Neural network and wavelet conjunction model for modelling monthly level fluctuations in Turkey

This paper proposes the application of a conjunction model (neuro‐wavelet) for forecasting monthly lake levels. The neuro‐wavelet (NW) conjunction model is improved combining two methods, discrete wavelet transform and artificial neural networks. The application of the methodology is presented for the Lake Van, which is the biggest lake in Turkey, and Lake Egirdir. The accuracy of the NW model is investigated for 1‐ and 6‐month‐ahead lake level forecasting. The root mean square errors, mean absolute relative errors and determination coefficient statistics are used for evaluating the accuracy of NW models. The results of the proposed models are compared with those of the neural networks. In the 1‐month‐ahead lake level forecasting, the NW conjunction model reduced the root mean square errors and mean absolute relative errors by 87–34% and 86–31% for the Van and Egirdir lakes, respectively. In the 6‐month‐ahead lake level forecasting, the NW conjunction model reduced the root mean square errors and mean absolute relative errors by 34–48% and 30‐46% for the Van and Egirdir lakes, respectively. The comparison results indicate that the suggested model could significantly increase the short‐ and long‐term forecast accuracy. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Anomalous X-ray pulsars: persistent states with fallback disks

The anomalous X-ray pulsar 4U 0142+61 was recently detected in the mid infrared bands with the SPITZER Observatory (Wang, Chakrabarty and Kaplan: Nature 440, 772 (2006)). This observation is the first instance for a disk around an AXP. From a reanalysis of optical and infrared data, we show that the observations indicate that the disk is likely to be an active disk rather than a passive dust disk beyond the light cylinder, as proposed in the discovering paper. Furthermore, we show that the irradiated accretion disk model can also account for all the optical and infrared observations of the anomalous X-ray pulsars in the persistent state.     

The H N method for Milne problem with polarization

The H _N method, employed for studies in neutron transport theory, is used to establish numerical results basic to the vector equation describing the transfer of polarized light in a Rayleigh scattering atmosphere with true absorption. The method has been applied to the classical Milne problem. The exit distribution is defined as a series in powers of the zenith observation angle. The numerical results are computed and compared with exact values obtained using the exit distribution in terms of the H-matrix. The numerical results are in good agreement with previously published findings.     

Study of a triple emission nebula in Orion

The Hii regions S254, 255 and 257 in the constellation of Orion are close together on the sky and appear like a triple object. Fabry-Pérot radial velocities of the Hii regions as well asUBV photo-electric magnitudes of their exciting stars are obtained. The data show that (1) all three nebulae are at a distance of 2.5 kpc; (2) an excess extinction is observed in S255 and S257 while S254 shows no excess extinction; (3) S255, identified as an IR and a molecular source, is the youngest object of the group. It is concluded that the three Hii regions are at different evolutionary stages.     

Changes in biodiversity of the extremely polluted Golden Horn Estuary following the improvements in water quality

Long-term biological data supported by physicochemical parameters were evaluated to investigate the biodiversity of the Golden Horn Estuary from the past to the present. Limited observations dating back to 60 years ago indicated the existence of a diverse community in this small estuary. Unfortunately, in parallel with the increase in unplanned settlements and industry around the Golden Horn, pollution stress increased since the 1960s. Preliminary studies in the 1990s indicated survival of only a couple of pollution-resistant species, in the relatively cleaner lower estuary. Following the intensification of rehabilitation studies in 1998 and particularly after the opening of the floating bridge at the mid estuary; a remarkable day-by-day recovery in marine life has begun with the improving water quality. Nutrient concentrations decreased markedly; while water clarity significantly increased. Fecal coliform values decreased 10(3) fold. Phytoplankton composition changed and dense blooms of eukaryotic phytoplankters frequently occurred. Hydrogen sulfide almost completely disappeared even during the warmest periods of the year and dissolved oxygen concentrations increased. All results clearly depicted that the Golden Horn ecosystem shifted to eutrophic conditions from an anoxic environment. SCUBA dives in 2002, documented the level of diversification of life in the Golden Horn. All appropriate substratums were intensely covered by macrobenthic forms until the Halic Bridge and filter feeders dominated the plankton-rich ecosystem. Achieving the diversity of 1940s is not possible since the Black and Marmara seas, influencing water quality of the Golden Horn, are also suffering from anthropogenic impacts and are far less diverse than their rich diversity in 1940s. However, the Golden Horn is a good example that even the most polluted ecosystems can recover when appropriate measures are taken.     

Estimation of relative humidity based on artificial neural network approach in the Aegean Region of Turkey

The aim of this study is to estimate the monthly mean relative humidity (MRH) values in the Aegean Region of Turkey with the help of the topographical and meteorological parameters based on artificial neural network (ANN) approach. The monthly MRH values were calculated from the measurement in the meteorological observing stations established in Izmir, Mugla, Aydin, Denizli, Usak, Manisa, Kutahya and Afyonkarahisar provinces between 2000 and 2006. Latitude, longitude, altitude, precipitation and months of the year were used in the input layer of the ANN network, while the MRH was used in output layer of the network. The ANN model was developed using MATLAB software, and then actual values were compared with those obtained by ANN and multi-linear regression methods. It seemed that the obtained values were in the acceptable error limits. It is concluded that the determination of relative humidity values is possible at any target point of the region where the measurement cannot be performed.     

Climate change in Turkey for the last half century

Climate change and its urban-induced bias in selected Turkish cities is studied with a quality controlled temperature and precipitation data of Turkish stations in the period of 1950–2004. These stations are classified into two groups according to their populations; S1, including rural and suburban stations and S2, including large urban stations. Moving average signals, 365-day, and their digital low pass filtered versions are produced to eliminate the short term fluctuations and examine the possible trends or anomalies in climate data. Furthermore, ‘relative difference’ signals are introduced and applied to temperature and precipitation series to observe the actual local changes in the climate data independent from large-scale effects. Mann–Kendall test statistics are calculated for maximum, minimum, mean temperature and precipitation series and plotted on maps to determine any spatial trend patterns. Signal analysis show a cool period extending from early 1960s till 1993, generally with the lowest temperature values on 1992–1993 owing to the eruption of Mount Pinatubo. A last decade significant warming trend is observed in both of the series, S1 and S2, leading to 2000–2002 temperatures to be recorded as maximums in record history. The variability of urban precipitation series is generally larger than the rural ones, suggesting that urban stations can experience more frequent and severe droughts and floods. Though not significant, an increase in the urban precipitation compared to the rural one is also found. Spatial analysis resulted in significant warming in southern and southeastern parts of the country. Particularly, minimum temperature series show significant warming in almost all of the regions indicating the effect of urbanization. Significant decreases of precipitation amounts in the western parts of Turkey, such as Aegean and Trachea regions, are found. On the other hand, some Turkish northern stations show increases in precipitation of which some are significant.     

Exact solution to the relative orbital motion in eccentric orbits

This paper studies the relative orbital motion between arbitrary Keplerian trajectories. A closed-form vectorial solution to the nonlinear initial value problem that models this type of motion with respect to a noninertial reference frame is offered. Without imposing any particular conditions on the leader or the deputy satellites trajectories, exact expressions for the relative law of motion and relative velocity are obtained in a closed form. This solution allows the parameterization of the relative motion manifold and offers new methods to study its geometrical and topological properties. The result presented in this paper opens the way to obtain new classes of approximate solutions to the equations of relative motion with time, an eccentric or true anomaly as independent variables. Published in Russian in Solar System Research, 2009, Vol. 43, No. 1, pp. 44–55. The text was submitted by the autors in English.     

Hydrocarbons generated by hydropyrolysis of suspended marine particulate organic matter: Relationship to the oceanography of the Black Sea and the Rhodes Gyre

The suspended particulate organic matter, SPOM, in the autumnal Black Sea has been characterised using catalytic hydropyrolysis (HyPy) of the total (bound plus free) lipid material. The technique, which generates maximum yields of volatile products from sediments, kerogens and phytoplankton, was followed using gas chromatography and gas chromatography/mass spectrometry. The generated alkanes were dominated by n-C₁₈, hypothesised to arise predominantly from unsaturated C₁₈ fatty acids. Steranes were generated from reductive conversion of free and bound sterols. The generation of branched alkanes and especially of hopanes provided formal evidence for the participation of bacteria in the mineralisation of the SPOM. Whereas similar distributions of n-alkanes were generated from SPOM sampled from different depths of the comparatively well-stirred Rhodes Gyre (eastern Mediterranean), mineralisation of the SPOM at each depth of the central Black Sea produced characteristic changes in the composition and concentration of the HyPy products. Depth profiles of the n-alkanes generated from SPOM in the region of the Rim Current were affected by the local hydrography. Polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) of anthropogenic origin were present in the surface waters of the central Black Sea. Some methyl benzenes, thiophenes and pyrroles were also generated.