The U.S. National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program: A Successful State–Federal Partnership

The U.S. National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) is a State/Federal partnership created to reduce tsunami hazards along U.S. coastlines. Established in 1996, NTHMP coordinates the efforts of five Pacific States: Alaska, California, Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington with the three Federal agencies responsible for tsunami hazard mitigation: the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). In the 7 years of the program it has, 1. established a tsunami forecasting capability for the two tsunami warning centers through the combined use of deep ocean tsunami data and numerical models; 2. upgraded the seismic network enabling the tsunami warning centers to locate and size earthquakes faster and more accurately; 3. produced 22 tsunami inundation maps covering 113 coastal communities with a population at risk of over a million people; 4. initiated a program to develop tsunami-resilient communities through awareness, education, warning dissemination, mitigation incentives, coastal planning, and construction guidelines; 5. conducted surveys that indicate a positive impact of the programs activities in raising tsunami awareness. A 17-member Steering Group consisting of representatives from the five Pacific States, NOAA, FEMA, USGS, and the National Science Foundation (NSF) guides NTHMP. The success of the program has been the result of a personal commitment by steering group members that has leveraged the total Federal funding by contributions from the States and Federal Agencies at a ratio of over six matching dollars to every NTHMP dollar. Twice yearly meetings of the steering group promote communication between scientists and emergency managers, and among the State and Federal agencies. From its initiation NTHMP has been based on the needs of coastal communities and emergency managers and has been results driven because of the cycle of year-to-year funding for the first 5 years. A major impact of the program occurred on 17 November 2003, when an Alaskan tsunami warning was canceled because real-time, deep ocean tsunami data indicated the tsunami would be non-damaging. Canceling this warning averted an evacuation in Hawaii, avoiding a loss in productivity valued at $68M.     

Climatological responses of winter precipitation in Turkey to variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation during the period 1930–2001

Summary Climatological responses of winter (DJFM) precipitation at 78 stations of Turkey to variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) were investigated for the period 1930–2001. The analysis was performed with respect to relationships between precipitation and three different NAO indices (NAOIs) and composite precipitation changes corresponding to the extreme phases of the NAOIs, and individual wet conditions and drought events linked to the extreme NAOI events. Main conclusions of the study can be evaluated as follows:(a) The Ponta Delgada–Reykjavik (PD–R) NAOI is superior among the three NAOIs compared, followed by the Lisbon–Stykkisholmur/Reykjavik NAOI, with regards to its ability to control year-to-year variability in winter precipitation series and composite precipitation conditions corresponding to the extreme NAOI phases in Turkey. (b) Variability of winter precipitation at most stations in Turkey is significantly correlated with variability of the three NAOIs. Negative relationships are stronger over the Marmara, the Mediterranean Transition and the Continental Central Anatolia regions, and the Aegean part of the Mediterranean region. (c) Composite precipitation analysis exhibited an apparent opposite anomaly pattern at the majority of stations between the weak and strong phases of the NAOIs. Composite precipitation means corresponding to the weak NAOI phase are explained mostly by wetter than long-term average conditions, whereas composite precipitation responses to the strong NAOI phase mostly produce drier than long-term average conditions. (d) Composite wet (dry) conditions during the weak (strong) phase of the NAOI are significant at about 32% (69%) of 78 stations for the PD–R NAOI, and about 38% (55%) for the L–S(R) NAOI. The dry signals from the strong NAO phases are stronger and show a larger spatial coherence over Turkey. The significant signals are evident in the west, centre and south of the country. (g) Widespread severe droughts in 1943, 1957, 1973, 1974, 1983, 1989, 1990, 1992, 1993 and 1994, and widespread strong wet conditions in 1940–1942, 1956, 1963, 1966, 1969 and 1970 were linked to the extreme high- and low-index events of at least two NAOIs, respectively.     

Refining the timing of eclogite metamorphism: a geochemical,petrological, Sm-Nd and U-Pb case study from the Pohorje Mountains,Slovenia (Eastern Alps)

High-pressure metamorphism in the Pohorje Mountains of Slovenia (Austroalpine unit, Eastern Alps) affected N-MORB type metabasic and metapelitic lithologies. Thermodynamic calculations and equilibrium phase diagrams of kyanite–phengite-bearing eclogites reveal PT conditions of >2.1 GPa at T<750°C, but within the stability field of quartz. Metapelitic eclogite country rocks contain the assemblage garnet + phengite + kyanite + quartz, for which calculated peak pressure conditions are in good agreement with results obtained from eclogite samples. The eclogites contain a single population of spherical zircon with a low Th/U ratio. Combined constraints on the age of metamorphism come from U/Pb zircon as well as garnet–whole rock and mineral–mineral Sm-Nd analyses from eclogites. A coherent cluster of single zircon analyses yields a ²⁰⁶Pb/²³⁸U age of 90.7±1.0 Ma that is in good agreement with results from Sm-Nd garnet–whole rock regression of 90.7±3.9 and 90.1±2.0 Ma (εNd: +8) for two eclogite samples. The agreement between U-Pb and Sm-Nd age data strongly suggests an age of approximately 90 Ma for the pressure peak of the eclogites in the Pohorje Mountains. The presence of garnet, omphacite and quartz inclusions in unfractured zircon indicates high-pressure rather than ultrahigh pressure conditions. The analysed metapelite sample yields a Sm-Nd garnet–whole rock scatterchron age of 97±15 Ma. These data probably support a single P-T loop for mafic and pelitic lithologies of the Pohorje area and a late Cretaceous high-pressure event that affected the entire easternmost Austroalpine basement including the Koralpe and Saualpe eclogite type locality in the course of the complex collision of the Apulian microplate and Europe.     

Glassy orthopyroxene granodiorites of the Pannonian Basin: tracers of ultra-high-temperature deep-crustal anatexis triggered by Tertiary basaltic volcanism

Glassy orthopyroxene granodiorite-tonalite (named pincinite after type locality) was described from basaltic lapilli tuffs of the Pliocene maar near Pinciná village in the Slovakian part of the Pannonian Basin. Two pincinite types exhibit a qualitatively similar mineral composition (quartz, An_20–55 plagioclase, intergranular silicic glass with orthopyroxene and ilmenite, ±K-feldspar), but strongly different redox potential and formation PT conditions. Peraluminous pincinite is reduced (6–7% of total iron as Fe³⁺ in corundum-normative intergranular dacitic glass) and contains ilmenite with 8–10 mol% Fe₂O₃ and orthopyroxene dominated by ferrosilite. High-density (up to 0.85 g/cm³) primary CO₂ inclusions with minor H₂, CH₄, H₂S, CO and N₂ (<2 mol% total) are present in Qtz and Plg. Equilibrium PT conditions inferred from the intergranular Opx–Ilm–Glass assemblage and fluid density correspond to 1,170±50°C, 5.6±0.4 kbar, respectively. Metaluminous pincinite is more oxidised (25–27% of total iron as Fe³⁺ in diopside-normative intergranular glass of rhyolite–trachyte–dacite composition) and contains Fe₂O₃-rich ilmenite (17–29 mol%) associated with enstatite. Fluid inclusions are composed of CO₂–H₂O mixtures with up to 38 mol% H₂O. Raman spectroscopy revealed H₂S along with dominant CO₂ in the carbonic phase. Equilibrium PT parameters for the intergranular Opx–Ilm–Glass assemblage correspond to 740±15°C, 2.8±0.1 kbar, respectively. Reducing gas species (<2 mol% total) in the CO₂-inclusions of the peraluminous pincinite resulted from hydrogen diffusion due to fH₂ gradient imposed during decrease of redox potential from the log fO₂ values near QFM during Qtz + Plg growth, to QFM-2 incidental to the superimposed Opx + Ilm assemblage in the intergranular melt. The decrease in oxygen fugacity was recorded also in the metaluminous pincinite, where log fO₂ values changed from ~QFM + 2.6 to QFM + 0.4, but hydrogen diffusion did not occur. Absence of OH-bearing minerals, major and trace element abundances (e.g. REE 300–320, Nb 55–57, Th 4–31, Zr 240–300 ppm, FeO_tot/MgO up to 11), and Sr–O isotope ratios in the pincinites are diagnostic of high-temperature anorogenic magmas originated by dehydration melting of biotite in quartz-feldspathoid crust (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr>0.705–0.706, ¹⁸O>9 V-SMOW) around alkali basalt reservoir in depths between 17 and 20 km, and around late stage derivatives of the basalt fractionation, intruding the crust up to depths of 10–11 km. Low water activity in the pincinite parental melt was caused by CO₂-flux from the Tertiary basaltic reservoirs and intrusions. The anatexis leads to generation of a melt-depleted granulitic crust beneath the Pannonian Basin, and the pincinites are interpreted as equivalents of igneous charnockites and enderbites quenched at temperatures above solidus and unaffected by sub-solidus re-equilibration and metamorphic overprint.     

Application of lead stable isotopes to the Guadiamar Aquifer study after the mine tailings spill in Aznalcóllar (SW Spain)

On 25 April 1998 the tailings dam of the Aznalcóllar mine burst, a great quantity of pyrite waste sludge and acid water was spilled reaching the vicinity of the Doñana National Park. In surface and ground water samples taken a week after dam breaking, metals, trace elements and Pb isotopic ratios (²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁷Pb and ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁶Pb) were analysed. In September 1998 a second sampling survey was carried out. The surface waters have a similar isotopic composition as the lead contained in the pyrite from the Aznalcóllar mine. The polluted groundwater of the Guadiamar aquifer also shows the influence of the mining origin of the lead. Lead isotope ratios (²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁷Pb and ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁶Pb) in the groundwater of the Almonte-Marismas are very low and they differ clearly from the rest of groundwater samples. A further group of wells has a lead isotope composition intermediate between the Aznalcóllar mine and the atmospheric aerosols of the Iberian Peninsula.     

Inverse problem in hydrogeology

The state of the groundwater inverse problem is synthesized. Emphasis is placed on aquifer characterization, where modelers have to deal with conceptual model uncertainty (notably spatial and temporal variability), scale dependence, many types of unknown parameters (transmissivity, recharge, boundary conditions, etc.), nonlinearity, and often low sensitivity of state variables (typically heads and concentrations) to aquifer properties. Because of these difficulties, calibration cannot be separated from the modeling process, as it is sometimes done in other fields. Instead, it should be viewed as one step in the process of understanding aquifer behavior. In fact, it is shown that actual parameter estimation methods do not differ from each other in the essence, though they may differ in the computational details. It is argued that there is ample room for improvement in groundwater inversion: development of user-friendly codes, accommodation of variability through geostatistics, incorporation of geological information and different types of data (temperature, occurrence and concentration of isotopes, age, etc.), proper accounting of uncertainty, etc. Despite this, even with existing codes, automatic calibration facilitates enormously the task of modeling. Therefore, it is contended that its use should become standard practice.

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Resumen Se sintetiza el estado del problema inverso en aguas subterráneas. El énfasis se ubica en la caracterización de acuíferos, donde los modeladores tienen que enfrentar la incertidumbre del modelo conceptual (principalmente variabilidad temporal y espacial), dependencia de escala, muchos tipos de parámetros desconocidos (transmisividad, recarga, condiciones limitantes, etc), no linealidad, y frecuentemente baja sensibilidad de variables de estado (típicamente presiones y concentraciones) a las propiedades del acuífero. Debido a estas dificultades, no puede separarse la calibración de los procesos de modelado, como frecuentemente se hace en otros campos. En su lugar, debe de visualizarse como un paso en el proceso de entendimiento del comportamiento del acuífero. En realidad, se muestra que los métodos reales de estimación de parámetros no difieren uno del otro en lo esencial, aunque sí pueden diferir en los detalles computacionales. Se discute que existe amplio espacio para la mejora del problema inverso en aguas subterráneas: desarrollo de códigos amigables al usuario, acomodamiento de variabilidad a través de geoestadística, incorporación de información geológica y diferentes tipos de datos (temperatura, presencia y concentración de isótopos, edad, etc), explicación apropiada de incertidumbre, etc. A pesar de esto, aún con los códigos existentes, la calibración automática facilita enormemente la tarea de modelado. Por lo tanto, se sostiene que su uso debería de convertirse en práctica standard.

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Résumé Létat du problème inverse des eaux souterraines est synthétisé. Laccent est placé sur la caractérisation de laquifère, où les modélisateurs doivent jouer avec lincertitude des modèles conceptuels (notamment la variabilité spatiale et temporelle), les facteurs déchelle, plusieurs inconnues sur différents paramètres (transmissivité, recharge, conditions aux limites, etc.), la non linéarité, et souvent la sensibilité de plusieurs variables détat (charges hydrauliques, concentrations) des propriétés de laquifère. A cause de ces difficultés, le calibrage ne peut être séparé du processus de modélisation, comme cest le cas dans dautres cas de figure. Par ailleurs, il peut être vu comme une des étapes dans le processus de détermination du comportement de laquifère. Il est montré que les méthodes dévaluation des paramètres actuels ne diffèrent pas si ce nest dans les détails des calculs informatiques. Il est montré quil existe une large panoplie de techniques d ‹inversion : codes de calcul utilisables par tout-un-chacun, accommodation de la variabilité via la géostatistique, incorporation dinformations géologiques et de différents types de données (température, occurrence, concentration en isotopes, âge, etc.), détermination de lincertitude. Vu ces développements, la calibration automatique facilite énormément la modélisation. Par ailleurs, il est souhaitable que son utilisation devienne une pratique standardisée.

     

Orbital-scale record of the late Cenomanian–Turonian oceanic anoxic event (OAE-2) in the Tarfaya Basin (Morocco)

High sedimentation rates (up to 12 cm/kyear) of laminated organic carbon-rich biogenic limestones in the Tarfaya Basin provide an unusually high (millennial) resolution record of the late Cenomanian oceanic anoxic event (OAE-2). The global positive carbon-isotope excursion across the Cenomanian–Turonian corresponds to 11 light/dark sedimentary cycles. We interpret these cycles as a response to orbital obliquity variation and estimate the duration of the complete excursion as 440 kyear or one long eccentricity cycle. On this timescale, the main increase in ¹³C values occurred over a short time interval of less than 20 kyear in the late Cenomanian and reached a first maximum approximately 15 kyear prior to the bulk (mainly coccoliths) ¹⁸O-derived sea surface maximum temperature that occurs coeval to the extinction of Rotalipora cushmani. Organic carbon-accumulation rates follow obliquity cycles, reaching a maximum approximately 10 kyear after the last occurrence of R. cushmani, then slowly decreasing during the early Turonian. Thus, the maximum temperature and the maximum organic carbon accumulation in the Tarfaya Basin lagged by at least 15 kyear behind the global carbon-isotope shift and a proposed reduction of atmospheric CO₂ content. The climate change across the Cenomanian/Turonian boundary probably occurred independent of CO₂ levels and may have been controlled by different greenhouse gases (water vapour and methane) and changes in ocean circulation (i.e., opening of the Equatorial Atlantic gateway)     

‘Surface Drag in the Arctic Marginal Sea-ice Zone: A Comparison of Different Parameterisation Concepts’

Two parameterisation schemes for the turbulent surface fluxes and drag coefficients over the Arctic marginal sea-ice zone (MIZ) are (further) developed, and their results are compared with each other. Although the schemes are based on different principles (flux averaging and parameter averaging), the resulting drag coefficients differ only slightly in the case of neutral and stable stratification. For unstable stratification and sea-ice conditions being typical for the north-eastern Fram Strait, the drag coefficients resulting from the parameter-averaging concept are 5–10% larger than those of the flux-averaging concept. At a sea-ice concentration of 45%, the parameter-averaging method overestimates the heat fluxes by a factor of 1.2. An inclusion in the schemes of form drag caused by floe edges and ridges has a much larger effect on the drag coefficient, and on the momentum fluxes, than the choice between the parameter-averaging or flux-averaging methods. Based on sensitivity studies with the flux-averaging scheme, a simple formula for the effective drag coefficient above the Arctic MIZ is derived. It reduces the computational costs of the more complex parameterisations and could also be used in larger scale models. With this simple formula, the effective drag coefficient can be calculated as a function of the sea-ice concentration and skin drag coefficients for water and ice floes. The results obtained with this parameterisation differ only slightly from those using the more complex schemes. Finally, it is shown that in the MIZ, drag coefficients for sea-ice models may differ significantly from the effective drag coefficients used in atmospheric models.     

‘A Case Study on a Polar Cold Air Outbreak over Fram Strait using a Mesoscale Weather Prediction Model’

The mesoscale weather prediction model ’Lokal-Modell’ (LM) of the Deutscher Wetterdienst is applied to the situation of an Arctic cold air outbreak in the Fram Strait region in April 1998. Observations are available from a flight along 5⁰E carried out during the ARTIST campaign. Initial and time-dependent boundary data for the simulation are taken from a larger scale operational model system. Using the standard configuration of LM, the simulation reproduced the propagation of cold air and the characteristic structure of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) in fair agreement with the observations. However, a detailed comparison revealed three basic problems. Firstly, there is evidence that the available data on sea-ice conditions were insufficient approximations to the true state for several reasons. A modification of the sea-ice data towards observations revealed that parts of the discrepancies were due to the original sea-ice data. Secondly, a control run with the model in its standard configuration shows an insufficient warming of the ABL downstream of the ice edge due to underestimation of surface heat fluxes. A simple modification of the approach for the scalar roughness length resulted in the strongest benefit, while comparative studies showed only a slight sensitivity to different types of parametrisation of turbulent mixing or the inclusion of an additional moist convection parametrisation. Thirdly, in all the simulations the deepening of the convective ABL downstream of the ice edge is weaker than observed. This may be partly due to the thermal stratification above the ABL in the analysis data, which is more stable than observed; but it may also be a hint to the fact that processes near the inversion are insufficiently parametrised in mesoscale models with resolutions as used in LM. The simulated cloud layer in the convective ABL is similar to that observed with respect to condensate content, a sharply defined cloud top, a diffuse lower bound, and continuous light precipitation.     

Historical Climatology In Europe – The State Of The Art

This paper discusses the state of European research in historical climatology. This field of science and an overview of its development are described in detail. Special attention is given to the documentary evidence used for data sources, including its drawbacks and advantages. Further, methods and significant results of historical-climatological research, mainly achieved since 1990, are presented. The main focus concentrates on data, methods, definitions of the “Medieval Warm Period” and the “Little Ice Age”, synoptic interpretation of past climates, climatic anomalies and natural disasters, and the vulnerability of economies and societies to climate as well as images and social representations of past weather and climate. The potential of historical climatology for climate modelling research is discussed briefly. Research perspectives in historical climatology are formulated with reference to data, methods, interdisciplinarity and impacts.