined the effects of sediment on fish communities at 38 sites in the East Cape region of New Zealand. Many streams in this region are subject to high sediment loads, a natural situation that has been exacerbated by the conversion of native forest to pasture. The fish community consisted of diadromous native species common throughout New Zealand that require access to and from the sea. We found that site altitude and distance inland were important factors in determining the abundance and composition of the fish community. We used four measures as indices of sediment load: suspended sediment concentration, median substrate size, substrate stability, and the ratio of the wetted width to the width of the active (non‐vegetated) stream channel. Although all indices were correlated, the ratio of wetted width to width of active channel was most closely related to fish abundance and diversity. Fish abundance and diversity reduced as sediment load increased among streams, with up to nine fish species in streams with low sediment loads and only two species in streams with high sediment loads. In‐stream habitat also varied with sediment load; as load increased, depth and substrate size decreased and velocity increased. These results suggest that activities that increase sediment loads in rivers will have a negative impact on native fish communities in New Zealand.