Interdecadal temperature variations in the North Pacific Central Mode Water simulated by an OGCM

The North Pacific Central Mode Water (CMW) is a water mass that forms in the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension (KOE) region with characteristic low potential vorticity. Recent studies have suggested that the CMW, as low potential vorticity water, plays an important role in the adjustment of the subtropical gyre and subsurface variability on decadal to interdecadal timescales. We have forced a realistic ocean general circulation model (OGCM) with observed wind stress and sea surface temperature (SST) forcing to investigate the decadal variations of the CMW. Associated with the large atmospheric changes after the mid-1970s climate regime shift, the upper thermocline experiences a cooling as negative SST anomalies in the central North Pacific are subducted and advected southward. In addition to this thermodynamic response, the CMW’s path shifts anomalously eastward in response to anomalous Ekman pumping. This eastward shift of the core of the CMW produces a lowering of the isotherms, and a consequent warming, on the path of the CMW core. This warming partially counteracts the cooling associated with subducted surface anomalies, and it may be responsible for the reduced temperature variations at the climatological position of the CMW when both anomalous wind and heat fluxes are given. Lateral induction across the sloping bottom of the winter mixed layer in the KOE is critical to the formation of the low potential vorticity CMW. Coarse resolution models, which are widely used in climate modeling, underestimate the horizontal gradient of the mixed layer depth and form only a weak CMW or none at all. We have conducted a coarse resolution experiment with the same OGCM, showing that the subsurface response is much reduced. In particular, there is no dynamic warming in the CMW and the thermodynamic response to the SST cooling dominates. The resultant total response differs substantially from that in the finer resolution run where a strong CMW forms. This sensitivity to the model resolution corroborates the important dynamical role that the CMW may play with its distinctive low potential vorticity character and calls for its improved simulation.     

A neutron activation analysis of iridium concentration in Yamato carbonaceous chondrite

Iridium concentration in extra-terrestrial bodies is an important quantity in relation to Ir-rich geological layers. Ir concentration of a Yamato carbonaceous chondrite (Y-793321) has been measured by a neutron activation method. The measurement yields a value (0.57 ± 0.06) g per gramme for the chondrite.     

A BTOP model to extend TOPMODEL for distributed hydrological simulation of large basins

Topography is a dominant factor in hillslope hydrology. TOPMODEL, which uses a topographical index derived from a simplified steady state assumption of mass balance and empirical equations of motion over a hillslope, has many advantages in this respect. Its use has been demonstrated in many small basins (catchment areas of the order of 2–500 km²) but not in large basins (catchment areas of the order of 10 000–100 000 km²). The objective of this paper is to introduce the Block‐wise TOPMODEL (BTOP) as an extension of the TOPMODEL concept in a grid based framework for distributed hydrological simulation of large river basins. This extension was made by redefining the topographical index by using an effective contributing area af(a) (0?f(a)?1) per unit grid cell area instead of the upstream catchment area per unit contour length and introducing a concept of mean groundwater travel distance. Further the transmissivity parameter T₀ was replaced by a groundwater dischargeability D which can provide a link between hill slope hydrology and macro hydrology. The BTOP model uses all the original TOPMODEL equations in their basic form. The BTOP model has been used as the core hydrological module of an integrated distributed hydrological model YHyM with advanced modules of precipitation, evapotranspiration, flow routing etc. Although the model has been successfully applied to many catchments around the world since 1999, there has not been a comprehensive theoretical basis presented in such applications. In this paper, an attempt is made to address this issue highlighted with an example application using the Mekong basin. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Constraining paleo-latitude of a biogeographic boundary in mid-Panthalassa: Fusuline province shift on the Late Guadalupian (Permian) migrating seamount

The Guadalupian paleo-atoll limestone (Iwato Formation) in SW Japan was primarily formed in low-latitude mid-Panthalassa and was later tectonically accreted to South China (Japan) margin during the Jurassic. The present biostratigraphic study clarified that the Iwato Formation consists of 5 biostratigraphical intervals; i.e. four fusuline assemblage zones (Assemblage zones 1 to 4) and a barren interval on the top. Assemblage zones 1 to 4 correspond to the Neoschwagerina craticulifera Zone, N. margaritae Zone, Yabeina globosa Zone, and Lepidolina multiseptata Zone of the conventional Tethyan fusuline stratigraphy, respectively. The present study newly clarified the following significant aspects of paleobiogeography of the Permian fusulines as to the extinction of large-tested taxa in the latest Guadalupian. 1) The long unknown stratigraphic relationship was documented for the first time between the Yabeina-dominant interval and the overlying Lepidolina-dominant one within a single limestone unit. 2) The occurrence of Lepidolina cf. kumaensis Kanmera, the unique last runner of large-tested fusuine, was detected for the first time in mid-oceanic paleo-atoll limestones. 3) With respect to the northbound migration history of the paleo-seamount capped by the Iwato Formation, the development of the two coeval fusuline biogeographic territories in the low-latitude Panthalassa, i.e., the Yabeina territory on the south and the Lepidolina territory on the north, was confirmed. 4) The paleo-latitude of the biogeographic boundary between the Yabeina and Lepidolina territories is constrained around 12° in the southern hemisphere on the basis of the latest geomagnetic data from the same limestone. This new approach utilizing biostratigraphy on ancient migrating seamounts coupled with geomagnetic paleo-latitude data is applicable to other cases in different time-space co-ordinates and of other fossil groups for constraining position of ancient biogeographic boundaries within lost oceanic domains of deep past.     

Assessment of flood hazard,vulnerability and risk of mid-eastern Dhaka using DEM and 1D hydrodynamic model

Floods are regular feature in rapidly urbanizing Dhaka, the capital city of Bangladesh. It is observed that about 60% of the eastern Dhaka regularly goes under water every year in monsoon due to lack of flood protection. Experience gathered from past devastating floods shows that, besides structural approach, non-structural approach such as flood hazard map and risk map is effective tools for reducing flood damages. In this paper, assessment of flood hazard by developing a flood hazard map for mid-eastern Dhaka (37.16 km²) was carried out by 1D hydrodynamic simulation on the basis of digital elevation model (DEM) data from Shuttle Radar Topography Mission and the hydrologic field-observed data for 32 years (1972–2004). As the topography of the area has been considerably changed due to rapid land-filling by land developers which was observed in recent satellite image (DigitalGlobe image; Date of imagery: 7th March 2007), the acquired DEM data were modified to represent the current topography. The inundation simulation was conducted using hydrodynamic program HEC-RAS for flood of 100-year return period. The simulation has revealed that the maximum depth is 7.55 m at the southeastern part of that area and affected area is more than 50%. A flood hazard map was prepared according to the simulation result using the software ArcGIS. Finally, to assess the flood risk of that area, a risk map was prepared where risk was defined as the product of hazard (i.e., depth of inundation) and vulnerability (i.e., the exposure of people or assets to flood). These two maps should be helpful in raising awareness of inhabitants and in assigning priority for land development and for emergency preparedness including aid and relief operations in high-risk areas in the future.     

Grey model for prediction of pore pressure change

Prediction of pore pressure change is an effective tool to properly monitor changes of groundwater flow caused by any construction work in fractured rock mass. Due to the complexity of hydrogeologic conditions in fractured rock and the scale of interest of the study domain, prediction of pore pressure changes by numerical models has not been precise enough to meet monitoring requirements. Considering these problems, a Grey model that combines the finite element method (FEM) and the artificial neural network (ANN) was developed for more precise prediction of pore pressure changes. In this model, several patterns of pore pressure changes were calculated by FEM for a simplified hydrogeologic conceptual model at a scale smaller than a representative elementary volume. The ANN model was then constructed to predict the actual pore pressure change using these FEM results as inputs. This modeling approach was adopted to predict the pore pressure changes caused by the construction of shafts of Mizunami Underground Research Laboratory (MIU), Japan. From the results obtained for MIU, it can be concluded that the proposed Grey model is a powerful tool for monitoring of pore pressure changes.     

Long‐term trend of precipitation in China and its association with the El Niño–southern oscillation

The plausible long‐term trend of precipitation in China and its association with El Niño–southern oscillation (ENSO) are investigated by using non‐parametric techniques. It is concluded that a greater number of decreasing trends are observed than are expected to occur by chance. Geographically, the decreasing trend was concentrated in most parts of China, including the Songliao River, Hai River, Huai River, Yellow River, Zhujiang River, and southern part of the Yangtze River basins, whereas an increasing trend appeared primarily in the western and middle parts of China, mainly including the Inland River basin, and the northern part of the Yangtze River basins. Monthly mean precipitation for the summer and early autumn months generally decreased, with the greatest decrease occurring in August. The precipitation in spring from January to April and later autumn, including September and October, tended to increase. The teleconnection between precipitation and ENSO has been investigated by using the non‐parametric Kendall's τ. The correlation coefficients between the southern oscillation index (SOI) and precipitation show the areas with positive or negative associations. Approximately 20% of the stations exhibit statistically significant correlations between SOI and precipitation, of which 70% show a negative correlation, with most of them appearing in southeast China and several appearing in northwest and northeast China. Similar regional patterns are also observed when the precipitation records are further subdivided into El Niño, La Niña, and neutral periods. Statistical tests for the three kinds of time series were carried out using the non‐parametric Wilcoxon rank‐sum test, and it is noted that the stations with significant differences in precipitation averages are mainly marked in the Yellow River basin and south China. The frequencies of below‐ and above‐average precipitation that occurred during the El Niño, La Niña, and neutral periods are estimated as well. The result shows that greater precipitation may be associated with El Niño episodes in south China, but drought may easily occur during El Niño episodes in the Yellow River basin. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Extinction curves expected in young galaxies

We investigate the extinction curves of young galaxies in which dust is supplied from Type II supernovae (SNe II) and/or pair instability supernovae (PISNe). We adopt Nozawa et al. (2003) for compositions and size distribution of grains formed in SNe II and PISNe. We find that the extinction curve is quite sensitive to internal metal mixing in supernovae (SNe). The extinction curves predicted from the mixed SNe are dominated by SiO₂ and are characterized by a steep rise from infrared to ultraviolet (UV). The dust from unmixed SNe shows a shallower extinction curve, because of the contribution from large-sized (∼0.1 μm) Si grains. However, the progenitor mass is important in unmixed SNe II: if the progenitor mass is smaller than  ∼20 M_⊙  , the extinction curve is flat in UV; otherwise, the extinction curve rises towards the short wavelength. The extinction curve observed in a high-redshift quasar  ( z = 6.2)  favours the dust production by unmixed SNe II. We also provide some useful observational quantities, so that our model might be compared with future high- z extinction curves.     

Long‐term trend analysis for precipitation in Asian Pacific FRIEND river basins

In order to analyse the long‐term trend of precipitation in the Asian Pacific FRIEND region, records from 30 river basins to represent the large range of climatic and hydrological characteristics in the study area are selected. The long‐term trend in precipitation time series and its association with the southern oscillation index (SOI) series are investigated. Application of the nonparametric Mann–Kendall test for 30 precipitation time series has shown that only four of these 30 time series have a long‐term trend at the 5% level of significance. Nevertheless, most of the records tend to decrease over the last several decades. The dataset is further divided geographically into northern, middle, and southern zones, with 20°N and 20°S latitude as the dividing lines. The middle zone has the greatest variation and the southern zone the least variation over the past century. Also, the southern zone has greater variation during the past 30 years. The association between precipitation and SOI is investigated by dividing the precipitation records of each station into El Niño, La Niña, and neutral periods. The Wilcoxon rank‐sum test showed that differences in precipitation for the three classes were most marked in the southern zone of the study area. The frequencies of below‐ and above‐average precipitation for El Niño, La Niña, and neutral periods are estimated for the 30 precipitation time series as well. The results show that the frequencies of precipitation under each set of conditions, with lower precipitation generally associated with El Niño periods in the southern zone. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Song Hong (Red River) delta evolution related to millennium-scale Holocene sea-level changes

The Song Hong (Red River) delta occurs on the northwest coast of the South China Sea. Its evolution in response to Holocene sea-level changes was clarified on the basis of sedimentary facies and 14 radiocarbon dates from the 40 m long Duy Tien core from the delta plain, and using previously reported geological, geomorphological, and archaeological data. The delta prograded into the drowned valley as a result of early Holocene inundation from 9 to 6 cal. kyr BP, as sea-level rise decelerated. The sea-level highstand at +2–3 m from 6 to 4 cal. kyr BP allowed widespread mangrove development on the delta plain and the formation of marine notches in the Ha Long Bay and Ninh Binh areas. During sea-level lowering after 4 cal. kyr BP, the former delta plain emerged as a marine terrace, and the delta changed into the present tide- and wave-influenced delta with accompanying beach ridges. Delta morphology, depositional pattern, and sedimentary facies are closely related to Holocene sea-level changes. In particular, falling sea level at 4 cal. kyr BP had a major impact on the evolution of the Song Hong delta, and is considered to be linked to climate changes.