Diagnostics of subseasonal prediction biases of the Asian summer monsoon by the NCEP climate forecast system

Biases of subseasonal prediction of the Asian summer monsoon are diagnosed using daily data from the hindcasts of 45-day integrations by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System version 2. The retrospective forecasts often show apparent systematic biases, which are mostly represented by the underestimation of the whole Asian monsoon. Biases depend not only on lead time, but also on the stage of monsoon evolution. An abrupt turning point of bias development appears around late June and early July, when ensemble spread and bias growth of winds and precipitation show a significant change over the northwestern Pacific (NWP) and the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) region. The abrupt turning of bias development of winds, precipitation, and surface temperature is also captured by the first two modes of multivariate empirical orthogonal function analysis. Several features appear associated with the abrupt change in bias development: the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) begins its first northward jump and the surface temperature over the Tibetan Plateau commences a transition from warm bias to cold bias, and a reversal of surface temperature biases occurs in the eastern tropical Indian Ocean and the SASM region. The shift of WPSH position and the transition of surface thermal bias show close relationships with the formation of bias centers in winds and precipitation. The rapid growth in bias due to the strong internal atmospheric variability during short leads seems to mainly account for the weak WPSH and SASM in the model. However, at certain stages, particularly for longer-lead predictions, the biases of slowly varying components may also play an important role in bias development of winds and precipitation.     

Measurement of radon exhalation rate in various building materials and soil samples

Indoor radon is considered as one of the potential dangerous radioactive elements. Common building materials and soil are the major source of this radon gas in the indoor environment. In the present study, the measurement of radon exhalation rate in the soil and building material samples of Una and Hamirpur districts of Himachal Pradesh has been done with solid state alpha track detectors, LR-115 type-II plastic track detectors. The radon exhalation rate for the soil samples varies from 39.1 to 91.2 mBq kg^?1 h^?1 with a mean value 59.7 mBq kg^?1 h^?1. Also the radium concentration of the studied area is found and it varies from 30.6 to 51.9 Bq kg^?1 with a mean value 41.6 Bq kg^?1. The exhalation rate for the building material samples varies from 40.72 (sandstone) to 81.40 mBq kg^?1 h^?1 (granite) with a mean value of 59.94 mBq kg^?1 h^?1.     

Quantification of LST and CO2 levels using Landsat-8 thermal bands on urban environment

Land surface temperature (LST) is an important aspect in global to regional change studies, for control of climate change and balancing of high temperature. Urbanization is one of the influencing factors increasing land surface and atmospheric temperature, by the emission of greenhouse gases (e.g. CO₂, NO and methane). In the present study, LST was derived from Landsat-8 of multitemporal data sets to analyse the spatial structure of the urban thermal environment in relation to the urban surface characteristics and land use–land cover (LULC). LST is influenced by the greenhouse gases i.e. CO₂ plays an important role in increasing the earth’s surface temperature. In order to provide the evidence of influence of CO₂ on LST, the relationship between LST, air temperature and CO₂ was analysed. Landsat-8 satellite has two thermal bands, 10 and 11. These bands were used to accurately to calculate the temperature over the study area. Results showed that the strength of correlation between ground monitoring data and satellite data was high. Based on correlation values of each month April (R² = 0.994), May (R² = 0.297) and June (R² = 0.934), observed results show that band 10 was significantly correlating with air temperature. Relationship between LST and CO₂ levels were obtained from linear regression analysis. band 11 was correlating significantly with CO₂ values in each of the months April (R² = 0.217), May (R² = 0.914) and June, (R² = 0.934), because band 11 is closer to the 15-micron band of CO₂. From the results, it was observed that band 10 can be used for calculating air temperature and band 11 can be used for estimation of greenhouse gases.     

Static deformation of two welded monoclinic elastic half-spaces due to a long inclined strike-slip fault

Static deformation of two monoclinic elastic half-spaces in welded contact due to a long inclined strike-slip fault situated in one of the half-spaces is studied analytically and numerically. Closed-form algebraic expressions for the displacement at any point of the medium are obtained. The variation of the displacement at the interface with the horizontal distance from the fault is studied. The effect of anisotropy on the displacement field is examined. It is found that while the anisotropy of the source half-space has a significant effect on the displacement at the interface, the anisotropy of the other half-space has only a marginal effect.     

Geothermal energy potential of Tulsishyam thermal springs of Gujarat,India

Tulsishyam thermal springs are located in the Saurashtra region of Gujarat, India with discharge temperatures varying from 39 to 42 °C. The pH of these thermal springs varies from 7.1 to 7.4, indicating neutral character. Though these thermal springs propagate through the near surface layer of Deccan basalt, detailed geochemical analysis of the thermal waters using Piper diagram suggests that the water is interacting with the granitic basement rock. Silica and cation geothermometry estimates have reservoir temperature in the range of 138 to 207 °C categorizing it into a low to moderate enthalpy geothermal system. Furthermore, the area has high heat flow values of 53–90 mW/m² because of shallow Moho depth. The prevailing conditions suggest that the geothermal energy can potentially be exploited through an enhanced geothermal system (EGS). The study also indicates different mineral phases that may precipitate out of water during exploitation of geothermal energy and it should be taken into account while designing an EGS for the area.     

Effects of historical and projected land use/cover change on runoff and sediment yield in the Netravati river basin,Western Ghats,India

In this study, the effects of changes in historical and projected land use land cover (LULC) on monthly streamflow and sediment yield for the Netravati river basin in the Western Ghats of India are explored using land use maps from six time periods (1972, 1979, 1991, 2000, 2012, and 2030) and the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT). The LULC for 2030 is projected using the land change modeller with the assumption of normal growth. The sensitivity analysis, model calibration, and validation indicated that the SWAT model could reasonably simulate streamflow and sediment yield in the river basin. The results showed that the spatial extent of the LULC classes of urban (1.80–9.96%), agriculture (31.38–55.75%), and water bodies (1.48–2.66%) increased, whereas that of forest (53.04–27.03%), grassland (11.17–4.41%), and bare land (1.09–0.16%) decreased from 1972 to 2030. The streamflow increased steadily (7.88%) with changes in LULC, whereas the average annual sediment yield decreased (0.028%) between 1972 and 1991 and increased later (0.029%) until 2012. However, it may increase by 0.43% from 2012 to 2030. The results indicate that LULC changes in urbanization and agricultural intensification have contributed to the increase in runoff, amounting to 428.65 and 58.67 mm, respectively, and sediment yield, amounting to 348 and 43 ton/km², respectively, in the catchment area from 1972 to 2030. The proposed methodology can be applied to other river basins for which temporal digital LULC maps are available for better water resource management plans.     

An analytical source function for a coupled hybrid wave model

An analytical form for the source function is formulated by comparing the fetch-limited approximation of the Ocean Wave Transport equation and the empirical equation for the fetch-dependent wave forecast nomograms. The source function thus generated has been utilised in the numerical model based on Toba’s formulation of wave transport equation and tested for the seas around the Indian subcontinent (5°S to 25°N latitude; 45°E to 100°E longitude). The grid averaged hindcast wave heights are found to be moderately matching with the GEOSAT altimeter measured significant wave heights of the 1987–1989 period, particularly for waves higher than 1 meter.     

Variations in wave direction estimated using first and second order Fourier coefficients

In most design applications such as alignment of the berthing structure and breakwater alignment, it becomes necessary to determine the direction of design wave. There are two different approaches to determine wave direction. One involves the use of first order Fourier coefficients (mean wave direction) while the other uses second order Fourier coefficients (principal wave direction). Both the average wave direction over the entire frequency range (0.03–0.58 Hz) and the direction corresponding to the peak frequency are used in practice. In the present study, comparison is made on wave directions estimated based on first and second order Fourier coefficients using data collected at four locations in the west and east coasts of India. Study shows that at all locations, the mean and principal wave directions for frequencies ranging from 0.07 to 0.25 Hz (±0.5 times peak frequency) co-vary with a correlation coefficient of 0.99 but at lower and higher frequencies, difference between the parameters is large. Average difference between the mean wave direction at peak frequency and the average over the frequency related to spectral energy more than 20% of maximum value is less, around 13°. Study shows that average difference in the sea and swell directions is around 39°.     

Swelling behaviour of expansive soil treated with fly ash–GGBS based binder

In this article, the potential of a binder developed by admixing fly ash and ground granulated blast furnace slag (GGBS) to stabilise expansive soils is evaluated. Laboratory tests included determination of free swell index, swell potential and swelling pressure tests of the soil/binder mixtures at different mixing ratio. The test results showed decrease in the swelling behaviour of the soil with increase in binder content. The percent swell–time relationship was observed to fit the hyperbolic curves enabling us to predict the ultimate percent swell from few initial test results. Addition of 1% of lime to the binder showed further improvement in reducing swelling. A good linear relationship is established between percent oedometer swell and modified free swell index (MFSI) for soil/binder mixtures without lime but the same has not been observed in the presence of lime. The compressibility characteristics of the soil/binder mixtures reduced nominally with increase in binder content but in the presence of lime, the compressibility reduced significantly. Binder used in this study has been found to be effective and economic to stabilise expansive soils with lesser amount of chemical additives such as lime.