河北沿海海侵灾害初探

文中以包含海进、海岸侵蚀和海水入侵的广义“海侵”概念,论述河北沿海地区海侵现状及其危害,探讨海侵产生的自然原因和人为活动的影响,在此基础上,评估海侵发展趋势。     

皇城—双塔断裂带的几何分段及运动学特征

在室内航,卫片解释及野外１：５万大比例尺活断层地质填图等专项研究的基础上,论证了１９２７年古浪８级大震主发震断裂皇城－双塔断裂带的几何分段及运动学特征。依据断层的几何特征,活动时期,活动强度可将该断裂带分为３段,分别为皇城盆地段（西段）、上寺段（中段）和冬青顶段（东段）。其中东段是古浪地震的发震段,与西段和中段相比,它具有活动时代新、活动强度大等特点,属全新世活动段。１９２７年古浪地震的发生与其特     

1927年古浪8级大震地表破裂特征及形成机制

野外考察结果表明,１９２７年古浪８级大地震造成了６段不同规模、不同方向、不同力学成因、不同等级的地表破裂,构成了呈面状分布的复杂地震破裂带,与我国西部地区由走滑断层运动形成的破裂带相比具有较大差异。其中的４段破裂与极震区及余震分布的位置相重合,主体散布在冬青顶北麓一带,沿皇城－双塔活动断裂的东段和武威－天祝活动断裂北段分布,是１９２７年古浪地震的主破裂带。其余两段分别分布在Ⅸ度区内的皇城－双塔断裂中段和西山堡－滴水崖断裂带上,是高烈度区内的次级破裂。４段主破裂是在统一构造应力场作用下形成的产物,具有统一变形机制。其中冬青顶张性破裂带是发育在山前下方寨－严家新庄逆断层上盘的次级张性破裂,而主破裂是由逆断层运动在寺儿沟滩等处的山前洪积台地上产生的     

三维地震数据的方位角时差校正及其应用

三维地震数据的同一共中心点道集是由不同方位角的地震道组成的。当地下地层倾斜时,共中心点道集的反射同相轴就存在方位角时差。本文根据方位角时差校正（ＡＭＯ）的基本原理,从ｆ－ｋ域的正、逆ＤＭＯ出发,通过稳相法得到积分法ＡＭＯ脉冲响应的时间、振幅因子公式。把ＡＭＯ应用于一束实际三维地震数据处理,经ＡＭＯ处理后的剖面绕射波和断面反射波得到了加强,其效果是令人满意的。     

Electro-connection marine corrosion test method and its application

Corrosion of marine steel constructions may vary to a considerable extent owing to their different locations such as atmosphere, splash zone, tidal zone, immersion zone and mud zone^{[7, 8]}. A rather lengthy hanging steel sample is needed to test its corrosion resistance in various environments. But it is cumbersome to handle and not convenient for frequent observation and maintenance. So an indoor analogue test method is generally adopted for this purpose^[1]. This paper is a report of such a test. Contribution No. 1333 from the Institute of Oceanology, Academia Sinica.     

Evaluation of radar and automatic weather station data assimilation for a heavy rainfall event in southern China

To improve the accuracy of short-term(0–12 h) forecasts of severe weather in southern China, a real-time storm-scale forecasting system, the Hourly Assimilation and Prediction System(HAPS), has been implemented in Shenzhen, China. The forecasting system is characterized by combining the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF-ARW)model and the Advanced Regional Prediction System(ARPS) three-dimensional variational data assimilation(3DVAR) package. It is capable of assimilating radar reflectivity and radial velocity data from multiple Doppler radars as well as surface automatic weather station(AWS) data. Experiments are designed to evaluate the impacts of data assimilation on quantitative precipitation forecasting(QPF) by studying a heavy rainfall event in southern China. The forecasts from these experiments are verified against radar, surface, and precipitation observations. Comparison of echo structure and accumulated precipitation suggests that radar data assimilation is useful in improving the short-term forecast by capturing the location and orientation of the band of accumulated rainfall. The assimilation of radar data improves the short-term precipitation forecast skill by up to9 hours by producing more convection. The slight but generally positive impact that surface AWS data has on the forecast of near-surface variables can last up to 6–9 hours. The assimilation of AWS observations alone has some benefit for improving the Fractions Skill Score(FSS) and bias scores; when radar data are assimilated, the additional AWS data may increase the degree of rainfall overprediction.     

基于作物系数与水分生产函数的向日葵产量预测

利用河套灌区向日葵2012年田间水分、分期播种试验数据和两个站点的农业气象历史资料,研究基于向日葵作物系数和水分生产函数的产量预测方法。结果表明:向日葵标准作物系数在生育期内的变化规律是前期小、中期大、后期小, 最高值为1.21, 出现在开花期。标准作物系数与出苗后日数和大于0℃积温有很好的二次和三次多项式关系,拟合优度在0.93以上。在分析相对叶面积指数和作物系数关系的基础上,提出标准作物系数的相对叶面积指数订正方法,得出河套灌区向日葵作物系数的动态计算式,为水分生产函数中实际蒸散量的计算提供支撑。建立以Jensen模型为基础的向日葵水分生产函数,得到对水分亏缺的敏感顺序从高到低是开花期、花序形成期、成熟期、苗期。综合应用向日葵作物系数方程和水分生产函数模型计算分期播种产量,与实际产量分别相差4.4%和4.1%,初步证明该文提出的方法对产量预测较为理想,在该地区具有很好的适用性。