Evidence of NW extension of the North Anatolian Fault Zone in the Marmara Sea: a new interpretation of the Marmara Sea (İzmit) earthquake on 17 August 1999

Active faults aligning in NW–SE direction and forming flower structures of strike-slip faults were observed in shallow seismic data from the shelf offshore of Avc?lar in the northern Marmara Sea. By following the parallel drainage pattern and scarps, these faults were traced as NW–SE-directed lineaments in the morphology of the northern onshore sector of the Marmara Sea (eastern Thrace Peninsula). Right-lateral displacements in two watersheds of drainage and on the coast of the Marmara Sea and Black Sea are associated with these lineaments. This right-lateral displacement along the course of these faults suggests a new, active strike-slip fault zone located at the NW extension of the northern boundary fault of the Ç?narc?k Basin in the Marmara Sea. This new fault zone is interpreted as the NW extension of the northern branch of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ), extending from the Ç?narc?k Basin of the Marmara Sea to the Black Sea coast of the Thrace Peninsula, and passing through B üy ük çekmece and K ü ç ük çekmece lagoons. These data suggest that the rupture of the 17 August 1999 earthquake in the NAFZ may have extended through Avc?lar. Indeed, Avc?lar and ?zmit, both located on the Marmara Sea coast along the rupture route, were strongly struck by the earthquake whereas the settlements between Avc?lar and ?zmit were much less affected. Therefore, this interpretation can explain the extraordinary damage in Avc?lar, based on the newly discovered rupture of the NAFZ in the Marmara Sea. However, this suggestion needs to be confirmed by further seismological studies.     

Neural network and wavelet conjunction model for modelling monthly level fluctuations in Turkey

This paper proposes the application of a conjunction model (neuro‐wavelet) for forecasting monthly lake levels. The neuro‐wavelet (NW) conjunction model is improved combining two methods, discrete wavelet transform and artificial neural networks. The application of the methodology is presented for the Lake Van, which is the biggest lake in Turkey, and Lake Egirdir. The accuracy of the NW model is investigated for 1‐ and 6‐month‐ahead lake level forecasting. The root mean square errors, mean absolute relative errors and determination coefficient statistics are used for evaluating the accuracy of NW models. The results of the proposed models are compared with those of the neural networks. In the 1‐month‐ahead lake level forecasting, the NW conjunction model reduced the root mean square errors and mean absolute relative errors by 87–34% and 86–31% for the Van and Egirdir lakes, respectively. In the 6‐month‐ahead lake level forecasting, the NW conjunction model reduced the root mean square errors and mean absolute relative errors by 34–48% and 30‐46% for the Van and Egirdir lakes, respectively. The comparison results indicate that the suggested model could significantly increase the short‐ and long‐term forecast accuracy. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Anomalous X-ray pulsars: persistent states with fallback disks

The anomalous X-ray pulsar 4U 0142+61 was recently detected in the mid infrared bands with the SPITZER Observatory (Wang, Chakrabarty and Kaplan: Nature 440, 772 (2006)). This observation is the first instance for a disk around an AXP. From a reanalysis of optical and infrared data, we show that the observations indicate that the disk is likely to be an active disk rather than a passive dust disk beyond the light cylinder, as proposed in the discovering paper. Furthermore, we show that the irradiated accretion disk model can also account for all the optical and infrared observations of the anomalous X-ray pulsars in the persistent state.     

The H N method for Milne problem with polarization

The H _N method, employed for studies in neutron transport theory, is used to establish numerical results basic to the vector equation describing the transfer of polarized light in a Rayleigh scattering atmosphere with true absorption. The method has been applied to the classical Milne problem. The exit distribution is defined as a series in powers of the zenith observation angle. The numerical results are computed and compared with exact values obtained using the exit distribution in terms of the H-matrix. The numerical results are in good agreement with previously published findings.     

A rapid seismic safety assessment method for mid-rise reinforced concrete buildings

The majority of existing buildings are not safe against earthquakes in most of the developing countries. Existing building stocks should be assessed with a seismic safety assessment method before a devastating earthquake. Cheaper and quicker rapid seismic safety assessment methods can be used instead of code-based assessment methods to determine the seismic performance of existing buildings. In this study, an approach was introduced to determine the seismic performance of existing mid-rise reinforced concrete buildings with fewer parameters and process steps than code-based detailed assessment procedures. Calibration and regulation of the introduced method were conducted on the 39 collapsed buildings’ projects in 1999 Kocaeli, Turkey, earthquake. Finally, 55 existing buildings located in Eskisehir, Turkey, assessed with this calibrated method and the results were compared with the results of a code-based detailed assessment method; the results showed a very good agreement of about 83%. This study shows that the proposed method can be applied for the determination of the seismic performance of existing mid-rise reinforced concrete buildings quickly and without compromising reliability.     

Changes in biodiversity of the extremely polluted Golden Horn Estuary following the improvements in water quality

Long-term biological data supported by physicochemical parameters were evaluated to investigate the biodiversity of the Golden Horn Estuary from the past to the present. Limited observations dating back to 60 years ago indicated the existence of a diverse community in this small estuary. Unfortunately, in parallel with the increase in unplanned settlements and industry around the Golden Horn, pollution stress increased since the 1960s. Preliminary studies in the 1990s indicated survival of only a couple of pollution-resistant species, in the relatively cleaner lower estuary. Following the intensification of rehabilitation studies in 1998 and particularly after the opening of the floating bridge at the mid estuary; a remarkable day-by-day recovery in marine life has begun with the improving water quality. Nutrient concentrations decreased markedly; while water clarity significantly increased. Fecal coliform values decreased 10(3) fold. Phytoplankton composition changed and dense blooms of eukaryotic phytoplankters frequently occurred. Hydrogen sulfide almost completely disappeared even during the warmest periods of the year and dissolved oxygen concentrations increased. All results clearly depicted that the Golden Horn ecosystem shifted to eutrophic conditions from an anoxic environment. SCUBA dives in 2002, documented the level of diversification of life in the Golden Horn. All appropriate substratums were intensely covered by macrobenthic forms until the Halic Bridge and filter feeders dominated the plankton-rich ecosystem. Achieving the diversity of 1940s is not possible since the Black and Marmara seas, influencing water quality of the Golden Horn, are also suffering from anthropogenic impacts and are far less diverse than their rich diversity in 1940s. However, the Golden Horn is a good example that even the most polluted ecosystems can recover when appropriate measures are taken.     

The characteristics of the chemical flow within the Motru catchment area, south — west Romania

The present paper, with reference to the Motru catchment area, contributes to the hydrochemical studies at an international level and to the completion of the characteristics regarding the chemical flow in Romania. In this regard, it emphasizes once again the dependence between the content of dissolved salts (fixed residue — mg/l) on the one hand and the lithological conditions, human activity, flow and the surface of the catchments on the other hand. The calculation and the analysis of the chemical flow for the Motru catchment area (located in the south-west of Romania) was performed on the basis of two parameters: the average flow of dissolved chemical substances (mg/s) and specific average chemical flow (t/kmp year) recorded at the monitoring stations on the Motru River and its tributaries during the period 2005–2009. The values obtained (for example: 2.63 mg/s and 47.7 t/km² year, at the Fata Motrului station, on the Motru River, in 2009) confirm the importance of the areal factors of natural background in the analysis of chemical flow as a morpho-dynamic process and implicitly for the chemical quality of surface waters.     

Middle Pleistocene bivalves of the İznik lake basin (Eastern Marmara, NW Turkey) and a new paleobiogeographical approach

?znik Lake is a tectonically originated basin mainly controlled by the E–W trending middle strand of the North Anatolian Fault (NAF) system. Pleistocene sediments occurring in front of the faults are well exposed both in the northern and in the southern shorelines of the basin. In this study, two endemic brackish water bivalve species, Didacna subpyramidata Pravoslavkev 1939 and Didacna nov. sp. were found in the oldest terrace of the northern Pleistocene sequence. Having characterized morphology, these species serve as stratigraphic indicators in the regional Pleistocene stratigraphy of the Ponto-Caspian region, and thus are well correlated to the assemblages of the early Khazarian subhorizon (Middle Pleistocene). Hence, these data demonstrate that the early Khazarian brackish water sea covered the study area. Additionally, a model for the formation of the basin is proposed: the ?znik lake basin was a gulf of the former Marmara Sea in the early Khazarian, connecting the Marmara to the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea. The subsequent regional prograding uplifts, main dextral strike-slip fault and many normal faults of the NAF Zone cut off the marine connections to the basin, leading to its present location and topographic level.     

Hydrogeophysical modelling of Hisarcik (Kütahya) geothermal field,western Turkey

Western Anatolia hosts many low-to-moderate and high-temperature geothermal sources in which active faults play a dominant role to control the recharge and the discharge of geothermal fluid. In this study, we used the two-dimensional geoelectric structure of Kütahya Hisarcık geothermal field, and created a conceptual hydrogeophysical model that includes faults, real topographical variations and geological units. The temperature distribution and fluid flow pattern are also investigated. The depth extension of Hisarcık Fault, electrical basement and low resistivity anomalies related to the presence of geothermal fluid are determined by using resistivity studies in the area. Numerical simulations suggest that Hisarcık fault functioning as a fluid conduit primarily enables hot fluid to be transported from depth to the surface. It is shown that the locations of predicted outflow vents coincide with those of hot springs in the area.